杭州居民住房需求的收入弹性分析

本文以收入弹性理论为基础,对杭州住宅市场进行实证分析。结果表明,杭州市居民住房需求收入弹性为0.481,说明住房对杭州居民来说仍为基本消费品;对不同收入家庭的分组估计结果表明,随着收入增加,收入弹性呈现先上升后下降的趋势。     

对上海市住房市场的实证非均衡分析

文章首先通过理论分析表明,住房市场是一个非均衡的市场。随后把上海短期住房市场分为增量房和存量房两个市场,运用非均衡市场的供需函数模型对其进行了定量实证分析。结果表明住房市场的非均衡程度很高,因为上海住房市场中需求缺乏价格弹性,而对未来房价的预期使得投资需求的     

青岛市居民收入与消费结构分析

居民的收入与消费问题始终是社会各界密切关注的热点。青岛市作为一个旅游性城市,居民消费结构变动具有独特的特征。本文借助《青岛统计年鉴》(2000-2011)年的数据,通过分析青岛市居民消费支出比例变动的情况,展示居民消费结构的变化情况。运用ELES模型,分析青岛市居民的各项消费支出的边际消费倾向和需求收入弹性,进一步得出消费结构变动情况,并分析其中的原因。针对目前青岛市居民消费中存在的问题,提出对策和建议,以促进青岛市居民消费结构优化升级,并拉动经济增长。     

对上海市住房市场非均衡性的实证分析

本文首先通过理论分析表明,住房市场是一个非均衡的市场。随后把上海短期住房市场分为增量房和存量房两个市场,运用非均衡市场的供需函数模型对其进行了定量实证分析。结果表明住房市场的非均衡程度很高,因为上海住房市场中需求缺乏价格弹性,而对未来房价的预期使得投资需求的比重明显上升,同时供给的响应相对较慢,加之囤积土地现象的存在,加剧了住房市场非均衡的程度。     

我国财产险市场结构及需求收入弹性分析

文章在对市场集中度和HHI指数统计观察的基础上,对我国财产险的市场结构进行分析,进而以财产险的收入需求弹性衡量市场的发展程度,并与国际经验数据进行比对.考察了市场集中度和收入弹性之间的关系,并指出我国财产险的市场集中度与收入弹性的发展情况.     

房价收入比实证分析研究——以保定市为例

房价收入比是目前国际上常用来衡量城市房价水平、居民住房消费能力和房地产业健康发展的综合指标。文章在房价收入相关理论基础上,以保定市房地产市场为例,采用按各收入阶层房价收入比加权平均的计算方法,得出了保定市房价收入比,并以此客观认识和正确评价保定市房地产市场的发展。     

“鬼城”下的蜗居：收入不平等与房地产泡沫北大核心CSSCI

最近十余年,中国城市房价增长速度远超居民收入增长速度,引发房价泡沫化担忧。本文的理论研究表明,收入不平等程度加大是导致城市房价收入比和空置率上升的重要原因。基于国家统计局城市住户调查数据(UHS)的经验研究也支持理论发现,主要表现为:收入基尼系数每增加1个百分点,房价收入比和住房空置率分别提高0.026个单位和0.143个百分点。2002-2009年,基尼系数的上升至少解释了同时期房价收入比和住房空置率增幅的约6%和11%。进一步研究表明,发展资本市场和住房租赁市场有助于减弱收入不平等的影响,降低房价收入比和住房空置率。     

我国城乡大米消费弹性分析

本文在对我国大米城乡消费现状分析的基础上,根据1991—2008年大米消费的时间序列数据,分别构建农村地区和城市地区大米消费需求经验方程,采用普通最小二乘法进行数据分析和方程估计,测算我国城乡大米需求的收入弹性、价格弹性和需求替代弹性,结果表明,农村和城市地区大米需求价格弹性和收入弹性均为负值,而替代弹性为正,这表明随着中国城乡居民收入的提高,我国城乡居民粮食消费结构正发生变化,大米消费在城乡居民消费中所占比例呈现下降的趋势。     

经济适用房住户满意度及其影响因素分析——基于北京市1184位住户的调查

中国住房制度自1998年改革以来,经济适用房在保障中低收入家庭基本住房需求的同时,也暴露出了严重的缺陷。本文在对2007年北京市经济适用房住户调查数据进行描述的基础上,利用多元排序Probit模型对影响经济适用房住户居住和生活满意度的主要因素进行了实证检验。结论显示不同群体的住房意向各不相同,由此揭示出政府建立定期住房普查制度,及时掌握居民住房需求并以此为基础制定住房政策的必要性。分析结果显示经济适用房选址布局不当加剧了职住分离和居住区的社会阶层分隔,并使得经济适用房政策更像是政府激励居民迁出市中心的一种工具。     

从农产品的需求弹性看农业市场风险

市场经济的发展给农业的市场化提供了良好的发展平台,但与此同时,市场经济带给农业的风险也是不可忽略的重要方面。如何规避农业市场风险不仅成为市场经济本身不断发展和完善的标志,而且会直接影响到中国农业的可持续发展与社会经济的全面进步。本文从农产品需求价格弹性、需求收入弹性的角度,分析了农业市场风险存在的具体表现及其原因,并从需求弹性的角度出发,提出了应对农业市场风险的相关建议。     

Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach

In this study we apply a random utility modeling framework to analyze housing demand in the city of Shanghai. A Multinomial Logit Model taking account of latent choice sets is employed to investigate the impact of household characteristics, such as income, size and age composition, on the choice of dwelling, specified by location, size and unit price. In addition to the price and income effects on housing demand, the model identifies a quality indicator for dwelling attributes, which can be interpreted as the mean attractiveness in a money metric measure.The data used in this study are cross-sectional survey data. The estimated model is used to calculate demand elasticities and demand probabilities, for selected groups of households and types of dwellings. Among the results can be noted that the price–income ratios, the age composition and size of household are all important determinants of the demand. The impact of income distribution on housing demand is also studied.     

Are house prices too high in China?

This short note defines a new measurement of housing affordability in terms of permanent income. Using this new measurement, we find that housing affordability in China is very strong relative to other developed economies, although the ratio of housing prices to current income in China is much higher than those of developed nations.     

Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

Does Homeownership Lead to Longer Unemployment Spells? The Role of Mortgage Payments

This paper examines the impact of housing tenure choice on unemployment duration in Belgium using EU-SILC micro data. We contribute to the literature in distinguishing homeowners with mortgage payments and outright homeowners. Accounting for tenure endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity, we find that homeowners with a mortgage exit unemployment first, while outright owners stay unemployed the longest. Tenants take an intermediate position. Our results emphasize the key role of housing costs in the link between housing tenure and labour market outcomes. Considered together with the results of recent macroeconomic research on housing and employment in Belgium, this paper provides indirect evidence for significant negative effects of homeownership on the labour market and the economy beyond the owners themselves.     

再议因患寡而患不均:中国家庭住宅权属差异及其对内需增长的影响

住宅权属差异导致了家庭住宅财富差异,进而影响了家庭消费偏好.本文基于一个非住宅耐用品消费决策的随机最优控制模型,采用1991—2006年 CHNS 数据并运用动态面板数据模型,考察了家庭住宅权属差异对耐用品消费的影响.本文的主要发现是,同理论预期一致,自有住宅家庭的耐用品消费明显高于租住房屋家庭,而且住宅权属消费效应随着家庭脆弱性增强而下降.本文的政策含义是要通过降低家庭脆弱性、创新保障性住房分配模式来缩小居民住宅权属差异和促进消费增长     

The impact of the rise and collapse of Japan's housing price bubble on households’ lifetime utility

This study estimates the impact of the dramatic changes in housing prices during Japan's bubble from the late 1980s to the 1990s on households’ asset accumulation and utility over their life cycle. We construct a life-cycle model explaining households’ consumption/saving and housing decisions under collateral and borrowing constraints. We estimate this model using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), which includes data on households’ housing wealth estimated from objective information. Using the estimated model, we then conduct a counterfactual simulation in which we assume that housing prices remained constant during the bubble period. Doing so allows us to quantify the gains/losses of lifetime utility due to the housing price boom and bust. We find that 72.2% of the households experienced an average decrease in lifetime utility equivalent to 5.7% of lifetime income. On average, Japan's housing price boom and bust caused a loss in lifetime utility equivalent to 4.7% of lifetime income. Moreover, we compare the impact of the housing price bubble across cohorts and find that the impact was greatest for those who experienced the bubble at ages 35–45.     

Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

There are many projections for China's food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice, and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases, except for wheat, which increases. Taking this into account, differences between consumption projections based on time-varying income elasticities and values based on constant elasticities are substantial in quantities and increase over time.     

Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China

The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.     

贸易自由化与中国劳动需求弹性:基于制造业企业数据的实证分析

本文采用中国制造业企业1998-2007年的微观面板数据,研究贸易自由化对企业劳动需求弹性的影响.我们将中国加入世界贸易组织视为一次自然实验,以加工进口企业为“控制组”,以一般进口企业为“处理组”,采用倍差法和固定效应模型进行回归分析.结果显示,贸易自由化通过提高资本品和中间产品的可获得性,显著提高了劳动需求弹性.进口关税下降越多,企业的劳动需求弹性提高也越多.     

Population Aging and Housing Consumption： A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,