关于我国可转债条款的实证分析及创新研究

通过对我国可转债条款的实证分析发现,现行可转债条款过于偏向可转债投资人的利益,同时各可转债条款设计差异化不明显。通过可转债条款创新:一方面平衡各方利益,促进可转债市场长期稳定的发展;另一方面增强个性化设计,以满足市场上不同风险偏好投资者的需要,促进可转债市场功能的充分发挥。     

中国可转换债券定价实际问题和解决方案研究

可转债定价理论在国外发展了近半个世纪。并且形成了基于公司价值和股票价格的两种定价模型体系。我国可转债的发展历史较短,业界对其定价理论仍然比较陌生,因此了解国外可转债定价的发展对我们有重要的借鉴意义。从而结合我国可转债的特点找到适合中国市场的定价模型。本文主要是对中国可转换债券的理论价格和市场价格存在偏差的原因进行了分析研究并提出了解决建议。     

我国可转换债券定价方法研究

可转换债券是一种较为复杂的金融衍生产品。本文对我国可转债的理论价格与市场价格的差异进行了实证分析,认为在我国资本市场无法满足做空套利机制下,可转债理论价格要远高于市场价格。为了解决这个问题,本文提出用偏最小二乘回归方法进行可转债的定价预测。     

我国可转债市场的实证研究

从2002年可转债的发行巨额包销、交易跌破面值到去年上半年可转债的超额认购、交易价格大幅上扬，我国可转债市场的融资规模首度超过了股票市场的增发、配股和新发股票的总融资额，可转债作为股票和债券的衍生品，受到越来越多的青睐和关注，本文根据2003年6月30目前我国可转债市场相关数据，对可转债的特征、部分嵌入条款、市场现状以及发展前景进行实证分析，并在此基础上对我国可转债市场的发展提出几点建议。     

我国上市公司发行可转债的动机与条款设计——以“歌华转债”为例

作为一种快速发展的衍生融资工具,可转债发行动机和条款设计受到理论和实践的普遍关注。从代理问题的视角,文章对歌华有线公司发行可转债主要条款,包括利率条款、转股条款及触发条款进行比较分析,发现“歌华转债”股性较强,条款设计倾向于变相发行股票,而不是降低代理成本。这一发现与经典融资理论矛盾。论文从逃避市场规则和证券发行制度缺陷两方面进行了解释。研究对公司设计转债条款和有关部门制定政策具有借鉴意义。     

可转换债券传统定价模型探讨

可转换债券在我国获得了稳定而又快速的发展,与此极不协调的是我国可转债定价模型效率普遍不高,不利于我国可转换债券发展。通过探讨传统定价模型,比较分析各传统模型的优劣势,为开发适合我国可转换债券的定价模型做铺垫。     

台湾可转换债券提早赎回条款的实证研究

美国企业发行可转债的初期，若资本支出非常庞大，很快将募集而来的资金用尽，为配合投资与融资的活动，可转债发行条件的设计通常赋与投资人软性保障的赎回条款。非常有趣的是，台湾企业并未如预期设计保障程度较弱的可转债募集资金，伴随着提早结束长期投资计划，以发行硬性保障的赎回条款争取获得投资活动的资金。     

关于可转换债券融资问题研究述评

可转换债券现已成为我国资本市场不可或缺的投融资工具，关于可转债的研究也日益受人关注。本文试图从发行人融资的角度，就可转债的内涵特征、融资影响的主要因素和定价三个方面对国内外相关文献进行评价，并提出自己的一些观点。     

国内外可转债市场发展状况与特征分析

可转债不仅是一种复合性的投融资工具,还是创新型的衍生工具,其市场体系的繁荣和发展不但有利于解决目前资本市场存在的公司融资难,投资品种匮乏、金融创新困难等问题,而且还将十分有利于完善我国资本市场和化解金融风险。所以,了解国外可转债市场对于我们借鉴国外经验来发展我国可转债市场有着很重要的理论意义与现实意义。本文结合实际数据分析了国际转债市场的发展现状及特征。最后本文还从我国上市公司再融资方式变革角度分析了我国可转债市场的产生与发展。     

可转债发行公告对公司股价的影响基于公司的基本面和发行条款

对我国上市公司发行可转换债券的公告对股票价格的影响进行了实证分析,结果发现,上市公司发布发行可转换债券公告后,在对当天股价有负面影响,但这种影响不能持续。用公司基本面的变量和发行条款变量进行的回归研究得出了有意义的结论,同时发现,我国发行可转债的上市公司性质的特殊性使得某些变量反常。     

A policy of credit disruption: the Punjab Land Alienation Act of 1900

If land is titled and transferable, it can be used as collateral against which money can be borrowed. The resulting increase in access to credit is usually expected to foster economic growth. This article focuses on a policy in colonial India that made land less available as collateral for debt. Using a panel dataset for Punjab districts from 1890 to 1910, the findings show that this reduced the availability of mortgage-backed credit, but did not hurt proxies for economic development, such as acreage and cattle, at least in the short run.     

中国的影子银行会成为另一个次债?

最近几年中国的影子银行或信托融资业务快速发展,反映了利率市场化的实际表现,不过这些业务的潜在风险也引发了对中国经济增长硬着陆的担忧。向公众销售理财产品的信托融资和由金融机构作为中介的委托贷款两种融资方式具有较大的潜在风险。尽管个别违约可能会引发广泛的赎回,但中国的信托融资尚不致形成"资产价格下跌—不断恶化的资产负债表—被迫抛售资产"之间的恶性循环。中国的影子银行也还不会导致系统性金融风险,但完善影子银行业务的监管已经成为一项紧迫的任务。     

The Effect of Limited Liability on the Market Response to Disclosure*

Abstract. We formalize the effects of an earnings disclosure on security prices under an assumption of limited liability. We derive various nonlinear relations between equity prices and earnings under a variety of capital structure assumptions and. if possible, we tie the relations attained to results from the existing empirical literature. We also characterize how debt prices respond to earnings when holders of debt have limited liability. Finally, we analyze how changes in the degree of leverage and conversion features of debt affect the relation between price and earnings.     

Africa's Debts and Economic Recovery

A substantial reduction of external debt burden of many African countries is needed, for four reasons. First, the present debt burden of Africa is extremely heavy. Africa's debts are equivalent to more than 100% of its GNP, compared to less than 50% in Latin America – another heavily indebted region – and even less elsewhere. The weight of Africa's burden is exacerbated by its lower per capita income than elsewhere in developing regions. Secondly, Africa is experiencing adverse effects of falling commodity prices more than any other region because of its greater dependence on primary products than other regions. Over the last forty years, export commodity prices other than oil have fallen by 50% in real terms, a staggering development with far-reaching adverse effects on many producers. Between May 1989 and January 1991, commodity prices other than oil fell 23% in SDR terms – speed of decline similar to that experienced in the great price fall 1980-82 which marked the beginning of the debt crisis of the 1980s. Cocoa and coffee, two major exports of Sub-Saharan Africa, were particularly badly hurt. Thirdly, while debt in other debt-affected areas has stabilized in recent years, that of Africa has continued to grow as interest is charged on interest and capitalized. Many African countries have been compelled to suspend their debt service payments; according to World Bank calculations, less than one half of Africa's debt service due is now being paid. Even so, debt service which is still being paid absorbs 27% of Africa's shrunken exports – a proportion which severely curtails Africa's capacity to import and to grow. Fourthly, debt settlement is needed to clear the way for resumption of Africa's economic development, now virtually stagnant for a decade in aggregate terms and falling in per capita terms. Africa has the capacity to modernize and grow, and this has been proven in one critical area and against all odds. Between 1980 and 1987, exports of manufactures from Sub-Saharan African countries rose 42% in U.S. dollar terms or 5.7% per year. In 1988, out of 33 countries for which data are available, exports of manufactures rose in 28, and the overall increase for the 33 was 15.8 %. In 1988, eleven Sub-Saharan countries exported manufactures in excess of US $100 million each, compared to seven countries in 1980; and in 1989, there was none. There also have been setbacks, for various reasons. But taking Sub-Saharan as a whole, to achieve a 60% increase in exports of manufactures to US $4 billion on a non-negligible base of US $2.5 billion in 1980, over an eight-year period marked by a commodity collapse, droughts, debt crisis, wars and policy disasters, is a remarkable achievement by any standard. In North Africa, exports of manufactures more than doubled between 1980 and 1987, and then accelerated at 18% per year in 1988-89. North African exports of manufactures are now running at US $5 billion per year. This diversification and growth of African exports must be sustained. For this purpose, African countries must have realistic exchange rates, undistorted product prices across the economy, sufficient supply of industrial inputs and hence adequate growth of agricultural and mineral output, and they must reconstruct the existing capital stock, in many places obsolete, and add new facilities. Their investment, a crucial element for further growth, has fallen sharply in the last decade of the debt crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: the fall has been so severe that some countries have not even been able to fully replace depreciating capital. At the present level of domestic savings and international commodity prices, most of Africa cannot undertake the reconstruction, modernization and expansion out of domestic ressources to any significant extent. Foreign capital inflow is needed to initiate the recovery and to help sustain it thereafter. But such capital inflow will not take place until the present debt situation is cleared up. This is a necessary condition, even though it is not sufficient: it must be supported by domestic efforts single-mindedly dedicated to economic recovery and social justice. Past efforts at the solution of the debt problem, some of them imaginative and generous, have proven insufficient and uncoordinated. A new deal is needed, attacking the core of the Sub-Saharan problem: debts held by some multilateral financial institutions and debts held by the private sector, in addition to a further shrinking down of service on official bilateral debt or its total cancellation in an imaginative proposal. In North Africa, the acute liquidity squeeze of Algeria – debt service absorbing almost 70% of exports of goods and services per year – needs to be alleviated through debt rescheduling over the long term, thus releasing resources for needed economic recovery. Algeria's debt outstanding is relatively low; it is the service structure which needs radical change. While Africa's commodity problem is not on the agenda of the Abidjan Roundtable, one specific commodity situation can perhaps be handled: the cocoa crisis which affects severely a large part of West Africa and for which remedy seems relatively easily in hand. It is proposed that a consortium of international financial institutions be organized to finance, through loans of, say, 15 years duration, the sale of surplus cocoa stocks to Eastern Europe, thus contributing to cocoa price recovery and hopefully stabilization, and improvement of food supply in Eastern Europe. The operation would be no more risky than other balance-of-payments structural adjustment lending. Cocoa producing countries in parts of Latin America, the Caribbean and Asia would be also beneficiaries. Adjustment and development programmes should be prepared, and seen to be prepared, by national authorities of African countries rather than by foreign advisers and international organizations. Otherwise commitment will be lacking.     

Public debt and relative prices in a cross-section of countries

This paper examines the effects of debt and distortionary labor taxation on the long-run behavior of the relative price of nontraded goods. At the theoretical level, in a two-sector open economy model we demonstrate that higher public debt, associated with higher taxation, contracts labor supply in both traded and nontraded goods sectors. Relative prices move inversely with relative supply shifts which, in turn, depend on relative factor intensities. At the empirical level, for a panel of advanced economies, we find statistically significant effects of public debt and taxes on the relative price of nontraded goods, with higher debt and taxes associated with higher relative prices.     

Gold, credit, and mortality: distinguishing deflationary pressures on the late medieval English economy

This article uses national and local records of debt and evidence from coins, prices, and wages to discuss the economic effects of the gold coinage that was introduced into England in 1344. It distinguishes between the deflationary effects of gold and those of the falling population on prices and credit, and shows that a coinage dominated by gold reduced the volume of credit and transactions far more than the mortality rate and the total circulation of coin would indicate was likely. It relates these findings to the economic and social changes of the fifteenth century.     

Aggregate Margin Debt and the Divergence of Price from Accounting Fundamentals

We examine whether, in the aggregate, margin debt is associated with the divergence of price from accounting fundamentals. We find that investors increase their margin debt following upward price movements away from accounting fundamentals, consistent with these investors being extrapolative in aggregate. We also find evidence that margin debt appears to be linked to temporary overpricing in recent periods, as the aggregate ratio of margin debt to price is reliably associated with negative future returns since at least 1992. Our results are consistent with the theoretical literature that predicts extrapolative traders have a destabilizing effect on market prices, and helps explain why prices diverge from accounting fundamentals.     

House Price Dynamics with Household Debt: The Korean Case*

This paper revisits the long‐run determinants of house prices, and analyzes the house price dynamics using Korean data taking into account the close relationship between house prices and household debt. The results of cointegrating regression indicate that the major portion of the rise in house prices in Korea over the last 15 years can be explained by changes in macro variables such as household income, the demographic structure, the user cost of home ownership and the housing stock supply. The results also confirm that house prices are, indeed, closely linked to the steep increase in household debt seen over this period. Estimation of an error correction model shows that the extent of convergence of actual house prices to their long‐run equilibrium path has weakened somewhat since the global financial crisis while the speed of convergence has slowed, indicating structural changes in the Korean housing market. Finally, a forecast for house prices over the next several years suggests that they are unlikely to rise as sharply as they did in the 2000s, given the likely changes in the macro‐financial environment, and that their future path will be closely associated with that of the household debt‐to‐income ratio.     

债务风险、量化宽松与中国通胀前景

在全球金融危机期间,美、英、日等主要发达国家的财政状况迅速恶化、公共债务急剧增加。而美联储和其他主要央行实施量化宽松的货币政策,更可能直接增加流向中国的热钱。另外还有三大因素将直接抬高中国的通胀压力:第一是粮食及大宗商品价格直线上升;第二是工资水平急剧上涨;第三是极度宽松的货币政策环境。所有这些表明通货膨胀可能是2011年中国最大的宏观经济风险,央行需要采取包括加息、升值等的全面性的货币政策紧缩来控制通胀风险。