The changing distribution of earnings in Ireland, 1937 to 1968

Data from the Irish Census of Industrial Production are used to illuminate changes in the distribution of earnings from 1937 to 1968, an important period in Irish economic history, relevant to debates about globalization and inequality. Between the late 1930s and mid‐1950s there was a greater compression of earnings than in the US's ‘great compression’ of the same period. Sectoral data suggest that this occurred quite generally. The degree of integration with the British labour market is key, and the impact of out‐migration, wage controls during the Second World War, and industrial protection all merit in‐depth investigation.     

Serbia on the path to modern economic growth

Given the scanty and inadequate studies on Serbia's growth performance before the First World War, this paper presents production-side GDP estimates for Serbia for six years between 1867 and 1910. It probes into the growth dynamics, assessing convergence with the more developed countries of north-western Europe, as well as progress towards achieving modern economic growth. Although the economy showed some dynamism in terms of overall GDP, per capita GDP in pre-First World War Serbia grew by only 0.28 per cent per annum, as much of the overall GDP growth was eroded by rapid population growth. Far from converging with north-western Europe, Serbia continued to fall behind. Sluggish structural transformation and slow income per capita growth suggest that Serbia's transition to modern economic growth was in its infancy. Growth in the dominant agricultural sector was extensive, driven by expanding arable land and population growth. Land was affordable and easy to obtain; hence, peasants invested little in new technologies. Meanwhile, the modern industrial and service sectors were below a threshold that could sustain rapid growth. Nevertheless, this study also highlights the rapid expansion of a small modern sector and export diversification that reflected emergent ‘green shoots’ in 1905–10.     

The limiting factor: energy,growth, and divergence, 1820–1913

On the basis of a new series on the consumption of traditional and modern sources of energy between 1820 and 1913, this article addresses the start of modern growth and the great divergence on the world scale. Since the beginning of the nineteenth century, the greater availability of modern energy sources expanded working capacity well beyond the potential of previous agricultural civilizations. Growth of energy consumption rose primarily in western Europe, northern America, and Oceania. As a result, labour productivity rose, leading to an increase in real wages, which was an incentive to replace labour with mechanical engines. The higher energy consumption in these three macro-areas led to global inequality in productive capacity and technology which peaked on the eve of the First World War.     

Inequality in turbulent times: income distribution in Germany and Britain, 1900–50

Using social tables, this article provides new data on inequality in Germany and Britain on an annual basis for the first half of the twentieth century. Inequality trends in these two countries tended to follow opposite patterns. The decline in inequality in Germany was interrupted during the First World War and the Nazi period, while in Britain the reversal took place between the end of the First World War and the Great Depression. Results show that the drop in inequality during the twentieth century in Europe did not follow secular trends, thus supporting the notion of inequality cycles.     

Power and plenty: Trade,war and the world economy in the second millennium

Abstract

Under the Treaty of Vienna of 1864 Denmark lost the Duchies of Schleswig, Holstein and Lauenburg, and it was not until the peace treaty at the end of the First World War that the Danish areas of North Schleswig (South Jutland) were returned, after a referendum, to the realm. Fifty years after the re-union Miss Askgård has investigated the industrialisation of South Jutland. The resulting book, which illuminates a hitherto neglected aspect of the turbulent history of this border territory, is based on a winning entry for the Copenhagen University Geography Prize for 1967.     

INTEGRATING THE HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE NINETEENTH-CENTURY GOLD RUSHES

In the century preceding World War I, the world experienced a series of gold rushes. The wealth derived from these was distributed widely because of reduced migration costs and low barriers to entry. While gold mining itself was generally unprofitable for diggers and mine owners, the increase in the world's gold supply stimulated global trade and investment. In this introductory article we integrate the histories of migration, trade, colonisation, and environmental history to identify endogenous factors that increased the world's gold supply and generated sustained economic growth in the regions that were affected by gold rushes.     

Warfare and Economic Inequality: Evidence from Preindustrial Germany (c. 1400-1800)

What was the impact of military conflict on economic inequality? I argue that ordinary military conflicts increased local economic inequality. Warfare raised the financial needs of communities in preindustrial times, leading to more resource extraction from the population. This resource extraction happened via inequality-promoting channels, such as regressive taxation. Only in truly major wars might inequality-reducing destruction outweigh inequality-promoting extraction and reduce inequality. To test this argument I construct a novel panel dataset combining information about economic inequality in 75 localities, and more than 700 conflicts over four centuries. I find that the many ordinary conflicts — paradigmatic of life in the preindustrial world — were continuous reinforcers of economic inequality. I confirm that the Thirty Years’ War was indeed a great equaliser, but this was an exception and not the rule. Rising inequality is an underappreciated negative externality in times of conflict.     

What happened to regional inequality in Britain in the twentieth century?

New estimates of regional GDP for Great Britain in the twentieth century differ from those of Crafts but confirm his hypothesis of a U‐shaped regional inequality curve between 1911 and 2001. Comparison of these estimates with revised estimates for 1861–1911 suggests that the decline in inequality in the first half of the twentieth century forms part of a trend of declining regional inequality and catch‐up of the poorer regions with the richest (the South East) dating back to the 1860s at least. This convergence trend was interrupted by the First World War and the subsequent difficulties of Outer Britain in the 1920s when the gap between the South East and the rest widened. However, sometime after 1931 it picked up again. Since 1971 inequality has worsened and catch‐up has stopped; indeed, there has been divergence of the South East from the rest. This divergence has been especially marked since 1991. Although growth for all regions was faster during the period of increasing regional inequality that encompasses the second half of the twentieth century, the golden age of economic growth for regions outside the South East occurred during the long boom following the Second World War.     

War,food rationing,and socioeconomic inequality in Germany during the First World War

Germany experienced a devastating period during the First World War due to severely restricted import possibilities and a general shortage of foodstuffs. This study uses the heights of some 4,000 individuals who served during the Second World War to quantify biological living standards from the 1900s to the 1920s, and focuses primarily on socioeconomic inequality during this period. The results suggest that generally the upper social strata, measured by fathers' occupation, exhibited the tallest average height, followed by the middle and lower classes. These socioeconomic differences became more pronounced during the First World War when the rationing system provided a limited food supply. Wealthier individuals were able to purchase additional foodstuffs on black markets. Therefore, children from upper‐class families experienced only a small decline in average height compared to their counterparts from the middle and lower social strata.     

The colonial roots of land inequality: geography,factor endowments,or institutions?

Land inequality is one of the crucial underpinnings of long‐run persistent wealth and asset inequality. This article assesses the colonial roots of land inequality from a comparative perspective. The evolution of land inequality is analysed in a cross‐colonial multivariate regression framework complemented by an in‐depth comparative case study of three former British colonies: Malaysia, Sierra Leone, and Zambia. The main conclusion is that the literature tends to overemphasize the role of geography and to underestimate the role of pre‐colonial institutions in shaping the colonial political economic context in which land is (re)distributed from natives to colonial settlers.     

数字金融、家庭财富与共同富裕

文章使用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了数字金融对家庭财富积累、财富不平等的影响。研究发现:(1)在考虑了内生性问题的影响后,数字金融能够显著促进家庭财富积累,经过使用多种方法进行稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。(2)创业和配置风险金融资产是数字金融影响家庭财富的重要渠道。(3)财富规模越小的家庭,使用数字金融产生的创富作用越大,并且老年人、低教育程度、低收入水平、农业户口群体家庭和农村居民家庭使用数字金融能够产生更大的创富作用。总的来说,财富是富裕的题中之义,数字金融能够在提升家庭财富总体水平的基础上缓解财富不平等,从而有利于实现共同富裕。文章的研究发现为推动共同富裕提供了政策参考依据。     

Research into the distribution of prosperity. A Danish comment on some Swedish contributions

Abstract

Economic historians studying the very recent past have in the 19505 and 1960s to a large extent chosen to deal with problems connected with economic growth. This is doubtless explained by the pattem of development in Westem economies where govemments showed themselves capable of bringing productive capacity and demand so closely into balance that unemployment was reduced to a fraction of its interwar level. The whole problem of distribution—who should bear how much of the consequences of unemployment and of the other defects of society—accordingly became a secondary consideration in economic and political debate. In its place there was growing interest in how rapidly productive capacity could be raised, and the total amount of goods and services available to the public thus increased. This interest was undoubtedly stimulated by the successful industrialisation of the Soviet Union in the 1930s, the liberation of the colonies after the Second World War, and the growth of intemational communications, all emphasising the problem of what determines vigorous and widespread expansion in national production. Many economic historians in Scandinavia and elsewhere were influenced by economists such as Harrod and Demar, Cobb and Douglas, Kaldor, Solow and Rostow who attempted to answer the question. In both economics and economic history an increasing proportion of the available research capacity was devoted to projects connected with economic growth.     

Taking over: a new appraisal of the Anglo-American productivity gap and the nature of American economic leadership ca. 1910

This article re-examines how and when the USA closed the gap and ultimately overtook the UK in terms of both labour productivity and real income. On the basis of a set of sectoral productivity benchmarks for the year 1910 – which utilise a more rigorous methodology than previous pre-First World War productivity studies – I find a substantial USA lead in both agriculture as well as industry. I conclude that the relative strength of the American economy has been underestimated by Maddison and various other scholars. This study suggests that the USA had challenged British economic leadership in terms of relative labour productivity as well as relative income levels long before 1900, and not thereafter. This finding ties into an ongoing heated debate on the timing of the Anglo-American takeover.     

Living costs,real incomes and inequality in colonial Jamaica

This paper provides the first quantitative assessment of colonial Jamaican real incomes and income inequality. We collect local prices to construct cost of living and purchasing power parity indicators. The latter lowers Jamaica's GDP per capita compared with the rest of the Atlantic economy. We also compute welfare ratios for a range of occupations and build a social table. We find that, being a net food importer, the slave colony had extremely high living costs, which rose steeply during the American War of Independence, and low standards of living, particularly for its enslaved population, but also for the free unskilled population that competed with slave labor. Our results also show that due to its extreme poverty for the many in the middle of great wealth for the few, Jamaica was the most unequal place yet studied in the pre-modern world. Furthermore, all of these characteristics applied to the free population alone.     

Wealth and credit in the Finnish countryside, 1850–1910

Abstract

In Finland, the early phase of industrialisation, that period of transition when trade and industry began to assume modern form, commenced around the middle of the nineteenth century. A legislative programme of economic liberalism was implemented: steam sawmills were permitted, the customs system reformed, foreign trade freed from controls and rural trade allowed. The supply of credit to farming was eased by the mortgage credit institute. The Free Trade Act of 1879 was based on completely free entrepreneurial activity. These measures, together with exogenous economic factors, stimulated new economic and intellectual forces.¹     

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits,inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War1

Making profits in wartime: corporate profits, inequality, and GDP in Germany during the First World War. This article reconsiders, and rejects, Kocka's (1973) hypothesis that a strong income redistribution from workers to capital owners occurred in Germany during the First World War. A small number of firms profited from the war, but the majority experienced a decline in real income, similar to the decline in workers' real wages. This finding also has important implications for the political history of the Weimar Republic. The authors also use their figures to improve German GDP estimates for the war period, since their sample makes it possible to estimate private service sector development. Economic indicators were worse for the war year of 1917 than previously believed.     

‘Where there Aren't no Ten Commandments…’

Abstract

The changes in income distribution ensuing from industrialisation constituted subject of lively interest towards the end of the 19th century. We might say that the main problem in the discussions at the time was whether Marx was right in maintaining that industrialisation would make the condition of the working class even more miserable, or whether Bernstein was right in maintaining the opposite. These discussions took place mostly in Germany. The distribution of income was again taken up as a subject for discussion on a larger scale in the 1950s, when Simon Kuznets suggested that industrialisation first increases the concentration of income which will, however, even out later on. In literature on economic growth, reference is also often made to the importance of income inequality for the accumulation of capital necessary for economic expansion. The former tradition was in Finland represented by Heikki Renvall through his studies on changes in income distribution in the largest cities. Adherents of the latter tradition are Riitta Hjerppe and John Lefgren who have written an article on features of the long-term development of income distribution in Finland.¹ During the last ten years, historical research into income distribution have again gained in popularity, inspired especially by the studies carried out by Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson.²     

Accumulation and discrimination in the postbellum South

Economic inequality between blacks and whites in the postbellum South can be attributed to two factors: racial discrimination and the absence of any redistribution of tangible wealth to accompany emancipation. This paper shows that the freedmen's initial lack of property was the most important cause of race-related income differences. The initial wealth gap between the freedmen and the whites was large enough to guarantee that a great deal of income inequality would have persisted long after emancipation, even if all markets had functioned perfectly. In addition, the actual rate at which the economic distance between blacks and whites was being reduced suggests the existence of forces which lengthened the time required to eradicate the effects of the initial wealth inequality.     

Surplus mobilisation in farm agriculture: A comparison of Java and Japan, 1870–1940

This paper compares the degree to which farm agriculture surpluses in pre–World War II Java and Japan were mobilised for non-agricultural investment through taxation, landlordism and private savings. It also compares government efforts in both countries to spur productivity and farm income in rice agriculture through improvements in irrigation structures and the development and dissemination of seedfertiliser technology. The pressure of the land tax, the spread of tenant farming, and the degree to which rural savings were deposited were significantly lower in Java than in Japan. Pre-war conditions in rice agriculture were less conducive in Java than they were in Japan to the development and dissemination of seed-fertiliser technology, which could spur farm productivity and contribute to surplus mobilisation.