Appropriation,firm dynamics,and wage inequality

This paper examines the income distribution and welfare effects of appropriation activities in an economy. In the short run, with a given number of firms, appropriation can narrow wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labor when the capital resources accrued by appropriators are not large. However, wage inequality widens when the capital accrued is large. In the long run, with free entry and exit of firms, an increase in appropriation can cause firms to enter when the accrued capital is not large. This gives rise to a win–win outcome by raising the wages of skilled and unskilled labor. However, if accrued capital is large, firms exit and a lose–lose situation may occur in which skilled and unskilled wages are reduced.     

A heckscher-ohlin-samuelson interpretation of the labor-environmental coalition in Seattle

The coalition of North American labor unions and environmental organizations that joined in Seattle in 1999 is examined in the context of a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson simulation in which a labor abundant developing country, with a comparative advantage in a globally polluting industry but a weak environmental policy, endeavors to export some of the output of that industry to a capital abundant industrialized country but is thwarted by a trade sanction that requires it to adopt the strong environmental policy of the industrialized country as a precondition for trade. Labor unions in the industrialized country and environmental organizations both gain when the developing country complies with the sanctions but lose out when the World Trade Organization overrules the sanctions as barriers to free trade.     

Testing Conflicting Political Economy Theories: Full‐Fledged versus Partial‐Scope Regional Trade Agreements

We apply a duration analysis to test the conflicting predictions of the median voter model and the lobbying model using panel data on regional trade agreement (RTA) formation. Our results show that the pro‐labor prediction of the median voter model is supported by the full‐fledged free trade areas and customs unions (FTAs/CUs), while the pro‐capital prediction of the lobbying model is supported by the partial‐scope preferential trade arrangements among developing countries. This finding holds better for the country pairs with more different capital‐labor ratios as a result of the stronger distributional effects of RTAs. The support for the median voter model (lobbying model) is stronger when the two countries in a pair have left‐oriented (right‐oriented) governments. I also find stronger support for the median voter model for the subset of FTAs/CUs with service coverage and stronger support for the lobbying model for countries that place higher weight on political contribution.     

全球生产网络、贸易结构与工资差距：来自中国的证据

论文通过建立全球生产网络的中间投入品模型,实证分析中间品贸易对一国技术劳动力和非技术劳动力工资差异的影响。研究发现：加工贸易是中国融入全球生产网络的典型形态;其出口会扩大对技术和非技术劳动力的需求。但技术劳动力的工资上涨幅度要高于非技术劳动力的工资涨幅,从而使相对工资差距扩大。短期内,中间品的进口减少了技术劳动力的需求和就业,但长期来看中间品进口会扩大对技术劳动力的需求,相对工资差距拉大。人力资本投资的供给增长由于未能满足劳动力市场的需求,从而在一定程度上表现为工资差距拉大;但长期来看,人力资本积累机制的完善使得相对工资差距会逐渐缓和。     

ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.     

试论技术进步与贸易失衡

节约劳动的技术进步会提高资本生产率和回报率,相对降低劳动的报酬,使发达国家把越来越多的劳动相对密集的生产转移到发展中国家。同时,技术进步使发达国家财富正效应增强,提高预期收入,从而使消费增加,储蓄减少。而发展中国家由于劳动的报酬相对降低,会出现相反的情况,结果导致资本从发展中国家流出,发达国家出现贸易逆差。     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

知识关联、劳动者迁移与城镇化格局——基于新经济地理视角的理论分析与数值模拟

文章基于BerliantFujita知识创新与扩散模型,扩展构建了2×3×3的空间动态均衡模型,对知识关联、劳动者迁移与城镇化格局之间的关系进行了理论分析和数值模拟。结果表明:在知识资本自由流动和劳动者自由迁移的情况下,城乡空间格局演化的内生动力来源于知识资本的收益率差异、劳动者的福利水平差距及其循环积累因果作用,最终可能演变成为两种均衡且稳定的"核心—边缘"型城镇化格局,这种均衡格局差异取决于城乡贸易自由度以及由现代产品支出份额、现代产品替代弹性、技能劳动者份额决定的临界值。     

Do Global Trade Distortions Still Harm Developing Country Farmers?

We estimate the impact of global merchandise trade distortions and services regulations on agricultural value added in various countries. Using the latest versions of the GTAP database and the GTAP-AGR model of the global economy, our results suggest real net farm incomes would rise in developing countries with a move to free trade, thereby alleviating rural poverty—despite a terms of trade deterioration for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. We also show, for several large developing countries, the contribution of their own versus other countries’ trade policies. JEL no. C68, D58, F17, Q17     

Black male unemployment

Public policies intended to raise the wages of unskilled workers, equalize educational opportunity, stabilize employment, and increase imports were sources of the growth of unskilled and, therefore, of black unemployment since 1950. The wartime wage-equalization policy and postwar minimum-wage policies raised the cost of unskilled labor relative to that of capital and of skilled labor. The Fed's inflationary full-employment policy between 1950 and 1970 reduced real interest rates relative to unskilled wages. Subsidies for higher education increased the supply of skilled labor, reducing its cost relative to that of unskilled labor. Trade liberalization increased imports of manufactured goods from developing countries, which displaced U.S. unskilled labor.     

The new Ricardian specific factor model

This paper explores the implications on trade and wage inequality of introducing financial capital or credit in the standard Ricardian model of production, where a given amount of start-up credit is used to employ sector specific skilled and unskilled workers following the Wage Fund approach of classical economists. Thus, we have the Specific Factor (SF) structure of Jones (1971) in a new Ricardian model (NRM) with credit and two types of labour. With an entirely different mechanism from the conventional Neo-Classical structure, distributional consequences of changes in endowments, commodity prices, and financial capital are established. Comparisons with Jones (1971) show that unlike SF model, credit expansion affects wages and nominal costs without affecting trade patterns, while rise in the relative price of the skill-intensive good causes skilled wage to hike less than proportionately, and may cause return to capital to inflate more than the wages. We extend the basic model to analyse immigration, unemployment and imperfect credit market.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

International trade in used cars and problems of economic development

This paper provides a price-theoretic explanation of the well-known phenomenon that automobiles in developing countries depreciate less rapidly and are scrapped at a greater age than they are in industrial countries. This paper then argues that the renewal of barriers to free trade in used cars would lead to substantial welfare gains for developing countries through both capital gains implicit in the arbitrage and positive externalities from car repair industries. Negative externalities from increased car supplies are evaluated and the final part of this paper considers what policies might be needed to develop international trade in used cars on a large scale.     

东亚的产业分工体系及其结构性不平衡

本文首先考察东亚区域内贸易及经济增长不稳定的几种表现,并对区域内以垂直产业内分工为主要特征的分工体系、以对中间品及部分资本品的"交叉需求"为基础的贸易结构作了分析;其次研究由区域内直接投资所形成的区域生产网络,指出由于处在区域垂直产业内分工底部的发展中经济体承受结构调整的能力有限、处在上游的经济体的生产(需求)对处在下游的经济体的波及效应不大、区域外对东亚所生产的最终消费品缺乏足够的有效需求,所以东亚区域生产网络及垂直产业内分工的稳定性较差,结构性不平衡难以纠正;最后着重研究东亚各经济体如何通过战略调整来加强区域垂直产业内分工的稳定性,并提出今后调整的基本方向。     

贸易开放与工资差距——基于中国制造业行业面板数据的实证研究

本文在中国贸易非均衡发展现状基础上,构建计量模型,从商品价格机制、技术进步机制和生产率进步机制角度探讨中国贸易开放影响中国制造业行业间工资差距的具体传导机制。研究发现:(1)就制造业总体而言,贸易主要通过技术进步机制和劳动生产率机制来影响行业工资,造成行业间工资差距的扩大。(2)具体而言,劳动力密集型行业中,进出口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率共同作用于行业工资差距;在资本密集型行业中,进口贸易、资本密集度和劳动生产率是扩大工资差距的动因;在技术密集型行业中,出口贸易是工资差距扩大的主导因素。     

Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.     

Behind the heterogeneous trade effects of standards: Multi-sector evidence from China

Standards can influence trades via multiple channels, such as signaling effects, common language effects, and compliance costs. We argue that the impacting channels of standards differ across sectors, which originates from diverse sector features and results in heterogeneous trade effects of standards. In this paper, we focus on the trade effects of standards in developing countries as exporters. Gravity models are applied on the panel data of China’s bilateral trades in 33 sectors from 2002 to 2016. We examine the moderating role of sector features, including the intensity of capital, labor, and technology, on the trade effects of standards. We find that trade-promoting effects of standards are stronger in high-capital sectors and weaker in high-labor sectors. In high-tech sectors, the trade-promoting effects are stronger for internationally harmonized standards while weaker for national standards. Our findings provide managerial implications on standardization policies for China and other developing countries. For instance, international harmonization of standards should be highlighted in high-tech sectors.     

中日韩与东盟(10+3)税收协调研究

中日韩与东盟经济合作的现状决定了(10 3)国家间区域性税收协调的深度和广度。本文通过分析中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收国际协调现状、困难,提出了(10 3)税收国际协调应该遵循的原则,建议应建立中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收协调机制,以及消除货物、服务贸易中阻碍商品、人员自由流动、涉及投资所得等税收因素,以促进(10 3)国家间商品、资本、劳务、知识产权等的自由流动。     

International trade and income distribution: reconsidering the evidence

This article reassesses the link between international trade and income distribution. We argue that one way to assess the influence of international trade upon income distribution is to take account of each country’s specific trade patterns by measuring the changes in the factor content of trade. The econometric specification is based on changes in Gini indices (over non-overlapping 4-year intervals), computed exclusively from series drawn from the same source. Our results show that a change in the factor content of trade has a significant impact on income distribution. The sign and magnitude of this impact is conditional on the national income level. We find that an increase in the labor content of trade raises income inequality in poor countries, but reduces it in rich countries (the reverse is true for the capital content of trade). In particular, we show that in the 1980s and 1990s, international trade may have contributed significantly to widening income inequalities in developing countries.     

The Impact of Foreign Trade on the Employment of Unskilled U.S. Workers: Some New Evidence

This paper explores four empirical relationships reflecting the impact of foreign trade on the employment of unskilled workers: (i) the direct relationship between net exports and embodied education of the corresponding goods; (ii) the changes in domestic prices accompanying changes in net exports; (iii) the relationship between real or potential import competition and defensive measures such as more investment or increasing the skill level of the labor force; and (iv) the relationship between foreign trade and domestic prices. None of these exercises suggests that foreign trade has much impact on the employment of less skilled U.S. workers.