Islamic financing and bank risks: The case of Malaysia

We examine whether Islamic financing can explain three important bank risks in a country with a dual banking system: credit risk, interest‐rate risk, and liquidity risk. Using Malaysian data, we find that commercial banks with Islamic financing have significantly lower credit and liquidity risks but significantly higher interest‐rate risk than banks without Islamic financing. There is also evidence that bank size is significantly related to credit risk; the proportion of loan sales to total liabilities and bank size are significant determinants of interest‐rate risk; and off‐balance‐sheet financing, the extent of securitization, loan volatility, bank capital, and bank size are statistically significantly related to liquidity risk. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

广西地方金融机构流动性风险及防范

结合广西地方金融机构具体情况,用传统流动性风险和流动性过剩两种观点相结合的方法进行分析,认为广西农村信用社和城市商业银行都存在的流动性风险,只是农信社存在的风险较大,而城市商业银行的流动性风险相对较小,针对流动性风险提出防范和减少地方金融机构流动性风险的方法。     

我国商业银行信贷风险管理相关问题探析

商业银行在经营活动过程中,主要面临着信贷风险、市场风险、利率风险、流动性风险和操作风险等。商业银行资本充足率不足,商业银行信贷风险管理内控制度弱,我国信贷资产证券化水平整体不高,是造成我国商业银行存在信贷风险管理的成因。政府应提高商业银行资本充足率,加强商业银行内部管理,加快商业银行信贷资产证券化发展。     

衍生工具风险的识别、评估与应对

衍生工具在为企业提供风险管理和收入机会的同时,本身也蕴含着巨大的风险.为了有效地管理衍生工具相关的风险,必须要采用科学的方法及时地识别和度量衍生工具的各类风险,并选择适当的风险应对策略,从而使风险敞口处于企业的风险偏好或容忍度之内.     

Economic policy uncertainty,CDS spreads,and CDS liquidity provision

Using a news-based index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), we find that EPU is positively associated with credit default swap (CDS) spreads and negatively associated with the number of liquidity providers in the CDS market. A 10% increase in EPU leads to an 8.4% increase in CDS spreads and a 4.0% decrease in the number of liquidity providers. Furthermore, the effects of EPU are persistent and robust after controlling for macroeconomic variables. Our results are also robust to different econometric methodologies. Overall, our findings suggest that, when EPU is high, investors find credit protection more costly and difficult to purchase.     

我国商业银行信贷风险管理相关问题探析

商业银行在经营活动过程中,主要面临着信贷风险、市场风险、利率风险、流动性风险和操作风险等。商业银行资本充足率不足,商业银行信贷风险管理内控制度弱,我国信贷资产证券化水平整体不高,是造成我国商业银行存在信贷风险管理的成因。政府应提高商业银行资本充足率,加强商业银行内部管理,加快商业银行信贷资产证券化发展。     

中国公司债券利差影响因素研究--基于评级信息的分析

本文以信用利差分解理论为基础,结合债券评级信息,基于市场实际数据实证研究了中国公司债券市场信用利差的决定因素。结果表明,预期违约损失在税后信用利差中只占很小的比例,无风险利率的期限结构、流动性风险因子、宏观经济指标等因子都对信用利差有较显著的解释力。     

Pricing IMF liquidity provision: The value of the IMF liquidity commitment

This paper presents a market-based framework for pricing the International Monetary Fund's commitment to provide liquidity assistance, accounting for the credit risk and the insurance benefit involved in such operations. It is based on the isomorphic correspondence between Fund liquidity and common stock put options. The illustrative numerical examples show that the value of this liquidity guarantee could range between several and three hundreds basis points depending on the borrower's creditworthiness, the volatility of capital flows to the borrowing country, and the amount of funds potentially needed to meet the borrower's external obligations.     

The Interdependence between Trade Credit and Bank Lending: Commitment in Intermediary Firm Relationships

This study investigates the interdependence between trade and bank credit among 468 Portuguese small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). The results show that a single bank relationship is prevalent among Portuguese SMEs, indicating that the proprietary borrower information that banks obtain through their relationship results in an information monopoly that creates a holdup problem and leads to high interest rates. Suppliers that can control their customers' credit risk may provide additional credit and thus help alleviate concerns associated with holdup costs. Trade credit is a viable alternative to short‐term debt, especially when firms' main bank is unwilling to increase its exposure to liquidity constraints.     

农村金融流动性风险分析及预防

随着近年来金融危机的出现和潜在危机的浮出,流动性风险成为了值得各国、各金融机构关注的风险隐患。通过对部分涉农金融机构的负债情况和机构分布情况进行数据归纳,体现出我国现行农村金融机构信贷质量差,资金的时效性强等多方面的问题。预防农村金融流动性风险,应建立特有的农村金融机构人才培养机制,认真考察不同地区的流动性资金的走向情况,做出合理的流动性风险管理规划,并加强各地区的联系和沟通,组建风险预警体系和完善相应的保险机制。     

次贷危机背景下我国商业银行对个人住房信贷风险的防范

美国次贷危机已演变成为了全球性的金融危机。我国商业银行的个人住房信贷扩张累积了较大风险与个贷危机,次贷危机的冲击将使个人住房贷款者信用风险的集中爆发,也会使房地产市场发展的不确定性风险加大等问题完全暴露。我国商业银行必须采取措施,提前防范其对银行体系内个人住房信贷所产生的不良影响,严格控制个人住房贷款者的信用级别,完善并严厉执行银行体系的内部控制,增强银行自身的流动性,加强金融创新监管,以全面保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

资产证券化的必要性及可行性

随着我国商业银行资产负债期限结构错配导致流动性风险隐患的日益增强,以及银行监管所要求的资本量增加,使得作为风险转移方式之一的信贷资产证券化应运而生。本文通过分析我国资本充足率不足、银行业所处的环境以及我国资本市场投融资体制的现状,说明了我国实行资产证券化势在必行。同时由于资产证券化有广阔的需求前景,大量的国外成熟、成功的经验以及我国成功的资产证券化的实践决定我国实行资产证券化具有可行性。     

Accounting for sovereign tail risk in emerging economies: The role of global and domestic risk factors

This paper evaluates the role of global and domestic risk factors in explaining sovereign tail risk for 18 emerging economies. Sovereign tail risk is defined as the likelihood of a sharp rise in sovereign credit risk. We find that both global and domestic risk factors contribute significantly to sovereign tail risk, with explanatory power increasing with the severity of tail risk in a non-linear fashion. Indeed, their contributions have become stronger following the global financial crisis. In particular, global liquidity conditions, commodity prices and economic growth are ranked as the major risk factors for sovereign tail risk among the EMEs.     

刍议商业银行加强中小企业信贷风险管理问题

当前,我国中小企业普遍面临着融资困难的状况,给中小企业发展带来了巨大的阻力。原因主要是由于中小企业自身实力较弱,经营管理制度不成熟,商业银行对中小企业信贷存在较高的风险等。商业银行在对中小企业信贷风险管理方面应该遵循全面性、系统性、谨慎性的原则,建立有用的、适合地区实际情况的信用风险管理体系,制定风险管理制度、程序和措施,提高银行贷款的质量,及时识别可能存在的风险,对风险进行监测并及时控制,从而确保信贷风险在合理的范围内,尽量减少不良贷款,确保银行资产的合理流动的目标。     

Liquidity Constraint on the Production of Firms in Southern Italy

The paper shows how small and medium enterprises located in the less developed regions of Southern Italy face higher liquidity constraints compared to the firms in the Central-Northern Italian regions. The reasons for these constraints are the undersized nature of firms and higher risk of business activity. Consequently, credit rationing is more extensive. In order to analyse the effects on the potential growth of firms’ production, a simple model is presented, followed by estimates for growth. The results confirm the existence of a bottleneck of financial resources devoted to current finance production that limits the accumulation of working capital even when faced with favourable market opportunities.     

Post-Keynesian endogenous money theory: Horizontalists,structuralists and the paradox of illiquidity

The paper aims to provide a theoretical advancement in the post-Keynesian debate between horizontalists and structuralists by offering an additional theoretical support to the horizontalist view. Through the newly introduced notion of paradox of illiquidity, a critique to the endogenous money–liquidity preference model is developed, by focusing on the relationship between the volume of loans and the mark-up. The paradox of illiquidity aims to deny: (a) the idea of a banking sector achieving illiquid position during its lending activities and, consequently, (b) the view of an upward sloping credit supply curve.     

CREDIT SPREADS, OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE, AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT AND JUMP RISK

We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the "smooth fitting" principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.     

基于信用扩张的金融安全研究评述

本文认为,信用过度无序扩张导致金融系统不断积累风险直至最终爆发.信用扩张在金融风险扩大过程中起主导作用,银行信贷扩张可以通过多样的流动性效应使大量资金流向股市等虚拟经济领域,推动能源、原材料以及房地产等资产价格快速上涨.信用过快扩张会加剧我国经济、金融结构失衡,阻碍产业升级和经济增长方式的转变,最终影响经济与金融体系的安全及稳定.     

互联网消费金融资产证券化的发展反思与监管建议

自从2005年《信贷资产证券化试点管理办法》实施以来,在政策红利、经济发展、消费刺激以及技术深化的时代背景下,对互联网消费金融进行资产证券化日益成为金融市场发展的热点。互联网消费金融机构通过资产证券化,可以全面实现期限转换、信用转换、流动性转换以及风险转换等金融核心功能;但互联网消费金融资产证券化的过度创新发展,同时也带来了诸多法律风险,包括基础资产的真实性风险、破产隔离和真实出售的风险、信息披露不透明的风险以及杠杆率水平过高的违规风险。对此,本文通过分析目前我国互联网消费金融资产证券化的监管现状与不足,以给出互联网消费金融资产证券化健康发展的监管建议。