Regional GDP in the UK, 1861–1911: new estimates

This article compares the Geary–Stark method for distributing known GDP totals across regions with a variation suggested by Crafts. Tests of the Geary–Stark method confirm that it generates accurate estimates of regional GDP. There are practical and conceptual problems with Crafts' extension, and it is not tested nor is it testable. New estimates of regional GDP for the period 1861 to 1911 contradict Crafts's suggestion of rising regional inequality. Purchasing power parity adjustments do not alter this trend. The new estimates confirm Ireland's post‐Famine catch‐up. The great bulk of Irish labour productivity growth can be accounted for by an upward shifting production function, though it can be argued that that portion of growth that represents catch‐up may be attributable to labour force decline.     

Land productivity,farm size and returns to scale in Pakistan agriculture

It is by now a commonly accepted proposition that economic development must involve both growth and equity. That in many countries the subsidization of the owners of large farms is inequitable is also acknowledged. However, the debate on the ‘efficiency’ of large versus small farms continues. If the owners of large farms are not using the crop acreage with greater efficiency than are the small farmers and if there are no economies of scale, then the imposition of ceilings on farm size and land redistribution are clearly the right options to consider.The object of this study is to test two hypotheses. First, there is an inverse relationship between land productivity and farm size. Second, there are no economies of scale in agricultural production. The tests are performed by regression analysis on the farm-level data collected from Pakistan by the author in 1974. The merit of this study is that it deals with a country which, with a few other underdeveloped countries, has been a beneficiary of the ‘Green Revolution’. The available studies on Pakistan agriculture are limited to the aggregate analyses. Interregional micro-level studies are almost non-existent.     

Increasing returns and economic growth: some evidence for manufacturing from the European Union regions: a correction

There was an error in the specification of the regression equation(23) (p.100) in the original paper of Fingleton and McCombie(1998), although it does not greatly alter any of the estimatedcoefficients of interest.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China: OLS and the instrumental variables approach

This paper examines economic returns to schooling in urban China using ordinary least square (OLS) and instrumental variable (IV) methodologies. First, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education are lower in China than in other transition economies, whereas IV estimates are higher in China. Second, we find that OLS, a method for estimating the returns to education without control for endogeneity bias, may underestimate the true rates of return for men. In addition, if we do not control for endogeneity bias and the sample selection bias, we may further underestimate the true rates of return for women. Finally, we find that OLS estimates of the returns to education for men are slightly higher than for women. The IV estimates for women are higher than those for men, and this difference increases after correcting for selectivity biases.     

The sources of unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: evidence from a panel of regions and demographic groups

We analyze the determinants of Canadian unemployment in a frameworkincorporating demand and supply-side variables: the interestrate, taxation, foreign activity, minimum wages, union density,demographic pressure, unemployment insurance, terms of trade.The model is estimated with 500 observations for five Canadianregions and four demographic groups, 1967-91. We provide a comprehensivepicture of the macroeconomic and structural causes of unemploymentwith data combining the advantages of macroeconomic time seriesand microeconomic cross sections. The long-term rise in Canadianunemployment since 1960 is attributed to higher real interestrates, the UI reform of 1972, and slightly adverse net demographicpressure.     

Stock returns and investment trust flows in the Japanese financial market: A system approach

To study dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and investment trust flows in Japan, we employ a system method which utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. The empirical evidence from SURECM, and Granger (1969) and Sims (1972) causality tests in the system method indicates that investment trust flows are weakly exogenous and stock returns cause net fund flows, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run. Thus, our findings do not support the popular notion of mutual fund flows as a driving force behind rallies in Japanese financial markets.     

A methodological note on detecting a location shift in the distribution of abnormal returns: A nonparametric approach

Abstract. The distribution of market model residuals or other measures of prediction errors is skewed and leptokurtic. To detect a location shift in leptokurtic residuals, a nonparametric rank test may be more efficient than a parametric t-test. Event studies that use a nonparametric test generally use the sign test, the Wilcoxon test, or some variation of the Wilcoxon test. The sign and Wilcoxon test statistics are calculated from the event-period residuals, so skewness and potential cross-sectional dependencies are not accounted for, causing a concern about the reliability of these tests for event studies. In this paper we propose a Mann-Whitney (MW) rank statistic in which the rank of the event-period residual is calculated relative to the estimation-period residuals. The MW statistic is a nonparametric analogue of the standardized residual (the residual scaled by its estimated standard deviation) used in the parametric (Patell-type) t-test. The MW statistics enable us to account correctly for skewness as well as potential cross-sectional correlation, and they are more powerful than the sign, Wilcoxon, and standardized residual statistics in detecting a location shift in leptokurtic residuals. Our results are based on a Monte Carlo study of simulated residuals. We simulate cross-sectionally independent residuals (for noncontemporaneous events) and cross-sectionally correlated residuals (for contemporaneous events). Résumé. La distribution des résidus du modèle du marché ou d'autres mesures des erreurs prévisionnelles est asymétrique et leptocurtique. Un test de rang non paramétrique peut être plus efficace qu'un test t paramétrique dans la détection d'un déplacement dans les résidus leptocurtiques. Les études événementielles basées sur un test non paramétrique ont généralement recours au test des signes, au test de Wilcoxon ou à une variante du test de Wilcoxon. Les statistiques du test des signes et du test de Wilcoxon sont calculées à partir des résidus événement-période, de sorte que l'asymétrie et les dépendances transversales possibles ne sont pas prises en compte, ce qui occasionne un problème de fiabilité des tests en ce qui a trait à l'étude événementielle. Dans le présent document, les auteurs proposent une statistique de rang Mann-Whitney (MW) dans laquelle le rang des résidus événement-période est calculé par rapport aux résidus estimation-période. La statistique MW est l'équivalent non paramétrique du résidu normé (soit du résidu pondéré en fonction de son écart-type estimé) utilisé dans le test paramétrique du t (de type Patell). Les statistiques MW nous permettent de tenir compte de façon exacte de l'asymétrie ainsi que de la corrélation transversale possible, tout en étant plus puissantes que les statistiques des signes, de Wilcoxon et des résidus normés dans la détermination d'un déplacement dans les résidus leptocurtiques. Les résultats obtenus par les auteurs sont basés sur une étude de Monte Carlo des résidus? simulés. Ils simulent des résidus transversalement indépendants (pour des événements non simultanés) et des résidus transversalement corrélés (pour des événements simultanés).     

A fractional cointegration approach to empirical tests of PPP: New evidence and methodological implications from an application to the Taiwan/US dollar relationship

A Fractional Cointegration Approach to Empirical Tests of PPP: New Evidence and Methodological Implications from an Application to the Taiwan/ US Dollar Relationship. —This paper applies a relatively new concept of fractional cointegration to shed some light on the validity of purchasing power parity as a long-run equilibrium condition, using the Taiwan/US dollar exchange rate. Findings suggest that, while standard tests of cointegration fail to support cointegration between nominal exchange rates, domestic and foreign prices, the fractional cointegration analysis permits deviations from equilibrium to follow a fractionally integrated process and hence captures a much wider class of parity or mean-reversion behaviour. The paper concludes by indicating areas in which fractional cointegration will be a particularly appropriate technique to unearth previously unfounded temporal characteristics.     

Productivity, efficiency, scale economies and technical change: A new decomposition analysis of TFP applied to the Japanese prefectures

This paper aims to examine the productivity change of the Japanese economy using the data pertaining to the 47 prefectures during the period 1981–2000. The decomposition analysis of the Hicks–Moorsteen–Bjurek productivity index is conducted to explore the sources of the productivity change. In summary, technical change and efficiency change are two of the most important components driving procyclical productivity. We find that relative their importance varies over periods. Supply shocks captured by technical change component caused upturns in productivity in the mid and late 1980s and in 1999 and 2000. Supply shocks also caused downturns in the early and mid 1990s. On the other hand, demand shocks captured by efficiency change component drove upturns of productivity in 1984, 1990 and 1996, when supply shocks were not detected. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 617–634.     

Jobs for the skilled: how technology, trade and domestic demand changed the structure of UK employment, 1979-90

A new method is developed for allocating the changing use ofskills among final demand growth, trade and technological change.In a multi-sector framework the skills content of intermediateand capital goods purchased is captured through input-outputdata. Technological change is measured through the changinguse of labour, within the sector and in its purchased inputs.Three skill levels are identified from detailed occupations.Domestic demand growth (employment-creating) and technologicalchange (labour-saving) both show marked skill-bias. The effectsof trade are small. Most strikingly, the services sector generateshigh-skilled even more than low-skilled jobs, and new employmentthrough supply chains.     

我国行业协会的治理及其完善——基于经济法视角的分析

随着社会主义市场经济体制的发展以及社会经济体制改革的深入,行业协会开始发挥着越来越重要的作用。经济法是以社会为本位的法律,它是私法与公法相融合的产物,追求真正意义上的公平、正义、自由。行业协会与经济法的本质不谋而合。但目前我国的行业协会治理中存在着一些问题,影响了其功能的正常发挥。我国应在借鉴国外经验的基础上完善相关立法,明确行业协会的地位性质,以展现其独立市场主体的本质。文章通过对国内外文献的梳理,探寻在经济法视角下我国行业协会的治理和完善的具体建议。     

Illegitimacy,paternal financial responsibility,and the 1834 Poor Law Commission Report: the myth of the old poor law and the making of the new

The new poor law's bastardy clauses were amongst the most contested of the 1834 Act, and their unpopularity led to their (partial) reversal by 1844. The issue of paternal financial responsibility for the maintenance of illegitimate children was central to the reforms, and this article uses the Rural and Town Queries to show how parishes could enforce this responsibility effectively. This evidence could have been used as an alternative model of reform; instead, the Poor Law Commissioners misrepresented the operation of the law and recommended the abolition of affiliation. Rooted in the writings of Malthus, their proposals proved ultimately impracticable.     

The circulating medium of exchange in colonial Pennsylvania, 1729–1775: new estimates of monetary composition, performance, and economic growth

Market transaction data are used to estimate the quantity of specie in circulation. This estimate is used to provide the first comprehensive measure of a colony's money supply and, along with data on population and prices, to retest the quantity theory of money and measure output growth using the equation of exchange. Output growth is found to depend on periodization and the extent that rising commercialization increased the velocity of circulation. Specie was becoming relatively less scarce as the Revolution approached, and movements in specie and paper currency both offset and reinforced each other depending on the period of analysis. (JEL N11, N21, E42, E51)     

Measuring economic impact in Korea,Japan, India,China, and ASEAN considering agricultural sectors: a dynamic CGE approach based on GAMS

Review of World Economics - Tariff removal has always a positive impact on increasing trade between countries. Trade liberalization always leads to an expansion in intraregional and interregional...