福建省经济发展和进出口贸易的研究

回顾了国内外学者对经济增长与对外贸易的关系所进行的研究,利用福建省1981-2007年国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额的数据进行协整分析和Granger因果检验。实证分析的结果表明：①福建省国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额之间存在长期稳定的关系。②福建省的经济增长、出口增长、进口增长之间不存在Granger因果关系。     

外商直接投资与中国进出口贸易的区域差异研究——基于省级面板数据的单位根、协整与Granger因果检验

本文基于1987～2004年的省级面板数据,通过面板单位根、协整和Granger因果检验,对国内东、中、西三大地区的外商直接投资与进出口之间的关系进行了系统考察。研究发现:东、中部地区的FDI与进出口之间存在长期均衡的关系,但在西部地区却并不存在协整关系;三大地区的进口均是FDI的Granger原因,但出口并不是FDI的Granger原因;东部地区的FDI很显著地构成了进出口的Granger原因,但这种Granger因果关系在中、西部地区却并不存在。文章结合区域差异结论,从技术溢出的角度重新解释了中国区域经济发展的"马太效应"。     

EXPORT‐LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

This paper examines the export‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long‐run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export‐led growth hypothesis.     

台湾对大陆投资效应的实证分析

尽管从贸易理论,上来说学者们对投资和贸易之间存在着互补关系还是替代关系存在着争论,但是实证分析发现,1991-2009年间,台湾对大陆的直接投资带动了贸易的增长,存在着互补效应。而且格兰杰因果检验表明,台湾自大陆进口与向大陆出口之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。     

EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NAMIBIA: A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time‐series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi‐directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export‐led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth.     

Determinants of Real Chinese GDP 1978–2014

In 2014, the IMF reported that China became the largest economy in the world according to Purchasing Power Parity rates. This study aims to explain the Chinese economic miracle. It focuses on frequently suggested factors influencing China’s real gross domestic product (GDP), such as export promotion, exchange rate policy, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The paper employs the Bounds test of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to test for cointegration. Once cointegration is established, Granger Causality is investigated using the vector autoregressive model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) method. Two different combinations of the real macroeconomic variables exports, exchange rate, imports, and FDI were employed to examine Granger causal relationships. All explanatory variables, except for the exchange rate, were found to have plausible relationships with GDP. The exchange rate and GDP relationship was unexpected; a Renminbi appreciation was associated with an increase in GDP. To investigate this paradox, a third ARDL model was estimated with exports as the dependent variable and the exchange rate, world GDP, and FDI as the independent variables. In this model, we found evidence of cointegration and a plausible relationship between real exports and the real exchange rate. Exchange rate devaluation increased exports and thus indirectly increased GDP. Such findings help to resolve the unexpected results. Nonetheless, according to the Granger causality tests the established statistical evidence is rather weak. We found that both the exchange rate and FDI are no longer strong drivers of economic growth in China.     

Exports,imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Estimating the export and import demand for manufactured goods: The role of FDI

In this paper we estimate the demand for exports and imports of manufactured goods for a panel containing the majority of the EU countries as well as the United States and Japan. The model includes as explanatory factors both the traditional determinants of trade and also the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI). We apply panel unit root and cointegration tests allowing for heterogeneity. Whereas there is no evidence of cointegration when using just the traditional formulation, the results are favorable to the existence of long-run relationships linking the variables of the augmented model. Moreover, the results point mainly to a complementary relationship between trade and FDI.     

Export-output causality: The Irish case 1953–93

Despite proposed theoretical relationships, recent empirical research has found no conclusive support for a causal relationship between exports and output. Using the methodological approach based on the statistical theory of cointegration and Granger causality tests, the causal relationship between exports and output is examined here using Irish data. The Johansen technique is used and error-correction modeling is incorporated into the Granger causality tests. Results suggest that exports and GDP are cointegrated. Augmented Granger causality tests indicate support for the export-led growth hypothesis since there is evidence of short-run and long-run causality from exports to output.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Forty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference in Paris, France, March 13–18, 1996. The author would like to thank Liam Gallagher and Van Newby for helpful comments.     

日本对华农业直接投资与中日农产品贸易的关系研究

日本是中国重要的农产品出口市场和农业外资来源国之一,研究中日之间农产品贸易与直接投资的内在联系,有助于深化对双边农业经贸关系的认识。本文利用格兰杰因果关系检验法对中日农产品贸易与直接投资的关系进行了研究。结果表明,对日农产品出口、从日农产品进口和贸易总量与日本对华农业直接投资之间均存在长期稳定的互补关系;FDI和对日农产品出口之间不存在长期和短期的格兰杰因果关系,但FDI对农产品进口具有单向的长期因果关系。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Trade: A Causality Analysis

In this article, we analyze the relationship between outward foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports, using Spanish quarterly data for the period 1977–1998, by means of Granger causality tests in a cointegration framework. Our results point to the existence of a relationship of complementarity between both variables, with Granger causality running in the short run from outward FDI to exports, and bilateral Granger causality in the long run.     

FDI, exports, and GDP in East and Southeast Asia—Panel data versus time-series causality analyses

Using time-series and panel data from 1986 to 2004, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among China, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand, the eight rapidly developing East and Southeast Asian economies. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, we estimate the VAR of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations for each of the eight economies. We found each country has different causality relations and does not yield general rules. We then construct the panel data of the three variables for the eight economies as a group and then use the fixed effects and random effects approaches to estimate the panel data VAR equations for Granger causality tests. The panel data causality results reveal that FDI has unidirectional effects on GDP directly and also indirectly through exports, and there also exists bidirectional causality between exports and GDP for the group. Our results indicate that the panel data causality analysis has superior results over the time-series causality analysis. Economic and policy implications of our analyses are then explored in the conclusions.     

关于日本对华直接投资贸易效应的实证分析

有关外商直接投资的贸易效应已经成为理论界讨论的热点问题,大量文献讨论了投资对贸易流量的影响.本文在前人研究的基础上,采用协整检验及误差修正模型检验,分析日本对华直接投资对于中日双边贸易所产生的效应.结果表明,日本对华直接投资与中国对日进、出口均表现为一种显著的协整关系;无论从长期还是短期看,日本对华直接投资与中国对日本的出口具有显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,但与中国对日本进口仅有单向的因果关系.     

服务贸易对浙江经济增长影响的实证分析

本文实证检验了服务贸易对浙江GDP增长的影响,发现浙江服务贸易出口会促进经济增长,进口则会制约经济增长。而且出口、进口均是GDP增长的格兰杰原因。在尝试性地对这些结果进行相应解释的基础上,提出了发展服务贸易、促进浙江经济增长的建议。     

What are China's real gains within global value chains? Measuring domestic value added in China's exports of manufactures

This paper aims to investigate China's gains of participating in global value chains (GVCs) in terms of GDP in exports (DVA - domestic value added) and the factors affecting China's gains. The paper decomposes the gross exports of China so as to get the components that make up total GDP in the exports of the country, namely the value-added exports and DVA that are returned from abroad. Then the two components are measured to obtain the scale of GDP in China's exports both on country and sector level. The results show that, firstly, both value-added exports and the GDP in China's exports are less than the traditional gross trade statistics, indicating that there is a gap of real trade gains under GVCs. Secondly, comparing whether the proportion of DVA in total exports, the proportion of DVA in exports of manufactures or the proportion of RDV in total DVA, the gaps between China and the developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan do exist. Especially, considering the RDV of China, the proportion is significantly lower than that of major developed countries such as the United States and Germany, indicating that China lags far behind developed countries in the capabilities of supplying high value-added intermediate goods. Lastly, the empirical results suggest that DVA in China's exports has progressively increased in response to the productivity enhancement; research and development (R&D) inputs and capital formation, and the synergies between R&D and vertical specialization affect China's DVA growth in exports positively.     

财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978～2007年改革开放30年数据的实证分析

本文以我国1978～2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:长期内,财政分权会推进外贸依存度的提高,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的对FDI和出口的激励,以及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

从我国现有的相关资料和数据入手,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,运用我国1978年至2010年间GDP、进口额、出口额的统计数据,对我国对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行了分析和研究,得出了相关结论。     

福建省对外贸易与经济增长的互动关系研究

随着经济全球化进程的加快,国际贸易把各个区域联结得更为紧密。一个地区对外贸易水平的高低体现了其经济发展水平的高低以及融入全球化的能力。本文根据1984-2007年福建省的出口、进口和地区生产总值的数据,运用协整检验、基于VAR模型的Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数等计量方法,研究了福建省对外贸易与经济增长的互动关系,并提出相应的政策建议。     

Re‐Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh

This paper revisits the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Bangladesh by incorporating trade openness in production function using quarter frequency data over the period of 1976‐2012. We applied combined Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach to examine cointegration among the series. Our empirical evidence suggests that development of financial sector facilitates economic growth but capitalization impedes it. In addition, trade openness stimulates economic growth. Labour is also positively linked to economic growth. The vector error correction model Granger causality results divulge that financial development causes real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and resultantly, real per capita GDP growth causes financial development in a Granger sense. The results also show that trade and labour Granger cause economic growth. The findings of the paper provide insights for policymakers to use financial development and trade openness as a tool for sustained economic growth in the long run. The paper also suggests policymakers to utilise capitalization in a way that is beneficial for economic growth of Bangladesh.