A pure foreign exchange asset pricing model

If consumption tastes differ among countries, a position in foreign-denominated nominally riskless bonds is risky in real terms. Risk averse and rational consumer-investors facing such a situation would generally seek a diversified portfolio of foreign bonds. They would demand risk premia in accordance with portfolio (covariance) risk. A model is specified to portray this behavior and it is tested with data from eight countries. The results indicate that the actual premia earned in foreign risky positions are positively related on average to portfolio risk measures; but the premia deviate significantly from those predicted by the model.     

The pecking order of cross-border investment

Is there a pecking order of cross-border investment in that countries become financially integrated through some types of investment rather than others? Using a novel database of bilateral capital stocks for all types of investment - FDI, portfolio equity securities, debt securities as well as loans - for a broad set of 77 countries, we show that such a pecking order indeed exists. The paper focuses on two key determinants of this pecking order: information frictions and the quality of host country institutions. Overall, we find that in particular FDI, and to some extent also loans, are substantially more sensitive to information frictions than investment in portfolio equity and debt securities. We also show that the share as well as the size of FDI that a country receive are largely insensitive to institutional factors in host countries, while portfolio investment is by far the most sensitive to the quality of institutions. This provides new evidence in favor of some hypotheses but contradicts others put forward in the literature on trade in financial assets.     

Financial globalisation and the labour share in developing countries: The type of capital matters

In this paper, we investigate how de facto financial globalisation has influenced the labour share in developing countries. Our main argument is the need to distinguish between different types of capital in this context as they differ in their effect on the host countries' production process and vary concerning their bargaining power vis-à-vis labour. Our econometric analysis of the impact of foreign direct versus portfolio investment in a sample of about 40 developing and transition countries after 1992 supports this claim. Using different panel data techniques to address potential endogeneity problems, we find that foreign direct investment has a positive effect on the labour share in developing countries, while the impact of portfolio investment is significantly smaller and potentially negative. Our results also highlight that de facto foreign investment cannot explain the decline of the labour share in developing countries over the investigated period.     

Dealer spread and portfolio selection under price risks: evidence from the gold service industry

The bid and ask quotes as well as portfolio selection decisions of gold dealers who face a gold price risk are investigated within a continuous-time framework. The research integrates into a systematic analysis the decision of asset allocation in financial economics as well as the decision of a bid–ask spread in a market microstructure. The holding rate of gold is correlated to the intensity and jump size of the Poisson process, which is a hedging demand for gold assets against the risk of extreme events. According to empirical analysis from the gold service industries, the gold spread return is related to the expected return, volatility and jump risks of gold prices.     

The nature and determinants of comovement between developed,emerging and frontier equity markets: Europe versus Asia‐Pacific

International investors are increasingly attracted towards emerging and frontier markets because of their potential to enhance diversification benefits of a global portfolio. This calls for a rigorous analysis of the nature and determinants of stock market comovement between developed, emerging, and frontier markets in Europe and Asia‐Pacific regions. The findings suggest that unlike their Asia‐Pacific counterparts, European developed, emerging, and frontier stock markets display a higher degree of comovement. Although Asia‐Pacific frontier markets provide good diversification opportunities, investors must be cautioned against their weak financial system. The volatility of returns, gross domestic product growth rate, and the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) are the key determinants of stock market comovement in Europe. The mechanisms by which comovement in the Asia‐Pacific region is strengthened differ across markets. Comparative analysis of comovement and its determinants across different classes of equity markets and geographies is expected to provide valuable perspectives to global investors, portfolio managers, and policymakers.     

The Asymmetric Effect of Endowments on Vertical Intra‐industrial Trade

(1238) J. Milgram‐Baleix and Ana I. Moro‐Egido This paper investigates the determinants of vertical Spanish intra‐industry trade with developed and developing countries. We empirically test the comparative advantage explanation. To do so, we build physical, human and technological capital stocks. On average, when using OLS techniques, differences in endowments are a limitation for vertical intra‐industry trade. Using quantile regression techniques, we observe that this negative effect decreases in absolute terms as vertical intra‐industry trade flows increase and, in some cases, the impact becomes positive for the upper tails, thus supporting the view of a reduced version of the comparative advantage explanation. Our results provide interesting insights into Spain and emerging countries. A large part of Spanish trade already takes place on an inter‐industry basis or consists of exporting low quality products in exchange for similar products of a higher quality range, in particular with European countries but more surprisingly with emerging countries. Our study shows that high quality exports and horizontal intra‐industry trade are mainly driven by proximities of demand and technological capital while low quality exports share most determinants of inter‐industry trade.     

The Niche Portfolio Strategy to Global Expansion: The Influence of Market Resources on Demand for Formula One Racing

ABSTRACT

International products can achieve mass adoption in some countries, while languishing outside the mainstream in other countries. Theoretically, global organizations can manage market entry and divergent demand by practicing a niche portfolio strategy that requires marketers to appropriately prioritize and cultivate key resources in underdeveloped niches while maintaining dominant status in traditional markets. The authors use the international context of Formula One Racing to examine how market resources influence demand for the sport in 19 different geographically defined niches across four continents. Hierarchical regression analysis demonstrates positive incremental demand effects for participant, spectator, and sponsor-based resources, while media-based resources were nonsignificant.     

Assessing Dynamics of Palm Oil Import Demand: The Case of Six Asian Countries

This article uses annual data to investigate the palm oil import demand in selected Asian countries (India, China, Japan, Bangladesh, Korea, and Pakistan) through using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The findings of the study show that the palm oil and substitute oils prices and the national income of the importing countries are significant determinants of palm oil demand across the six models. Other factors such as biofuel mandate, trade policies, and exchange rate also proved to be important factors affecting import demand for palm oil in some of these countries.     

The persistence of emerging market equity flows

The portfolio flows of institutional investors have been found to be highly persistent across countries and individual investment funds. This paper investigates the source of this persistence in emerging market equities. We employ the decomposition methodology in NBER Working Paper no. 9079 (July 2002), which decomposes the persistence of flows into four components: (i) own-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from informed trading within each country by individual funds); (ii) own-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchronicities across funds); (iii) cross-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchonicities within a fund) and (iv) cross-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from other reaction lags—such as contagion—across both countries and funds). We find evidence that all four components are positive in emerging markets. Our results differ from those in developed countries, in that we attribute approximately 10–20% of total persistence to cross-country effects (iii) and (iv). These findings are consistent with stories of contagion, which suggest that demand shifts move predictably from one country to another. They cannot easily be explained by informed trading alone or by wealth effects.     

Macroeconomic shocks and the co-movement of stock returns in Latin America

This paper studies the economic sources underlying the co-movement of real stock returns in Latin America. Following the literature on structural vector autoregressive models (SVARs), I use long-run restrictions to identify three structural shocks: demand, supply, and portfolio shocks. For some countries, portfolio shocks are important factors behind real stock returns. Furthermore, these shocks seem to be important in explaining cross-country co-movement patterns. However, these findings are not statistically strong due to the degree of uncertainty about the estimates of the importance of each structural shock and the cross-correlation coefficients. Therefore, macroeconomic shocks (supply and demand) cannot be neglected in accounting for the dynamics of real stock returns.     

Home Production Market Production and the Changing Allocation of Consumption Expenditures on Service

This article studies the determinants of the quantity of services purchased by consumers in the US over the period 1949–85. Price and income elasticities useful for assessing the likely future demand for services are derived. The theoretical model and empirical estimates differ from traditional approaches by considering, as parameters in the demand function, changes in male and female labour force participation rates and hours worked. One interesting implication of this model is that it permits estimating the shifr of home production of services into market production and therefore an empirical assessment of the degree to which national income growth has been overestimated in the post- war years.     

Why So Small? Explaining the Size of Firms in Latin America

On average, Latin American firms are small with respect to world patterns, both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and the amount of employment they generate. We examine data on firm size from developed and developing countries around the world to assess the influence of demand, supply and institutional factors on the size of the largest firms in each country. We find that, besides the size of the economy and the level of income per capita, the key determinants of the size of firms are trade openness, stock market capitalisation and physical infrastructure. Our simulations suggest that if the gaps with respect to the best Latin American performer were closed in each of these three areas, firm size in the countries of the region would – on average – reach world patterns.     

Turnover and return in global stock markets

I study how growth affects liquidity of global stock exchanges and how liquidity determines cross-sectional returns on those stock exchange index portfolios. I measure portfolio liquidity by turnover ratio computed as value of shares traded over the market capitalization. I obtain data from FIBV, an association of global stock exchanges. In a multiple regression model for turnover ratio, I find age, size, type of exchange, competition for order flow, and growth rate to be significant determinants of portfolio liquidity; however, exchange- and time-specific effects are more appropriate for modeling portfolio liquidity. The time effects yield to three distinct regimes, while the exchange-specific effects are surrogates for the legal systems, English common law, and Civil laws of the countries. I estimate the parameters of a multiple regression model in a two-stage GLS framework in which index return is a function of turnover. The GLS method is preferable since a turnover ratio may have a non-stationary, random component. The significant determinants of index return are turnover and volatility, although some of the volatility effect may be a spillover from a January effect. Investors expect higher return from high turnover markets. However, the positive turnover expected return relation is true only in emerging markets; in developed markets expected return is a function of volatility. This result confirms existing empirical evidence that high turnover stock portfolios generate superior returns and further the sources and pricing of risk in emerging and developed markets are different.     

The optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves

This paper presents a model for selecting an optimal foreign exchange reserves portfolio for semi-industrial and developing countries, using the mean—approach. The model described here focuses on the relationship between the composition of reserves and that of imports, as well as the impact of return and risk of the investments in each currency. The empirical importance of these factors is demonstrated by investigating the optimal policy for Israel in the period 1972–1976. In comparing the actual and the efficient portfolio of different groups of countries, we find that profit considerations play a greater role in semi-industrial and developing countries than in industrial ones.     

Gold price risk and the returns on gold mutual funds

A model is presented for estimating the theoretical gold price elasticity of the value of mutual funds investing in gold mining companies. The theoretical elasticity shows that if the funds invest in companies whose assets are comprised primarily of operating gold mines, then the return of an investment in the fund will be at least as great as an investment in gold (i.e., the gold price elasticity of the gold fund is greater than 1). Empirical tests of the above propositions are presented. Empirical tests also show, however, that the gold mutual funds contain a substantial amount of risk which is not explained either by market risk or gold price risk. Accordingly, gold mutual funds and gold bullion do not bring identical risks to an investor's portfolio.     

Real and Financial Sector Interaction Under Liberalization in an Open Developing Economy

A short‐run model incorporates instantaneous portfolio equilibrium with macroeconomic flows to clarify the structure of real–financial sector interactions. If equity and foreign exchange markets are introduced in structuralist theories of asset markets in developing countries, the key result that a fall in money supply raises the rate of inflation now holds only under special conditions on partial derivatives. But there is a tendency for interest rates to rise and for fluctuations in asset prices. Fuller integration of asset markets moderates these fluctuations. Outcomes are stable in spite of the generalized complementarity distinguishing equity markets from loan markets. Expectations play a major role. Implications for policy are to link domestic interest rates to foreign, remove artificial barriers to market integration, and stimulate demand as well as supply.     

The effects of the governance environment on the choice of investment mode and the strategic implications

Direct investment and indirect (portfolio) investment require different governance mechanisms for investor protection. The literature on the effect of the governance environment (such as the legal system) on investment, which had been relatively underdeveloped, has begun to draw more attention recently. Existing studies, however, have largely ignored the differences between the two modes of investment in terms of investor protection. Their finding that a poor governance environment deters foreign direct investment is mis-specified and fails to explain why countries with a poor governance environment attract relatively large amount of direct investment as opposed to portfolio investment.We introduce a framework that measures the level of rule-based governance environment in a capital receiving economy, with an especial attention to the information and enforcement mechanisms for investor protection facilitated by different governance environments. We argue that in countries with a weak rule-based governance environment, investors prefer direct investment to indirect (portfolio) investment, because the former can be better protected by private means. Our empirical test strongly supports our hypotheses. Strategic implications for investors are drawn in conclusion.     

基金投资组合风险评价中VaR的应用研究

近年来我国基金业发展迅猛,其所倡导的价值投资理念获得市场的巨大认同。与此同时,社会上对基金投资风险进行评价的需求日益强烈。如何量化基金投资组合的风险,已成为金融机构及投资者共同关注的问题。利用风险度量的VaR方法,对基金投资股票组合的风险进行实证研究,探讨其在组合风险评价中的应用。     

The impact of bilateral tax treaties: A multi-country analysis of FDI inflows into India

This paper models the role of tax treaties in promoting foreign direct investment (FDI) with the help of panel data for 14 countries for the period 1993–2011. A fixed effects (least squares dummy variable) model is developed that captures macroeconomic factors such as gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita income (PCI) in ratio form of home to host country. It also includes bilateral tax treaties as a determinant of FDI inflow. The results show that GDP is a major determinant that is demand driven and per capita income is a major determinant that is supply driven. FDI openness of the home countries and population are also significant determinants. The introduction of the treaty had a positive impact on FDI inflows into India. We get largely significant and positive results for the ‘age of the treaty effect’, especially, in the case of Germany, Switzerland and Japan. The main contribution of the paper is to show that both presence and ‘age of treaty’ are important determinants of FDI flows to India. Further, fundamentals like GDP and PCI are major variables that influence FDI inflows.     

Source Country Characteristics and the Inflow of Foreign Direct Investment into Saudi Arabia

The paper examines the impact of source country characteristics on the inflow of FDI into Saudi Arabia using a gravity‐type model including economic, distance and socio‐political variables. A unique database listing all new investments involving foreign ownership is used to construct a panel of 33 countries in the period 1980–2005. To account for many country–year observations with zero FDI, the negative binomial regression, the Tobit regression and the Heckman selection procedure are used. The conclusions drawn from the analysis employing panel‐based techniques differ from the results obtained from pooled regression models. Also, the determinants of FDI differ depending on whether foreign investment is measured in terms of investment expenditure or the number of individual foreign projects. The Heckman selection results reveal that there are a large number of factors affecting the decision to invest in Saudi Arabia, compared with relatively few determinants of the actual size of investment. Traditional size and distance characteristics hold to a great extent but the relationship between FDI and bilateral trade is unclear and there is some evidence that the countries that export to Saudi Arabia do not invest there. In terms of scope for possible spillovers, there is mixed evidence on whether the investment comes from more technologically advanced economies but volume‐wise important investments originate from countries characterised by high income per capita.