单独二孩政策下优化上海产科医疗卫生资源配置设想

中国计划生育政策在取得巨大成就同时,人口数量迅速减少,产生诸如人口老龄化、社会保障养老、劳动力短缺、独生子女、出生性别比失衡等问题等.2013年十八届三中全会首次提出“单独二孩”生育政策,即坚持计划生育的基本国策,启动实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩子的政策,逐步调整完善生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展.     

平台经济对性别收入差距的影响研究——基于CFPS数据的经验分析

数字革命催生的平台经济以强大的就业效应重塑劳动力就业形态和收入分配机制，为缩小性别收入差距带来契机。文章基于2020年中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，考察平台经济发展对性别收入差距的影响，结果表明：通过改善女性就业条件、削弱女性家庭责任限制、便利女性就业搜寻及提升女性人力资本，平台经济提高了女性劳动者的就业能力和就业机会，给女性劳动者带来比男性更大幅度的收入增长，从而缩小性别收入差距；性别收入差距缩小效果对已婚、中低技能、受雇型及服务行业的劳动者群体更为明显；当今劳动力市场上禀赋收益率差异（性别歧视）依然是性别收入差距形成的主要来源，女性具备的平台经济接入优势和回报率优势都对性别收入差距起到收敛作用。     

继续完善生育政策调整的思考

十八届三中全会提出了“只开放双单独夫妇生二孩”的方案,是生育政策调整所迈出的第一步.在受人口分母决定论误导反对生育政策调整,主张保持原生育政策不变的声音仍然十分强大的情况下,迈出这第一步是很不容易的,也是值得庆幸的.但是,基于2010年人口普查和其他最新数据研究表明,只开放双单独方案虽比保持原生育政策不变有所改善,但与普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育方案相比,仍有加速人口老化与劳动力萎缩,助长出生性别比偏高与继续制造独生子女高风险家庭等一系列有损人口社会经济均衡发展的弊端,而且将显著加大新时期计划生育工作难度.     

国际贸易对性别工资差距的影响:基于CHFS数据的研究

文章构建了国际贸易影响分技能劳动力性别工资差距的理论模型,并运用2011年中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS)进行均值回归和分位数回归。实证研究结果显示:就总体性别工资差距而言,国际贸易虽扩大了性别工资差距,但对分技能性别工资差距的影响存在差异,贸易对低技能劳动力的性别工资差距有缩小作用,对高技能劳动力的性别工资差距有扩大作用;就不同地区性别工资差距而言,国际贸易提高了沿海地区的工资水平,并有助于缓解该地区的性别工资差距,但对内陆地区工资水平的提高有不利影响;就分技能的分位数性别工资差距而言,在工资分布的不同位置上,国际贸易总是在扩大高技能劳动力的性别工资差距,同时国际贸易有缩小工资分布中的中低端低技能劳动力性别工资差距的作用,这大致印证了上述均值回归的结果。基于以上结论,在贸易促使竞争加剧的背景下,即便高技能女性有时也难以从贸易中获得和男性均等的利益,虽然改善女性的个体特征(如受教育程度)有助于缓解性别工资差距的问题,但只有政府加强对劳动力市场的监管、完善社保制度,才能为解决性别工资差距建立更有效的制度保障。     

“全面二孩”政策下居民生育意愿及影响因素调查分析——基于甘肃省调查数据

在"全面二孩"的政策背景下,了解甘肃省居民生育意愿及影响因素,为二胎政策的落实以及国家政策的调整提供科学依据并提出建议。方法:采用分层抽样的方法收集问卷,对甘肃省三个市的人群随机抽样进行调查研究。调查的1830份问卷中,甘肃省居民的理想子女数集中在2个孩子,26～40岁年龄段居民生育意愿最高,最理想的家庭模式为一男一女占56.1%,期望生育时间在婚后一年左右占53.6%,支持二孩政策的人群占被调查者人数的96.7%。"全面二孩"政策下甘肃省居民的生育意愿大幅升高,男性较女性而言,平均理想子女数量更多,其中对居民的生育意愿有影响的因素为年龄和婚姻状况。     

"全面二孩"政策背景下城市双非家庭的生育意愿研究 ——基于江苏省H市的调查与分析

"全面二孩"政策下,对江苏省H市98个城市双非家庭调查表明,城市双非家庭的理想生育时间主要集中在26—35岁,两个孩子之间的理想生育间隔以3—5年为最多;最理想的生育数量为2个孩子;对孩子性别偏好不明显;非常重视生育质量;生育目的主要倾向于精神满足.     

二孩政策背景下生育压力与生育倾向的调查研究

研究关注全面二孩政策实施中城市已生育一孩的二孩育龄青年的生育倾向,以及生育压力对二孩生育决定的影响,并引入传统生育观作为影响二孩生育倾向的调节变量。研究表明：（1）即使全面放开二孩,人们的二孩生育倾向也只处于中等水平;（2）三大生育压力,即经济压力、工作压力,家庭关系压力均负向影响生育倾向,其中家庭关系压力感最强;（3）传统生育观在生育压力与二孩生育倾向中都表现出相关性,且在经济压力影响二孩生育倾向中起到一定的调节效应。研究结果对理顺二孩生育的影响因素,正确把握当前及未来二孩生育趋势,推动国家二孩政策的落实具有一定的应用价值。     

“单独二孩”政策对家庭发展能力的影响——基于对“全面二孩”政策的启示

长期稳定的低生育计划和生育政策对家庭发展能力产生了重要影响,改变了家庭结构、家庭策略、家庭风险应对能力.“单独二孩”政策的实施是对长期计划生育政策影响下的家庭发展能力的考验.家庭发展能力不足制约了“单独二孩”政策的成效.因而在推行“全面二孩”政策中,政府应采取措施对家庭发展能力进行培植,避免出现“单独二孩”政策实施引导不足的尴尬局面.     

二孩生育选择的影响因素分析

众所周知,中国人口老龄化程度日益加剧,新增劳动力人口逐年递减,由此带来的劳动力短缺、人民养老问题困难的社会问题层出不穷。为了缓解这些社会问题,2015年10月29日,中共十八届五中全会指出,"全面实施一对夫妇可生育两个孩子政策"(简称"全面二孩"政策)。随着"全面二孩"政策的落地与实施,大多数家庭再考虑是否生育二孩时,更多考虑的是抚养孩子所必须面临的经济问题、家庭问题、教育问题等等一系列的困难。文章将通过对"全面二孩"生育政策背景下二胎生育的选择与顾虑做一个调查研究,提出进一步完善中国人口生育政策的措施,以推动中国人口可持续发展。     

生育对女性养老保障的影响分析

全面二孩政策实施后,政策实施并未达到预期效果,国家放开生育管控,微观个体的生育行为却没有大量提升,从女性角度研究生育二孩对其养老保障的影响可进一步说明女性的生育决策行为,为解释我国人口供需不平衡问题提供路径。文章就生育对城镇职业女性影响进行分析,从提高女性劳动参与率和人力资本投资回报,提供儿童照料服务和完善二孩生育保险制度考虑减轻女性生育决策顾虑,为实现我国人口均衡可持续发展提供参考。     

More Rights but Less Gains: Relaxed Birth Control Policy and the Loss for Women

In view of its aging population, China initiated in 2012 a relaxed birth control policy after a three-decades-long implementation of the restrictive one-child policy. This paper examines how China's relaxed birth control policy leads to gender inequality. It specifically focuses on migrant workers because they account for a significant portion of the working group. Using the National Migrant Population Dynamic Monitoring Survey from 2014 to 2016, we found that China's two-child pilot policy reduced female labor force participation by 1.4 percentage points. This negative effect was more pronounced for women with higher educational levels or working in the private sector because employers foresee greater risks of productivity decline. We demonstrated that the gender pay gap increased from RMB956 to RMB1,053 during this same period. Pinpointing these unintended consequences brought about by the relaxation of the one-child policy helps provide a more complete picture of inequality and make sense of persistent relative poverty in Chinese society. To counteract gender discrimination, females are advised to work outside their home jurisdictions and take advantage of positive peer effects.     

开放二孩政策对于我国社会发展的意义研究

开放二孩政策是我国新时期背景下施行的宽松性生育政策,在计划生育基本国策的前提下放宽生育政策,追求人口长期均衡发展。本文简要论述了中华人民共和国成立以来的生育政策演变以及政策调整的背景;之后提出我国现阶段人口发展存在的问题、开放二孩政策对实现人口长期均衡发展的意义;最后指出施行开放二孩政策要因地制宜灵活变通,并不能一劳永逸地解决我国人口问题。随着社会发展生育政策也会进行调整,最终服务于社会。     

Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence

This paper examines the impact of family size on household saving. We first study a theoretical life-cycle model that includes finite lifetimes and saving for retirement and in which parents care about the consumption by their dependent children. The model implies a negative relationship between the number of dependent children in the family and the household saving rate. Then, we test the model's implications using new survey data on household finances in China. We use the differential enforcement of the one-child policy across counties to address the possible endogeneity between household saving and fertility decisions in a two-stage least squares Tobit regression. We find that Chinese families with fewer dependent children have significantly higher saving rates. The data yields several additional insights on household saving patterns. Households with college-age children have lower saving rates, and households residing in urban areas have higher saving rates and a lower ratio of education expenditures to income. However, having an additional child reduces saving rates more for households in urban areas than in rural areas. Our regressions also indicate that saving rates vary with age and tend to be higher for households with more workers, higher education, better health, and more assets.     

New “useless education theory”: Highly educated parents' expectations for their children's education—Evidence from the one-child policy

Using data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2010 and a strictly implemented one-child policy as a quasi-experiment, this paper analyses the changes in parents' educational expectations of their children and the underlying mechanisms in a fuzzy regression discontinuity framework. It was found that one-child policy compliers have lower educational expectations for their children after acquiring an advanced education than those who did not. The finding remains valid after robustness analysis and placebo tests. Combined with an examination of the intergenerational effects of birth, this finding may be related to parents' assessment of and responses to educational returns and equality of educational opportunities. It was also found that parents with lower educational attainment in the high-income group have higher educational expectations than those with higher educational attainment, while for those with lower income, there is no significant difference between higher educational attainment and otherwise, which indirectly verifies the causal inference of this paper. The finding of this study explains the new “useless education theory” and provides a new perspective for understanding the intergenerational transmission of education.     

中国农村收入不平等—基于微观调查数据的回归分解

论文利用2003-2008年CGSS的微观个体调查数据,运用回归分解方法对中国农村收入不平等进行分解。首先对收入不平等进行测算,研究发现农村收入极端不平等,并且呈上升趋势。回归分解结果表明,年龄、教育、性别、东部地区虚拟变量、政治地位、婚姻、健康和幸福感是对农村收入不平等的决定要素。其中教育、年龄、性别、东部地区虚拟变量和健康对农村收入不平等的贡献显著。其余变量对农村收入不平等的贡献相对较小,但其对农村收入不平等的影响也不能被忽视。研究结论对政府制定科学合理的收入分配政策和有效调控收入差距具有借鉴作用。     

Rural Electrification in China： History and Institution

I. Introduction Prior to 2002 there was a rural electricity administrative system at the county level andbelow, which was separated from the urban (or state) electricity system. In 1949 when the People’s Republic was founded, there were only 33 small hydropower stations in rural China, with a total installed capacity of 3.63 MW, and total electricity consumption in rural areas was 20 million kWh. Since 1949, rural electrification has made considerable progress and contributed a lot to the …     

“Selective two-child” policy and household resource allocation

This paper estimates the effect of the “selective two-child” policy (The “selective two-child” policy allowed couples to have two children if one member of the couple was an only child (1-OC family)). on the resource allocation between generations amongst urban households in China by referring to the nationally representative China Household Finance Survey (CHFS). The results of propensity score matching (PSM) and difference-in-difference (DID) show that the total and per capita expenditures on children education are reduced significantly after the implementation of the “selective two-child” policy, testifying to the quantity-quality trade-off of children in Chinese families. Nevertheless, the financial support for the elderly not living in the household does not decrease, suggesting no intergenerational competition. Furthermore, the total and per capita expenditures for the qualified families decreased significantly, which indicates that the loosening of fertility policy may lead to new-oriented and unintended precautionary saving motives.     

One-child policy and childhood obesity

This paper investigates the effect of only children on childhood obesity in China. We use implementation measures of family planning policies as instrumental variables in the estimations, and find that being raised in a one-child family significantly increases the weight, body mass index, and probability of being overweight or obese for children. By examining mothers' care-taking behaviors and their children's dietary habits and nutritional intake, we identify the following channels linking one-child families with childhood obesity. (a) In one-child families, parents prefer spending money to using their time to care for their children. (b) In one-child families, children eat more high-sugar, high-fat, and high-protein food. A time–money trade-off could be a plausible mechanism of the effects we document.     

土地收益平等是农村土地公平的根基

我国农村土地集体所有,由农民分散承包经营,在一定程度上体现了土地的占有平等,实现了世代农民的梦想。但是,缘于城乡、地区之间主客观因素等的差异性,存在着事实上的土地收益起点、机会、标准的不平等,导致收益结果的不公平。要体现农村土地公平,就应当使土地均等占有,向土地收益平等转化,使耕种者能够获得平均利润。为此,应当提高农民的素质、利用土地所有权平衡贫富差距、善待城镇普通职工(农村务工者)等。     

Inequality of Opportunity in China's Labor Earnings: The Gender Dimension

This paper investigates the inequality of opportunity in China's labor earnings, defined as the component of inequality determined by personal circumstances that lie beyond the control of an individual, of which gender is one, as opposed to the component determined by personal efforts. Using the Survey of Women's Social Status in China (2010), we measure the share of inequality of opportunity in the total inequality of individual labor earnings for people aged 26–55 years, and separately for six birth cohorts and for female and male subsamples. Gender is revealed as the single most important circumstance determining nationwide individual labor earnings, with one's region of residence, father's occupation, father's education, birth cohort and holding rural or urban hukou also playing significant roles. A further investigation into the roles of circumstances and personal efforts (including education level, occupation, Communist Party membership, migration and marital status) confirms that circumstances play an alarmingly high role in shaping labor earnings distribution in China, and reveals notable gender differences that cannot be attributed to personal effort alone. These results provide the basis for recommending ways to improve gender equality of opportunity in the future.