Asymmetric effects of cultural institutes on trade and foreign direct investment

The purpose of a cultural institute is to improve international relations with other countries by promoting language familiarity and cultural awareness. In addition, cultural institutes can provide additional business opportunities that lead to positive economic side effects such as increases in trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). In this study, gravity models were used to analyse the data for the Goethe Institut (Germany), the Cervantes Institute (Spain) and the Confucius Institute (China) to identify any stylised international patterns of the documented economic effects. The study finds significant positive effects on bilateral trade and FDI outflows for all three programmes, along with two important (i) the effects are stronger for non‐advanced economies and (ii) the effects are substantially larger on FDI than on trade. These results suggest that cultural institutes can be an effective policy tool in promoting FDI outflows, with the strongest effect realised when a home country locates its cultural institutes in host countries with developing economies. Importantly, results also suggest that the Chinese government's approach to extend its soft power through rapid expansion of Confucius Institutes worldwide has not been as successful as the efforts by the German Goethe Institut in increasing trade and FDI.     

所有权原则、FDI利得与中美贸易差额

在发达国家大量通过FDI参与国际商业活动的背景下,基于所有权原则的贸易收支统计能够捕捉FDI对贸易收支的影响,从而反映出各国参与国际商业活动的实际利得。根据测算,美国自2000年以来外国直接投资净收益约占其贸易赤字的25%~30%。同时基于所有权统计原则调整后发现,中美贸易顺差根源于FDI,这与现有有关中美贸易不平衡的研究结论大相径庭。     

The indirect effects of foreign direct investment on trade: A network perspective

The relationship between international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the main features of globalisation. In this paper, we investigate the effects of FDI on trade from a network perspective, since FDI takes not only direct but also indirect channels from origin to destination countries because of firms’ incentive to reduce tax burden, to minimise coordination costs and to break barriers to market entry. We use a unique data set of international corporate control as a measure of stock FDI to construct a corporate control network (CCN), where the nodes are the countries and the edges are the corporate control relationships. Network measures, as the shortest path length and the communicability, are then computed on the CCN to capture the indirect channel of FDI. Empirically, we find that corporate control has a positive effect on trade both directly and indirectly. The result is robust with different specifications and estimation strategies. Hence, our paper provides strong empirical evidence of the indirect effects of FDI on trade. Moreover, we identify a number of interplaying factors such as regional trade agreements and the region of Asia. We also find that the indirect effects are more pronounced for the manufacturing sector than for primary sectors such as oil extraction and agriculture.     

The trade comovement puzzle and the margins of international trade

Countries that trade more with each other tend to have more strongly correlated business cycles. Yet, traditional international business cycle models predict a much weaker link between trade and business cycle comovement. We propose that fluctuations in the number of varieties embedded in trade flows may drive the observed comovement by increasing the correlation among trading partners' aggregate productivity. Our hypothesis is that business cycles should be more strongly correlated between countries that trade a wider variety of goods. We find empirical support for this hypothesis. After decomposing trade into its extensive and intensive margins, we find that the extensive margin explains most of the trade–productivity and trade–output comovement. This result is striking because the extensive margin accounts for only a fourth of the variability in total trade. We then develop a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous entry, and fixed export costs, in which the aggregate productivity correlation increases with trade in varieties. A numerical exercise shows that our proposed mechanism increases business cycle synchronization compared with the levels predicted by traditional models.     

国际贸易成本、制度环境与 FDI 区位分布--来自120个城市的经验证据

本文使用世界银行的城市数据定量比较了国际贸易成本与产权保护水平、契约执行效率和政府干预程度等制度环境对FDI区位分布的影响。研究发现,外企高度依赖国际市场,国际贸易成本显著影响了FDI区位分布;融资的便利和母国政府的支持,推行纵向一体化导致其产业链有闭合趋势等因素,使外企对当地制度环境并不敏感。本文分析表明有必要进行全国性运输改革,以提升中西部内陆地区对FDI的吸引力。     

When does FDI matter? The roles of local institutions and ethnic origins of FDI

How foreign direct investment (FDI) affects a host environment is a much discussed yet less understood topic of salience for international business managers, policy makers and researchers. Using panel data from 287 Chinese cities over the period 1999–2005, our study assesses (1) the multiple impacts of FDI in both positive and negative domains, (2) the role of local institutional development in moderating these impacts, and (3) whether the moderating effects of institutions differ depending upon the origins of the incoming investment (ethnic- versus non-ethnic-linked). Our analysis shows that indeed, FDI is a double-edged sword: it enhances the host city's economic growth, labor productivity and innovation but it also causes employment reduction and pollution in host cities. Moreover, the host city's institutional development is found to enhance the positive impacts of FDI and reduce its negative ones. Interestingly, the moderating effect is smaller for ethnic-linked FDI than for non-ethnic-linked FDI. As the first comprehensive attempt to unravel the role of institutional development in moderating the ambiguous impacts of FDI in multiple domains, this study confirms that a host's ability to absorb the benefits of FDI while curtailing its associated costs is both plausible and pivotal. As our world becomes flatter and FDI more entrenched in a host's economic and social development, this study provides important implications.     

Reverse importing and asymmetric trade and FDI: a networks explanation

This paper considers the impact of business and social networks on international trade and FDI. I propose that differences in the strength of network effects across countries can produce asymmetric trade and investment flows that may lead to trade friction. A firm from a country with strong network effects has a cost advantage in selling to buyers from its own country. This advantage results in lower inward FDI, lower total imports but larger volumes of reverse imports into the country with strong network effects. The model’s predictions match observed asymmetric trade and investment flows that sometimes lead to US-Japan trade friction.     

Can the standard international business cycle model explain the relation between trade and comovement?

Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle framework can replicate this intuitive result. We employ a three-country model with transportation costs. We simulate the effects of increased goods market integration under two asset market structures, complete markets and international financial autarky. Our main finding is that under both asset market structures the model can generate stronger correlations for pairs of countries that trade more, but the increased correlation falls far short of the empirical findings. Even when we control for the fact that most country-pairs are small with respect to the rest-of-the-world, the model continues to fall short. We also conduct additional simulations that allow for increased trade with the third country or increased TFP shock comovement to affect the country-pair's business cycle comovement. These simulations are helpful in highlighting channels that could narrow the gap between the empirical findings and the predictions of the model.     

中间产品贸易、垂直专业化生产与FDI的关系:基于我国数据的协整分析

在产品内国际分工的条件下,中间产品贸易在全部贸易中的比重日益提高,尤其我国工业行业的中间产品贸易更是发展迅速。基于中间产品贸易,国际生产体系的新格局导致了生产向垂直专业化方向发展,依据Hummels等(2001)对垂直专业化比率的计算方法,测算到工业行业出口贸易的垂直专业化程度。本文检验了外国直接投资与垂直专业化生产和中间产品贸易之间的关系,得出外国直接投资分别与垂直专业化生产和中间产品贸易具有单向的因果关系,并且三者之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系。     

Modes of Foreign Direct Investment and Patterns of Trade: An Alternative Empirical Approach

Modes of FDI can be clarified by analysing the changing patterns of trade among host, home and third countries. However, most empirical experiments of foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants have been confined to general characteristics of host countries and multinational enterprises' outward investment activities. This may not clearly characterise the specific characteristics of inward FDI in regard to the host country. Thus, we introduce an alternative approach to clarify modes of FDI by investigating the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI. To empirically test whether our approach is applicable, we choose China during the period 1998–2007. We construct a modified gravity equation of bilateral trade while considering spatially lagged interdependence between host, home and third countries. The problem of endogeneity is controlled by applying the system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimation technique. Our findings are consistent with results in existing studies on modes of outward FDI to China and prove that our approach in dealing with the link between patterns of trade and inward FDI has wide applicability to all modes of FDI. We discover there is strong evidence for statistically significant complementarity between bilateral trade and inward FDI within the aggregate trade data. As we decompose the aggregate trade data into final and intermediate goods, we find the motivation concerning export‐platform and complex vertical FDI is very significant. In addition, as we separate the bilateral partners into developing partners and developed partners, we find both bilateral and multilateral linkages are much stronger with developing partners.     

International Success of Business Groups as an Indicator of National Competitiveness

Abstract

Business groups are the dominant form of large private enterprise throughout Latin America. However, relatively little academic research has attempted to identify the dominant characteristics of these groups and even fewer formal studies have examined how these groups are fairing in today's age of increased competition and globalization. While there are numerous characteristics of business groups that are worthy of examination, in this paper we focus on their foreign direct investment (FDI) activities. In order to better understand the potential strengths and weaknesses of Mexican multinationals, we draw upon Dunning's eclectic paradigm of international production and the literature examining developing country multinationals. While this body of knowledge provides a useful theoretical lens, the current FDI activity of Mexican business groups is somewhat at odds with the existing literature.     

Trade in Services and TFP: The Role of Regulation

What determines total factor productivity (TFP) growth in services: is it services trade or services–trade regulation? To respond to this question, we use four indicators of international trade in services since 1990 to 2005, namely foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stock, services imports, domestic sales of foreign affiliates (FATS) and FDI inflows, to examine what type of services trade forms a direct determinant. Subsequently, we analyse what type of sector‐specific regulation has played an inhibiting effect on services TFP growth. Such analysis contrasts with former studies in which mainly factor inputs and economy‐wide regulation are used to explain services TFP. This paper provides evidence that neither trade nor entry barriers are robust determinants to explain cross‐country differences. Instead, regulations on operational procedures affecting the variables costs structure of the firm seem to play a more important role in explaining TFP growth between countries, particularly in combination with information and communication technology (ICT) capital.     

AN ECONOMIC RATIONALE FOR COUNTERTRADE: Liquidity Constraints

Countertrade is a generic term for parallel business transactions linking sales contracts with agreements to purchase goods or services. Countertrade has been viewed as an inefficient way of doing business primarily because of problems associated with such things as quality variations and increases in transaction costs. A review of the international trade literature suggests that market imperfections (shortage of convertible currency, information asymmetry that may create the so-called lemon problem and moral hazard) may provide motivations for countertrade. This article focuses on one motivation: liquidity constraint. The liquidity constraint is introduced in both goods and the factor markets in addition to the production constraint. The article compares and contrasts two strategies facing the management team of a profit-maximizing firm. The model developed shows that countertrade strategy could be superior to standard money-mediated trade strategy when the liquidity constraint is binding. Therefore, countertrade appears to be a rational response to conditions that restrict standard trade. As such, countertrade can supplement standard money-mediated trade and contribute to the growth of international business.     

外商直接投资与对外贸易技术溢出效应比较——基于面板因果关系的研究

开放经济中,最主要的国际经济关系是国际投资和国际贸易,二者都对东道国的产业有技术上的影响。文章运用面板单位根检验、协整检验以及误差修正模型等现代计量经济学方法,考察外资和进出口对中国整体技术水平的影响。结果显示FDI和技术进步互为长期和短期因果关系,对外贸易是技术进步的长期和短期原因,没有证据显示外商直接投资和进出口有长期稳定关系。     

略论跨文化商务谈判差异及影响

在国际间商务交往活动日益频繁的今天,跨文化商务谈判中的文化差异和影响问题也日益凸显.为促进中国的跨文化商务谈判多获得成功,应注意跨文化商务谈判中的语言差异及其影响、思维差异及其影响、观念差异及其影响、谈判风格差异及其影响等问题,以在国际贸易中取得较大的主动权.     

进口贸易与外国直接投资的技术溢出效应——对中国各地区技术进步的实证研究

进口贸易和外国直接投资是国际技术溢出的两条主要渠道。本文在对CH模型进行改进的基础上,考察了进口贸易和外国直接投资的技术溢出效应,使用面板数据就国际技术溢出对我国东、中、西部技术进步的影响进行了实证检验。结果表明,进口和外资产生的技术溢出促进了各地区全要素生产率的提高,但其对技术进步的贡献度存在显著的地区差异。     

Place,space, and foreign direct investment into peripheral cities

Perspectives drawn from the economic geography literature are increasingly used to generate insights into locational issues in international business. In this paper, we seek to integrate these literatures further by investigating the locational determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) into peripheral cities within an emerging economy. Peripheral cities in emerging economies are attracting a growing proportion of global FDI flows, but the international business literature lacks a framework for understanding subnational determinants of FDI, particularly into non-core locations. We draw on the core-periphery model to build and test theory on how spatial interdependencies between subnational locations impact on the distribution of FDI inflows into a large and heterogeneous country China. Our results show that whilst peripheral cities tend to have a negative effect on FDI, this effect is positively moderated by proximity to core cities. The results highlight the importance of considering interactions between place and space when investigating locational issues in international business.     

外国直接投资与我国对外贸易失衡

我国与美国、欧盟的贸易顺差增大,外汇储备激增,原因错综复杂,其中,在我国改革开放和特殊的工业化进程中,经济全球化和国际分工加速发展,世界产业结构大调整,外国直接投资持续增加才是根本原因。由于外国直接投资对我国贸易顺差存在着两种效应:直接效应和间接影响,即外国直接投资对我国产生明显的贸易创造效应,同时又具有一定的贸易替代效应,间接增加了贸易顺差,从而加剧了我国的贸易失衡。本文运用协整检验,建立误差修正模型,验证了外国直接投资与我国贸易顺差存在长期均衡关系,即正相关关系。只有从生产领域和外商投资的角度入手才能从根本上缓解贸易顺差的扩大。     

我国对外直接投资与对外贸易间的动态关系:基于VAR模型的实证分析

本文根据我国1983-2007年的宏观经济数据,通过建立VAR模型实证分析了我国对外直接投资与对外贸易间的动态关系.研究发现,我国对外直接投资与进出口贸易之间存在着长期均衡关系,出口贸易与对外直接投资流量、存量具有单向的因果关系,进口贸易与对外直接投资流量不存在因果关系,我国出口贸易对FDI有长期显著的拉动作用,而FDI对进出口贸易的影响十分微弱.