粤港澳服务贸易自由化路径研究

随着内地与港澳更紧密贸易关系安排（CEPA）政策的出台,粤港澳经济合作特别是服务业合作进入新的发展阶段。针对这一现实,本文从服务贸易自由化等概念出发,基于完全竞争市场和规模报酬不变假设下的生产者服务贸易自由化模型,根据香港与内地生产者服务贸易特点的相关变量,对CEPA政策实施的生产者服务贸易自由化进行实证研究;分析了粤港澳服务贸易自由化的现状、问题及现实路径。研究表明,大力引进港澳服务业,特别是香港的金融服务业,切实促进前海、横琴等试验区发展,全面落实相关政策的衔接以及相应纳税政策是促进三区域服务贸易自由化的主要路径。     

贸易政策的变化及其对贸易流量的影响

改革开放三十年来,我国一直执行有管理的渐进式自由化贸易政策,强调政府对贸易的干预,其核心在于对大多数产业实行渐进式的自由化贸易政策,对少数产业实行较低保护与温和出口鼓励政策,这样就可以实现贸易自由化和贸易保护的双重目标①。本文从"较低进口保护"——关税政策和"温和出口鼓励"——出口退税政策两方面进行局部和一般均衡的理论与实证考察。通过研究发现,我国的海关税则与贸易政策基本同步变动,表明关税是我国一项很重要的制度性政策;而政府在实施出口退税政策时更加注重其对贸易流量影响的短期效应。     

反倾销本质之探讨

在经济全球化与各国经济发展竞争日趋激烈的今天,对倾销的制裁和反倾销指控的提起已经在很大程度上演变为一种进行贸易保护、保护本国市场的博弈手段。一、反倾销本质的贸易政策分析1.两种对外贸易政策交替否定的本质历史的车轮已经将人类推向了一个经济全球化的时代。随着国家间经贸合作关系进一步加强,经济全球化已势不可挡。经济全球化的重要特征在于经济自由化、贸易自由化。在这场自由化运动的背后,发达国家始终担任着主要的角色,但从主要发达国家贸易政策发展历史来看,贸易自由化的主题并非自始至终一成不变的。实际上,保护贸易几乎贯…     

贸易政策的变化及其对贸易流星的影响

改革开放三十年来，我国一直执行有管理的渐进式自由化贸易政策，强调政府对贸易的干预，其核心在于对大多数产业实行渐进式的自由化贸易政策，对少数产业实行较低保护与温和出口鼓励政策，这样就可以实现贸易自由化和贸易保护的双重目标。本文从“较低进口保护”——关税政策和“温和出口鼓励”——出口退税政策两方面进行局部和一般均衡的理论与实证考察。通过研究发现，我国的海关税则与贸易政策基本同步变动，表明关税是我国一项很重要的制度性政策；而政府在实施出口退税政策时更加注重其对贸易流量影响的短期效应。     

具有内生比较优势的李嘉图模型和贸易政策分析

在这篇文章里,我们把交易成本和内生比较优势引进到李嘉图模型中,考察了政府对不同的贸易政策机制的选择。有趣的结果是均衡的贸易政策和国际分工水平有紧密的关系,如果完全国际分工,政府之间会进行贸易谈判,谈判的结果是贸易自由化,如果部分国际分工,均衡的贸易政策是由纳什关税对策导致的单边贸易保护和单边贸易自由化共存。     

贸易自由化政策与产业经济安全研究

本文通过理论模型分析了不同发达程度国家间的贸易自由化政策对产业经济安全的影响。文中选取的代表产业经济安全的指标为:非单一产品的产业集聚规模,经济增长率和社会福利状况。结论发现影响出口和进口成本的贸易自由化过程主要取决于发达国家及发展中国家具体采取的贸易政策:当自由化进程中的贸易政策使得更多种类的出口生产企业集聚于发达国家,那么两国的经济增长率和社会福利都会得到改善,而自由化政策若使得更多的生产企业集聚于发展中国家,则整个社会的经济增长率将下降,但发展中国家的福利会得到改善,同时与发达国家的贫富差距会缩小。     

金融发展的政治经济学——一个贸易的例证

发展金融市场与贸易自由化都可以促进一个国家的经济增长。然而,许多国家仍然对外资直接投资的行业做出了限制,同时对一些行业实施了各种保护政策抵御国外同类产品的竞争。本文研究了中国贸易自由化进程中的两个政策,结果显示行业的集中度与利润水平与国家保护性政策的制定密切相关,从而显示对外贸易政策以及金融政策制定的内生性。     

贸易自由化、汇率政策与中国宏观经济内部平衡

中国入世以后 ,必须按照相关协议进行进一步的贸易自由化。贸易自由化会对中国国内就业造成一定程度的冲击 ,这在当前中国失业下岗相对严重的形势下尤为引人关注。本文将建立一个简明的理论分析框架 ,研究中国贸易自由化过程中国内就业可能受到的冲击 ,以及汇率政策对维持就业水平稳定 ,即宏观经济内部平衡的重要性并对理论分析进行经验检验 ,之后提出政策建议。本文的基本结论是 ,中国以适度的名义汇率贬值政策配合贸易自由化改革 ,对于维持入世后中国宏观经济内部平衡是必要和有益的。     

贸易自由化对中国区域经济差距的影响分析

区域倾斜政策被普遍认为是沿海和内陆区域经济差距扩大的主要原因。本文则认为,由于沿海与内陆外向型经济内在发展条件悬殊,贸易自由化对两个区域的影响迥然不同。本文首先就贸易自由化对区域经济差距的影响机制进行了分析,认为贸易政策的变化对产业集聚有重要影响,而不同区域贸易参与度的差异也直接导致区域收入差距。继而从区域总体差距、区域差距的部门分解和制造业集聚三个方面,对实施贸易自由化以来区域经济不平衡的发展进行了实证分析。最后对贸易自由化和中国区域经济差距进行相关分析,结果表明二者高度相关。     

服务贸易自由化的综合经济效益分析

服务贸易自由化成为贸易一体化和世界贸易组织发展的一个重要目标。然而，有许多国家，尤其是发展中国家对服务贸易的经济效益提出了质疑，认为服务贸易自由化的提出只能为发达国家带来益处，是发达国家追寻自身利益．扩大贸易利益国际分配不公的一种手段。因此，有必要对服务贸易自由化的经济效益进行一个客观的分析，以便为各国制定服务贸易政策提供一个总的参考方向。     

Distortions of Sino-US and Sino-EU Safeguard Agreements： Effects on World Textile Markets

The effects of Sino‐US and Sino‐EU safeguard agreements on US, Chinese and world cotton and textile sectors are investigated using a partial equilibrium model. The effects are compared to a free trade scenario under the provisions of the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing. The two safeguard agreements capping Chinese textile exports would decrease China's textile and apparel exports, production, and domestic consumption by an average 1.57, 0.63 and 0.32 percent, respectively. The safeguard agreements cause an increase in the US cotton textile price index and a slight decrease in US net textile imports and textile consumption. The agreements cause a decrease in the world cotton price and the quantity of cotton traded, but these trends reverse at safeguard expiration. The results generally support the view that the safeguard agreements forestall the effects of free trade in textiles and apparel rather than creating long lasting shifts in the textile trade.     

加入WTO十年我国农产品进出口贸易的国际比较分析

本文利用联合国贸易与发展委员会官方网站上的统计资料,研究了我国五大类农产品的贸易发展及其在全球贸易中的变化,从而探讨我国农产品贸易在世界农产品贸易的地位及其变化。结果发现:一是我国农产品贸易增长较快,占世界农产品贸易的比重上升;二是大宗农产品中的油籽与植物油和棉花进口比重偏大;三是我国主要农产品进出口增长速度差异很大;四是我国部分农产品进出口增长速度波动较大。     

The Economic Determinants of the Number of Minority Farmers in the Southeast Region of the United States, 1969-1997

The primary purpose of this research was to identify and quantify the determinants of the number of minority farmers in the Southeast region of the United States during the time period, 1969 to 1997. A second objective was to determine the potential impacts of globalization and international trade agreements on the number of minority farmers in the Southeast region of the United States. Regression results indicated that the number of minority farm owners was responsive to the returns to agricultural labor relative to nonfarm labor returns, as well as to cotton and rice prices. An increase in the cotton price was associated with a smaller rate of minority migration out of agriculture in the Southeast region of the United States. To the extent that globalization is likely to result in higher cotton export prices, international agricultural trade agreements are likely to result in decreased movement of minority farmers out of agriculture in the Southeast region of the United States. A third objective was to compare occupational migration rates out of agriculture of minorities with farmers of all races in the Southeast region. The data demonstrate that minority farm owners exhibited distinctly different migration patterns relative to all farm owners during 1969–1997.     

Engineering and the First World War: A case study of the Lancashire cotton spinning machine industry

This paper investigates the impact of the First World War on one of the major British engineering industries - that of cotton textile machinery. From 1915 all the important firms came under direct Government control and were required to give priority to munitions manufacture. The consequent decline in machinery output combined with the disruptions to international trade drastically reduced exports. Since Britain was the foremost supplier to the world market, the growth of cotton manufacturing was directly affected. The varied response to this in the different markets forms the central focus of our study.     

Wages,prices, and technology in early Catalan industrialization

Catalonia was the only Mediterranean region among the early followers of the British industrial revolution. The roots of this process can be traced back to the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries when the Catalan economy became integrated into international trade, and a successful printed calico industry concentrated in the city of Barcelona. Although the factory system was largely adopted by the cotton industry in the 1840s, the diffusion of the spinning jenny in Catalonia had occurred earlier, in the 1790s. In line with Allen, this article explores whether relative factor prices played a role in the widespread adoption of the spinning jenny in Catalonia. First, series of real wages in Barcelona are supplied for the period 1500–1808. Second, the prices of labour and capital are compared and the potential profitability of the adoption of the spinning jenny is analysed. Findings show that although Catalonia was not a high wage economy in the way that Britain was in the second half of the eighteenth century, evidence from the cotton spinning sector confirms the relevance of relative factor prices in the adoption of new technology. Within the booming cotton sector after the 1780s, high wages created strong incentives for the adoption of the labour‐saving spinning jenny.     

De‐industrialization and re‐industrialization in the Middle East: reflections on the cotton industry in Egypt and in the Izmir region

This article presents an investigation of the process of decline and rebirth of textile manufacturing in two Middle Eastern regions, Egypt and the Izmir region, during the first wave of globalization (1850–1914). Through the application of the ‘Dutch disease’ model, it explores the linkages between terms of trade and industrialization. These are further related to the evolution of price transmission between domestic and global raw cotton markets. Findings indicate that different levels of market integration have contributed to diverging trajectories in industrial development in the two regions: while in Egypt the process of de‐industrialization was not reversed, in the Izmir region weaker international price transmission facilitated the creation of a nascent domestic textile industry. However, terms of trade patterns and relative price movements are only one of the causes that can explain the differences between the two regions.     

Slavery and Anglo-American capitalism revisited

British and American debates on the relationship between slavery and economic growth have had little interaction with each other. This article attempts intellectual arbitrage by joining these two literatures. The linkage turns on the neglected part two of the ‘Williams thesis’: that slavery and the slave trade, once vital for the expansion of British industry and commerce, were no longer needed by the nineteenth century. In contrast to recent assertions of the centrality of slavery for US economic development, the article argues that part two of the Williams thesis applies with equal force to nineteenth-century America. Unlike sugar, cotton required no large investments of fixed capital and could be cultivated efficiently at any scale, in locations that would have been settled by free farmers in the absence of slavery. Cheap cotton was undoubtedly important for the growth of textiles, but cheap cotton did not require slavery. The best evidence for this claim is that after two decades of war, abolition, and Reconstruction, cotton prices returned to their prewar levels. In both countries, the rise of anti-slavery sentiment was not driven by the prospect of direct economic benefits, but major economic interest groups acquiesced in abolition because they no longer saw slavery as indispensable.     

The Political Economy of Interwar Egyptian Cotton Policy

The optimal tariff was a central concern to economists and policymakers in interwar Egypt. The government took the position that Egypt conformed to the small-country assumption in world cotton markets. Using time-series and panel data for the period 1895–1939, this article demonstrates that Egyptian long-staple cotton commanded significant market power in international markets. An optimal export tariff would have encouraged economic diversification and generated huge government revenues, making it possible to finance industrialization plans. However, the burden of taxation would have been shared by Egyptian landlords and British interests. Thus, an optimal export tariff was incompatible with the goals of Egypt's ruling elite, who dictated the orientation of trade policy until the 1950s.     

Scottish,Irish, and imperial connections: Parliament,the three kingdoms,and the mechanization of cotton spinning in eighteenth‐century Britain1

This paper offers a new perspective on the emergence of machinery in the cotton spinning trade during the third quarter of the eighteenth century. It does so by examining the interplay between economic, political, and national interests within the early Hanoverian state. Changes in trading relationships between textile producers across the three kingdoms of England/Wales, Ireland, and Scotland created escalating supply‐side problems, which, by the 1760s, would precipitate a quest for solutions based on new technologies.     

Did Muhammad Ali foster industrialization in early nineteenth‐century Egypt?

Muhammad Ali, who ruled Egypt between 1805 and 1849, intervened in Egyptian markets in an attempt to foster industrialization, especially between 1812 and 1840. Like a modern marketing board, the state purchased agricultural commodities (cotton and wheat) at low prices and sold them on world markets at much higher prices, a policy equivalent to an export tax. Ali also replaced tax farming with his own land taxes. The revenues so derived were used in part to finance manufacturing investment and to build irrigation canals. In addition, Ali supplied flax and cotton at those cheap purchase prices to domestic textile manufacturing, thus subsidizing the industry. He also used non‐tariff barriers to exclude foreign competition from domestic markets. Were Ali's state‐led policies successful in fostering industry? The answer is no easier to extract from this phase of Egyptian history than from that of other poor countries at that time. This is because Egypt faced the same terms of trade boom typical of most poor commodity exporters, which was causing de‐industrialization everywhere else in the poor periphery. Ali picked a very difficult time to pursue his agenda, but we show that his policies were successful.