Retailers and Consumers: The Pass‐through of Import Price Changes

In this paper, we estimate pass‐through rates of import price changes to retail prices across retailers and consumers for apparel purchases in Germany for the period of 2000–07. We find that high‐price retailers do not pass through changes in the import price. Pass‐through rates for low‐price retailers are 53 per cent within three months. Consequently, pass‐through rates for low‐income households are 58 per cent, significantly larger than those for high‐income households. We then present one possible explanation for these observations in a theoretical model with endogenous vertical product differentiation due to bundling an ex ante homogeneous import goods with services. Following an import price change, retailers who sell a cheaper unbundled product change prices to a greater extent than retailers who sell a higher‐priced bundle of product and service.     

系统性金融风险的度量及其时变经济效应研究

基于TVP-SV-SVAR模型，分析六个不同金融子市场风险对实体经济的实时冲击效应，结合时变脉冲响应方法构建了动态权重系统性金融风险综合指数，并区分高低风险状态探讨其对实体经济的影响。结果表明，银行部门、股票市场和外部金融市场对系统性金融风险的贡献较大；基于对实体经济冲击视角的动态权重系统性金融风险综合指数与样本期内实际金融经济事件的发展趋势一致；不同状态下系统性金融风险对经济增长的冲击效应不同：短期来看，高风险点系统性金融风险抑制经济增长，低风险点系统性金融风险促进经济增长；长期来看，系统性金融风险在高低状态下对经济增长均有负向冲击效应。研究结论对于防范和化解系统性金融风险的宏观审慎政策制定具有重要的参考意义。     

Markov switching GARCH models of currency turmoil in Southeast Asia

This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov switching GARCH model. We distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance: “ordinary” regime, characterized by low exchange rate changes and low volatility, and “turbulent” regime, characterized by high exchange rate devaluation and high volatility. We also allow the transition probabilities to vary over time as functions of economic and financial indicators. We find that real effective exchange rates, money supply relative to reserves, stock index returns, and bank stock index returns and volatility contain valuable information for identifying turbulent and ordinary periods.     

Firm diversification and equilibrium risk pooling: The Korean financial crisis as a natural experiment

We use the Korean Financial Crisis as a natural laboratory for examining interactions among firm diversification, equilibrium capital structure and tail probability events. When the crisis hit in 1997, several major firms, including a large number of highly leveraged conglomerates (Chaebols), experienced bankruptcies. We show how diversified Chaebols obtain higher equilibrium leverage than non-Chaebols (a “cosigner effect”). In the event of a low probability macro-economic shock, the model predicts a systematic change in relative bankruptcy risks of Chaebol firms. To examine this implication, we introduce an empirical methodology that decomposes equilibrium debt into demand, supply and Chaebol-specific factors, for use in a bankruptcy prediction model. We find that the primary cause of Chaebol firm bankruptcies was not idiosyncratic leverage, but leverage systematically related to greater equilibrium access to debt during normal times.     

Endogenous exchange rate pass-through when nominal prices are set in advance

This paper develops a model of endogenous exchange rate pass-through within an open economy macroeconomic framework, where both pass-through and the exchange rate are simultaneously determined, and interact with one another. Pass-through is endogenous because firms choose the currency in which they set their export prices. There is a unique equilibrium rate of pass-through under the condition that exchange rate volatility rises as the degree of pass-through falls. We show that the relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic structure may be substantially affected by the presence of endogenous pass-through. Our key results show that pass-through is related to the relative stability of monetary policy. Countries with relatively low volatility of money growth will have relatively low rates of exchange rate pass-through, while countries with relatively high volatility of money growth will have relatively high pass-through rates.     

The effects of consumer knowledge on responses to event sponsorships

Research into consumer responses to event sponsorships has grown in recent years. However, the effects of consumer knowledge on sponsorship response have received little consideration. Consumers' event knowledge is examined to determine whether experts and novices differ in information processing of sponsorships and whether a sponsor's brand equity influences perceptions of sponsor–event fit. Six sponsors (three high equity/three low equity) were paired with six events. Results of hypothesis testing indicate that experts generate more total thoughts about a sponsor–event combination. Experts and novices do not differ in sponsor–event congruence for high‐brand‐equity sponsors, but event experts perceive less of a match between sponsor and event for low‐brand‐equity sponsors. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sovereign Ratings and Oil‐Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings

We investigate how high and rising oil prices in the 2003–2008 period affected the sovereign ratings of oil‐exporting countries, after controlling for fundamentals. Based on a large dataset of countries from Standard and Poor's and Moody's, we find strong statistical evidence of a large ratings premium – nearly two notches – for those oil‐exporting countries with a large share of net oil revenue to gross domestic product, relative to countries with similar economic fundamentals. We have some limited forecast information from the rating agencies and the effect increases when we include this information, providing further evidence that this ratings premium is not driven by expected improvements in fundamentals. This finding has implications for asset prices in oil‐exporting countries and highlights the risk that in the event of a sharp unanticipated drop in oil prices, sovereign rating downgrades of oil‐exporting countries could be sharper than the deterioration in their economic fundamentals.     

The effectiveness of image congruence and the moderating effects of sponsor motive and cheering event fit in sponsorship

Using the case study data of the South Korea 2002 and 2006 World Cup sponsorship campaigns, this study examined (1) whether more favourable sponsorship response occurs as image congruence between a sponsor and the World Cup increases, and whether (2)consumer attributions of a sponsor’s motives in sponsoring the World Cup and (3) a sponsor’s perceived fit in aiding World Cup cheering events, namely cheering event fit, moderate image congruence’s effects on sponsorship response. Consistent with prior research, results suggest that high vs low image congruence sponsorships generate more favourable responses to the sponsorship, as measured by attitudes and intentions at three different levels of the hierarchy of effects. Results also show that high cheering event fit leads to more favourable sponsorship response. Furthermore, a negative interaction between image congruence and cheering event fit indicates that, albeit still significant and positive, the effect of image congruence on sponsorship response becomes significantly weaker at higher levels of cheering event fit than at lower levels of cheering event fit. A moderating role of a sponsor’s sponsoring motive has not been supported. Overall, the finding sunder score the significance of image congruence as well as the utility of cheering event fit as a particular type of ‘created fit’ that can be used to reduce the perception of low fit and its associated risks.     

The impact of monetary policy on oil price persistence: An application of the smooth regime-switching model

This paper employs the smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the persistence of oil price changes, and chooses monetary policy variables as transition variables of the model to assess their roles in the persistence effects. The empirical results show that oil price changes displayed asymmetric adjustments within different regimes and were more sensitive to the movement of interest rates than inflation rate. In addition, high inflation rate would give rise to low oil price persistence, and expansionary monetary policy would bring about higher oil price persistence. Moreover, when the short- and long-term interest rates were over their threshold values, the persistence effects of oil price changes were opposite. In the present relatively low US interest rates, adopting either an inflation-targeting policy or/and a debt-financing policy to stimulate economic growth, the timing is appropriate and the effect will be positive and expected because of low persistence of oil price changes.     

Globalisation and Obesity

The WHO has recently announced the global obesity epidemic. An economic model is developed in which globalisation factors generate health externalities and contribute to global obesity growth. The unbalanced panel data set contains the information for 79 countries over the period 1986–2008. Fixed‐effects panel data estimation and quantile regression analysis were used to analyse the data. The fixed‐effects panel model results indicate that the impact of trade openness and the globalisation social index (GSI) on global obesity rates is positive and significant, which is consistent with prior expectations, while surprisingly the foreign direct investments (FDI) has no impact on global obesity. While these results are interesting, they are hiding the effect of globalisation processes across the conditional distribution of the obesity variable. The use of quantile regression uncovered that the impact of the FDI and the GSI on low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates in our sample) is positive and significant, while high quantiles are not affected. Since low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates) are representative of the less‐ and medium‐developed countries, this result implies that social globalisation and FDI adversely impact obesity in less‐to‐medium developed countries. Trade openness generally has no impact on changes in obesity rates across quantiles.     

A Credible Path for Ending Too Big to Fail

The high degree of concentration in the U.S. financial system has been intensified in the wake of the 2007–09 financial crisis. Implicit government support of banks that are deemed “too big to fail” has resulted in excessive risk taking and a focus on short-term rewards rather than long-term performance. This paper proposes a three-step plan to limit the federal safety net to commercial depository institutions and to restructure institutions so that no one institution poses systemic risk in the event of failure and that the largest banks face the same kind of risks of closure and market risk as the smallest.     

National Security Export Control Regimes: Determinants and Effects on International Business

Countries restrict exports for a number of reasons ranging from national security, foreign policy to the preservation of scarce resources. Most of the restrictions are imposed on military and high‐technology products. This article focuses on national security controls exercised on dual‐use goods, that is, commercial products with current or potential military applications. The article develops a typology of paradigms for national export control regimes: high state–low business, low state–high business, high state–high business, and low state–low business. It then introduces a theoretical model of the economic and political determinants and effects of such paradigms. The study presents national case studies and examines the effects of the four paradigms on international business. The article fills important gaps in our understanding of national export control regimes and their implications for managers of international business firms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

How differences in eWOM platforms impact consumers’ perceptions and decision-making

ABSTRACT

This article aims to examine the effects of different features of various eWOM (electronic word-of-mouth) platforms on consumers’ perceived credibility of eWOM regarding the product-related risks. Based on the stimuli–organism–response (S–O–R) theory, this study establishes a model to explore the relationships among eWOM platforms, tie strength, social cues, and perceived eWOM credibility. A mixed design of 2 (eWOM platforms) × 2 (product-related risks) conditions experiment and a survey method is applied to verify the model. The results show that tie strength between eWOM publishers and recipients positively influences the perceived eWOM credibility. The volume of social cues in eWOM platforms positively influences the perceived credibility of a female, while the opposite is true for a male. Both tie strength and volume of social cues in social media are greater than those in e-commerce websites. For products with low risks, eWOM in e-commerce websites is perceived to be more credible. Findings implicate that interactive functions should be added to the product comment area to enhance communications between the reviewers and potential consumers. Findings also encourage the cooperation between e-commerce websites and social media and suggest that managers should develop proper strategies in different situations.     

Future rent-seeking and current public savings

The conventional wisdom is that politicians' rent-seeking motives increase public debt and deficits. This is because myopic politicians face political risk and prefer to extract political rents as early as possible. In this paper we study the determination of government debt and deficits in a dynamic political economy model. We show that this conventional wisdom relies on economic volatility being low relative to political uncertainty. If economic volatility is high relative to political uncertainty, then a rent-seeking government actually over-saves and over-taxes along the equilibrium path relative to a benevolent government. This result emerges because of the option value of rent-seeking: a rent-seeking government over-values future funds because of the possibility of using them for future rents instead of cutting taxes in the event of a future boom (when marginal utility of private consumption is low). This over-saving bias is temporary since, in the long run, the rent-seeking government over-borrows relative to the benevolent government as it eventually squanders the funds it has accumulated. We find that both the under-saving and over-saving bias of the government can be solved by a rule of capping deficits.     

Future rent-seeking and current public savings

The conventional wisdom is that politicians' rent-seeking motives increase public debt and deficits. This is because myopic politicians face political risk and prefer to extract political rents as early as possible. In this paper we study the determination of government debt and deficits in a dynamic political economy model. We show that this conventional wisdom relies on economic volatility being low relative to political uncertainty. If economic volatility is high relative to political uncertainty, then a rent-seeking government actually over-saves and over-taxes along the equilibrium path relative to a benevolent government. This result emerges because of the option value of rent-seeking: a rent-seeking government over-values future funds because of the possibility of using them for future rents instead of cutting taxes in the event of a future boom (when marginal utility of private consumption is low). This over-saving bias is temporary since, in the long run, the rent-seeking government over-borrows relative to the benevolent government as it eventually squanders the funds it has accumulated. We find that both the under-saving and over-saving bias of the government can be solved by a rule of capping deficits.     

农村民间借贷高利率对农村经济社会发展的影响

通过描述中国农村民间借贷现状,简析了我国农村民间借贷高利率形成的原因,通过建立数理经济模型,分析了我国民间借贷高利率在农村经济社会发展过程中所起的作用。本文认为尽管高利率对农村经济的发展存在各种消极的影响,但是如果能够合理规范农村民间借贷利率,则对经济的发展有一定的促进作用,虽然消极影响要大于积极影响。为此,建议制定相应的法律来完善和规范民间金融借贷,正规化将成为我国历史进程中的迫切要求。     

The fear of globalizing capital markets

It is generally accepted that free flow of goods benefits both economies without serious risks. The situation with the free flow of capital is different. Many policy makers and economists are skeptical not only about the benefits of free flow of capital, but also see uncontrolled capital flows as risky and destabilizing. Other economists, however, firmly believe that free capital flows will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and greater economic growth. Nevertheless, the debate has little empirical evidence to rely on. We hope to fill that gap in this paper. We study the benefits and risks associated with capital flows by examining the experience of emerging economies around the time that foreign investment in stock markets was allowed. We investigate the impact of capital flows on stock returns, stock market efficiency, inflation, and exchange rates. We also examine the effect on different kinds of volatility that might arise as a consequence of capital flows: volatility of stock returns, volatility of inflation rates, and volatility of exchange rates. We find no evidence of an increase in inflation or an appreciation of exchange rates. Stock returns reflect a lower cost of capital after liberalization. There is no increase in stock market volatility and the volatility of inflation and exchange rates actually decreases. Stock markets become more efficient as determined by testing the random walk hypothesis.     

Risk factors associated with life jacket wear among adult canoeists and kayakers in the United States, 1999–2017

Abstract

Drowning is the most common cause of death in recreational boating. Life jackets prevent drowning, yet adult wear rates remain relatively low on most types of boats. Canoes and kayaks are among the least used boat types, yet maintain the third and first highest annual boating-related drowning rates in 2012, respectively. This 1999–2017 study collected data from 124 study sites across the US. Life jacket wear was calculated for 13 dichotomized risky and non-risky variables, using Chi-square tests. A count variable based on number of risks was created, and Cochran-Armitage trend tests examined linearity in life jacket use. Three illustrative variables for each boat type were represented in tree diagrams. Kayakers had higher wear rates than canoeists among all variables observed. For both boats, the majority of risky conditions had higher life jacket wear rates than their non-risky alternatives. As the number of risks increased, life jacket wear rate increased. Boaters seemingly conduct a mental assessment of risk to determine whether to wear a life jacket.     

Capital Freedom,Financial Development and Provincial Economic Growth in China

For more than three decades, China has managed to combine rapid economic growth with a strictly regulated financial sector. The discrepancy between economic and financial development has raised the question of whether China might be an exception to the so‐called finance–growth nexus. This study examines the relationship between finance and growth at the provincial level in China using a new set of measures of capital freedom and financial development. The results indicate that capital freedom and financial development are associated with both higher income and growth rates. In particular, we find that the marketisation of financial institutions and strengthening of legal and government institutions have a particularly strong impact on income and growth in low‐income provinces.     

Secular stagnation or financial cycle drag?

This speech compares and contrasts two different interpretations of the current plight of the global economy. It argues that the world has been suffering not so much from a structural deficiency in aggregate demand—secular stagnation—but from the aftermath of financial booms gone wrong—financial cycle drag. This perspective suggests that the very low levels of interest rates that have prevailed are not necessarily equilibrium ones—consistent with the “natural rate”. And although it indicates that the headwinds from the financial bust, while very persistent, are temporary, it also points to a number of material risks ahead: further episodes of financial distress, a “debt trap” and, ultimately, a rupture in the open global economic order. To limit these risks, policies should be rebalanced towards structural measures and address more systematically the financial cycle.