“中小企业科技金融创新”专题之八 中小上市公司信用风险评估实证分析

本文通过利用财务指标比率法对273家深市中小上市公司2005-2008年整体信用风险水平进行评估,根据财务指标数据对目前中小上市公司的信用风险进行实效的研究,实时地反映中小上市公司当前的信用状况。有利于投资者、信用风险管理者及时地发现公司信用风险而进行规避或者降低信用风险所带来的损失,以及为监管机构建立合理有效的财务预警系统。     

基于KMV模型的中国制造业上市公司信用风险评价

经济新常态下,经济增长速度逐渐放缓,但日益重视发展质量。制造业作为资本密集型行业,避免违约风险不仅有利于公司可持续发展,也对降低系统性金融风险起到重要作用。以A股制造业70家上市公司为样本,以2018年10月1日到2019年9月30日为一个计算周期,运用KMV模型实证分析上市公司的股权价值波动率、资产价值波动率、信用违约距离和信用违约概率。结果表明,0.03可以作为制造业上市公司违约概率的临界点,超过0.03则可以判定该公司具有一定的信用风险。同时,将违约概率区间进行划分,划定信用等级。最后针对不同的问题提出解决方案和建议。     

基于判别分析和logistic回归分析的城市商业银行信用风险度量

信用风险，指的是在商业交易中由于交易一方的违约，使交易另一方应得的预期现金流量的现值减少而遭受损失的风险。信用风险是商业银行面临的主要风险之一，信用风险的度量是商业银行进行信用管理的核心问题，对信用风险的准确度量和有效管理，有利于商业银行经营的安全性，也有利于金融体系整体的稳定和国民经济的持续健康发展。     

基于KMV模型的新疆上市公司信用风险度量研究

本文根据新疆实际修正了KMV模型,以发生亏损的新疆上市公司为违约组,在西北五省中按资产相近原则选取了对照组,验证了修正后模型的有效性,并说明了发生亏损企业的信用风险相对较大。度量新疆上市公司信用风险后发现:股价波动率、债务结构影响新疆上市公司信用风险;产能过剩行业明显大于其他行业的企业信用风险;创新会明显改善企业的信用风险大小;且与我国整体情况不同的是新疆涉农上市公司信用风险较小。建议新疆上市公司应优化债务结构和提升创新能力,尽快完成传统产业转型升级,同时金融机构要关注上市公司信用风险变化,并要大力支持创新型企业发展。     

试析中小商业银行的信用风险防范

信用风险管理是我国中小商业银行的核心竞争力,进一步提高信用风险管理水平,对于防范和化解中小商业银行金融风险意义深远,本文试图分析我国中小商业银行信用风险相关问题,便于支持我国中小商业银行可持续发展.     

试析中小商业银行的信用风险防范

信用风险管理是我国中小商业银行的核心竞争力，进一步提高信用风险管理水平，对于防范和化解中小商业银行金融风险意义深远。本文试图分析我国中小商业银行信用风险相关问题，便于支持我国中小商业银行可持续发展。     

保险公司信用风险研究

信用风险一直是银行业面临的主要风险，主要指银行信贷方面的风险。保险公司和银行一样都是负债经营的金融机构，本身就面临着信用风险的冲击。随着保险公司的各种资本在资本市场的份额越来越大(主要指养老金和寿险)、保险公司资金运作的重视以及各种信用保证保险(包括车贷险，住房按揭保险等)的出现，信用风险对保险公司变得更为重要。特别是自2001年来全球经济萧条，安然、世通电讯等公司纷纷倒闭，信用风险又创新高。继90年代的信用危机高潮之后，2002年的违约率高达12％，使不少保险公司蒙受了巨大的损失。例如，最近在我国频繁暴光的车贷险的信用风险给产险公司带来的损失是十分巨大的，给保险公司带来了很大的影响。     

金融危机背景下我国商业银行对信贷风险的防范

美国次贷危机已演变成为了全球性的金融危机，于此同时我国商业银行的信贷扩张积累了较大的风险，金融危机的冲击将贷款者信用风险的集中爆发，也会使房地产市场发展的不确定性风险加大等问题完全暴露。我国商业银行必须采取措施，提前防范其对银行体系内信贷所产生的不良影响，严格控制贷款者的信用级别，增强银行自身的流动性，加强金融创新监管，以全面保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

KMV模型对我国房地产上市公司信用风险度量的实证研究

本文根据我国房地产上市公司独有的特点,运用修正后的KMV模型,选取沪市29家上市公司的数据,对其信用风险进行了度量,并对可能引起信用风险的因素进行实证研究。     

Logit模型对新材料领域上市公司的信用风险评估

文章选取了几家新材料领域中的上市公司,通过对其年报各种财务指标的处理,建立了上市公司信用情况的Logit模型,利用该模型可以对上市公司一年后的信用情况进行预测和评估。文章拓展了logit模型在新材料领域中预测信用风险方面的应用,结论表明新材料领域上市公司的盈利能力是信用风险的最关键因素。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

文化传播中电视暴力对青少年侵犯行为的影响

伴随当代传媒产业的蓬勃发展,暴力也成为影视艺术基本的叙事类型及消费主义文化日趋盛行的现实语境。＂电视暴力＂是作为＂媒介暴力＂的一个子概念存在的;从文化传播看电视暴力,其覆盖面大,且易于接触;电视暴力对受众特别是青少年的影响巨大而深刻。要从制作者、传播者和观众三个方面的自律出发,建立适应我国国情的影视分级制。     

理性与先验的完美整合——论笛卡尔的"上帝"观

笛卡尔是西方近代主体性哲学的先驱,是近代唯理论学说的创始人,他使人们从中世纪宗教势力的禁锢中解放了出来.虽然"上帝"这个被人们视为理性最大敌人的概念在他的哲学中大量存在,但他极力证明上帝存在的最终目的却是为了证明理性的伟大;作为真理化身的上帝,归根到底是为他的理性主义服务的.