Novelties of financial crises in the 1990s and the search for new indicators

This paper argues that, first, despite some similarities, financial crises in the 1990s have featured substantial differences between them: the ERM crisis of 1992–1993 was mainly due to stringent monetary policies; the Mexican crisis of 1994–1995 was associated to private overconsumption; and the East Asian crisis of 1997–1999 were basically the result of private overinvestment. Therefore, as crises do not seem to present strong regularities over time, the task of trying to predict them on the basis of past developments is surely doomed to fail. As crises might be simply unpredictable, specialists should refrain from creating and developing predictors and focus instead on simpler early-warning indicators. Second, the paper reviews the main body of literature on leading indicators of crises and it suggests that the bulk of these conventional indicators do not seem to be appropriate to the East Asian episodes. In order to create a new set of early-warning indicators, economists should focus on non-conventional deficiencies, such as those related to financial fragility associated with financial deregulation and with capital inflows, to a declining efficiency of investment, and to a high short-term external debt (especially as a proportion of foreign exchange reserves).     

Economic growth,financial market,and twin crises

In this study, we look not only to provide empirical evidence to investigate the direct impact of financial crises on economic growth, but also to examine the roles of insurance development, financial liberalization, financial institution, and crisis intervention policies on the relationship between the two. We employ a panel data framework from 50 countries by applying the dynamic panel generalized method of moments model. Our main empirical results show that financial crises do have a significantly negative impact on economic growth. In addition, governments or authorities are encouraged to further enhance their insurance sector in order to help spur economic growth when financial crises arise. The government intervention policy choice is also an important factor influencing economic growth during crises.     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

Capital flows,current account deficits,and financial crises in emerging market economies

Some emerging market economies are said to face today conditions similar to those faced by Mexico in 1994 at the time of its serious financial crisis. This paper identifies a number of macroeconomic and financial indicators, constructs a profile of the Mexican economy at the time of the crisis, and then compares these with the conditions in other major emerging market economies in Latin America and Asia today in order to determine the extent to which they resemble those of Mexico at the time of the 1994 crisis. The conclusion is reached that macroeconomic and financial indicators cannot by themselves predict Mexican-style financial crises. In today's world of highly integrated capital markets, any anticipation of financial unsustainability can lead to a massive capital outflow from the nation and trigger a crisis, with the catalyst usually being a worsening political problem. The usefulness of the indicators discussed is in providing a profile of the financial condition of the nation, evaluating the potential danger of a financial crisis, anticipating the depth of the crisis if one arises, and pointing to the precautions that a nation can take in trying to avoid a crisis or reduce its severity if one does occur.     

Financial socialism: The role of financial economics in economic disorganization

A growing body of research shows evidence that financial economics played a significant role in recent financial crises, such as the subprime mortgage crisis, Enron and Long-Term Capital Management. This track record is a wake-up call for managers and investors who employ financial economic models. This paper demonstrates how financial economics decouples market prices from the valuation by customers and resource owners in a systematic way. As an organization principle, financial economics replaces value-driven investment by a theory-driven ruling of anonymous financial markets – a scenario warranting the title “financial socialism”. Implications for customer valuation, financial accounting, and a maxim for the sound application of financial economic models are presented.     

Financial crises and venture capital development: evidence from Indonesia

This exploratory study examines how financial crises impede or support venture capital (VC) development in the context of Indonesia and the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis (AFC). Using a mixed-methods research methodology, the study finds that financial crises have divergent effects on VC development. Financial crises support VC development through accelerated VC practise diffusion, but impede that development by slowing VC enabling conditions. The effects of the substantial macro institutional changes often associated with financial crises are insufficient to overcome these impediments, resulting in a smaller VC industry.     

Financial system fragility

A good financial system is essential for a well-functioning and efficient economy. It allocates capital to its most productive uses and manages risk. However, financial systems are fragile, and this fragility can cause financial crises which usually impact the real economy, as Japan and the United States have experienced. The causes of a financial crisis are many and varied, but commonalities exist. Financial crises usually create long periods of slow economic growth.     

Financial liberalization,prudential supervision,and the onset of banking crises

We examine what is perceived as one of the main culprits in the occurrence of banking crises: financial liberalization. As is typically argued, if liberalization is accompanied by insufficient prudential supervision of the banking sector, it will result in excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries and a subsequent crisis. Having evaluated the empirical validity of this hypothesis, we conclude that such a development is, at worse, only a medium run threat to the health of the banking sector. We find that a more immediate danger is the loss of monopoly power that liberalization typically entails. We base our conclusions on an empirical investigation of a panel-probit model of the occurrence of banking crises using macro-economic, institutional and political data.     

What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

The study examines the causes of financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980–2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries the vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalization of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.     

Crises and the Great Recession

The U.S. economy suffered in 2007–10 from crises in mortgage foreclosures and in financial markets, as well as a long recession that some have referred to as the Great Recession. The links between these events, or more broadly their causes, extent, and effects are sources of continuing controversy and uncertainty. This paper attempts to disentangle the links between the mortgage foreclosure crisis, the financial crisis, a possible banking crisis, and the Great Recession, at least in terms of timing, and also to provide an alternative view to the conventional wisdom, especially for the links of the crises to the recession and to each other.     

“Rules of thumb” for sovereign debt crises

This paper investigates the economic and political conditions that are associated to the occurrence of a sovereign debt crisis. We use a new statistical approach (Classification and Regression Tree) that allows us to derive a collection of “rules of thumb” that help identify the typical characteristics of defaulters. We find that not all crises are equal: they differ depending on whether the government faces insolvency, illiquidity, or various macroeconomic risks. We also characterize the set of fundamentals that can be associated with a relatively “risk-free” zone. This classification is important for discussing appropriate policy options to prevent crises and improve response time and prediction.     

The roles of news and volatility in stock market correlations during the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis has again brought the interdependencies of international financial markets to the fore, particularly during times of financial crises. This paper explores the relative roles of news and volatility in explaining the changes in correlations between national stock markets during the global financial crisis. Our results show that the majority of the correlations are more strongly explained by volatility rather than news. However as the global financial crisis evolves the relative role of news grows in importance.     

“Too Good to be True!”. The Effectiveness of CSR History in Countering Negative Publicity

Corporate crises call for effective communication to shelter or restore a company’s reputation. The use of corporate social responsibility (CSR) claims may provide an effective tool to counter the negative impact of a crisis, but knowledge about its effectiveness is scarce and lacking in studies that consider CSR communication during crises. To help fill this gap, this study investigates whether the length of company’s involvement in CSR matters when it uses CSR claims in its crisis communication as a means to counter negative publicity. The use of CSR claims in crisis communication is more effective for companies with a long CSR history than for those with a short CSR history, and consumer skepticism about claims lies at the heart of this phenomenon.     

财富的主体本质及其实现问题——从马克思的财富观看全球金融危机

马克思指出,财富的主体本质就是劳动,财富的主体本质实现就在于再生产人并实现为劳动。而人的＂对象化了的劳动＂——即物质财富成为主体（人）消费的对象,是人重新获得活动（劳动）的机体能力的基本前提。也就是说,财富只有作为人的消费的对象才成其为自身,财富的消费就是其本质的实现。而以资本积累为基础的扩大再生产,使财富不断远离自己的本质。财富的自我否定又直接导致货币贬值,进而出现危机。资本主义金融创新虽然借金融手段解决产品的过剩危机,让经济危机得以暂时缓解,但是同时积累了更多的资本结余问题,其突出表现就是把＂产品过剩＂直接表现为＂资本过剩＂。而当代金融危机的＂过度消费＂,是建立在＂借贷消费＂基础上的,究其实质是非主体本质实现的财富生产。因此,危机是不能避免的,当前全球金融危机不过是资本主义生产中＂资本过剩危机＂的一个佐证而已,只有坚持马克思主义的分析才能看到危机的实质。     

美国金融危机传导机制的研究

目前,美国金融危机所产生的影响仍未消除,对外开放程度越高的国家受到的影响越严重。金融危机包括货币危机、外债危机、银行业危机以及资本市场危机,四种危机之间相互感染,通过金融、贸易、心理等渠道将其传导到不同的地理空间及市场或领域之中。危机的传导在时间和空间上是同步进行的,并产生"连锁反应",对世界各国的影响极为严重。世界各国应健全金融法规,加强投资者的教育,并加大各国之间的经济交流,以更好的防范金融危机,共谋世界经济平稳健康地发展。     

Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck?

This paper attempts to explore the underlying causes of twin crises experienced by Turkey in November 2000 and February 2001. We study an extensive set of leading indicators of crises that are drawn from the existing literature. Our results identify three sets of vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy in triggering the financial crisis and bringing about the collapse of the Turkish lira. These are: first, the weak external position caused by excessive debt burden combined with the loss of competitiveness; second, the weak fiscal position resulting from the record levels of interest payments on domestic borrowing; and most importantly, third, weaknesses in the financial and banking sector. Given these observations, we argue that the success of financial sector reform is instrumental not only for putting the economy on a sustainable recovery path but also for reducing the likelihood of similar crises in the future. The general lesson to be drawn from this experience is that a sound financial system is a pre‐condition for the successful operation of a fixed exchange rate regime.     

Four myths and a financial crisis

The main driving force of the financial crisis of 2007‐2009 was a rapid deterioration of the trust of private agents in the quality of financial institutions. In turn, this loss of confidence entailed a sharp decline in many asset prices and brought to their knees several large financial institutions with centennial traditions. This article surveys the critical moments of the crisis, presents some of the shock‐amplifying mechanisms, and comments on the effectiveness of various policy measures. We point out four conceptual myths that did not survive this crisis. The conclusion opens the debate on what structural changes in the existing financial architecture are required to contain such crises in the future. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Can emerging market central banks bail out banks? A cautionary tale from Latin America

This paper investigates whether emerging market countries can implement monetary policies to cope with financial crises as advanced countries did during the recent global crisis—injecting significant amounts of money into the financial system without facing major short-run adverse macroeconomic repercussions. Using panel data techniques, the paper analyzes episodes of financial turmoil in 16 Latin American countries during 1995–2007. The results show that developing and emerging market countries should be cautious because injecting money on a large scale into the financial system may fuel further macroeconomic instability, increasing the chances of simultaneous currency crises.     

Richard Coopey, Sean O'Connell, and Dilwyn Porter. Mail Order Retailing in Britain: A Business and Social History. New York: Oxford University Press, 2005. viii + 248 pp. ISBN 0-19-829650-9, $95.00 (cloth).

There is little doubt that there is a great need for more booksof this type. This book is a welcome addition to books in theOxford University Press collection that address issues in businesshistory. Therefore, as an addition to a collection that includesGeoffrey Jones’s British Trading Companies in the Nineteenthand Twentieth Centuries, this book provides access to a fascinatingaspect of British commercial     

Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets

As part of a broader financial development reform agenda, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries have successfully expanded and revitalised their stock markets over the last decade. Whereas previous contributions have investigated efficiency, international integration and portfolio diversification opportunities, very little is known about these markets’ vulnerability to external financial crises. In this paper, we investigate shift‐contagion to the MENA region using a comprehensive battery of econometric tests for a number of different crises episodes: the 1997 Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian virus and its Brazilian sequel, the 2000 Turkish collapse, the 9/11 turmoil, the 2001 Argentinean crisis, the 2002 Enron/WorldCom scandal and the 2007–09 global financial crisis. We found that Turkey, Israel and Jordan were the most vulnerable markets over the 1997–2009 period, followed by Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt and Lebanon. Our results also highlight heterogeneous but increasing levels of sensitivity to external financial shocks, especially during the recent global financial crisis. From a financial point of view, this suggests that MENA‐based diversification strategies may be relatively inefficient during periods of global turmoil. From an economic point of view, our results suggest that stock market development also involves potential destabilisation costs. This issue should be acknowledged and addressed by policymakers if these countries are to ensure a smooth transition towards international financial integration.