最低工资制度对劳动力市场影响的实证分析

本文对最低工资理论模型进行了拓展分析,并以深圳为案例分析了最低工资制度对区域就业的影响。在跨区域劳动力流动的情况下,区域劳动力市场均衡工资趋近最低工资标准,并且不会导致区域就业量的下降。     

Who Minimum Wage Increases Bite: An Analysis Using Monthly Data from the SIPP and the CPS

We use monthly data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Current Population Survey to estimate the effect of the minimum wage. Minimum wage increases significantly reduce the employment of the most vulnerable groups in the working-age population—young adults without a high school degree (aged 20-24), young black adults and teenagers (aged 16-24), and teenagers (aged 16-19). While we also find that minimum wage increases significantly reduce the overall employment of young adults and teenagers, these more vulnerable subpopulations are even more adversely affected.     

Effects of school closure on household labor supply: Evidence from rural China

This paper studies the effects of school closure on household labor supply exploiting China's large-scale rural primary school closing during the early 2000s. Using CHNS 1991–2011 and CHIP 2007–2008 datasets and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that school closure significantly increases the total annual income of mothers of primary school-aged children, which comes virtually entirely from increases in wage income, due to more participation, more working hours, and higher wage rates. This significant positive effect can plausibly be attributed to their migration responses: mothers engage in temporary rural-urban migration to care for children following school closure. We find no effects on fathers' income and migration behavior. Our study provides the first causal estimation of the impacts of school closure on household labor supply and sheds light on the migration decision-making of rural females.     

Legal Minimum Wages and Employment Duration

We estimate the effect of minimum wages on employment duration using event history data from the 1988-1994 rounds of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Existing literature takes two alternative tracks: Some studies predict reduced turnover due to rents created by minimum wages, others focus on the expected increase in turnover due to reduced job amenities and imperfect information. We find that for men, the net effect of a minimum wage depends on its magnitude relative to the typical wage in the local labor market. We find some evidence that where the minimum wage is low, separation rates for men hired at the minimum wage are reduced. We also find that as the relative value of the minimum wage rises, separation hazards increase. We interpret these findings as evidence that rents may accrue to minimum wage workers, but that the job matching process is undermined when the minimum wage binds.     

What is Behind Increasing Wage Inequality in Mexico?

We evaluate the impact of the educational expansion and changes in labor market institutions on wage inequality among Mexican workers using a simulation technique proposed by Knight and Sabot [The American Economic Review 73(5) (1983) 1132–1136]. We conclude that while increases in the relative rate of return of higher education would have induced an increase in wage inequality, changes in the composition of the educational distribution would have led to a stronger decline in wage inequality. Instead, increased wage inequality is largely explained by changes in Mexican labor market institutions; namely, unionization rate and minimum wages.     

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply,fertility and earnings of married women: the case of registered nurses

A simultaneous-equation model of labor supply, fertility, and earnings is developed and estimated for an important subset of the female population, married registered nurses (RNs). Measures of variables specific to married nurses age 21-64 are developed by aggregating observations on individual nurses or their families into Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) averages, from the 1-in-100 Public Use Sample of the 1970 Census of Population in the U.S. The sample was restricted in certain ways: the grouped observations apply only to white RNs who are married with husband present and live in SMSAs of over 250,000 population in 1970 (except Honolulu). The sample is further restricted so that each included observation (representing an SMSA average) is based upon an underlying pool of at least 15 individual nurses. This last restriction reduces the sample of SMSAs to 88 from 124. The coefficient on the nurse wage variable is positive and statistically significant with an implied wage elasticity of .40 at the means. These estimates are consistent with those observed using the analogous microcensus data on RNs. RN fertility has the predicted negative effect on nurse labor supply but is statistically insignificant, but the magnitude of the fertility coefficient is plausible. A 10% increase in nurse fertility within an SMSA (number of children ever born/1000 nurses ever married within an SMSA) is associated with a reduction in the SMSA nurse labor supply. The estimated coefficients of the husband-earnings and nonlabor-income variables are negative but only the former is statistically significant at the 90% level or above. The estimated effect of the nurse's earnings opportunities on her fertility are statistically insignificant, but the wage coefficient is negative as expected and implies an elasticity of nurse fertility with respect to the nurse wage rate of approximately -.2. The coefficient on the labor supply variable is negative and statistically significant, confirming the hypothesis that increased labor market activity increases the opportunity costs of children. Husband's earnings are not a significant determinant of RN fertility. The estimates suggest that nurse labor supply and fertility decisions are relatively unimportant factors in determining the nurse's market earnings.     

Golden Rules of Wages

We consider a neoclassical growth model where labor collectively chooses labor share to maximize its steady‐state wage rate. In the basic two‐factor model, labor maximizes the steady‐state wage rate by setting labor share equal to the elasticity of output with respect to labor. This is precisely the competitive outcome. Only when we consider the model with organized and unorganized labor types can organized labor raise its steady‐state wage by choosing a higher than competitive labor share. Organized labor can benefit by choosing a higher labor share only at the expense of unorganized workers; not capital. We also analyze a version of the model that incorporates a tradeoff between collective bargaining opportunities and skill acquisition. All else equal, a higher skill premium leads organized labor to choose a higher labor share. Organized labor benefits again at the expense of skilled workers; not capital.     

Hours and Wages in the Depression: British Engineering, 1926–1938

On their intensive margins, firms in the British engineering industry adjusted to the severe falls in demand during the 1930s Depression by cutting hours of work. This provided an important means of reducing labor input and marginal labor costs through movements from overtime to short-time schedules. Nominal basic wage rates dropped relatively modestly while their real wage equivalents continued to rise throughout the trough years of the recession. This paper provides detailed labor market and empirical analysis of the hours and wage adjustment processes. Quantitative work is based on cell data from a panel of 28 local labor markets for the period 1926–38.     

贸易自由化对中国工业就业与工资波动性的影响

本文从贸易自由化与中国就业与工资波动性的关系这一新的视角分析了贸易自由化对我国劳动力市场的影响。研究首先在弹性分析框架之下,对贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响进行了模拟分析。然后采用我国细分工业行业的数据,在估算全要素生产率的基础上,使用回归分析方法进一步考察了贸易自由化对我国工业工资和就业波动性的影响。研究的基本结论是,贸易自由化很可能增强了给定外生劳动需求冲击之下工业劳动者工资和就业的波动性。     

最低工资标准、工资支付能力与中小企业创新产出——基于浙江的调查

最低工资标准的提高可能会增加企业的劳动力成本而挤压其创新资源的投入,也可能通过倒逼企业创新或改善创新预期收益而增加创新产出.文章基于浙江省企业创新障碍调查数据,利用Weibull潜变量模型方法分组对比发现,工资支付能力不同的企业的创新产出存在显著差异;次序logit模型检验发现最低工资标准对工资支付能力较弱的中小企业的创新产出有显著的负面影响,表现为挤出效应;而对工资支付能力较强的中小企业的专利申请数量有正面影响,对创新利润占比没有显著影响.     

Why married women's labor supply in the Netherlands has increased

Summary On the basis of cross-section data sets for 1979 and 1987 we determine: 1) the relative contribution of changes in participation and in hours of work to the increase in married women's labor supply; 2) how much of the change in participation and hours of work is determined by changes in preferences and in budget constraints; and 3) the causes of changes in market wages and reservation wages. The increase in the average unconditional hours of work is much more due to the rise in the participation rate than to the increase in conditional hours of work. Preference changes have contributed positively to the increase in married women's labor force participation over the period 1979–1987, whereas changes in market opportunities have contributed negatively. The change in the market wage and the reservation wage can be attributed mainly to changes in the population structure of married women. Changes in the model structure contributed negatively to the change in the real market and the reservation wage. The positive effect of the change in the population structure dominates the negative effect of the model structure. Finally, participants in the labor market have a comparative wage advantage over non-participants. Non-participants are a self-selecting group with a relatively high reservation wage.We like to thank Joop Hartog, Jules Theeuwes, Isolde Woittiez and two anonymous referees for their comments on a previous draft of this paper.     

外包与工资差距——基于工业行业数据的经验研究

本文首先检验了国际外包对我国熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力工资差距的影响.计量结果表明,与斯托尔帕-萨缪尔逊定理所揭示的相反,外包贸易降低了我国相对丰裕的非熟练劳动力的相对工资.微电子设备的使用也加大了对熟练劳动力的需求,进一步加大熟练劳动力与非熟练劳动力的工资差距.为了检查是否是因为贸易形态的变化所导致的结果,我们进一步检...     

On the heterogeneous short‐term effects of minimum wages on labor demand

A strand of the literature documents no effects or even positive effects of a higher minimum wage on employment. This evidence is frequently linked to the existence of monopsonistic labor markets or search frictions. However, empirical studies show that these findings could be related to a low short‐term minimum wage–employment elasticity in a competitive labor market. We show that mixed theoretical employment effects of a minimum wage policy can be predicted in the short term in assignment economies with price‐taker agents and no search frictions.     

Evidence on the Volunteer Labor Supply of Married Women

I estimate a significant, positive wage elasticity of married women's volunteer labor supply from 1975 to 1976 U.S. time diary data. Increases in the number of children in the household significantly raise participation rates but reduce volunteer hours. I find weak support for a sequential time allocation model of volunteering where the wage as the opportunity cost of time has only a second-order effect on volunteer hours. Increased hours of market work for married women decrease their volunteering. Cash and time donations are complements at the volunteer participation level but substitutes in terms of married women's volunteer hours.     

The Wage and Employment Dynamics of Minimum Wage Workers

This study uses panel data to examine the wage and employment dynamics of minimum wage workers. Compared with workers earning above the minimum, minimum wage workers are much more likely to be new entrants or to exit the labor market. Changes in industry, occupation, and access to job training are particularly important to improving the wages of minimum wage workers. Many minimum wage workers earn less than their potential wage temporarily because of nonwork circumstances that make higher-paying jobs less attractive.     

Working hours in the European periphery: The length of the working day in Spain, 1885-1920

This paper studies the decline of the working day in Spain from 1885 to 1920. The decline was more continuous than previously thought. Differences in hours reinforce wage differentials, showing labor markets were not well integrated. Cross-sectional and time-series analysis suggests that hour reductions reflect a labor supply rather than a labor demand effect. Given the comparatively slow growth of real wages in Spain from 1870 to 1920, the Spanish case shows that international convergence in hours of work must have been stronger than convergence in wages.     

美国最低工资制度的发展及启示

美国最低工资有联邦与州之分。由于适用普遍性与合理工资水平之间的内在紧张难以消除,最低工资呈向下发展趋势。为了补足最低工资的低水平,20世纪90年代,一些地方政府启动了生活工资立法,形成新的最低工资形式。我国最低工资实施的背景与美国有相似之处,可考虑借鉴其经验,构建多元最低工资结构,这种多元结构应建立在劳动者"参与中心型"的立法机制之上。     

我国最低工资模式完善研究——以香港地区的争论为借鉴

最低工资制度是我国的重要制度,但在实践中因为实施效果不佳而饱受争议,运行模式的具体选择是影响其实践效果的重要因素。近年来,我国香港地区对是否实行最低工资以及如何选择最低工资模式进行了激烈的争论。这种争论对我国大陆地区最低工资运行模式的选择有着重要的借鉴意义。我们应在坚持实行地方标准的同时,考虑特殊行业或工种的需要,制定行业标准或工种标准对其加以补充。     

The minimum wage and the financialization of firms: Evidence from China

This paper utilizes China's A-listed firm data to investigate whether increasing the minimum wage promotes the financialization of firms. We apply instrumental variable estimation and various robustness tests to address measurement errors and potential endogeneity. We find robust and consistent evidence that exposure to higher minimum wages increases a firm's investment in financial assets. Furthermore, we explore the effects of moderators, such as increased employment stickiness, intensification of financial constraints, and reduced innovation activities as potential explanations for the positive effect of increasing minimum wages. Moreover, firms located in non-coastal cities with relatively higher equity concentration and lower market competition are substantially more incentivized to increase investment in financial assets. Overall, this paper provides new insights into understanding the effects of increasing labor costs on firms' asset allocation in emerging market economies.     

Re-examination of wage, employment, and hours adjustments: what is crucial for differences in the adjustments?

Manufacturing wage, employment, and hours adjustments are significantly different among developed countries, typically between Japan and the US. The problem of explaining the differences is closely related to that of what effect the extent of wage flexibility has on labor market adjustments. However, prevailing theories are invalid or incomplete for explaining the differences. The differences in the adjustments cannot be unrelated with institutional features of the labor market. Indeed, the extent of wage flexibility depends on the differences in the institutional features. Using a new model with such an idea, this paper theoretically re-examines the cause of the differences in the adjustments. The crucial causes are the characteristics of wage flexibility as well as the differences of the institutional features. The characteristics are that wage adjustment is discontinuous, infrequent, and has a lower limit in comparison with changes in demand.