The Competitiveness of European Financial Markets

The countries that together make up the euro area are undergoing a process of far-reaching change, with established national financial markets merging into one new European market accompanied by deregulation, cross-border consolidation, and increased competition within the euro area. These developments will help to increase longterm economic growth and will have a strong bearing on the international competitiveness of the European financial sector, leading to innovation and modernisation. This paper presents the underlying rationale of financial integration and increased competitiveness of European financial markets and provides a snapshot of where financial integration has been successful and where work is ongoing. It also notes important historical experiences of U.S. financial integration. It concludes by highlighting the role and recent activities of the European Central Bank and the Eurosystem in promoting and enhancing further financial integration. JEL Classification F15, G15     

Current Account ‘Core–Periphery Dualism’ in the EMU

Current account (CA) dispersion within European Union (EU) Member States has been increasing progressively since the 1990s. Interestingly, the persistent deficits in many peripheral countries have not been accompanied by a significant growth process able to stimulate a log run rebalancing as neoclassical theory predicts. To shed light on the issue, this paper investigates the determinants of Eurozone CA imbalances, focusing on the role played by financial integration. The analysis considers two samples of 22 OECD and 15 EU countries, three time horizons corresponding to various steps in European integration, different control variables and several panel econometric methods. The results suggest that within the EU group of countries financial integration contributed to explain the CA deterioration in the peripheral countries especially in the post‐EMU period creating an asymmetric behaviour within the EMU. From a financial stability perspective, this ‘divergence’ could hinder the effectiveness of monetary policy. By reducing the apparent benefits of participating in the monetary union, it also raises the risk of a break‐up.     

Policy implications

Abstract: In the European Union, the framework of financial services legislation at EU level has been aimed primarily at forming a single market for banks, insurers and other financial services firms. Substantial progress has been made towards this objective. Also, the EU initiatives have stimulated a reappraisal of national regulatory systems. Most of this EU legislation (with the exception of the consumer credit directives) has not had consumer protection as one of its main aims, although it has been assumed that consumers will eventually benefit from a wide choice of financial services providers and from price competition. However, partly in response to consumer pressure, the European Commission is developing a set of initiatives more closely geared to protecting consumers’ interests. Within the context of the EU’s approach, there remain considerable variations in the approach to protecting consumers’ interests in different member states as a result of legal and cultural differences.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

我国开展融资融券业务的必要性及其对策

融资融券交易是世界股票市场广泛流行的交易方式之一,比较成熟的证券市场都允许股票信用交易,如美国、日本、韩国、西欧等国的证券交易法律都有信用交易的规定。融资融券交易之所以广泛流行,是因为这种交易对证券市场及其参与者都具有其积极的作用。尤其在中国更有其必要性。我国证券市场即将开展融资融券业务,在此情况下,研究和探讨开展融资融券业务的必要性及其对策极具现实意义。     

Stock market,credit market,and heterogeneous innovations

The relative importance of credit market development and stock market development in boosting innovation remains a long-standing debate issue. In this study, we document how different types of financial markets development affect heterogeneous innovations. Using a broad sample across 42 developed and emerging economies and a generalized difference-in-differences identification strategy, we find that stock market development leads to significantly higher substantive innovation, especially in young and small firms, but has negative impact on incremental innovation. Conversely, credit market development promotes incremental innovation, especially in mature and large firms, but has negative impact on substantive innovation. Further analyses indicate that stronger shareholder protection enhances the positive impact of stock market on substantive innovation, while stronger creditor rights enhance the promoting effect of credit market on incremental innovation, and even turn the negative impact of credit market on substantive innovation into positive. Our paper provides new insights into the heterogeneous effects of credit market and equity markets on the real economy.     

Modelling spillovers between stock market and FX market: evidence for Nigeria

Abstract

The need to capture the foreign exchange (FX) and stock markets nexus in Nigeria is underscored by the rapidly expanding financial markets integration due to trade and financial liberalization policies which seem to have enhanced the inflow of capital as well as accelerated investment/business interactions. Using variants of the VARMA-AMGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti, and Chan (2009), we find that volatility persistence in the stock market is accentuated by bad news in the market and moderated by good news in the FX market. Finally, we establish that ignoring the asymmetric effects may exaggerate the spillover results.     

谈我国信用征信业加入WTO后应对欧盟数据保护指令的策略

1998年10月开始生效的欧盟资料保护指令禁止个人资料向不具备欧盟适当隐私保护水平的第三国转移,这一做法无疑增加了中欧贸易的障碍,也不利于我国信用征信业的发展,为了避开禁令限制,根据欧盟指令的让步条款,结合WTO争端解决方式及美欧安全港协议,信用报告使用者、信用征信业和政府各有可行的应对策略。     

The arrival of the Euro and its implications for Asia

The third stage of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) commenced on January 1, 1999 with the launch of the European single currency, the euro. The first round of participants comprises 11 of the 15 European Union (EU) nations, dubbed “Euroland.” The potential implications of EMU for Asia are immense. The euro's emergence as an international currency and its impact on Asia can be assessed in 3 different domains: (1) as a medium of exchange for Europe's trade with Asia; (2) as a store of value in stocks and bonds in world capital markets; and (3) as part of official foreign exchange reserves of Asian central banks. Our analysis suggests that there is potential for the euro to play a bigger role in EU-Asia trade links, which will be underpinned by the collective importance of Euroland as a much-enlarged trading and investment partner for Asia. However, in the short term at least, Asian equity markets are unlikely to benefit from significant inflows of capital from the EU as the former have been decimated by the region's financial crisis. As for Asian bond markets, rapid deterioration of sovereign ratings of countries in the region over the past 12 months would make it difficult for Asian companies to raise funds through euro-denominated debt instruments. As for official foreign exchange reserves, the bulk of Asian reserves is currently held in US dollar assets. Judging from Asian trade and debt figures, it seems unlikely that the euro would challenge the US dollar as a reserve currency any time in the near future. Nevertheless, in the longer term, the euro's introduction could make it easier for Asian central banks to diversify their reserves from the greenback to the euro. The internationalization of the euro is likely to happen only gradually, whether in terms of international trade denomination and settlement, denominating international financial assets, or as a reserve currency. Since the magnitude of shock that the single European currency would bring to the international monetary system is still unknown, only very tentative conclusions for the impact on Asian countries can be drawn at this point in time.     

Do the English Legal Origin Countries have More Dispersed Share Ownership and More Developed Financial Systems?

The essence of the legal origin hypothesis is that a country with an English legal origin provides better investor and creditor protection and experiences greater financial development; financial institutions and stock markets flourish, the general public participate more in financing investment projects of companies and so shareholding is less concentrated. The present paper examines this hypothesis on the basis of a cross‐country study of 85 countries. We find no evidence of more dispersed share ownership in the English law countries than in other countries with different legal origins irrespective of whether we adjust for the existence of transitional economies and less developed countries in the sample. Using three indicators of development of banking and other credit institutions and four indicators of stock market developments, we also find no evidence of more developed financial systems in the English law countries. As expected, there is some evidence of lower financial development in the less developed countries and transitional countries. It is not the English law heritage but the security of persons and goods that appears to explain the cross‐country variations in financial development.     

The role of stock markets on environmental degradation: A comparative study of developed and emerging market economies across the globe

It is well established in the literature that stock markets increase both economic activities and energy consumption across countries. Therefore, it is commonly believed that stock markets are expected to have a significant effect on CO₂ emissions. However, it is not known whether these stock markets can contribute to more or less CO₂ emissions. Hence, the goal of this study is to examine the impact of stock market indicators on CO₂ emissions across a global panel of both developed and emerging market economies. The results establish that stock market indicators have a significant negative and positive impact on carbon emissions in developed and emerging market economies, respectively. Furthermore, the findings illustrate the presence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, implying that stronger stock markets lead to a further decline in carbon emissions. Given these findings, the study argues that the role of stock markets in the abatement of CO₂ emissions significantly varies across both developed and emerging market economies. Significant implications have to do with the fact that developed markets might have initiated effective policies on listed firms to minimize carbon emissions, while emerging markets are yet to achieve this.     

Zur Kritik der Kapitalmarktunion

This article examines the European Commission’s proposal to establish a Capital Markets Union through facilitated marketbased financing, prominently cross border securitisation. However, facilitated securitisation might raise systemic risks through a deteriorated term transformation, imperfect risk transfer and excessive leverage. It might create a new liquidity glut completely separated from the needs of the real economy. In addition, this concept is contradictory to previous efforts to properly supervise, regulate and control the European financial markets. The essay favours a regulation and control approach combined with extensive EU reforms of the financial sector.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Finance–Growth–Innovation Nexus in EEA Countries: Evidence from a Multivariate VECM

This paper uses country-level data of European Economic Area countries between 1989 and 2016 to examine the interactions between economic growth, innovation, and financial market activities, with specific reference to the bond and insurance markets. Our intent is to know whether causality runs among these variables both ways, or not at all. Using a vector error correction model, the study finds that financial market activities and economic growth determine innovation activities in these countries. Additionally, the study also finds bidirectional Granger causality between financial market activities and economic growth, as well as between innovation activities and economic growth.     

The global financial crisis,financial linkages and correlations in returns and volatilities in emerging MENA stock markets

The 2007 United States financial crisis has developed into the most severe worldwide economic crisis since the 1927 Great Depression. In addition to its severe repercussion in North America and the European Union, the crisis has put pressure on emerging markets in general, and the Middle East and North Africa region in particular. For a better understanding of how the crisis affected the MENA region, we focus in this paper on the global and regional financial linkages between MENA stock markets and the more developed financial markets, and on the intra-regional financial linkages between MENA countries' financial markets.     

Reform of the EU Sugar Market

After years of negotiations, the European Union finally reformed its sugar market in November 2005. Unilateral trade concessions, ongoing WTO negotiations and internal pressures were pushing the EU for a change. The following short article highlights some of the key features of the reform and the implications for EU member countries, world sugar markets and countries that currently enjoy preferential access to the EU market.      

The Constitutional Structures of the National Political Economy: Barrier to or Precondition for European Integration?

The Court of Justice of the European Union is increasingly dedicated to the pursuit of economic efficiency. As this article will demonstrate, this has led to diagonal conflict between European legal pronouncements on the free movement of labour within a services regime and national jurisprudence on democratically-legitimated public procurement policies within distinct state aids regimes. Where once the CJEU treated public procurement as a distinctive part of the EU’s state aids regime, or one which might be reconciled with redistributive ethical and social concerns maintained at national level, the application of the EU services regime to procurement has placed this traditional understanding in doubt. This re-alignment, however, as well as the supranational-national conflict that it has created, reflects both the deeper mismatch both between European economic and national social competences, as well as friction between national and European conceptions of constitutional legitimacy. Such tensions must be overcome in order to secure continuing legal integration within Europe.     

What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan

As is well documented, subprime mortgage markets carried significant default risk. This paper investigates the relationship between default risk premium, stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables during the financial crisis. Using iTraxx Japan Credit Default Swap (CDS) index spreads covering the period from March 2006 to November 2009, we employ a time-varying dynamic factor model with Markov regime switching to generate regime probabilities for default risk. We analyze the sensitivity of default risk premium changes to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables by using two-state Markov switching models: a crisis regime sparked by rising loan defaults in the sub-prime mortgage market, and a non-crisis regime. We found strong evidence that the relationship between default risk premium changes, stock market and macroeconomic variables is regime-dependent. Our results suggest that during periods of crisis, CDS indices behave as a higher-risk indicator and become more sensitive to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis in explaining the default risk premium. Understanding the determinants of default risk premium is important for financial analysts, economic policy makers and credit risk management.     

Errare humanum est: Financial Literacy in European Consumer Credit Law

Examples of financial mistakes made by consumers lend support to the view that systematic mistakes of consumers exist in the EU credit market and that service providers respond strategically to these by redesigning their products. This paper seeks to determine how existing regulation can be improved to ensure consumer protection. Using insights from behavioural economics, this paper argues that financial literacy??that is, knowledge and understanding of complex financial products and skills to navigate the financial market??as a cornerstone for European financial consumer law is problematic. Current regulation is based primarily on information provision to consumers, which should enable them to make appropriate decisions about the risks and suitability of financial products. Although behavioural economics does not necessarily require legal intervention to take other forms than the introduction of information duties, the type of intervention is dependent on the design and needs of a particular market. The EU consumer credit market, in our view, demands more than the current regulation offers in terms of consumer protection. In particular, behavioural studies reveal that consumers generally do not have a sufficient level of financial literacy in order to enable them to make informed, rational decisions. Moreover, behavioural biases have a distorting influence on consumer decision making. The law as it stands, therefore, seems ill-equipped to offer protection to consumers and to prevent them from rash and bad decision making. Reviewing existing regulation and case law, we propose that in the EU law, the Consumer Credit Directive and the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive require updating in order to offer sufficient protection to vulnerable groups of consumers who, on average, have low levels of financial literacy.     

Kapitalmarktunion — bisher hohe Persistenz der Finanzsysteme

In 2015, the European Commission announced that it would push to create a European wide capital market union to support economic growth and financial stability in Europe. The agenda of the EU Commission is ambitious, because the success of such a plan would transform the European financial systems, most of which are still much more reliant on banks than on financial markets, as opposed to the US, for example. A cluster analysis shows, however, that national financial systems are resistant to change, which can only be implemented in the long run. Nevertheless, the past 20 years have seen financial markets gaining more importance for all economies.     

A European Perspective on Consumer Loans and the Role of Credit Registries: the Need toReconcile Data Protection,Risk Management,Efficiency, Over-indebtedness,and a Better Prudential Supervision of the Financial System

The paper examines the role of credit registries in the context of European consumer credit markets and the current policies of the EU in this area. It attempts to show the institutional challenges relating to some competing rights or interests amongst consumers and financial institutions and the need for a strengthened prudential supervision of the financial system as evidenced by the recent crisis whose effects have spread into the global economy. In particular, it shows that there is a conflict between the right to data protection of consumers, the risk management interests of lenders, and the prudential supervision of the credit system. The ultimate goal, thus, is to present some weaknesses of the current arrangements and to put forward a proposal that is probably controversial but that is intended to stimulate a debate from an alternative policy perspective that is wider than the current one.