“金砖四国”服务贸易的竞争力与贸易相似度分析

文章对中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯四国服务贸易竞争力与贸易相似度进行经验性比较,结果表明:印度在计算机及信息业、通讯业等新兴服务业上具有国际竞争力;中国和俄罗斯在运输、旅游、建筑等传统服务业上具有国际竞争力;巴西服务贸易的国际竞争力较弱,但相对传统服务业,巴西的新兴服务业更具竞争力。此外,中国与巴西、俄罗斯的贸易相似度较高,而与印度的贸易相似度较低。     

Ethical Cultures in Large Business Organizations in Brazil, Russia, India, and China

This study focuses on comparison of perceptions of ethical business cultures in large business organizations from four largest emerging economies, commonly referred to as the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), and from the US. The data were collected from more than 13,000 managers and employees of business organizations in five countries. The study found significant differences among BRIC countries, with respondents from India and Brazil providing more favorable assessments of ethical cultures of their organizations than respondents from China and Russia. Overall, highest mean scores were provided by respondents from India, the US, and Brazil. There were significant similarities in ratings between the US and Brazil.     

金砖四国创意产品贸易国际竞争力的比较研究

本文采用国际市场占有率指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易竞争力指数对金砖四国创意商品和创意服务的国际竞争力进行比较研究。结果表明:中国和印度的创意商品具有优势,创意服务的竞争力较弱,俄罗斯和巴西的创意服务优势明显,创意商品的竞争力很弱,金砖四国处于全球创意产业价值链的不同节点。因此,要重视创意服务在创意产业中的重要地位,发挥文化资源优势,对我国创意资源进行整合,加大创意产业资金投入,落实积极的人才发展战略,加快制定鼓励创意产业发展的科技、财税和金融政策,加强金砖国家间创意产业合作。     

供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。     

国际货币体系的改革与人民币国际化探析

牙买加体系自1976年创立至今,一直为世界货币基金组织使用,其自身存在着诸多问题,例如美元在现行国际货币体系中获取的权利与承担的义务不对等,整个货币体系的决策机制偏向于美欧等发达国家和地区,对发展中国家不利等问题。因此,对现有国际货币体系实行改革势在必行,应加快推进建立多元化的国际货币体系,增加发展中国家在国际货币体系中的话语权,大力推进人民币的国际化发展进程。     

加强金砖国家的经济合作

金砖国家是指巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非五个新兴经济体国家,其经济以快速发展为主要特点。预计金砖国家GDP总量占全球的比重2015年将会上升到23%,2020年将会达到31%,2025年将达到41%,2030年将达到47%,甚至有可能会占到50%以上。金砖国家目前面临的主要问题是收入分配差距比较大、产业层次低、社会保障体系不够完善、受通货膨胀困扰和国际短期资本冲击大。金砖国家应处理好与发达国家和其他发展中国家以及金砖国家内部的合作关系,把握好共同利益,在国际事务中加强政策协调,共同反对贸易保护主义,推动国际金融体系改革,积极应对全球气候变化,实现共同发展。     

俄入世之后

中国在加工程度较复杂商品上的比较优势在强化,俄罗斯在特定动植物产品和矿产品上的比较优势在强化,两国贸易互补性在提高。     

BRICS: How important is the exchange rate pass-through?

This paper analyses the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into domestic consumer prices in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries from mid-1990s onwards by using three different econometric approaches (i.e., the single equation approach, the VAR approach and the time-varying parameter approach). It is also studied the role of macroeconomic determinants in ERPT. Our results suggest that (a) ERPT is higher for the emerging markets with mostly floating exchange rates (Brazil, Russia and South Africa) than for the other BRICS countries; (b) exchange rate explains, on average, around the 40% of the price variance for Brazil, Russia and South Africa; and (c) inflation volatility, exchange rate volatility and openness seem to be the key macroeconomic determinants in BRICS countries.     

Saving and investment rates in the BRICS countries

The first decade of the new millennium witnessed the arrival of five large, fast-growing emerging economies on the global stage. These countries, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, collectively known as the BRICS countries, have achieved robust growth and steadily outpaced the advanced economies in the last quarter of a century or so. In spite of their recent slowdown, on the basis of their demographics, vast natural resources, physical and human capital accumulation and overall progress, they are likely to remain the engines of global economic growth and development for some time in the future. In the light of the rising role of BRICS countries in the world economy, this paper aims to study the relationship between their domestic saving and investment rates in the vein of Feldstein–Horioka but on a country-by-country basis using time-series econometric techniques. The results suggest that the basic Feldstein–Horioka regression is misspecified for each BRICS country. The preferred autoregressive-distributed-lag specifications imply that capital is not perfectly mobile internationally in any of the BRICS countries, but it is more mobile in South Africa and Russia than in India, Brazil and China.     

“金砖国家”引进FDI的环境效应比较研究

本文在分析"金砖国家"引进FDI环境效应传导路径的基础上,利用1994-2007年的相关数据,实证检验了"金砖国家"引进FDI的环境效应。研究结果显示,印度引进FDI的环境效应是正向的,其他四国是负向的,由大到小依次是中国、巴西、俄罗斯和南非。     

The Changing Role of Financial Stress,Oil Price,and Gold Price in Financial Contagion among US and BRIC Markets

The objective of this paper is to explore the determining factors behind financial contagion between US and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) equity markets. To this end, we investigate the effects of global macroeconomic factors on the time‐varying correlations among these markets obtained by asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation method. Utilizing quantile regression analysis, we examine the determinants of financial contagion at different levels of time‐varying correlations. The results of quantile regression analyses reveal that global financial crisis (GFC) (2008) leads to changes in the dependence structure between dynamic conditional correlations among equity markets and global macroeconomic factors, such as global financial stress, oil prices, and gold prices. Following the GFC, monetary, and fiscal policy changes in the BRIC markets and hence changing macroeconomic risks of these markets are conducive to these changes. Our findings also demonstrate the importance of cross‐market rebalancing channel for information transmission across US and BRIC markets.     

中印能源竞争与合作析论

作为两个新兴大国,又都是能源进口大国,中印在国际能源领域展开竞争在所难免.在中东、中亚--里海、俄罗斯及世界其它地区,中印两国展开了激烈的能源竞争.随着双边关系的改善,双方领导人做出了及时的政治判断,中印企业联手参与国际能源合作,正在实现由竞争对手向合作伙伴的转变.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

Bank competition in Russia: An examination at different levels of aggregation

We analyze bank competition in Russia at different levels of aggregation. First, we compute a country-level measure of competition and compare it to that for similar-sized economies. Second, we contrast competition across different groups of banks in Russia. Third, we analyze bank competition across Russian regions. We find that banks in Russia are less competitive than those in Brazil, but more so than those in China and India. Large and state-owned banks exert more market power than others. Finally, competition is stronger in regions where there is less bank concentration, greater presence of banks, and greater financial and/or economic development.     

On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources.     

中国服务贸易国际竞争力实证分析

衡量一国服务外包发展潜力的一个重要标准是服务贸易国际竞争力。选择中国与当前全球服务外包优先承接国加拿大、爱尔兰、俄罗斯、印度、菲律宾五国进行比较,通过计算国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数和显示比较优势指数来分析中国服务贸易国际竞争力,为中国促进服务外包发展提供决策参考有着重大意义。     

Market Entry Strategies in Emerging Markets: An Institutional Study in the BRIC Countries

This article addresses two of the strategically important questions of market entry strategies in emerging markets: how to enter and when to enter. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between market entry strategies and market success. On the basis of the institutional theory, we develop hypotheses that are tested against data collected from 564 foreign firms with operations in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), using an online survey. Our findings suggest that market entry strategies have a significant effect on market success, showing the greatest market success in India and the lowest in China. We also find that entry mode and length of operation exhibit a significant positive effect on market success. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Towards a Strategic Model of Global Franchise Expansion

This paper develops the first global index of international franchise expansion that ranks countries according to their attractiveness to US-based franchise firms. A quantitative model combining insights from academic research and business practice generates a ranking of 143 potential expansion target countries according to their risk/opportunity profiles. The rankings suggest that countries with large markets and strong political and legal systems (large European countries, and Canada, Japan, and Australia) are the most attractive for US-based franchisors, while the small, unstable African countries are the least attractive. China (and the other BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India) though attractive from a market opportunity perspective, is nevertheless not highly ranked due to their significant risks and large cultural and geographic distances. This study reaffirms the importance of a strategic approach to international franchising decisions, underscores the importance of properly assessing the relative importance of key determinants in internationalization decisions, highlights the importance of a comprehensive and systematic assessment of the various risks in international franchising decisions, shows the usefulness of quantitative modeling in international franchising, and advocates the development of effective risk management methods in order to cope with rapid changes in the global marketplace.     

Negotiating a supply contract in China. Case comment: Negotiating a supply contract in China

This case highlights the challenges inherent in strategy implementation in the Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) context, especially the impact of cultural context on the negotiation process. It also illustrates the role that multiple providers within a global supply chain can play in strengthening a negotiator's hand. The accompanying commentary from Robert Nudelman, an executive with extensive business development experience in Asia, offers suggestions for companies contemplating market entry into China, including the importance of having the right people involved in a negotiation. He also emphasizes the importance of prenegotiation planning to the outcome of the negotiation. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

“后危机时代”金砖国家的投资合作——中国OFDI视角

金砖国家合作机制的形成是21世纪影响世界经济格局的一个重大事件。文章通过"后危机时代"的新、旧全球化对比,探讨了中国OFDI在金砖国家务实合作中的可能性和现实选择。在梳理有关FDI流动影响因素的文献之后,重点分析了金砖国家在吸收中国OFDI上的潜力和机遇、问题与挑战。结合中国OFDI的投资特征,文章最后提出了促进中国对外直接投资,实现金砖国家经济关系良性互动的四点结论。