能源消费与经济增长的协整分析:以新疆为例

本文利用新疆1978～2010年的年度数据,采用协整分析理论对新疆能源消费和经济增长之间Granger因果关系进行实证分析。结果表明新疆经济增长与能源消费之间存在长期协整关系,并存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,即能源消费每增加1%,GDP将增加0.781273%,提高能源效率是新疆经济可持续发展的必然选择。     

行业R&D强度视角下中国进口贸易的技术溢出效应

本文利用1995~2010年间占中国进口贸易份额较大的13个发达国家和13个发展中国家的R&D数据和行业贸易数据,并用DEA法分析了中国进口贸易带来的各行业全要素生产率的变化。文章在得到发达国家R&D资本通过进口贸易促进了我国行业全要素生产率增长和技术进步这一基本结论的基础上发现,发展中国家对我国全要素生产率增长和技术进步有正向技术溢出效应,但发达国家和发展中国家对我国行业技术效率都有负向溢出效应,且中国在与发展中国家贸易时,高R&D强度行业的溢出效应明显高于低R&D强度行业。这说明,我国应该在继续扩大与发达国家和发展中国家贸易的同时,更要重视自己国家内部对进口产品所附带高新技术的消化吸收及二次创新,重视自身R&D投入水平的提高,优化资金投入结构和使用效率,促使技术效率提高。     

基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省能源消费碳排放影响因素分析

依据甘肃省1995—2012年的统计数据,在估算能源消费碳排放量的基础上,运用STIRPAT模型分析了人口数量、老龄化率、城市化率等人口因素,人均GDP、居民消费水平等经济因素和能耗强度与产业结构等技术因素对能源消费碳排放的影响,结果表明:(1)甘肃省能源消费的碳排放量呈波动上升态势;(2)人口城市化对能源消费碳排放的影响最为显著;(3)居民消费水平的提高是甘肃省能源消费碳排放的第二大驱动因素;(4)产业结构是影响甘肃省能源消费碳排放的第三大因素;(5)能耗强度尽管对碳排放具有一定的抑制作用,但效果并不显著。     

福建省能源碳足迹生态压力研究

采用IPCC计算方法,定量分析了2005-2014年福建省能源消费碳足迹及其生态压力的变化,并就碳足迹生态压力与人均GDP进行脱钩分析。结果显示：该期间福建省能源碳足迹从6452050.50hm2增加至13607640.16hm2,增加了110.90%,整体是迅速上升的趋势。从能源碳足迹结构比例来看还是以化石能源为主。生态压力也保持增长趋势,增长2.11倍。碳足迹生态压力与人均GDP之间主要呈现弱脱钩的关系,对此提出了合理调整能源结构、提高能源利用率等对策建议。     

我国居民生活能源消费量的影响因素分析

文章建立了我国居民人均生活用能量与其影响因素之间的VAR模型,对其进行Johansen协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验,并以江苏省居民人均生活用能影响因素实证分析为例,进行补充检验分析。结果表明,人均消费支出的增长、人均生活能源消费结构的变化与生活能源消费量之间存在长期的协整关系,并且二者均是人均生活能源消费量变化的格兰杰原因。其中,人均消费支出存在较明显正效应,随着人均消费支出的增加,人均生活能源消费量会有所增长,但增长速度缓于实际消费支出的增加;人均生活能源消费结构的影响作用较弱,随着煤炭占比的减小,电力、天然气等高品质能源的消费量将不断增加,总体能效水平也将有所提升。     

环境污染、能源消费与经济增长

在控制了资本和劳动力变量的基础上,构建了多变量VAR模型,考察了1989—2009中国及分区域在环境污染、能源消费和经济增长之间的动态因果关系。结果表明：对全国来说,分别存在从环境污染到经济增长、从环境污染到能源消费以及从能源消费到经济增长的三个单向因果关系。分区域看,东部沿海地区存在从经济增长到能源消费和从环境污染到能源消费的单向因果关系,环境污染和人均实际GDP之间不存在因果关系;中部地区存在从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,环境污染和经济增长之间以及环境污染和能源消费之间存在双向因果关系;西部地区显示能源消费与经济增长之间不存在因果关系,但存在环境污染和能源消费的双向因果关系和从经济增长到环境污染的单向因果关系。此外,实证结果表明能源消费与经济增长关系的假说一中性假说、增长性假说和保护性假说在东部、中部和西部地区依次成立,即支持了本文所构建的基于EKC的环境污染、能源消费与经济增长分析框架。     

可再生能源消费影响经济增长吗?——基于欧盟的实证研究

文章基于面板向量自回归(PVAR)模型研究欧盟可再生能源消费与经济增长之间的动态关系,实证检验不同情景下可再生能源消费增长对GDP增长的动态冲击效应。研究表明:欧盟可再生能源消费增长有利于减少CO2排放,但牺牲了经济增长;2008年前后可再生能源消费增长的经济代价存在差异,2008年前可再生能源消费增长对经济增长的负向影响更大;不同经济发展水平成员国的可再生能源消费增长对经济增长的影响呈现相反方向,人均GDP较高成员国的可再生能源消费增长对经济增长为正向影响;不同行业可再生能源消费增长对经济增长的影响存在差异,服务业的可再生能源消费增长对经济增长为正向影响;不同类型可再生能源消费增长对经济增长的影响不同,风能消费增长对经济增长为正向影响。研究结果可以更好地厘清在不同条件下可再生能源消费增长对经济增长的影响,为中国实现2030年可再生能源消费占比达到20%的政策目标提供理论指导和政策依据。     

能源效率与节能潜力的国际比较——以中国与OECD国家为例

本文基于超效率DEA方法,利用1995～2007年中国与10个OECD国家的要素投入、经济产出数据,分别测算出各国在该时期内的全要素能源效率和节能潜力。结果表明:(1)如果采用能源强度指标,中国能源利用效率可能会被低估,而全要素能源效率指标可以更全面、合理地反映出产业结构变动和技术水平变化对能源效率的影响。(2)中国全要素能源效率逐年提高,节能潜力逐年降低,与发达国家的差距正趋于缩小。(3)知识投入对于能源效率的提高有很强的推动作用。     

扩大内需的最大障碍在哪里?

中国人喜欢攒钱。据《中国统计年鉴》的数据可知,中国储蓄率从2000年的37.6%提高到2011年的51.8%,并一直维持在较高水平,明显高于发展水平相近的发展中国家,更高于发达国家。而消费(尤其是国内消费)却一路下滑,其在GDP占比从2000年的62.3%下降到了2011年的49.1%。2012年,社会消费品零售总额207167亿元,增速比上年同期回落了2.8个百分点。为什么我国消费增长总比储蓄跑得慢呢?     

广东省能源消费与经济增长关系的实证分析

本文以广东省1985～2008年能源消费与GDP的数据为基础,运用协整分析方法和Granger因果检验方法对二者之间的关系进行实证分析。研究发现广东省能源消费与GDP在短期内存在波动关系,而从长期来看,它们之间存在着稳定的均衡关系,并且是从能源消费到GDP的单向因果关系。最后,本文就广东省的能源消费以及经济增长提出了相关政策建议。     

Revisiting Growth‐Poverty Relationship: A Medium‐Term Causality Approach

This article examines the potential medium‐term causal relationship between changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and poverty in developing countries during the 1970s–1990s. For this purpose, we use panel data model evaluation techniques to test the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of competing models. We conclude that the evidence supports the hypothesis that increases in GDP per capita cause unidirectional poverty reduction, measured by the $1/day poverty rate, in the period 1970s–1980s. The results are similar when analysing low‐ and middle‐income countries and mid‐high‐ and very high‐inequality countries separately. However, in the period 1980s–1990s, it is only statistically significant for low‐income countries.     

Heterogeneous effects of bilateral investment treaties

Bilateral investment treaties (BITs) are an increasingly used policy instrument to encourage FDI inflows, particularly inflows into developing countries. In this paper we estimate a gravity model of FDI flows from a sample of OECD countries to a broader sample of developing economies, examining the impact of BITs on these flows. BITs are signed between highly heterogeneous country-pairs, with important differences found in terms of the institutional and economic distance between BIT signatories. These differences may help explain the mixed results on the effects of BITs on FDI flows in the existing literature, with our exploration of non-linearities in this relationship suggesting that the effects of BITs are increasing in the difference in GDP and GDP per capita between source and host. BITs appear to have no impact upon FDI flows for country-pairs that are too dissimilar in terms of the strength of their political institutions.     

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP-based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

This article uses expenditure-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) to estimate GDP per capita in comparable prices for 12 Asian countries for six benchmark years during the period 1913–69. The article finds that in 1913 levels of real GDP per capita in several countries were comparable to those in Japan. GDP per capita in Japan and other Asian countries diverged during and after the First World War. The article questions whether Asia's ‘little divergence’ between Japan and other Asian countries dates back to the late eighteenth century. It draws attention to the different resource endowments of Japan, China, and India compared to other Asian countries, and their implications for the development trajectories of Asian countries. The article demonstrates that using historical PPP estimates yields estimates of GDP per capita that diverge from those based on retropolations of the single 1990 PPP-converted benchmark year. It concludes that historical estimates of PPPs are needed to confirm analyses of comparative economic performance based on available GDP per capita data.     

发达国家人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的特征、做法与启示

随着改革开放的不断深入,我国经济发展进入新的阶段,北京、上海、浙江等一些经济发达省市人均GDP率先跨过5000美元重要关口,今后一个时期还会有更多的省市跨越这一关口,因此研究人均GDP5000美元后发达国家经济发展经验对我国经济进一步发展意义重大。基于这种考虑,本文笔者收集美、日、英等经济发达国家有关经济数据,总结他们在人均GDP5000美元后的经济发展特征及其主要做法,并思考提出了我国人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的几点启示。     

Recent Political Change in Myanmar and Its Impact on her Economic Growth

The present study estimates the causal effect of a process of political change, namely, a recent constitutional referendum, on economic growth in Myanmar. To analyze the impact of this process, this study compares the trajectories of actual and counterfactual GDP per capita after the referendum using the synthetic control method. We calculate the counterfactual GDP per capita using country‐level panel data from 2002 to 2013, with Myanmar as the treated country and a set of developing countries in East and South Asia, the Pacific and sub‐Saharan Africa as the control group. The results of the synthetic analysis suggest that the recent process of political change in Myanmar had a positive and significant effect on GDP per capita but not on per capita foreign direct investment or trade.     

Serbia on the path to modern economic growth

Given the scanty and inadequate studies on Serbia's growth performance before the First World War, this paper presents production-side GDP estimates for Serbia for six years between 1867 and 1910. It probes into the growth dynamics, assessing convergence with the more developed countries of north-western Europe, as well as progress towards achieving modern economic growth. Although the economy showed some dynamism in terms of overall GDP, per capita GDP in pre-First World War Serbia grew by only 0.28 per cent per annum, as much of the overall GDP growth was eroded by rapid population growth. Far from converging with north-western Europe, Serbia continued to fall behind. Sluggish structural transformation and slow income per capita growth suggest that Serbia's transition to modern economic growth was in its infancy. Growth in the dominant agricultural sector was extensive, driven by expanding arable land and population growth. Land was affordable and easy to obtain; hence, peasants invested little in new technologies. Meanwhile, the modern industrial and service sectors were below a threshold that could sustain rapid growth. Nevertheless, this study also highlights the rapid expansion of a small modern sector and export diversification that reflected emergent ‘green shoots’ in 1905–10.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Developing Countries: Multi-Period Evidence Under the Current Float

Using panel unit root tests, we examine purchasing power parity (PPP) for US dollar real exchange rates of developing countries during the current floating rate period. Since evidence of PPP may vary from period to period, we examine the data for moving 10-year periods from 1976–85 up to 1990–99. We organize panels based on country characteristics influencing the validity of PPP. Those characteristics include openness, inflation, and the level and growth rate of per capita GDP. Although we find stronger evidence of PPP after 1980, our examination of panel data over 15 10-year periods yields only limited support for PPP.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

Are Real GDP Levels Stationary in African Countries?

In this study, we apply flexible Fourier stationary unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (2012) to assess the non‐stationary properties of the per capita real gross domestic product (GDP) for 32 African countries. We find that Fourier stationary unit root test has higher power than linear method if the true data‐generating process of per capita real GDP is in fact a stationary nonlinear process of an unknown form with structural change using the low frequency components. We investigate the stationarity of per capita real GDP from the nonlinear point of view and provide robust evidence that clearly indicates that real output is well characterised by a nonlinear, mean‐reverting process, namely Benin, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Senegal, Sierra Leone and South Africa. Our evidence points that these seven countries are nonlinear stationary, implying that per capita real GDP follows a steady rate of growth, and policy innovations then have temporary effects. These results have important policy implications for African countries.     

Export diversification and income differences reconsidered: The extensive product margin in theory and application

The paper revisits the relationship between GDP per capita and diversification, using classical and more recent trade theory. Three theoretical findings are presented: (i) competitive models yield predictions only for the extensive product margin; (ii) countries continuously diversify their production and exports—a major controversy in the empirical literature; and (iii) causality runs from diversification to GDP per capita, and not the other way around. The theoretical analysis also provides indication for the appropriateness of alternative measures of diversification, and enables estimating the relationship to economic development in a gravity-type parametric specification. Using detailed data on countries’ exports, the case of re-specialization is rejected. Inference of causality reveals some evidence for GDP per capita affecting the level of diversification, but stronger support for diversification affecting GDP per capita. Generally, both variables are highly endogenous as they are both driven by the technology parameters in standard models of economic growth and international trade.