Demand forecasting by temporal aggregation: Using optimal or multiple aggregation levels?

Recent advances have demonstrated the benefits of temporal aggregation for demand forecasting, including increased accuracy, improved stock control and reduced modelling uncertainty. With temporal aggregation a series is transformed, strengthening or attenuating different elements and thereby enabling better identification of the time series structure. Two different schools of thought have emerged. The first focuses on identifying a single optimal temporal aggregation level at which a forecasting model maximises its accuracy. In contrast, the second approach fits multiple models at multiple levels, each capable of capturing different features of the data. Both approaches have their merits, but so far they have been investigated in isolation. We compare and contrast them from a theoretical and an empirical perspective, discussing the merits of each, comparing the realised accuracy gains under different experimental setups, as well as the implications for business practice. We provide suggestions when to use each for maximising demand forecasting gains.     

The effects of discussion and question wording on self and proxy reports of behavioral frequencies

Marketing research surveys often rely on one person to report about the consumption and purchase behavior of other household members. We report the results of an experiment examining how the level of discussion among household members and the wording of a recall question affect the accuracy of reports about the frequency of another household member’s behavior. The findings suggest two important implications. First, asking respondents for a count versus an estimate of the behavior affects both the level of reporting for others as well as the accuracy of such reports. Second, screening potential respondents on their level of discussion on a topic with their partner or family member may help reduce reporting error.     

Ecology-Driven Real Options: An Investment Framework for Incorporating Uncertainties in the Context of the Natural Environment

The role of uncertainty within an organization’s environment features prominently in the business ethics and management literature, but how corporate investment decisions should proceed in the face of uncertainties relating to the natural environment is less discussed. From the perspective of ecological economics, the salience of ecology-induced issues challenges management to address new types of uncertainties. These pertain to constraints within the natural environment as well as to institutional action aimed at conserving the natural environment. We derive six areas of ecology-induced uncertainties and propose ecology-driven real options as a conceptual approach for systematically incorporating these uncertainties into strategic management. We combine our results in an integrative investment framework and illustrate its application with the case of carbon constraints.     

Survey Accuracy as a Function of Usage Rate

Using a large-scale AT&T database, we decompose usage levels into frequency and duration, and then investigate how they affect survey response accuracy. Results show that more accurate surveys are obtained from those in the high frequency group (possibly because of the increased use of the more accurate rate-based method of recall and higher degrees of regularity), and from those in the longer duration group (possibly because of increased involvement). We therefore suggest that the survey method is less suited for light users because of higher error, and that alternative methods such as diaries might be more appropriate. We also found similarly consistent results with respect to self-perception of usage rate and the accuracy of survey recall.     

Adapting training to meet the preferred learning styles of different generations

This article considers how training professionals can respond to differences in training preferences between generational groups. It adopts two methods. First, it surveys the existing research and finds generally that preferences for training approaches can differ between groups and specifically that younger employees are perceived to leverage technology more at work. Second, it uses a qualitative grounded theory approach to examine the perspectives of a sample of older and a sample of younger workers in the United States. It finds that both samples perceive a greater comfort level of younger employees in leveraging technology‐enabled training and that the older sample were more comfortable with on‐the‐job and mentorship development efforts than more formal approaches. The implication for practice is that training needs to be more innovative so that, for any particular training intervention, potential trainees have a degree of freedom of choice of learning style. Possible approaches are discussed.     

The Impact of Ethical Leadership, the Internal Audit Function, and Moral Intensity on a Financial Reporting Decision

Two elements of corporate governance??the strength of ethical executive leadership and the internal audit function (IAF hereafter)??provide guidance to accounting managers making decisions involving uncertainty. We examine the joint effect of these two factors, manipulated at two levels (strong, weak), in an experiment in which accounting professionals decide whether to book a questionable journal entry (i.e., a journal entry for which a reasonable business case can be made but there is no supporting documentation). We find that ethical leadership and the IAF interact to determine the likelihood that accountants book the entry. Specifically, accountants are less likely to book a questionable journal entry when there is a weak ethical leader and a strong IAF compared to all other conditions. In addition, we find that accountants question the appropriateness and ethicalness of the request to book an undocumented journal entry more in the weak ethical leader and strong IAF condition than in the other conditions. These results suggest that the IAF has a different impact on financial reporting decisions depending on the ethicalness of executive leadership and that a strong IAF may cause accountants to question the appropriateness and ethicalness of an undocumented journal entry when combined with weak ethical leadership. We also find that the interactive effect of ethical leadership and the IAF on an accountant??s decision is fully mediated by his/her perception of the moral intensity of the issue. Thus, accountants, who perceive greater moral intensity associated with booking the entry, are less willing to do so.     

Which institutions encourage entrepreneurial growth aspirations?

We develop entrepreneurship and institutional theory to explain entrepreneurial growth aspirations across individuals and institutional contexts. Our framework generates hypotheses at the national level about the negative impact of higher levels of corruption, weaker property rights and greater government activity on entrepreneurs' aspirations to increase employment. We further explore whether individual's social networks compensate for weaknesses in national institutions. We use the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor surveys in 42 countries for 2001–2006, applying a multilevel estimation framework to test our ideas. We find that the relationship between growth aspiring entrepreneurs and institutions is complex; they benefit simultaneously from strong government (in the sense of property rights enforcement), and smaller government, but are constrained by corruption. Social networks mediate some but not all institutional deficiencies.     

The “Dominos” that Need to Fall into Place for a Reunification of Korea: Making Sense of a United Korea

With the death of North Korea leader Kim Jong-il, the level of uncertainty will dramatically escalate in an already highly uncertain market. The question becomes, is there a market opportunity for Western organizations, and when should Western organizations attempt to enter North Korea? In addition, there is a large question looming over the potential changes in the country, that being, if and when reunification with South Korea will occur. This article examines the potential of a unified market on the Korean peninsula.     

Bank competition in Russia: An examination at different levels of aggregation

We analyze bank competition in Russia at different levels of aggregation. First, we compute a country-level measure of competition and compare it to that for similar-sized economies. Second, we contrast competition across different groups of banks in Russia. Third, we analyze bank competition across Russian regions. We find that banks in Russia are less competitive than those in Brazil, but more so than those in China and India. Large and state-owned banks exert more market power than others. Finally, competition is stronger in regions where there is less bank concentration, greater presence of banks, and greater financial and/or economic development.     

Does a ‘care orientation’ explain gender differences in ethical decision making? A critical analysis and fresh findings

Over the past two decades there has been a great deal of research conducted into the question of gender differences in ethical decision making in organisations. Much of this has been based on questionnaire surveys, typically asking respondents (often students, sometimes professionals) to judge the moral acceptability of actions as described in short cases or vignettes. Overall the results seem inconclusive, although what differences have been noted tend to show women as 'more ethical' than men. The authors of this paper believe that attention should be paid to the insight, from Carol Gilligan and others, that women are more inclined than men to subscribe to an 'ethic of care', and that once this perspective is adopted a pattern is discernible. In a critical examination of previous research we pay particular attention to the detailed content of cases used in surveys, and the statistical analysis of findings. We advocate greater reflection on the results of quantitative surveys and sensitivity to different possible interpretations of findings. This we do with our own exploratory study, conducted with UK undergraduate students of accounting, the findings from which seem to support the original hypothesis that where a 'care' orientation is invited, women do indeed react differently to business ethics issues than do men.     

Is ‘Good’ governance good for business? A cross-national analysis of firms in African countries

Good governance can reduce uncertainty, transaction, search and production costs, and ultimately affect firm performance. In this paper, we explore the link between good governance and the profitability of individual firms in African countries. We employ the governance indices developed at the World Bank and assemble a sample of companies from 21 countries over four years. Contrary to prior research that found a negative association between institutional development and profitability, our evidence shows that an improvement of good governance in countries currently with low levels of governance ratings has greater positive effects on the firm profitability than a similar improvement in countries with relatively higher ratings of good governance. Good governance reduces the variability of the company's profitability, leading to high-return and low-risk investments. Finally, we find that the role of good governance depends upon the country's income level. When the income level is lower, an improvement in public governance is more likely to impact firm performance than when the income level is relatively higher. Good governance is more important for the stability of the profitability of firms in countries with higher levels of good governance ratings than lower ratings.     

Education bias of trade liberalization and wage inequality in developing countries

The aim of this article is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled–unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.     

Readers of Macunaíma and Martin Fierro are like two ships passing in the night: Bad for business

This is an exploratory study about the knowledge of Brazilian managers about Argentina and vice versa. Expressing a deeper knowledge of the partner's culture corresponds to greater familiarity, which facilitates the construction of the confidence necessary to do business. We analyzed the academic literature on familiarity and trust, and suggest that the interrelationships of these countries' economies could be enhanced by encouraging greater familiarity among business actors in the countries. The empirical data comes from surveys of MBA students from both countries, carried out in 2008, 2014, and 2015. The results suggest a significant lack of knowledge of the other and a relative stability of expressions of distrust over time, in the case of Brazilians. We conclude that it is advisable to encourage a greater intercultural understanding among business executives of both nations because this could accelerate mutually beneficial business and empower the executives' careers in the region. We also suggest that the demand for this type of intercultural skills should arise at corporations because the demand by executives is not sufficiently informed as to garner the necessary change and because the pay‐as‐you‐go income model of business schools responds to clients' needs rather than to what should be done.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and quality composition of exports: Evidence from Swiss product-level data

This paper studies the relationship between exchange rate movements and the average export quality using disaggregated Swiss product-level data between 1996 and 2015. We find evidence at different levels of aggregation that the average export quality increases in response to a currency appreciation through compositional effects: currency appreciations shift market shares towards goods that are more expensive and of higher quality. This exchange rate effect on quality is more pronounced for differentiated goods and in sectors with a greater scope for quality differentiation. From a policy perspective, this reallocation effect points to the importance of facilitating structural changes in the export composition to increase the resilience of the export sector to exchange rate shocks. Our results also suggest a positive relationship between the average export quality and aggregate export sales. From a methodological point of view, the findings imply that exchange rate pass-through estimations without quality controls tend to be biased regardless of aggregation level or type of data.     

Integrated measures of sales, merchandising, and distribution

Managers track marketing performance with measures of sales, distribution, and merchandising. These can be calculated at different levels of aggregation with respect to geographic areas, time periods, and products. To be most useful, performance measures should have parallel and consistent meanings across the different levels. Starting from the decomposition of sales into base and incremental volume as provided by data suppliers at the underlying level of item-store-week, we define a set of performance measures that fit together into a simple model. It is shown that these definitions permit consistent aggregation into analogous measures and models at higher levels. An example drawing on Ocean Spray Cranberries data illustrates the advantages of the measures for comparing marketing performance across levels of aggregation.     

INTRA-INDUSTRY SPECIALIZATION AND THE NORTH AMERICAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This article provides a detailed examination of changes in indicators of intra-industry specialization in manufactured goods in trade between the United States and Mexico over the first five years of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The analysis is conducted at the three-digit SITC level of industry aggregation. Many industries experienced large increases in intraindustry trade (IIT). Only nine industries experience declines in IIT. Changes in various indicators of intra-industry specialization suggest few U.S. industries are candidates for significant adjustment problems. Industries facing potential adjustment pressures account for less than one-fourth of total U.S. imports from Mexico. These findings should lessen opposition to greater regional economic integration in the Western Hemisphere by easing fears that entire industries and jobs will disappear.     

Do Complex Moral Reasoners Experience Greater Ethical Work Conflict?

Individuals who disagree that organizational interests legitimately supersede those of the wider society may experience conflict between their personal standards of ethics and those demanded by an employing organization, a conflict that is well documented. An additional question is whether or not individuals capable of complex moral reasoning experience greater conflict than those reasoning at a less developed level. This question was first positioned in a theoretical framework and then investigated using 115 survey responses from a student sample. Correlational analysis and hierarchical regression indicated that individuals scoring high on the Defining Issues Test measure of Kohlberg's stages of moral development experienced significantly greater workplace ethical conflict than low scorers. The finding that complex moral reasoners perceive greater conflict between their personal standards and typical organizational demands raises the issue of what reasoning orientation is rewarded in organizations. Individuals capable of complex moral reasoning may be likely to leave traditional organizations due to high conflict but more ‘ethically friendly’ organizations for complex reasoners seem unlikely unless these people occupy influential positions.     

The EMF uncertainty problem related to mobile phones: where do consumers place their trust?

This paper addresses the uncertainty problem, i.e. cases characterized by lack of knowledge or scientific uncertainty. In such situations, it can be hard for consumers to ‘voice’ or practise consumer power. One field characterized by the uncertainty problem is electromagnetic radiation. An explicit goal of this study has been to articulate Norwegian consumers' practices, attitudes and beliefs regarding electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones to public authorities and consumer policy makers. The study was based on 1000 telephone interviews collected in 2008. Today, experts disagree on the potential health effects of radiation from electromagnetic fields (EMF), as well as standards for safe limits of exposure to mobile phones, base stations and wireless telecommunication systems. In addition, complicated technology and extremely rapid product development and diffusion leave consumers' security considerations to their own beliefs and trust. Whether or not electromagnetic radiation from mobile phones constitutes a health hazard will not be addressed in this paper. Rather, it will focus on how consumers react to this situation of uncertainty. The material reveals four main ways in which consumers can solve what we have named the EMF uncertainty problem: the confident and comfortable way, the sceptical and cautious way, the responsible and good citizen way, and finally, the neglecting way. The paper also discusses the precautionary principle related to EMF. Who should be precautionary: the public authorities, the mobile phone industry or the consumers themselves? We believe that a consistent governmental precautionary policy in combination with consumers taking their own precautionary measures is a viable solution. In this way, all consumers would be addressed and aided when navigating this field of uncertainty.     

Using Inductive Learning to Predict Bankruptcy

An emerging trend in organizational computing is using information technology to learn decision knowledge from enterprise data. The primary contribution of this study is the presentation of a sound theory and a comprehensive technique for learning the decision model for predicting bankruptcy. The theory is based on the information contained in cash flow components, which is the foundation of valuation theory, and an analytical system that measures the amount of uncertainty in the cash flow information. The approach links a tree-based inductive learning system that relies on the concept of entropy, with an information system based on the cash flow of a firm. A test of the cash flow approach involves the cash flow components for a sample of 99 failed and 99 non-failed companies. The structural instability of cash flow components generated by an inductive learning system is a serious issue for financial analysts. However, this shortcoming is overcome by using a jackknife procedure to develop a global tree that identifies the most important cash flow components. The final global tree found only 3 cash flow components were needed to classify correctly 89% of the companies as either failed or non-failed. Only a few early studies achieved a higher level of predictive accuracy. The 3 significant cash flow components were dividends, net investment, and net operating cash flow. Using the same data, a probit statistical technique generated a 67.5% predictive accuracy. In summary, the inductive learning results indicate that cash flow components are not only a natural tool for explaining the bankruptcy process, but they provide a high level of predictive accuracy.     

Cross‐national differences in proneness to scarcity effects: The moderating roles of familiarity,uncertainty avoidance,and need for cognitive closure

The scarcity effect is a powerful social‐influence principle used by marketers to increase the subjective desirability of products. This study explores cross‐national differences in proneness to the scarcity effect and attempts to explain observed differences in terms of boundary conditions. Results of a shopping simulation experiment show a positive effect of scarcity on purchase intent and a greater proneness to such among participants from a lower‐ (U.S.) versus higher‐ (France) context culture. Moreover, the scarcity effect is moderated by product familiarity, uncertainty avoidance, and need for cognitive closure. Differential familiarity levels may help explain the observed cross‐national differences. Managerial implications concern the conditions under which marketing appeals based on scarcity should be more (versus less) persuasive. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.