Consumer Response to Package Downsizing: Evidence from the Chicago Ice Cream Market

It is common among producers of consumer packaged goods to reduce the volume of product per package such that the new size replaces the old one. This tactic is commonly referred to as package downsizing. In this article, we investigate the extent to which consumers have different sensitivities to package price and package size in order to shed light on the managerial implications of package downsizing. To do so, we estimate a random utility model of demand to measure consumer response to price and package size using household scanner panel data on bulk ice cream purchases in Chicago. The estimation framework involves modeling household heterogeneity, addressing price endogeneity and accounting for unbalanced choice alternatives. Our main finding is that consumers are less responsive to package size than to price; the demand elasticity with respect to package size is approximately one-fourth the magnitude of the demand elasticity with respect to price. This result implies that marketing managers can use downsizing as a hidden price increase in order to pass through increases in production costs, that is, cost of raw materials, and maintain, or increase, their profits.     

Does Final Market Demand Elasticity Influence the Location of Export Processing? Evidence from Multinational Decisions in China

Given the importance many developing countries attach to attracting foreign investors engaged in export‐processing activities, surprisingly little is known about the sensitivity of these investors to local wage differences and the role played by final product market conditions. Using data on 2,884 foreign‐invested manufacturing projects in China, we estimate the importance of host province wages to firm’s location choice and investigate how this sensitivity varies with demand conditions facing the industry in China’s largest export market, the United States. We use the profit function to show theoretically that firms’ ability to pass wage costs through to final markets matters for location choice and we test the implications of the theory using a control‐function technique for conditional logit developed by Petrin and Train . As predicted, we find that investors facing more elastic demand in the US market are more sensitive to wages across export‐processing locations. Taking both the factor intensity of the activity and final market demand elasticity into account, we find that investors producing homogenous goods, such as metals, chemicals, and food processing, are more likely to be attracted by relatively low wages than those producing differentiated goods. We also find that while OECD investors are more responsive to wage differences than are investors from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau, they are less likely to choose a location that has received a large share of prior foreign investment.     

International competition and wage differentials - the case of Taiwan

This paper documents and investigates the structure of relative wages among skill groups (distinguished by gender, education and potential experience) in Taiwan over the period 1978 to 1990. To account for these changes, I construct a model of wage determination in which demographic groups are treated as separate inputs into the production process. Thus, the changes in relative wages are determined by (i) changes in the relative supply of input factors; (ii) changes in the product composition; and (iii) biased technical changes that shift the relative demand for inputs. Analysis of OECD trade statistics shows that manufacturing imports from Taiwan to OECD, the main source of derived demand for the unskilled labour, exhibited a time pattern that matches the overall relative demand shifts.     

A model of consumer information search and online network externalities

This article looks at a consumer who faces a choice between two sources of information: conventional and online. The online source is different from the conventional one because consumers care about how many people are using it along with them. Generally, the more users the better (positive network externality), but, on the other hand, the presence of more users implies a reduction of available capacity, about which consumers also care. We assume that consumers maximize their utility, which is modeled as a function of all other consumption, knowledge, and network externalities. Knowledge is conceptualized as a function of the amount of information spent both on the online network and on conventional sources. Since consumer information searches may differ according to demographic differences, this may result in consumers’ differences in their usage of online networks and conventional sources. We include these externalities in our model to better understand consumer choice behavior for the online network. The consumer utility function is estimated by using the model estimation method developed in this article, since the interactions implied by the consumer utility function are more complex than one could hope to estimate econometrically. We use survey data to regress the demand for online information depending on income, education, the number of users, and remaining capacity. We introduce a methodology to simulate how consumers’ representative utilities will behave in different network environments and derive implications for online network suppliers.     

Goodwill and dynamic advertising strategies

In this paper, we empirically analyze weekly advertising policies of manufacturing firms in consumer goods markets. We assume firms engage in persuasive advertising, thus policies of firms affect the goodwill of a brand. We introduce a demand and a goodwill production function. A simple transformation of the demand function allows us to identify not only the demand parameters but also the parameters of the goodwill production function. We reconstruct the unobserved goodwill levels using these parameters and past advertising levels. We restrict our attention to Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) strategies which are functions of payoff relevant state variables. Without imposing further restrictions on the dynamic competitive environment, we investigate the relationship between observed advertising strategies—which are assumed to be MPE—and payoff relevant state variables by means of several reduced form specifications. The most important determinant of advertising intensity turns out to be goodwill. We demonstrate that controlling for an advertising campaign significantly improves the explanatory power of the model. JEL Classification L13 . C73 . M30 . M37 I would like to thank Volkswagen Stiftung for the generous financial support which made this research possible.     

When trade hurts: Consumption indivisibilities and labor market distortions

We present a simple model where complementarities between wages and demand due to factor market distortions can make a transition economy worse off from trade. Prior to trade, a virtuous circle prevails: high wages in industry support a high demand for indivisible industrial goods, which in turn supports high wages. However, factor market distortions in the transition economy create a comparative disadvantage in industry. Opening up to trade results in the import of indivisibles and a fall in manufacturing wages, breaking this virtuous circle. Consequently, trade liberalization without structural reform can have serious adverse effects in a transition economy.     

Consumer credit in an emerging economy: Demand,supply, and liquidity restrictions

Using a rich set of microdata from a credit union in Colombia, we estimate the factors behind the consumer credit demand and provide evidence of credit constraints from different perspectives including the lack of response of low-income customers to the interest rate. We also show the different ways in which the credit union implements additional rationing such as denying and trimming down the credit requests. For this, the credit union uses the scores and indebtedness of individuals. Finally, we estimate the supply of consumer credit where the interest rate, income, scores, and indebtedness are fundamental.     

Food Retailing and Supply Chain Linkages in the Russian Federation

Abstract

This paper focuses on the evolution of Russian food retailing and linkages between and among firms in the food supply chain. Intermediation theory is used to develop a conceptual framework. Intermediaries have played an important role throughout the Russian food supply chain fulfilling the function of matching sellers and buyers. Tighter vertical linkages between firms in the Russian food industry are becoming more prevalent, and the roles of intermediaries may be performed by agents acting on behalf of a vertically integrated principal. The food retailing sector in the Russian Federation is evolving to be a source of information from the consumer to upstream firms.     

Involuntary layoffs and rigid wages

This paper develops a model of the firm to explain rigid wages and involuntary layoffs as aspects of rational behavior under uncertainty. Although the two are related, rigid wages do not cause involuntary layoffs. Both are likely when the employees of an enterprise are organized to bargain collectively. It is the ability of union to win high and stable wages for some members, together with constraints on the differences between wages and marginal products in the short run, that translates downswings in product demand into involuntary dismissals.     

Emigration and wages: The EU enlargement experiment

The enlargement of the European Union provides a unique opportunity to study the impact of the lifting of migration restrictions on the migrant sending countries. With EU enlargement in 2004, 1.2 million workers from Eastern Europe emigrated to the UK and Ireland. I use this emigration wave to show that emigration significantly changed the wage distribution in the sending country, in particular between young and old workers. Using a novel dataset from Lithuania, the UK and Ireland for the calibration of a structural model of labor demand, I find that over the period of five years emigration increased the wages of young workers by 6%, while it had no effect on the wages of old workers. Contrary to the immigration literature, there is no significant effect of emigration on the wage distribution between high-skilled and low-skilled workers.     

A model of demand,productivity and foreign location decision among Taiwanese firms

We develop a theoretical framework to examine the relative importance of firm demand and productivity in firm decisions to export and where to locate foreign direct investments. The model shows that the equilibrium firm decision depends on product technology, consumer preference for product quality, fixed investment costs of establishing a foreign subsidiary, transportation costs and relative wages. Our empirical results confirm the predictions of the theoretical model. Firm-level demand and productivity components are important in explaining the decision to participate in foreign markets with their relative importance depending on the firm's organizational form (exports versus FDI) and the destination of the investments. In general, FDI firms are more productive than exporting firms regardless of FDI destinations. FDI firms also have a higher demand component than exporters and this demand component is stronger than productivity. Finally, among FDI firms, while those with a high demand index and productivity have a significantly higher propensity to invest in high-income countries, firm productivity is the sole determinant of firms undertaking FDI in low-income countries.     

Income thresholds of dissaving in Germany: empirical evidence from the recent sample survey of income and expenditure (EVS 2008)

Saving of private households monotonically increases with income. If the regression lines, which represent the ‘demand for saving’, assume negative values, saving turns into dissaving, i.e. dissolving assets or going into debt. The zeros of the demand functions for saving are called ‘dissaving thresholds’. Dissaving thresholds for Germany are determined econometrically using the Sample Survey of Income and Expenditure. Dissaving thresholds turn out to be far higher than social assistance amounts. Implications for economic, social and consumer policy in Germany are discussed.     

Product quality and the direction of trade

A substantial amount of theoretical work predicts that quality plays an important role as a determinant of the global patterns of bilateral trade. This paper develops an empirical framework to estimate the empirical relevance of this prediction. In particular, it identifies the effect of quality operating on the demand side through the relationship between per capita income and aggregate demand for quality. The model yields predictions for bilateral flows at the sectoral level and is estimated using cross-sectional data for bilateral trade among 60 countries in 1995. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction: rich countries tend to import relatively more from countries that produce high-quality goods.     

Globalisation and union opposition to technological change

Trade unions have a rational incentive to oppose the adoption of labour-saving technology when labour demand is inelastic and unions care much for employment relative to wages. Trade liberalisation typically increases trade union technology opposition. These conclusions are reached in a model of unionised international duopoly with two-way trade. We also find that the incentive for technology opposition is stronger in the more technologically advanced country and in the country with the larger home market, complementing earlier explanations for technological catch-up and leapfrogging.     

Do consumers value price transparency?

We examine the role of price transparency in consumer preferences and demand. We assemble a detailed dataset on the driving school industry in Portugal to quantify how firms present the price of the course of instruction, and its individual components, to potential students. Our unique data allows us to estimate a structural model of school choice and measure the impact of varying levels of price information on demand. The results show that consumers are willing to pay a significant amount for price transparency, on average 11% of the service price, and that consumer demographics drive heterogeneous preferences for transparency.     

The Long-run Demand for Housing,the Housing Glut,and the Implications for the Financial Crisis

I estimate the long-run demand for housing to be, at most, 1.6 million units per year. This compares to housing starts of two million in 2004 and again in 2005. This overbuilding is the primary cause of the current housing glut, which I estimate to be between 1.24 and 1.72 million units. It will thus take several years for the excess vacant units to be fully absorbed. This housing glut needs to be quantified because it is the primary cause of the downward spiral in housing prices. I argue that overbuilding aggravates economic instability considerably. I suggest that Federal Reserve forecasters develop estimates of the long-run demand for housing, and that these be considered in implementing monetary policy.     

Implications of parent brand inertia for multiproduct pricing

This paper explores and quantifies the importance of parent brand state dependence to forward looking pricing outcomes in the area of umbrella branding and multi-product firms. We show through numerical simulations that loyalty (inertia) to the parent brand can decrease prices and reduce profits, as well as mitigate or even reverse the benefits of joint profit maximization relative to sub-brand profit maximization. These effects are mediated by brand asymmetries and the relative magnitude of sub-brand state dependence effects. Empirically, we focus on the Yogurt category, where we consider parent brands with several sub-brands. Using household level scanner data, we estimate the parameters that characterize consumer demand while flexibly accounting for consumer heterogeneity. We also estimate unobserved product costs based on a forward looking price setting game. Through counterfactual analysis, we study the overall effect of parent brand state dependence on prices and profits, as well as the empirical impact of joint profit maximization and changes in firms’ beliefs regarding consumer inertia. Our findings have implications for markets where demand is likely characterized by parent brand dynamics.     

中国城乡居民消费持续低迷的心理因素分析

消费心理是消费需求的具体表现 ,又是消费行为的内在因素 ,同时居民消费行为将对经济运行产生一定的影响。城乡居民消费持续低迷固然是由多方面的原因造成的 ,其中心理因素发挥着重要的不容忽视的作用。了解、分析消费者心理 ,对正确地引导居民消费是十分必要的。     

The Consumer Costs of Food Certification: A Pilot Study and Research Opportunities

Certification labels have become a ubiquitous feature on food products across grocery store shelves. Although it is widely acknowledged that certified products often garner higher prices than their noncertified competition, less is known regarding what those price differences are based on, and what the personal, political, or ethical implications are for consumers. This research note argues for greater attention to the implications of certified food prices—which we conceptualize as the “consumer costs” of food certification. The paper discusses the theoretical linkages between food certifications and prices, and outlines the resulting consumer costs of which we are concerned. Through a pilot study in Salt Lake City, Utah, we investigate prices found on certified grocery store rice, and consider the causes and implications of the consumer costs of food certification.     

An empirical assessment of the welfare effects of reciprocal dumping

Can two-way trade in similar products lead to lower welfare than if such trade was banned? Theory answers yes. To empirically investigate this proposition we examine Swedish imports of bottled water. Assuming one-shot (Bertrand and Cournot) competition, we can use the estimates from a structural model of demand to uncover marginal costs. We simulate the effect on consumer and producer surplus of banning imports. We do not find convincing evidence that banning imports would increase overall welfare. Given our choice of market this suggests we should not be overly concerned with the welfare effects of two-way trade in consumer goods that are close to homogenous.