Measuring and forecasting S&P 500 index‐futures volatility using high‐frequency data

In the 24‐hr foreign exchange market, Andersen and Bollerslev measure and forecast volatility using intraday returns rather than daily returns. Trading in equity markets only occurs during part of the day, and volatility during nontrading hours may differ from the volatility during trading hours. This paper compares various measures and forecasts of volatility in equity markets. In the absence of overnight trading it is shown that the daily volatility is best measured by the sum of intraday squared 5‐min returns, excluding the overnight return. In the absence of overnight trading, the best daily forecast of volatility is produced by modeling overnight volatility differently from intraday volatility. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:497–518, 2002     

Half-day trading and spillovers

This paper investigates the linkage of returns and volatilities between the United States and Chinese stock markets from January 2010 to March 2020. We use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) GARCH models to calculate the time-varying correlations of these two markets and examine the return and volatility spillover effects between these two markets. The empirical results show that there are only unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. stock market to the Chinese stock market. The U.S. stock market has a consistently positive spillover to China’s next day’s morning trading, but its impact on China’s next day’s afternoon trading appears to be insignificant. This finding implies that information in the U.S. stock market impacts the performance of the Chinese stock market differently in distinct semi-day trading. Moreover, with respect to the volatility, there are significant bidirectional spillover effects between these two markets.     

Market Timing With Moving Averages

I present evidence that a moving average (MA) trading strategy has a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance compared to buying and holding the underlying asset using monthly returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, and momentum, and seven international markets as well as 18,000 individual US stocks. The MA strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 3–7% per year after transaction costs. The performance of the MA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the default premium, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the MA strategy.     

Derivatives trading,volatility spillover,and regulation: Evidence from the Korean securities markets

Unlike the U.S. and Japanese securities markets, we find new evidence of volatility spillover between index stocks and non‐index stocks following the introductions of index derivatives trading in the Korean securities markets. We further find that the degree of volatility spillover is closely related to the level of market deregulation; significant return volatility spills over from non‐index to index stocks during deregulation period but in the opposite direction during post‐deregulation period. Our empirical results show that the former volatility spillover from non‐index to index stocks can be explained by the transitory contagion effect associated with the 1997 Korean financial crisis and the subsequent market deregulation, whereas the latter volatility spillover from index to non‐index stocks is attributed to the permanent information spillover effect. This latter evidence suggests that the information regarding investors' expectations on the future common market factors is first reflected into the return volatility of index stocks and then transferred to the trading of non‐index stocks against which derivatives are not traded. Our results are robust to different estimation and sample construction methods. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:563–597, 2009     

Intraday Volatility in Interest‐Rate and Foreign‐Exchange Markets: ARCH,Announcement, and Seasonality Effects

We explore the determinants of intraday volatility in interest‐rate and foreign‐exchange markets, focusing on the importance and interaction of three types of information in predicting intraday volatility: (a) knowledge of recent past volatilities (i.e., ARCH or Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effects); (b) prior knowledge of when major scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report or Producer Price Index, will be released; and (c) knowledge of seasonality patterns. We find that all three information sets have significant incremental predictive power, but macroeconomic announcements are the most important determinants of periods of very high intraday volatility (particularly in the interest‐rate markets). We show that because the three information sets are not independent, it is necessary to simultaneously consider all three to accurately measure intraday volatility patterns. For instance, we find that most of the previously documented time‐of‐day and day‐of‐the‐week volatility patterns in these markets are due to the tendency for macroeconomic announcements to occur on particular days and at particular times. Indeed, the familiar U‐shape completely disappears in the foreign‐exchange market. We also find that estimates of ARCH effects are considerably altered when we account for announcement effects and return periodicity; specifically, estimates of volatility persistence are sharply reduced. Separately, our results show that high volatility persists longer after shocks due to unscheduled announcements than after equivalent shocks due to scheduled announcements, indicating that market participants digest information much more quickly if they are prepared to receive it. However, contrary to results from equity markets, we find no evidence of a meaningful difference in volatility persistence after positive or negative price shocks. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21: 517–552, 2001     

The relationship between currency carry trades and U.S. stocks

The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger‐causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry‐trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than noncyclical stocks on carry trades.     

Market timing of CTAs: An examination of systematic CTAs vs. discretionary CTAs

This study uses a set of return‐based factors to explore market (return and volatility) timing ability of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). Unlike previous research, we use return‐based factors that are related to the futures markets in which most CTAs trade. This leads to higher explanatory power for our multifactor model. Our approach allows us to test for the presence of market timing in multiple markets. Accordingly, we are able to identify the markets in which CTAs may have market timing ability. We find that systematic CTAs are generally more skilled at market timing than discretionary CTAs, with the latter having slightly better overall risk‐adjusted performance during our study period: January 1994 to December 2004. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:1067–1099, 2009     

Informed options trading on the implied volatility surface: A cross-sectional approach

This study investigates the cross-sectional implication of informed options trading across different strikes and maturities. We explore the term structure perspective of the one-way information transmission from options markets to stock markets by adopting well-known option-implied volatility measures to examine stock return predictability. Using equity options data for U.S. listed stocks spanning 2000–2013, we find that the shape of the long-term implied volatility curve exhibits extra predictive power for stock returns of subsequent months even after orthogonalizing the short-term components. Our findings indicate that the inter-market information asymmetry rapidly disappears before the expiration of long-term option contracts.     

Timing the Market with a Combination of Moving Averages

A combination of simple moving average trading strategies with several window lengths delivers a greater average return and skewness as well as a lower variance and kurtosis compared with buying and holding the underlying asset using daily returns of value‐weighted US decile portfolios sorted by market size, book‐to‐market, momentum, and standard deviation as well as more than 1000 individual US stocks. The combination moving average (CMA) strategy generates risk‐adjusted returns of 2% to 16% per year before transaction costs. The performance of the CMA strategy is driven largely by the volatility of stock returns and resembles the payoffs of an at‐the‐money protective put on the underlying buy‐and‐hold return. Conditional factor models with macroeconomic variables, especially the market dividend yield, short‐term interest rates, and market conditions, can explain some of the abnormal returns. Standard market timing tests reveal ample evidence regarding the timing ability of the CMA strategy.     

Intradaily periodicity and volatility spillovers between international stock index futures markets

This paper examines short‐run information transmission between the U.S. and U.K. markets using the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 index futures. Ultrahighfrequency futures data are employed—which have a number of advantages over the low‐frequency spot data commonly used in previous studies—in establishing that volatility spillovers are in fact bidirectional. The generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model (GARCH) is employed to estimate the mean and volatility spillovers of intraday returns. A Fourier flexible function is utilized to filter the intradaily periodic patterns that induce serial correlation in return volatility. It was found that estimates of volatility persistence and speed of information transmission are seriously affected by intradaily periodicity. The bias in parameter estimation is removed by filtering out the intradaily periodic component of the transaction data. Contrary to previous findings, there is evidence of spillovers in volatility between the U.S. and U.K. markets. Results indicate that the volatility of the U.S. market is affected by the most recent volatility surprise in the U.K. market. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 25:553–585, 2005     

Trading activity in stock index futures markets: The evidence of emerging markets

This study investigates the trading activity of the Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) and Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited (SGX‐DT) Taiwan Stock Index Futures markets by analyzing the intraday patterns of volume and volatility. In addition, the market closure theory, which may explain such patterns, is examined. Overall, the trading pattern appears to be U‐shaped for the TAIFEX futures and U+W‐shaped for the SGX‐DT. For the SGX‐DT futures, volatility follows the same pattern as that of the number of price changes. For the TAIFEX futures, however, after the peak at the close of the spot market, the volatility in the TAIFEX futures drops consistently until the end of the day while volatility in the SGX‐DT still reaches a smaller peak at the close of the futures market. In addition, a visual inspection of the intraday patterns of these two markets shows that the market closure theory can effectively explain the intraday patterns of these two markets. The empirical results support the market closure theory in that liquidity demand from traders rebalancing their portfolios before and after market closures creates larger volume and volatility at both the open and close. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:983–1003, 2002     

After‐hours trading in equity futures markets

Although it is well known that electronic futures data absorb news (slightly) in advance of spot markets the role of the electronic futures movement in out‐of‐hours trading has not previously been explored. The behavior of the 24‐hour trade in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures market reveals the important role of these markets in absorbing news releases occurring outside of normal trading hours. Peaks in volume and volatility in this market occur in conjunction with U.S. 8:30 A.M. EST news releases, before the opening of the open‐outcry markets, and in a less pronounced fashion immediately post‐close the open‐outcry market. Price impact in these markets is statistically higher in the post‐close than in the pre‐open periods. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 29:114–136, 2009     

Intraday volatility in the bond,foreign exchange,and stock index futures markets

Intraday volatility for the Eurodollar, the Euro/dollar foreign exchange rate, and the E‐mini S&P 500 futures contracts traded on a continuous 23‐hour schedule on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Globex electronic platform is studied. Volatility transmission in a single market across different regions is mainly explained by intraregion volatility (heat waves); interregion volatility (meteor showers) plays a secondary role. The joint impact of liquidity variables such as volume and open interest on volatility is also analyzed. Volume tends to increase volatility, but open interest does not affect it. The results are explained by the type of trading venue. Unlike floor‐based trading systems, in electronic markets open interest does not seem to provide additional information on market liquidity and its relation to volatility beyond any information contributed by volume. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:313– 334, 2008     

Stock return dynamics,option volume,and the information content of implied volatility

This article reports new empirical results on the information content of implied volatility, with respect to modeling and forecasting the volatility of individual firm returns. The 50 firms with the highest option volume on the Chicago Board Options Exchange between 1988 and 1995 are examined. First, the results indicate that the ability of implied volatility to subsume all relevant information about conditional variance depends on option trading volume. For the most active options in the sample, implied volatility reliably outperforms GARCH and subsumes all information in return shocks beyond the first lag. For these active options, implied volatility performs substantially better than indicated by the prior results of Lamoureux and Lastrapes ( 1993 ), despite significant methodological improvements in the time‐series volatility models in this study including the use of high‐frequency intraday return shocks. For the lower option‐volume firms in the sample, the performance of implied volatility deteriorates relative to time‐series volatility models. Finally, compared to a time‐series approach, the implied volatility of equity index options provides reliable incremental information about future firm‐level volatility. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:615–646, 2003     

The impact of electronic trading on bid‐ask spreads: Evidence from futures markets in Hong Kong,London, and Sydney

During 1999 and 2000, three major futures exchanges transferred trading in stock index futures from open outcry to electronic markets: the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE); the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE); and the Hong Kong Futures Exchange (HKFE). These changes provide unique natural experiments to compare relative bid‐ask spreads of open outcry vs. electronically traded markets. This paper provides evidence of a decrease in bid‐ask spreads following the introduction of electronic trading, after controlling for changes in price volatility and trading volume. This provides support for the proposition that electronic trading can facilitate higher levels of liquidity and lower transaction costs relative to floor traded markets. However, bid‐ask spreads are more sensitive to price volatility in electronically traded markets, suggesting that the performance of electronic trading systems deteriorates during periods of information arrival. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:675–696, 2004     

Expiration day effects: The case of Hong Kong

Regulators around the world often express concerns about the high volatility of stock markets due to index derivative expirations. Earlier studies of expiration day effects have found large volume effects, abnormal return volatility, and price effects during the last hour of trading on expiration days when the settlement is based on the closing price. This article examines the impact of the expiration of Hang Seng Index (HSI) derivatives on the underlying cash market in Hong Kong for the period from 1990 to 1999. The HSI derivative market is different from most other markets in the sense that the settlement price is computed by taking the average of 5‐minute quotations of the HSI on the last trading day, thus providing an alternative setting for testing expiration day effects. Our empirical findings indicate that expiration days in Hong Kong may be associated with a negative price effect and some return volatility on the underlying stock market, but there is no evidence of abnormal trading volume on the expiration day, or price reversal after expiration. Thus, the existence of expiration day effects cannot be confirmed in the Hong Kong market. [JEL classification: G13; G14; G15]. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:67–86, 2003     

A further investigation of the lead–lag relationship between the spot market and stock index futures: Early evidence from Korea

In this article, we investigate possible lead and lag relationship in returns and volatilities between cash and futures markets in Korea. Utilizing intraday data from the newly established futures market in Korea, we find that the futures market leads the cash market by as long as 30 minutes. This result is consistent with previous studies for the U.S. and other countries’ futures markets. With regard to volatility interaction between spot and futures markets, we find that, unlike the above results for returns, a bidirectional causality is more prevalent between cash and futures markets, and this relationship is entirely sample dependent. We also find that the trading volume has significant explanatory power for volatility changes in both spot and futures markets. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 217–232, 1999     

我国股票市场收益、交易量、波动性动态关系的实证分析

本文对我国股票市场上证指数和深圳成指的收益、交易量、波动性之间的动态关系进行了实证研究,研究结果表明:收益和绝对收益与交易量之间均存在正相关关系;收益与交易量以及绝对收益与交易量之间存在双向Granger因果关系(线性或非线性);深圳成指收益的波动方差对收益具有正向作用,而上证指数收益的波动方差对收益没有直接的影响;上证指数和深圳成指的成交量对股指收益的波动方差不具有解释作用.     

Liquidity supply and volatility: futures market evidence

This article examines the provision of liquidity in futures markets as price volatility changes. We find that customer trading costs do not increase with volatility. However, for three of the four contracts studied, the nature of liquidity supply changes with volatility. Specifically, for relatively inactive contracts, customers as a group trade more with each other and less with market makers, on higher volatility days. By contrast, for the most active contract, trading between customers and market makers increases with volatility. We also find that market makers' income per contract decreases with volatility for one of the least active contracts in our sample, but is not significantly affected by volatility for the other contracts. These results are consistent with the idea that, for high‐cost, inactive contracts, market makers react to temporary increases in volatility by raising their bid‐ask spreads significantly, and customers provide increased liquidity through standing limit orders. An implication of our results is that electronic systems, where market maker participation is not required, are able to supply adequate liquidity during volatile periods. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:1–17, 2001     

Managed futures,positive feedback trading,and futures price volatility

A major issue in recent years is the role that large, managed futures funds and pools play in futures markets. Many market participants argue that managed futures trading increases price volatility due to the size of managed futures trading and reliance on positive feedback trading systems. The purpose of this study is to provide new evidence on the impact of managed futures trading on futures price volatility. A unique data set on managed futures trading is analyzed for the period 1 December 1988 through 31 March 1989. The data set includes the daily trading volume of large commodity pools for 36 different futures markets. Regression results are unequivocal with respect to the impact of commodity pool trading on futures price volatility. For the 72 estimated regressions (two for each market), the coefficient on commodity pool trading volume is significantly different from zero in only four cases. These results constitute strong evidence that, at least for this sample period, commodity pool trading is not associated with increases in futures price volatility. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 759–776, 1999