Trade intensity and purchasing power parity

In this paper, we seek to contribute to the PPP literature by presenting evidence of a link between trade intensity and exchange rate dynamics. We first establish a negative effect of trade intensity on exchange rate volatility using panel regressions, with distance as an instrument to correct for endogeneity. We also estimate a nonlinear model of mean reversion to compute half-lives of deviations of bilateral exchange rates from the levels dictated by relative PPP, and find these half-lives to be significantly shorter for high trade intensity currency pairs. This result does not appear to be driven by Central Bank intervention. Finally, we show that conditioning on PPP may help improve the performance of popular currency trading strategies, such as the carry trade, especially for low trade intensity currency pairs.     

The great appreciation, the great depreciation, and the purchasing power parity hypothesis

Although there has been much recent work on purchasing power parity (PPP), neither univariate nor panel methods have produced strong rejections of unit roots in US dollar real exchange rates for industrialized countries during the post-1973 period. We investigate the hypothesis that these non-rejections can be explained by one episode, the large appreciation and depreciation of the dollar in the 1980s, by developing unit root tests which account for this event and maintain long-run PPP. Using panel methods, we can strongly reject the unit root null for those countries that adhere to the typical pattern of the dollar’s rise and fall.     

The currency denomination of exports — A questionnaire study

We report survey results on the currency choice of a random sample of Swedish exporters. We find that for an overwhelming share of exports, the price, invoice and settlement currency is the same. The currency of the customer is the most used, with Swedish kronor and vehicle currencies accounting for approximately equal shares. Currency choice is similar for intra-firm and between-firm trade. We also find that negotiations are important for both the price and for the currency choice. A minority of firms use posted prices for their main exports — the median price adjustment for those firms is once per year.     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.     

The welfare effect of international asset market integration under nominal rigidities

This paper assesses the impact of integrating international asset markets when segmented markets are not the only distortion. Using a two-country general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities and monetary shocks, we show that integration is not universally beneficial. Instead, the welfare impact depends on the degree to which exchange rate fluctuations are passed through to consumer prices. While the integration is welfare neutral in the polar cases of complete or zero pass-through, this is not the case when pass-through is partial. When shocks are equally volatile in both countries, integration can be detrimental or beneficial depending on the degree of pass-through. When shocks are more volatile in one country, it benefits from integration compared with the more stable country.     

中国三地区出口影响因素比较实证分析--对广东、北京、浙江三地的研究

中国的对外贸易在1979年以来发展非常迅速，而广东、北京、浙江三地对全国出口的贡献尤其突出。理论分析与实践表明，出口的增长受国内国际经济增长与汇率等因素的影响。文章通过对广东、北京、浙江三地区出口的实证分析，比较论证了各地区出口影响因素及其影响效应，并就此提出政策建议。     

The public bond offering of Petróleos de Venezuela S.A.

In April 2007, Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) issued debt for USD 7.5 billion, the largest debt offering to date by a Latin American company. The conditions surrounding this issue, which was denominated and tradable in dollars, but payable in bolivars, were quite special, particularly when considering the strict foreign exchange control system put into place by the Venezuelan government in 2003. The fact that the bond issue attempted to fulfill the dual purpose of offering dollars to local companies and investors in the midst of prevailing exchange rate controls, while helping to finance PDVSA as a company, creates a unique dilemma that is ideal for class discussion. This teaching case provides the information necessary for estimating and proposing a price for PDVSA's bond offer.     

人民币均衡汇率实证研究文献综述

人民币均衡汇率研究对于完善我国汇率理论,指导汇率调整和汇率制度改革具有重要意义,特别是在人民币连续升值的背景下尤为必要。近年来,人民币均衡汇率成为国内外专家学者关注的焦点,相关研究文献不断涌现。对国内外人民币均衡汇率已有研究文献进行梳理和评述,以明确该领域研究的最新进展,将对今后进一步研究提供铺垫。     

The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits

This paper characterizes the temporal pattern of trading rule returns and official intervention for Australian, German, Swiss and U.S. data to investigate whether intervention generates technical trading rule profits. The data reject the hypothesis that intervention generates inefficiencies from which technical rules profit. In particular, high frequency data show that abnormally high trading rule returns precede German, Swiss and U.S. intervention. Australian intervention precedes high trading rule returns, but trading/intervention patterns make it implausible that intervention actually generates those returns. Rather, intervention responds to exchange rate trends from which trading rules have recently profited.     

The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms

This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results demonstrate that a multinational firm's response to exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whether the volatility arises from shocks in the firm's native or host country. It is the first study to depart from the representative-firm framework in an analysis of direct investment behavior with money.