Understanding FDI and production networks in East Asia

We provide evidence from the electronics industry in East Asia supporting Kojima's (1973) hypothesis that FDI moves from capital‐exporting countries' disadvantaged industries into host countries' advantaged industries. These results imply that FDI and trade are complementary, unlike in Mundell's (1957) model where they are substitutes. The results also indicate that exchange rate volatility deters trade, implying that reductions in the service link costs between production blocks can promote fragmentation. These findings imply that host countries in East Asia can receive technology transfers by lowering service link costs.     

Inward FDI and demand for skills in manufacturing firms in Sweden

We observe a substantial increase in foreign ownership in Sweden in the 1990s. Did that have any effect on relative demand for skilled labor? Has technology transfers—often associated with inward FDI—led to an increased demand for skills due to skilled-biased technical change? Are there any grounds for the concerns in the public Swedish debate that more skilled activities have been moved to other countries where the headquarters are located? Estimating relative labor demand at the firm level and using propensity score matching with difference-in-difference estimation, we obtain support for that relative demand for skilled labor tend to rise in non-multinationals (non-MNEs)—but not in multinationals (MNEs)—that become foreign-owned. Other interesting findings are that larger presence of foreign MNEs in an industry appears to have a positive impact on the relative demand for skills in Swedish MNEs within the same industry and that the elasticity of substitution between skilled and less-skilled labor seems to be lower in MNEs than in non-MNEs.     

我国高技术产业创新绩效与区域差异性研究

采用我国2000—2010年26省市的高技术产业面板数据,对国内研发、技术转移和国外技术溢出与高技术产业的创新绩效关系进行实证研究。同时,考虑到省市间经济发展水平和创新能力存在较大差异,又把26个省市按照经济发展水平划分为三个区域,分别考察各区域的创新绩效。研究发现,本国科研人员投入及技术转移对技术发明起到明显的促进作用,科研人员投入等本国要素及FDI、出口贸易等国外因素则对产业创新有较为显著的作用。各因素对不同收入水平的地区有明显的地区差异性:国内研发等要素投入对高收入地区的技术创新促进性作用比较明显,而FDI等因素对低收入地区整体创新能力均产生明显的积极效应。因此需要根据各地区的经济发展水平和创新能力制定相应的科技政策。     

高技术服务业FDI对中美制造业效率影响的比较分析——基于中介效应分析

随着以信息技术为代表的新技术的广泛应用以及经济全球化进程的加快,全球产业转移进入了新的阶段,高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率影响日益重要。本文引入生产制造成本和创新能力作为中介变量,对中美高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率的影响路径进行比较分析。结果表明,美国高技术服务业FDI通过降低生产成本和提高创新能力对制造业效率均有显著的正效应,而中国只有科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业FDI通过提高创新能力对制造业效率影响显著,其他变量均没有通过中介效应检验。我国应借鉴美国服务业的成功经验,发挥高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率的促进作用。     

外资撤离速度与制造业转型升级——基于CGE对IT制造业的仿真分解分析

近年来，IT制造业等外资依赖性较强的产业面临的外资撤离风险不断升高，如何衡量和评估不同撤离速度下内资企业的发展稳定性和实现转型升级的支撑性?文章将CGE模型数值模拟与DEA分解分析相结合，考察不同外资撤离速度场景对IT制造业内资企业的影响，以及机制和路径。结果表明：1、当外资流入为0或者其存量以5%的速度小幅持续撤离时，内资企业受影响较小。较高的资本深化率、技术效率和技术进步使得其能够较快填补市场空白，具备企稳回升的能力；2、当外资存量以25%的较高速度撤离时，内资企业由于技术进步受到抑制，劳动生产率处于不可扭转的持续下滑趋势；3、外资企业在可见预期内仍然将是内资企业的主要技术进步来源，外资撤离会通过抑制内资企业技术进步，从而约束资本深化和技术效率的路径中对内资企业的稳定发展和转型升级产生负面影响。基于上述研究，文章提出相关政策启示和建议。     

The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities

Using a panel of Chinese cities over the period 1991–2010, we examine the determinants of economic growth, focusing on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and human capital. Consistent with the predictions of a human capital-augmented Solow model, we find that the growth rate (along the path to the steady-state income level) of per capita GDP is negatively correlated with population growth rate and positively correlated with investment rate in physical capital and human capital. We find that FDI has a positive effect on the per capita GDP growth rate and this effect is intensified by the human capital endowment of the city. The latter suggests that one way that human capital contributes to growth is to serve as a facilitator for technology transfers stemming from FDI. Furthermore, we find some suggestive evidence that the FDI-human capital complementary effect is stronger for technology-intensive FDI than for labor-intensive FDI. Our results are robust to alternative measures of human capital, model specifications, and estimation methods.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN INDONESIA: FIFTY YEARS OF DISCOURSE

The topic of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been prominent in assessments of economic development in Indonesia during the past 50 years. In this article I review Indonesia's FDI record in a historical perspective; the current urge to control FDI inflows and the need to augment domestic savings and facilitate technology transfers are not at all new in Indonesia. I draw in particular on the discourse on FDI in this journal, the Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, giving special attention to contributions by this journal to the international literature on FDI and its impact. The article demonstrates that the relation between FDI and economic growth has been less straightforward in Indonesia than elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Although FDI has grown in a restrictive investment climate, on occasion it has failed to do so despite more liberal conditions. This may be attributed to the sustained role of natural resources in determining Indonesia's attractiveness as a host country of FDI.     

国际知识溢出与中国技术进步实证研究

本文把技术进步分为水平差异型和垂直阶梯型两种模式,从理论上探讨了在不同的技术进步模式下知识溢出对技术进步的影响,接着对国际知识溢出和发展中国家技术进步之间的关系进行了实证分析。本文的实证分析发现,进口渠道的国际知识溢出是中国提升技术水平的最主要途径,而FDI渠道国际知识溢出的技术进步效应并不显著,这是因为进口渠道的国际知识溢出多发生在水平差异型技术进步行业,而FDI渠道的国际知识溢出多发生在垂直阶梯型技术进步行业。因此本文认为,扩大中间投入品进口、引导FDI投向水平差异型技术进步模式行业、鼓励和支持本国企业的研发行为更有利于促进我国的技术进步。     

外商直接投资对中国技术进步效应的结构分析

以行业数据为基础的分析结果表明,外资对上海的直接技术进步效应大于外资对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应,而外资对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应大小又与外资进入的行业有关。分不同外资来源的分析结果表明,港澳台投资对上海的直接技术进步效应小于对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应,OECD投资对上海的直接技术进步效应大于对上海本地企业的技术溢出效应。从上海经验出发,我们认为,我国必须根据外资对我国本地企业的正向技术溢出效应大小,甄别和遴选外资来源、流入形式和进入行业,在若干难以明显获得外资正向技术溢出效应的领域,采用内资替代外资的投资政策,以增加我国资本要素的投资收益,减少GDP与GNP之间的差距,降低经济增长过程中的福利漏出。     

外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业影响研究

本文通过建立计量模型,分析了近年外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业发展的影响。研究结果显示,外商直接投资对浙江农产品加工业国内投资和就业没有明显的挤出效应,技术转移的效果显著;但较大的技术差距不利于国有及国有控股农产品加工企业获取跨国公司技术转移外溢效应。     

交通运输设备制造业中FDI技术溢出效应的区域比较

采用2001-2011年我国交通运输设备制造业省际面板数据,比较我国东北、东、中、西部地区交通运输设备制造业中技术溢出效应大小。分析结果表明：交通运输设备制造业中FDI技术溢出效应在东部地区最高,中部和东北部地区居中,西部地区最小。最后,针对区域技术溢出效应差异作了结论分析,并提出有效提高交通运输设备制造业FDI技术溢出效应的政策建议。     

高技术服务业FDI对东道国制造业效率影响的研究——基于中介效应分析

在全球化背景下,随着世界各国产业结构的调整和产业转移的加快,服务业日益成为国际投资的主流,研究高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率的影响显得非常必要。本文运用中国制造业28个细分行业2003～2010年的面板数据,引入交易成本、生产制造成本和创新能力作为中介变量,研究高技术服务业FDI对制造业效率提升的机理。研究结果表明,高技术服务业FDI对中国制造业效率均有正的直接效应,但中介效应不同:信息传输、计算机服务和软件业通过降低交易成本提高制造业效率;科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业FDI通过提高创新能力提高制造业效率,然而生产制造成本并没有通过中介效应的检验。最后,本文提出了扩大服务市场开放,提高人力资本等建议。     

反向技术溢出、技术进步和我国经济增长——基于面板协整模型的分析

本文选取了1990～2007年间中国进口和对中国FDI前十位的国家和地区,扩展了CH模型,建立了包含进口和FDI两个物化型技术溢出指标的面板模型,利用面板单位根和协整技术,得到随机效应模型,分析溢出国对华出口和FDI对溢出国的反向技术溢出效应,结果表明:从溢出国角度看,对外投资比对外贸易更有利于这些国家和地区全要素生产率的提高,因此,溢出国更倾向于对华FDI,我国招商引资政策需要做出调整。     

“新三角贸易”模式下的贸易、投资与创新绩效——基于知识溢出与吸收能力视角的研究

本文采用地区细分的贸易和投资数据,从技术引进、吸引外商直接投资(FDI)两大路径研究"新三角贸易"模式下知识外溢对本土创新绩效的影响。研究表明:吸收能力是影响本土创新的关键因素;产业关联度低是制约高技术领域FDI知识溢出的重要原因。     

FDI对服务经济影响机制探讨——行业关联性还是中间投入性?

本文考察服务业行业关联性和中间投入性两种基本特征,对1997～2009年我国服务业行业数据进行实证分析。一方面,以投入产出表数据量化行业关联度,根据强弱聚类;另一方面,以中间需求率为指标构建4个中间投入性递减的面板数据,进而对这两组数据进行平稳性检验、协整检验和SUR回归分析。结果表明:FDI额度和份额对服务经济的影响与其行业关联度强弱关系不大,相较于中间投入性,关联机制并不显著。并指出问题的症结在于跨国公司进行直接投资的目标和国家吸收利用外资的目标不一致。     

Effects of Location Diversification and Corporate Governance on Multinational Enterprises' Financial Performance and Risk‐taking: Evidence from Taiwanese Enterprises

This study investigates the location choice performance of foreign direct investment (FDI) originating from small‐ and medium‐sized multinational enterprises established in newly industrialized economies. In this study we integrate location diversification, breadth and corporate governance to examine the performance of Taiwanese enterprises investing in Chinese mainland. Examining Taiwanese manufacturing enterprises from foundational, traditional and high‐technology aspects, our findings demonstrate the following: (i) diversifying the location choice negatively affects the return of assets; (ii) investments in regions with an abundant population positively affect the performance of Taiwanese traditional manufacturing enterprises; and (iii) a higher percentage of insider holdings in Taiwanese enterprises results in better FDI performance. We conclude that the performance of FDI originating from Taiwanese enterprises varies depending on industrial and governance characteristics. We suggest that the location choice for Taiwan FDI in Chinese mainland should be determined by the characteristics of the industry. Chinese mainland should attract multinational enterprises from emerging markets according to the characteristics of regions.     

FDI对产业集群作用的实证研究——以江苏省制造业产业集群为例

文章以江苏省制造业产业集群为例,采用实证的方法研究了FDI与产业集群之间的关系。结果表明,江苏省制造业产业集群具有较强的路径依赖效应,而FDI的进入强化了这种路径依赖。文章实证结果表明,FDI对劳动密集型及资本、技术密集型产业集群有促进作用,但没有发现FDI显著地促进了江苏省资本密集型产业集群的发展。这个结果一个可能的解释就是跨国公司在江苏资本密集型产业的投资低于其在加工组装型制造业中的投资。     

FDI对我国电子工业生产率的行业内溢出效应研究——以1996—2001年43个细分行业为例

本文考察了外资对中国电子工业劳动生产率的影响。利用1996—2001年期间电子行业的9大部门和43个细分行业的面板数据,并按照无形资产比率、出口比率和国有资本比率对43个细分行业进行了分组检验,我们发现,1996—2001年期间中国电子工业的劳动生产率呈现明显的外商直接投资的溢出效应,并且在不同的行业呈现较大的波动。在无形资产比率高、出口比率高、国有资本比率高的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用显著,而在国有资本比率低、技术含量低的行业,外资对劳动生产率的促进作用不显著。国有企业在促进劳动生产率提高方面具有积极作用,说明国营企业引进外资是一种长期有效的学习跨国公司经验的途径。而且,跨国公司通常被高生产率的电子行业所吸引,在这些行业溢出效应明显存在,但对于一些外资比率低的电子行业,这种正溢出效应不显著。

Abstract：

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment（FDI）on the labor productivity of China’s electronics industry. Using panel data of 9 major sectors and 43 sub-sectorsof the electronics industry during the period 1996—2001,and doing group test according to the ratio of intangible assets,the export ratio and the state-owned capital ratio of the 43 sub-sectors,we find that during 1996—2001,labor productivity of the Chinese electronics industry showed significant spillover effects of FDI and large fluctuations in different industries. In industries that have high intangible assets ratio,high export ratio and high state-owned capital ratio,FDI played a more significant role in promoting labor productivity than in industries that have low state—owned capital ratio and low technology contents. State-owned enterprises has a positive effect in promoting labor productivity,indicating that introducing foreign investment is an effective long term route to learn transnational corporations’ experience for state-owned enterprises. Moreover,transnational corporations are always attracted to higher productivity sub-sectors,implying significant spillover effects in these industries,while in sub-sectors with low rate of foreign invest-ment,the spillover effect is not significant.     

FDI对中国收入分配差距的影响及对策——基于多维变量基础上的实证研究

FDI对中国城乡总量收入差距之间并不存在关联,但与人均收入差距有着明显的正相关关系。FDI与地区生产总值的差异存在很大关联,但只在东部和中部地区以及东部和西部地区的实证数据得到验证。FDI和产业生产总值的差距,由于FDI在第二产业上的大量存在,使得一、二产业和二、三产业间的现象比较明显。正因为FDI对地区和行业收入分配的复杂影响,加上FDI的溢出效应、产业和劳动力转移等因素,使得FDI和全国基尼系数之间的关联并不显著,FDI并不是全国收入分配差距拉大的重要变量。因此,为更好地利用FDI,发挥其对收入分配的积极影响,应鼓励和引导外商投资企业在中西部地区投资,进一步降低外资在某些产业上的进入门槛,培育和壮大国内民营企业。     

我国对外直接投资的产业选择研究——基于产业结构优化视角

我国对外直接投资的产业选择关系到我国对外经济活动的宏观经济效益,具有重要意义。我国对外直接投资产业选择的目标应定位为满足国内产业发展的内在需求,促进我国产业结构的优化与升级。目前,我国对外直接投资的重点产业选择应是比较优势产业、关联效应强的产业、高新技术产业以及服务业。