Exchange Rate Pass-through in a Small Open Economy: the Importance of the Distribution Sector

The degree of exchange rate pass-through to domestic goods prices has important implications for monetary policy in small open economies with floating exchange rates. Evidence indicates that pass-through is faster to import prices than to consumer prices. Price setting behaviour in the distribution sector is suggested as one important explanation. If distribution costs and trade margins are important price components of imported consumer goods, adjustment of import prices and consumer prices to exchange rate movements may differ. We present evidence on these issues for Norway by estimating a cointegrated VAR model for the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector, paying particular attention to exchange rate channels likely to operate through trade margins. Embedding this model into a large scale macroeconometric model of the Norwegian economy, which inter alia includes the pricing-to-market hypothesis and price-wage and wage-wage spirals between industries, we find exchange rate pass-through to be quite rapid to import prices and fairly slow to consumer prices. We show the importance of the pricing behaviour in the distribution sector in that trade margins act as cushions to exchange rate fluctuations, thereby delaying pass-through significantly to consumer prices. A forecasting exercise demonstrates that exchange rate pass-through to trade margins has not changed in the wake of the financial crises and the switch to inflation targeting. We also find significant inflationary effects of exchange rate changes even in the short run, an insight important for inflation targeting central banks.     

Exchange Rate Pass-through,Unemployment and Optimal Implementable Monetary Policy Rule for Emerging Economies

Abstract

This paper develops a small open economy model with nominal rigidities and search-matching frictions to study the implications of exchange rate pass-through for monetary policy in emerging countries. I find that, with complete exchange rate pass-through, the optimal policy rule features unemployment targeting as well as inflation targeting. However, the welfare gain from responding to unemployment fluctuations diminishes as the rate of exchange rate pass-through to import prices decreases. With low exchange rate pass-through, the optimal monetary policy is strict inflation targeting.     

The Exchange Rate and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Germany

For the conduct of monetary policy under floating exchange rates it is important to understand the role of the exchange rate in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM). The timing and the magnitude of the effects of a change in the exchange rate on output and inflation may be quite different from traditional interest rate channels, thereby affecting optimal policy. In this paper we examine the exchange rate channel in the MTM in Germany by estimating an identified VAR model. Two features of the results are highlighted. The effect of a policy shock on the exchange rate accelerates the pass-through of policy into prices and leads to a different response of the various components of GDP. We then show that these qualitative effects can be duplicated in a general equilibrium model for a semi-small open economy with sticky prices and wages that is calibrated to capture the main features of the German economy.     

A regime-switching analysis of pass-through

We empirically investigate how various economic factors affect the changes in the pricing policies of exporters, in particular changes in the exchange rate pass-through. Assuming exporters set prices following either a high or a low pass-through pricing policy, and assuming that the transition probabilities between these pricing policies depend on market concentration, exporting country??s market share and monetary stability, we estimate a Markov regime-switching model, using data we have collected on imported cars to the United States. Our findings show that the ??low pass-through?? regime is characterized by: lower exchange rate pass-through, low response to misalignments in the firm??s relative price, low volatility of exogenous shocks, and higher duration. When we decompose the changes in the pass-through in our sample, we find that monetary stability has been the most important factor behind the decline in the pass-through. Monetary stability explains more than 50% of the decline in the exchange rate pass-through, while country market share and market concentration explain about 25 and 10%, respectively.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR

Analyzing monetary policy in China is not straightforward because the People's Bank of China (PBoC) implements policy by using more than one instrument. In this paper we use a Qual VAR, a conventional VAR system augmented with binary policy announcements, to extract a latent indicator of tightening and easing pressure, respectively, for China. The model acknowledges that policy announcements are endogenous and summarizes policy by a single indicator. The Qual VAR allows us to study the impact of monetary policy in terms of unexpected changes in these latent variables, which we identify using sign restrictions. We show that the transmission of monetary policy impulses to the rest of the economy is similar to the transmission process in advanced economies in terms of both output growth and inflation despite a very different monetary policy framework. We find that bank loans are not sensitive to policy changes, which implies that window guidance is still a necessary policy tool. We also find that the impact of monetary policy shocks is asymmetric in terms of asset prices, that is, the asset price reactions differ in their sensitivity to tightening shocks and easing shocks, respectively. In particular, an easing of monetary conditions boosts stock prices while a tightening shock leaves stock prices unaffected. This shows that monetary policy is not a suitable tool to stabilize asset prices, which raises implications for financial stability and macroprudential policy.     

International monetary transmission in East Asia: Floaters,non-floaters,and capital controls

This paper analyzes the impacts of the United States (US) monetary shocks on East Asian countries using structural vector-autoregression (VAR) model. We find that the impacts of the US monetary shocks on East Asian domestic interest rates and exchange rates contradict conventional wisdom. The conventional exchange rate channel is unlikely to play much role in the transmission of the US monetary policy shocks to floaters in East Asian countries, excluding Japan. In these countries, the domestic interest rates respond strongly to the US interest rate changes, by giving up monetary autonomy, probably because of fear of floating. However, the domestic interest rate does not respond much in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes and capital account restrictions, such as China and Malaysia. This may suggest that the countries with fixed exchange rate regimes enjoy a higher degree of monetary autonomy, most likely with the help of capital account restrictions.     

International spillovers of U.S. monetary uncertainty and equity market volatility to China’s stock markets

Due to the global economy that is currently being increasingly integrated and liberalized, the cross-country transmission of U.S. monetary policy surprises has become a critical issue attracting scholarly attention. This research thus extends the existing literature by assessing the causal linkages among U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (USMPU), equity market volatility, and China’s stock price index over the period from January 1994 to August 2021. We apply Granger causality in quantile analysis to explore the relationships in each quantile of the distribution in a comprehensible manner. The results indicate that equity market volatility and China’s stock price dynamics play little role in affecting USMPU. We also find that only greater changes in both positive monetary policy uncertainty and stock prices lead to changes in equity market volatility. Furthermore, fluctuations in monetary policy uncertainty and equity market volatility in the United States Granger-cause China’s stock prices. Knowing such causality results could prevent market participants from adopting a one-size-fits-all strategy.     

Japan＇s Bubble,the USA＇s Bubble and China＇s Bubble

This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in asset prices: Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the USA since the mid‐1990s; and China during the past decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, their increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and a careful comparative study is warranted. The present paper first examines the behavior of asset prices, of property prices in particular, in the three cases, and highlights some similarities. The paper emphasizes the role played by extremely easy monetary policy in generating bubble‐like asset price behavior in the three cases. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the US case, the monetary authority was concerned about the risk of deflation in the early to mid‐2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the monetary authorities of both countries were seriously concerned about the possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. The implications of such a finding for the future of Chinese macroeconomic policy are discussed.     

Vertical Trade,Exchange Rate Pass-Through,and the Exchange Rate Regime

We compare the welfare of different combinations of monetary and currency policies in an open-economy macroeconomic model that incorporates two important features of many small open economies: a high level of vertical international trade and a high degree of exchange rate pass-through. In this environment, a small economy prefers a fixed exchange rate regime over a flexible regime, while the larger economy prefers a flexible exchange rate regime. There are two main causes underlying our results. First, in the presence of sticky prices, relative prices adjust through changes in the exchange rate. Multiple stages of production and trade make it more difficult for one exchange rate to balance the whole economy by adjusting several relative prices simultaneously throughout the vertical chain of production and trade. More specifically, there is a tradeoff between delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign final goods and delivering an efficient relative price between home and foreign intermediate goods. Second, because the small economy faces a high degree of exchange rate pass-through under a flexible regime, it suffers from a lack of efficient relative prices in vertical trade. The larger economy, however, does not face this problem because its level of exchange rate pass-through is low.     

A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan

A substantial number of papers have proposed to allow for more exchange rate flexibility of the Chinese yuan. But few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for Japanese monetary policy after the shift of Japan from a fixed to a floating exchange rate regime. In contrast to prior studies, we allow for regime shifts in the impact of the exchange rate on monetary policy. The results show that the exchange rate had a substantial impact on Japanese monetary policy in periods of appreciation. This implies that repeated attempts to soften the appreciation pressure by interest rate cuts have led Japan into the liquidity trap. The economic policy conclusion for China is to keep the exchange rate pegged (to the dollar).     

Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in a Resource Rich Setting: The Case of Zambia

This paper investigates the relationship between copper prices, the exchange rate and consumer price inflation in Zambia using a structural vector autoregression with quarterly data for 1995–2014 and a combination of sign and zero restrictions to identify relevant global and domestic shocks. The paper makes two contributions. First, it provides new measures of exchange rate pass through (ERPT), based on less restrictive assumptions than previous estimates, to show how changes in the value of the kwacha are reflected in changes in consumer prices (distinguishing food and non‐food inflation). Second, the ERPT is disaggregated to demonstrate that measured ERPT depends on the nature of the shock, with implications for policy responses. Although the price of copper is the most important driver of the exchange rate, the fluctuations it caused are associated with a low pass‐through of about 7% (consistent with a period of relatively low inflation). Exchange rate fluctuations caused by monetary shocks, in contrast, come with a pass‐through of up to 25% (and even more for food prices). A fast response by monetary authorities can mitigate the adverse effects of exchange rate shocks.     

Transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies in open economies

This paper provides an empirical examination on the transmission mechanisms of conventional and unconventional monetary policies for two non-EMU countries, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, over the period 1990–2017. We investigate the role of stock prices and consumer expectations in the transmission of monetary policy. We propose two distinct structural VAR models. The model for the case of conventional monetary policy covers the pre-2009 period, while the model for the case of unconventional monetary policy covers the post-2009 period. The official bank policy rate and central bank’s reserve assets are used as instruments for conventional and unconventional monetary policy. The analysis reveals that the inclusion of a forward-looking informational variable of near-term development in economic activity and a financial variable such as the stock prices is of key importance for the monetary policy assessment. We provide evidence for the existence of a consumer confidence channel in the transmission of conventional monetary policy. Moreover, the long-term government bond yields, the exchange rate and stock prices have an important role in the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Our findings indicate that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have short-run expansionary effects in both countries by increasing output, consumption, investment, stock prices and wages, while reducing unemployment.

     

Stock Prices, Output and the Monetary Regime

Should monetary policy react to stock prices? The answer depends on whether stock prices are good predictors of future economic activity. Using long annual time-series data for the G-7 countries, data going back over 150 years for some countries, we find that stock prices do not systematically predict output growth regardless of the monetary regime in effect. We also find no evidence of a nonlinear relationship between stock prices and output except during the gold standard, when stock price booms and busts had some predictive power for output growth volatility.     

Energy price shocks,monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations

This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy factors to study various channels through which China's economic fluctuations are linked to energy price shocks and to search for the optimal monetary policy to cope with energy price shocks. We conclude that there are channels through which changes in energy prices will have the following cause–effect relationships. First, a rise in energy price as a negative technology shock will raise the costs of providing capital services per unit of capital, thereby reducing output. Second, a rising energy price distorts the intertemporal choices of households and firms, creating downward pressure on the expected future return on capital. Third, an energy price shock places upward pressure on the marginal costs associated with an increase in inflation. Numerical simulation results show that a positive energy price shock has a positive effect on energy technology improvements. In addition, the effects of energy price shocks can be mitigated by nominal rigidities, and interest rate rules will determine the magnitude of those effects. Using the efficient frontier method, we also show that optimal monetary policy in China should help control energy price volatility.     

International monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific before and after

This paper assesses the characteristics and policy implications of the international monetary arrangements in the Asia-Pacific pre- and post-July 1997. It first examines the literature on speculative attacks on fixed and managed exchange rate regimes. Since these speculative attacks are more likely to be successful when financial markets are well integrated, it then assesses the degree of financial market integration in the region. Furthermore, as the empirical evidence also suggests a possible role for real exchange rate overvaluation, we examine the evidence regarding misalignment. Using a purchasing power parity (PPP) criterion and a criterion based on a Balassa-Samuelson model, we find mixed evidence of exchange rate overvaluation. Given that our ability to determine the equilibrium real exchange rate is so limited, we caution against a return to a fixed or highly managed exchange rate regime. Finally, we assess how monetary policy and exchange rate policy have interacted over the pre- and post-crisis periods, using a monetary model of exchange rates. JEL classification: F31; F33; F34     

The Impact of Monetary and Commodity Fundamentals,Macro News and Central Bank Communication on the Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Africa

This paper studies drivers of high-frequency (daily) dynamics of the South African rand vis-à-vis the dollar from January 2001 to July 2007. We find strong nonlinear effects of commodity prices, perceived country and emerging market risk premium and changes in the dollar-euro exchange rate on changes in daily returns of the rand-dollar exchange rate. We also identify a one-sided nonlinear mean reversion to the long-term monetary equilibrium. In addition we establish very short-lived effects on the exchange rate of selected macroeconomic surprises and central bank communication aimed at talking up the rand.     

Estimating the costs and benefits of EMU: The impact of external shocks on labour markets

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of EMU: The Impact of External Shocks on Labour Markets. — Discussions of costs and benefits of EMU usually rely on the optimum currency area approach: when external shocks hit the economy, it is easier to adjust the exchange rate than domestic prices or wages. We find that external shocks have little impact on unemployment, but are more important to manufacturing employment. Taking into account potential shock absorbers (exchange rates, fiscal and monetary policy) leaves results unchanged. By contrast, internal shocks, strongly influence (un)employment. The loss of the exchange rate instrument will not lead to massive unemployment after external shocks.     

The International Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Dollar Pricing Model

This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary policy in the case where all export prices are set in US dollars. “Dollar pricing” implies that the international effects of US monetary shocks are different from those of European shocks because of an asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to import prices. A dollar pricing model can explain the observed asymmetry in the transmission of monetary policy: US monetary policy affects US output more than European monetary policy affects European output. I also show that the current account is an important channel through which monetary policy affects welfare. The paper concludes that under dollar pricing a monetary expansion is a beggar-thy-neighbour policy.     

Policy Choices and Resilience to International Monetary Shocks

Abstract

The well-known trilemma theory states that the nominal exchange rate regime plays a crucial role in a country's ability to pursue monetary policy that is for its domestic objectives independent from other countries' influences. In particular, a flexible exchange rate is required for an independent monetary policy. Capital controls may help a country with a fixed exchange rate to gain some policy space but the effect of capital controls is leaky and often short-lived. We revisit these conventional wisdoms and find no strong evidence supporting them in practice. In particular, a flexible exchange rate does not reliably deliver monetary policy independence, but capital controls do. This is consistent with the view that most (developing) countries dislike either depreciation or appreciation of their currencies, and therefore would choose to follow US monetary policy moves even if they are on a flexible exchange rate regime. In other words, to build resilience to international monetary policy shocks, capital controls are a necessarily component.     

Direct Inflation Targeting and Nominal Convergence: The Czech Case

This study analyses the impact of direct inflation targeting (DIT) on monetary policy credibility in the Czech Republic, as evidenced by asset prices. It examines the effect of changes in the two-week repo rate (the official interest rate) on short and long–term market interest rates. It assumes the asymmetry of information and the existence of a stationary stochastic equilibrium with full knowledge of authorities reaction function. We find that at short maturities, the coefficients for changes in the official repo rate are lower in the DIT period than in the pre-crisis period. This implies that the hypothesis of no increase in the transparency of monetary policy with the introduction of DIT can be rejected. We find that bond yields and interest rate swap rates with maturities of 5 years and longer did not react significantly to official interest rate decisions in the DIT period. This is consistent with the hypothesis that monetary policy was credible both before and after introduction of DIT.