Trade and labour standards: theory and new empirical evidence

Recent trade negotiations, both at the regional and multilateral level, have seen a resurgence of the issue of trade and labour standards. Labour interests in high-standards countries argue that low labour standards are an unfair source of comparative advantage, and that increasing imports from low-standards countries will have an adverse impact on wages and working conditions in high-standards countries, thus leading to a race to the bottom of standards. For low-standards countries, there is the fear that this is just a form of disguised protectionism and that the imposition of high labour standards upon them is equally unfair since it will erode their competitiveness, the latter being largely based on labour costs. Our objective in the present paper is to cast some light on the above debate from both a theoretical and empirical perspective. In particular, we first discuss some possible theoretical links between labour standards and comparative advantage through their effects on the terms of trade. We then investigate empirically the relationship between labour standards, comparative advantage and export performance. Overall, our empirical results suggest that caution should be exercised before drawing broad conclusions on the magnitude and direction of these effects.     

Globalisation, internal labour markets and the migration of the highly skilled

Over the last decade highly skilled migration has been gaining relative importance in European migration flows. Following the goods and factor markets the market for highly skilled labour has thus also started to globalise. How are the globalisation processes of the world-wide goods, capital and labour markets interlinked? What role do international enterprises and their internal labour markets play in increasing highly skilled migration? What trends can be expected for the future?     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, Asian Economic Papers, 9, 2010 and 54, explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial, and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.     

Globalisation,Women's Economic Rights and Forced Labour

Globalisation critics are concerned that increased trade openness and foreign direct investment exacerbate existing economic disadvantages of women and foster conditions for forced labour. Defenders of globalisation argue instead that as countries become more open and competition intensifies, discrimination against any group, including women, becomes more difficult to sustain and is therefore likely to recede. The same is argued with respect to forced labour. This article puts these competing claims to an empirical test. We find that countries that are more open to trade provide better economic rights to women and have a lower incidence of forced labour. This effect holds in a global sample as well as in a developing country sub‐sample and holds also when potential feedback effects are controlled via instrumental variable regression. The extent of an economy's ‘penetration’ by foreign direct investment by and large has no statistically significant impact. Globalisation might weaken the general bargaining position of labour such that outcome‐related labour standards might suffer. However, being more open toward trade is likely to promote rather than hinder the realisation of two labour rights considered as core or fundamental by the International Labour Organisation, namely the elimination of economic discrimination and of forced labour.     

Globalisation and Inter‐occupational Inequality: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

How does globalisation affect inter‐occupational wage inequality within countries? This paper examines this by focusing on two dimensions of globalisation: openness to trade and openness to capital flows, using a relatively new data set on occupational wages. Estimates from a dynamic model for 15 OECD countries spanning the period 1983–2003 suggest that increased openness increases occupational wage inequality in poorer OECD countries as predicted by the Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson model, but for the more advanced OECD countries, we find no significant effect. The absence of the expected result for the latter category can be due to a rapid increase in the supply of skilled labour, to outsourcing of skilled jobs or because changes in the trade flows are too small to have any significant effect in those countries.     

Images of Globalisation in the Mass Media

Increasing flows of goods, capital and labour across various national borders have signalled the ever‐increasing integration or ‘globalisation’ of international markets. The impacts of globalisation are complex and multidimensional and have been intensely debated in the academic literature. Likewise, globalisation and its impacts have also gained attention in the mass media. Yet findings on the way globalisation has been portrayed in the mass media are mixed. In this paper, we examine the conceptual evolution and overall progression of tone of globalisation coverage in the Associated Press from 1984 to 2004. We find that AP reporters have weaved a number of key themes in their stories: growth and efficiency, poverty, employment, environment and migration among others. More‐over, we find ‘balance’ in reporting to the extent that both sides of an argument are presented in an article. However, in absolute terms reporting is skewed in favour or against a specific issue depending on story narrative employed. Our empirical results go some way to reconciling why news organisations feel they present balanced and objective coverage while proponents and opponents on a specific issue feel that coverage is biased one way or the other.     

Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Financial Trade: A Reappraisal

Emerging market crises have suggested that a national benefit‐cost assessment of external financial liberalisation could well prove unfavourable. This paper re‐examines the principle of comparative advantage in its application to financial trade to seek guidance on measures that might permit a fuller realisation of the potential benefits involved. Drawing a parallel with Balasubramanyam's work on the gains from FDI and international migration we distinguish between those arising in financial trade from the net transfer of capital, and those deriving from the contemporaneous exchange of financial claims or services of equivalent value. In the first interpretation a country's comparative advantage is manifested by its role in ‘intertemporal’ trade (as a borrower or lender). Our alternative emphasis is on the contractual risk‐return characteristics of the financial claims exchanged. This perspective is applied firstly to portfolio diversification gains arising from further international stock market integration. Secondly, price risk management for developing countries in international primary commodity trade is discussed. Both applications imply the need for significant institutional development but could realise approximately contemporaneous gains reminiscent both of those involved in merchandise trade and in the skills and product (or service) flows that Balasubramanyam has emphasised in relation to FDI and international migration.     

The Long‐run Relationship Between Trade and Population Health: Evidence from Five Decades

In recent years, the increase in international trade has sparked a debate about the impact of international trade on population health. To date, however, there has been very little econometric research on the relationship between these two variables. This paper examines the long‐run relationship between trade openness and population health for a sample of 74 countries over five decades, from 1960 to 2010. Using panel time‐series techniques, it is shown that international trade in general has a robust positive long‐run effect on health, as measured by life expectancy and infant mortality. This effect tends to be greater in countries with lower development levels, higher taxes on income, profits, and capital gains, and less restrictive business and labour market regulations.     

Configuration and Development of Alliance Portfolios: A Comparison of Same-Sector and Cross-Sector Partnerships

This paper explores the intersection between three processes associated with globalisation. First, the rise of emerging economies like China, Brazil and India, the so-called ‘Rising Powers’, and their potential to define the contours of globalisation, global production arrangements and global governance in the twenty-first century. Second, the importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR) goals in the shaping of global trade rules and industrial practices. Third, the significance of small firm clusters as critical sites of industrial competitiveness. Some of the most significant examples of successful, innovative and internationally competitive small firm clusters from the developing world are located in the ‘Rising Powers’ and cluster promotion is a core element of national industrial policy in some of these countries. There is also evidence of engagement by clustered actors with corporate social responsibility goals around labour and environmental impacts. While these three processes have been separately studied there has been no attempt to explore their intersections. This paper addresses this gap through a comparative analysis of secondary data, and a detailed reading of the literature, on CSR and clusters in Brazil, China and India. It assesses the evidence on small firm clusters in the Rising Power economies and considers how these Rising Power clusters engage with CSR goals pertaining to labour, social and environmental standards. It argues for a greater focus on the formal and informal institutional context, termed the ‘social contract’, in explaining divergent experiences and practices observed across these countries. This raises important questions for future academic and policy research on clusters, CSR and the Rising Powers. The paper concludes by outlining a research agenda to explore the local and global consequences of the relationship between Rising Power clusters and international labour and environmental standards.     

China,India and the Commodity Boom: Economic and Environmental Implications for Low‐income Countries

The international role of China has risen steadily for two decades – and has become even more important in the current global recession. The growing supply of labour‐intensive manufactured exports from China has been accompanied by a huge expansion in its imports both of raw materials and of skill‐intensive manufactured parts and components. This ‘offshoring’ of intermediates production by a large, labour‐abundant economy has economic and environmental implications for other developing economies. More recently, the rapid expansion of the Indian economy and trade indicates that it too will soon exert similar effects on global markets. We sketch a model showing how the growth of these developing‐country ‘giants’ generates adjustment pressures on other developing economies. We discuss in particular how differences in relative factor endowments of resource‐rich economies can produce quite different outcomes in the context of product fragmentation and expanding commodity trade. We also explore the effects on production, trade, environment and prospects for future growth in resource‐rich economies, particularly in the context of weak institutions and other market failures. We illustrate these different impacts by considering the cases of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand and highlight implications for growth, development and policy.     

美国贸易政策不确定性与新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动北大核心CSSCI

本文使用1996年2月-2020年1月35个新兴经济体的跨境股票型基金微观数据,实证考察美国贸易政策不确定性对新兴经济体跨境股票资本流动的影响。结果表明:美国贸易政策不确定性上升会导致新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入下降,这一影响在2008年全球金融危机后更为显著。受国别因素影响,美国贸易政策不确定性的影响存在异质性。一国外汇风险暴露水平更高、国际金融一体化风险更大、与美国直接贸易联系更紧密,受到的美国贸易政策不确定性的影响更显著,更高的利率水平有利于缓解美国贸易政策不确定性的影响。从全球价值链视角来看,美国贸易政策不确定性上升对处于研发密集型行业下游和邮政通讯、金融商业服务等行业下游的经济体影响显著。渠道分析表明,全球投资者对新兴经济体的国别风险情绪变化是美国贸易政策不确定性冲击的重要传导渠道。进一步研究表明,中美贸易摩擦期间,主要受美国贸易政策不确定性影响,加征关税会显著降低新兴经济体跨境股票型基金净资本流入。在金融开放进程中,新兴经济体应防范外部不确定性引发的资本流动剧烈波动风险,保持宏观经济与金融市场稳定。     

Impacts of tangible and intangible elements of Aid for Trade on the globalisation of developing countries

The Aid for Trade initiative was launched by the WTO in 2005 to help developing countries build their supply-side capacity and trade-related infrastructure to improve their capacity in the global market. This study investigates the impacts of both the tangible and intangible elements of this initiative on the economic, social and political globalisation of recipient countries. Intangible elements of Aid for Trade (aid for trade policy and regulation) may be considered as the software of Aid for Trade, while tangible elements (aid for economic infrastructure and building productive capacity) are the hardware. Countries that receive Aid for Trade can use both types of elements to succeed in globalisation. This research hypothesises that the tangible elements of Aid for Trade have a singular effect on the overall level of globalisation since they are expected to only increase the level of economic globalisation. Moreover, we expect that the intangible elements of Aid for Trade will have multiple effects on the overall level of globalisation as they have an impact on not only economic aspects but also social and political aspects of it. Using the dataset of Aid for Trade from 2002 to 2015, we find that the intangible elements of Aid for Trade have increased the recipients' level of overall globalisation.     

The impact of economic globalisation on unemployment: The Malaysian experience

Malaysia plans to emerge as one of the high-income economies by 2020 through the Economic Transformation Programme. A key component of this programme is to adopt more trade liberalisation policies that can generate a variety of economic activities, particularly more jobs. Although the integration with the world market bears the promise of prosperity for the developing and transitional economies, such integration may also adversely affect such economies. Preceding studies regarding labour market and international trade policies are still inconclusive and raise questions that require further examination; particularly in terms of whether exposure to the external sector can create or destroy jobs. The present study evaluates how Malaysia labour market has responded to the economic globalisation of the country. The study focuses on the long-run impact of economic globalisation on unemployment within the period between 1980 and 2014. The study uses autoregressive distributive lags method to examine the pattern of the relationship. The results show that economic globalisation have significant and positive impact on reducing unemployment in Malaysia in the long run. These findings indicate that policy-makers in Malaysia should facilitate the economy globalisation to maintain the current low level of unemployment rate.     

The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

The Relationship between Political Tensions,Trade and Capital Flows in ASEAN Plus Three

We estimate the effects of political tension on trade and capital flows in ASEAN Plus Three countries in the framework of a gravity model. We quantify political tension through text‐parsing software reading daily Reuters’ articles from 1990 to 2013 and exclude Brunei and Laos due to sparsity of news coverage. Regarding bilateral trade, we find that political conflict, measured by negative reports in Reuters’ articles, seems to only affect bilateral trade between countries that are not both members of the World Trade Organization (WTO). For these countries, a 1 per cent rise in the tension score results in a 0.05 per cent decline in trade. There is weaker evidence that improvement in bilateral relationship, measured by positive reports in Reuters’ articles, is associated with more trade. As for capital flows, while long‐term capital flows, measured by foreign direct investment, appear to be unaffected by short‐term tensions, both a non‐democratic government and a history of war negatively affect FDI.     

The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native‐born Employment in Europe

The debate regarding the economic effects of employing immigrants has attracted renewed interest in European countries since the economic crisis. We provide an approximation of the labour market effects of immigrant workers in four European countries during the global economic crisis after briefly analysing native and foreign‐born worker conditions for the most recent period. Our analysis focuses on the correlation between the stock of immigrant workers and the number of native labour market workers across several segments of the labour market using a simple model approach. Using Eurostat and LFS (Labour Force Survey) data, we estimate a structural dynamic model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to examine adjustment dynamics in the labour market and labour market segment and worker educational levels, countries of origin and genders. Overall, the empirical results suggest that immigrant labour force effects on native‐born worker employment rates have been persistent and but weak throughout the business cycle. These effects are globally positive, and immigrant origins do not appear to change the nature of their impact. We offer some explanations for these findings related to dual labour markets and to differences in levels of substitution among native and immigrant workers.     

Is Globalisation in Danger?

This paper compares the globalisation experience of the late 19^th century with that of the post world war period. It notes the enormous changes in the world economy arising from the increasing participation of the developing countries in the world goods, labour and capital markets and the reduction in the cost of communications that has underlined these changes. More importantly globalisation was made by a consensus on trade, debt and macroeconomics which has led to policy reforms in developing countries including China whose entry into the WTO provides a high watermark in globalisation of the latter period. The paper notes that globalisation is not in danger of reversal given that the forces that led to this outcome in the earlier period have become weak. Ideas, interests, international relations and stability achieved in the post World War period gives ground for qualified optimism about the continuation of globalisation.     

Globalization,China's free (read bonded) labour market,and the Chinese trade unions

After two decades of economic reform during which China developed a strong export thrust into the world market, an industrial labour market has taken shape in China. But it is not really a free labour market in that deposits are generally required of workers when they commence employment. For some migrant workers this has led to a condition equivalent to being bonded, which enables Asian foreign investors to establish harsh labour regimes in the factories they manage. The Chinese official trade unions are at a crossroads – do they side with the workers, management or with the party-state?     

Trade‐related Job Loss,Wage Insurance and Externalities: An Ex Ante Efficiency Rationale for Wage Insurance

The extension of adjustment assistance to those who have suffered trade‐related job displacement is widely supported on both sides of the economics of globalisation debate. The form that such assistance should take, namely wage insurance, is also the subject of wide agreement. Nevertheless, the formal economic rationales offered for such a policy are varied, including political economy arguments, equity arguments and market failure/ex post efficiency arguments. This note proposes an ex ante efficiency‐based rationale for the provision of adjustment assistance in the specific form of wage insurance. Job displacement imposes pecuniary externalities on displaced workers, which, in a complete markets setting, induce only shifts along the ex ante Pareto‐efficient frontier. However, when markets are incomplete, pecuniary externalities become welfare‐relevant. Without the possibility of diversifying or hedging the risk of pecuniary external diseconomies of job displacement using contingent claims, welfare is reduced ex ante. Wage insurance – whether publicly underwritten, privately underwritten (as in Shiller's (2003 ) ‘livelihood insurance’), or supplied on a mixed public/private basis – completes the market for contingent claims, allowing workers to diversify or hedge the risk of trade‐related pecuniary external diseconomies. By facilitating risk sharing, wage insurance removes an impediment to ex ante Pareto efficiency. Moreover, wage insurance affects not only post‐displacement behaviour by increasing the incentive to reacquire employment quickly, but it also affects pre‐displacement consumption and investment behaviour, in particular, lowering the threshold at which workers will be willing to undertake irreversible investment in industry‐specific skills.