基于沪深300指数我国股市的羊群效应实证研究

本文采用CCK模型,以沪深300指数及其样本股的日收益率数据为研究对象,对2005.1.1—2010.6.30期间我国股票市场的羊群行为进行检验,得出沪深300指数在这期间存在羊群效应,并进一步对上涨时和下跌时的羊群行为进行了实证分析。     

基于Garch-M模型的我国沪深300指数研究

本文选取沪深300指数2014年1月2日至2014年12月31日的日收盘价作为研究对象,运用GARCH模型对其波动性进行实证分析,并且进一步引入GARCH-M模型研究我国沪深300指数收益率是否存在正风险溢价。研究表明:我国沪深300指数收益率时间序列存在着明显的ARCH效应,具有明显的异方差性和持续性;模型GARCH(1,1)对我国沪深300指数收益率波动性有较好的拟合性;同时研究发现我国沪深300指数存在一定的风险溢价现象,即预期风险越高,收益率越高。     

跑赢沪深300指数的成分股组合构建——基于多因素模型的实证分析

在股票投资实践中,如何构建跑赢沪深300指数成分股组合一直是投资者的期盼,同时也是股指期货期现套利的重要研究课题。本文选取2008年3月1日至2013年3月1日沪深300成分股的行情数据及基本面数据,利用多因素模型对成分股收益率进行预测,并通过WIND咨询提取相应成分股组合在近期的实际收益状况,验证成分股组合是否稳定跑赢沪深300指数。     

我国股市杠杆效应研究

本文基于GARCH模型根据最大似然函数和AIC原则选择最优估计模型,来研究中国股市的杠杆效应。结果显示中国股市存在明显的杠杆效应,其中沪深3 00指数的杠杆效应最小。然后我们以沪深300指数的推出为分界点,以最优估计模型研究前后两段时间的沪深股市的杠杆效应。我们发现沪深300指数推出后,沪深股市的杠杆效应都变弱了。     

沪深300股指期货价格发现功能实证分析

本文使用沪深300指数价格和沪深300股指期货价格129个日数据,采用Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型和脉冲响应的方法,考察了沪深300股指期货和现货市场之间的价格发现引导关系。研究表明沪深300股指期货和现货价格之间存在长期的均衡关系;沪深300现货价格领先于沪深300股指期货价格;沪深300股指期货具有长期价格发现功能,但是这种作用不是太明显。     

基于投资者情绪的沪深300指数期货现货波动性关系研究

本文对投资者情绪、沪深300指数期货和沪深300指数之间的关系用EGARCH模型进行检验,研究发现,沪深300指数期货和沪深300指数的波动性均具有非对称性,利好消息对沪深300指数收益率波动性的影响要小于利空消息的影响,而沪深300指数期货刚好相反,利好消息的影响要大于利空消息的影响;指数期货的波动对指数的波动具有较强的影响作用,长期而言,指数期货有稳定指数的功能;投资者情绪增加了指数期货以及现货的波动性。     

ETF期权与成分股动态溢出效应研究

ETF期权市场与股票现货市场存在波动性联动，了解这种联动有助于投资者做出投资决策和风险控制措施。通过构建DCC-GARCH模型探讨ETF期权与成分股的波动率动态相关性。研究发现：ETF期权与标的ETF的动态相关性记忆性偏弱但较稳定，与各成分股的动态相关性记忆性较强且不同时期差异较大；行业在ETF中的份额对行业成分股与期权的相关性产生了正向作用，上证50ETF期权与金融类成分股的动态相关性更大，沪深300ETF期权与金融和非金融类成分股的动态相关性无明显差异；在熊市状态下，ETF期权与各成分股的波动率联动效应更强。基于此，投资上证50ETF期权需重点关注金融板块权重股；投资沪深300ETF期权可重点关注持仓前列成分股；可利用ETF期权对于ETF、成分股及投资组合的对冲效果，构建相应比例的风险对冲头寸。     

沪深300指数期货价格发现功能实证分析

本文以沪深300指数期货和标的指数日收盘价数据为样本,运用统计分析方法实证检验了沪深300指数期货对标的指数的预期效果和引导关系.结果表明:沪深300指数期货对标的指数具有日间级别的引导作用,在价格发现过程中,沪深300指数期货较沪深300标的指数价格发现作用更强,且居于主导地位.     

股指期货与现货市场的风险溢出研究

本文采用偏t分布的GARCH-时变Copula-CoVaR模型测度了内地和香港两地股票现货和期货四个市场两两间的风险溢出大小,以此来分析两地股指期货和现货市场在极端风险情况下的联动关系.结果表明,所考察的市场中任意两个市场间均存在双向的风险溢出效应,且沪深300股指期货和恒指期货间的风险溢出要明显强于沪深300指数和恒生指数间的溢出.另外,内地金融市场(股票现货和期货市场)对香港地区金融市场(股票现货和期货市场)的风险溢出要弱于反方向的溢出.值得注意的是,在所考察的市场中,恒指期货对沪深300指数的风险溢出程度最高,也就是说,沪深300指数受恒指期货的风险冲击最大,一旦恒指期货发生风险事件,沪深300指数发生风险的概率会大幅上升.长期来看,沪深300股指期货对沪深300指数的溢出明显强于反方向的溢出,但在2015年9月实施对期指的最严限令后,情况发生了反转.本文的研究结论对监管机构、交易所和投资者防范市场风险有重要的现实意义.     

沪深300指数期货与国内外股指期货市场间的信息传递效应

本文运用2010年4月-2011年10月有关股指期货的价格数据,利用VAR模型和基于t分布的双变量GARCH模型,研究了沪深300指数期货与恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货市场间的信息传递效应。研究结果表明:沪深300指数期货与恒生指数期货间存在长期的均衡关系,而与SP500指数期货间不存在长期的均衡关系;恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货可以引导沪深300指数期货,反之则没有Granger引导关系;沪深300指数期货对来自SP500指数期货冲击的响应最为迅速,对来自恒生指数期货冲击的响应幅度最大,而这两个股指期货市场对沪深300指数期货冲击的响应较小;恒生指数期货和SP500指数期货对沪深300指数期货市场均有显著的波动溢出效应,反之则没有。这些研究结果表明,目前我国股指期货市场对国际期货市场的影响较小,运行效率还需要进一步提高。     

Monetary policy,exchange rate fluctuation,and herding behavior in the stock market

Interest rate and exchange rate are two important macroeconomic variables that exert considerable effects on the stock market. In this study, we investigate whether variations in interest and exchange rates induce herding behavior in the Chinese stock market. Empirical results indicate that interest rate increase and Chinese currency (CNY) depreciation will induce herding and this phenomenon is mainly manifested in down markets. Moreover, the herding level of the highest idiosyncratic volatility quintile portfolio is twice that of the lowest quintile portfolio which we consider evidence of intentional herding. This result is consistent with those of previous studies, which report that retail investors prefer and overweigh lottery-type stocks. Finally, we investigate the effects of monetary policy announcements and extreme exchange rate volatility on herding because these events elicit considerable public attention and may trigger collective behavior in the aggregate market.     

Did Investors Herd during the Financial Crisis? Evidence from the US Financial Industry

We examine the herding behavior of investors in the US financial industry, especially commercial banks, S&Ls, investment and insurance firms during global financial crisis of 2008 towards own sub‐sector and market consensus using augmented cross sectional absolute deviation of returns (CSAD) model. After distinguishing between fundamental and non‐fundamental information, we find a greater influence of global financial crisis on spurious herding for commercial and investment banks, and such herding increases in the down market and with conditional volatility of returns, but adverse herding is prevalent among investors during normal period in response to fundamental information. We also find that herding intensity on fundamental information is relatively high with market consensus for all financial institutions except insurance firms in high volatility regime, and intentional herding is only significant and limited to S&Ls and investment banks in high volatility regime. Our findings suggest limited spillover effects of herding when investors face non‐fundamental information.     

证券投资基金的羊群行为

现实的证券市场上,存在着各种不确定因素;基金经理由于关注自己的声誉和报酬,会产生追随他人的行动而忽略自己掌握的信息的羊群行为,这种行为会降低市场效率,增加波动,导致羊群行为发生的各种因素现实中总是存在,要减少该行为,只有增强各种能抑制羊群行为发生的力量。     

软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场中的羊群行为？

文章以“人人贷”网络借贷平台2011年8月15日至2014年8月20日交易数据为样本,通过Python编写网络爬虫程序抓取14936个有效借款订单,采用线性回归模型,按投标记录进行等时间段划分,分析借款人提供的借款陈述等软信息能否缓解P2P网贷市场投资者的羊群行为。实证表明,借款陈述的文本长度与羊群行为存在负相关关系,即借款描述等软信息的增加可适度缓解投资者的羊群行为。对此,建议国内网贷平台应借鉴国外P2P网贷平台的运行经验,提供更多的软信息以引导投资者合理决策。     

Patterns of Herding and their Occurrence in an Online Setting

When groups of consumers share information or express their opinions about products and services, their attitudes or behavior sometime align without centralized coordination, a phenomenon known as herding. Building on pattern-based explanations of herding from the cognitive science literature, we propose a framework to elucidate herding behavior based on three dimensions: the speed of contagion, i.e., the extent to which the behavior spreads in a given time, the number of individuals, i.e., the proportion of the whole population expressing the behavior, and the uniformity of direction, i.e., the extent to which the mass behavior is increasingly uniform with one variant becoming dominant. Based on these dimensions, we differentiate eight patterns of herding behavior from slowly diffusing, small and disparate groups through to rapidly spreading, massive herds expressing a convergent behavior. We explore these herding patterns in an online setting, measuring their prevalence using over four thousand streams of data from the online micro-blogging application, Twitter. We find that all eight patterns occur in the empirical data set although some patterns are rare, particularly those where a convergent behavior rapidly spreads through the population. Importantly, those occurrences that develop into the pattern we call “stampeding,” i.e., the rapid spread of a dominant opinion expressed by many people, generally follow a consistent development path. The proposed framework can help managers to identify such noteworthy herds in real time, and represents a first step in anticipating this form of group behavior.     

The Analysis of 52‐Week High Investing Strategy Based on Herding Behavior

The present study develops zero‐costing strategies that are based on the 52‐week high and herding behavior. Proximity of the current price to the 52‐week high and the level of herding behavior of individual/institutional investors are the two criteria used to screen stocks. Because herding behavior affects stocks that are associated with value‐related beliefs that investors are reluctant to revise, the level‐of‐herding criterion uses the 52‐week high strategy to improve profits. The present study examines strategy profits in Taiwan, a market in which more than 70% of investors are individuals and where the level of herding among individual investors is higher than that for institutional investors. Empirical results found that profits earned using zero‐costing strategies, identified both using the 52‐week high and herding, were larger than those earned using only the 52‐week high strategy. Furthermore, stocks with values that were far from their 52‐week high made significant and positive profits through buy‐herding and by shorting sell‐herding stocks.     

Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange

This study investigates the extent to which herding towards the market consensus for Russian stocks is driven by fundamental and non-fundamental factors. We find evidence that investors on the Moscow Exchange herd without any reference to fundamentals during unanticipated financial crises coupled with high uncertainty, in falling markets, and during days with extreme upward oil price movements. In contrast, in periods of high liquidity and on days of international sanction announcements during the Ukrainian crisis, herding behaviour is merely driven by fundamentals. In Russia, macroeconomic news releases induce both information-related herding and herding without any reference to fundamentals. These results suggest that motives of investors' herding behaviour vary under specific market conditions such as market trends, liquidity, uncertainty, arrival of new information, and oil price volatility.     

房地产市场异常现象的行为金融学研究

房地产市场在发展的过程中出现了一些异常现象,传统金融理论面对这些异常现象无法给出令人信服的解释,现以行为金融学的噪声交易理论、反馈机制、羊群效应,对上海房地产市场出现的异常现象进行解释,并在此基础上寻求相应的对策,以促进房地产市场健康发展。     

The case against active pension funds: Evidence from the Turkish Private Pension System

Using data on private Turkish pension funds we show that most active managers are not able to provide performance beyond what could be achieved by passive indexing. The average fund beats its benchmark by only 26 basis points, before fees. We also observe herding behavior among managers' asset allocation decisions which can potentially explain their lack of overperformance. Our results strongly support the need for low-cost index funds in emerging market countries that are reforming their pension schemes. We further recommend regulatory oversight on the “activeness” of funds and introduction of default plans with more balanced asset allocations.     

行业内上市公司债务权益选择中的羊群行为——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

传统的资本结构理论研究主要集中考察行业间公司资本结构的决策行为,而较少考察行业内公司资本结构的决策模式.文章从公司管理者的心理活动和行为模式出发,实证考察我国行业内上市公司债务权益选择中的羊群行为.实证研究结果发现,在控制了公司基本特征对债务权益比的影响后,10个样本行业中有7个行业在债务权益选择中存在显著的羊群行为,债务权益比的行业均值对行业内上市公司的债务权益比产生显著的正向影响.