我国潜在产出与产出缺口的估算分析

经济增长是关系到国计民生的问题,也是经济学家们研究的一个热点问题。潜在产出和产出缺口是经济学的重要概念,是分析宏观经济态势以相机抉择的重要参考工具之一。对我国潜在产出与产出缺口进行研究,分析了我国1978年至2009年潜在产出与产出缺口的情况,对产出缺口划分为七个时段,并给出具体的分析。     

基于中国实时数据的产出缺口估计及其修正——兼论中国产出缺口和通货膨胀之间的预测关系

基于1994Q1-2008Q4的数据并分别利用三次趋势和HP滤波两种模型方法估计中国的实时、准实时和最终产出缺口,分析显示,这一时期中国的产出缺口遭受了较大而且高度持续的修正,说明中国的实时产出缺口和基于事后修正数据估计的产出缺口有很大不同。进一步比较实时产出缺口和最终产出缺口与通货膨胀之间的菲利普斯曲线预测关系,发现实时产出缺口的通胀预测表现显著好于最终产出缺口。由于货币政策决策总发生在"实时",不能等待事后产出缺口等数据信息的修正,因此,区分实时数据和事后修正数据对经济分析和政策决策而言可能就十分重要。     

现代菲利普斯曲线在中国的实证分析

本文利用1985-2004年的CPI和GDP数据对中国现代菲利普斯曲线进行了检验和定量分析。检验发现,中国存在适应性通货膨胀,通货膨胀和通胀预期以及产出缺口之间存在显著的正相关关系,产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响更加显著。     

全球化对我国菲利普斯曲线影响的实证分析——基于中国1994～2015年数据

本文旨在研究我国菲利普斯曲线的扁平化趋势与全球化的关系,通过建立考虑国际产出缺口的菲利普斯模型,以中国加入世贸组织为界,对比加入WTO前后的菲利普斯曲线。然后基于我国2002年～2015年的数据,探讨对于我国来说,使用什么参数衡量全球化对菲利普斯曲线的影响更为符合实际。     

中美日三国潜在经济增长率的估计与比较

产出缺口、潜在经济增长率等变量是各国政府制定宏观经济政策的重要依据。本文运用HP滤波法估算了中国、美国、日本的潜在产出、产出缺口,并由此算出了三国的潜在经济增长率,发现中国的潜在产出低于美国和日本,但产出缺口波动幅度要小于两国,而且潜在增长率要高于美国和日本,说明中国经济还有很大的发展空间。     

关于江西省产出缺口的估算

潜在产出与产出缺口的估算在宏观经济研究中越来越受到重视,为宏观经济政策制定提供了重要依据。运用HP滤波法、生产函数法和卡尔曼滤波法估算了江西省1978年～2008年的潜在产出和产出缺口,结果表明,这一期间该省产出缺口表现为波动水平正负交替的古典周期情形,未来的宏观经济运行有过热的趋势。     

物价波动与产出缺口、货币政策关联影响效应研究——基于汇率传递视角的STR模型

本文以实际汇率为转换变量,构建了开放经济下物价波动平滑转换(STR)模型,考察了综合产出缺口指数、货币、国际利差及汇率波动对我国物价波动的多渠道传递和影响作用.本文主要结论是:首先,物价预期对当期物价的反应系数大小与实际有效汇率的变动方向相反,而产出缺口与物价波动的同向趋势会随实际有效汇率的上升而加强;其次,货币供应量增长率与物价波动的滞后变动具有时差同向关联,国际利差变动对物价波动的作用方向呈现非线性特征,但其资本引导效率的下降反映了国内利率工具应用策略的独立性困境;最后,实际汇率变动率主要通过资本渠道体现对物价波动的反向关联效应,利率和汇率的相互依托也发挥着重要作用.     

全球化背景下通胀动态机制的转变及对中国的启示

本文基于中国、美国、欧盟和日本四大经济体2000年到2010年的季度数据,将外部产出缺口纳入通胀动态机制研究中,运用动态面板数据方法对扩展的菲利普斯曲线进行了拟合。研究的结果表明,在全球化背景下,一个经济体的通胀动态变化明显受到外部产出缺口的影响。在"后危机时代",外部环境对于我国而言是挑战与机遇并存的。我国应该利用内外部通胀压力缓解的契机,通过灵活的政策操作对冲负面冲击,更好地兼顾保增长与抗通胀两大任务。     

民间金融与实体经济结合的有效性研究——基于我国26个省市的实证分析

文章探讨了我国民间金融与实体经济结合的有效性,以及民间融资规模对产出缺口的实际影响。从理论上构建了一个修正的总需求模型,同时基于我国26个省市的截面数据,通过面板广义矩估计分析得出我国民间融资规模的增长会导致产出增速加快。     

中央银行基准利率、公开市场操作与间接货币调控——对央票操作及其基准利率作用的实证分析

20世纪90年代以来,以短期利率为目标进行间接货币政策调控已经成为世界各主要中央银行货币政策操作的普遍模式。本文首先以美国为例,分析公开市场操作与中央银行利率调控的主要模式,并对我国10余年来、特别是2003年以来的公开市场操作情况进行概述,分析指出央票利率已初步具备了中央银行基准利率的特征。实证分析表明,央票利率与主要货币市场利率具有长期协整关系,并且是货币市场利率的格兰杰原因;央票利率与产出缺口和通胀缺口还具有显著的线性关系,说明我国可以通过引导利率进行间接货币政策调控。最后,分析当前我国公开市场操作和间接货币政策调控存在的问题,并提出相应的政策建议。     

How Has Globalisation Affected Inflation in China?

This paper investigates how globalisation has affected inflation in China. We estimated standard Phillips curve inflation equations and examined whether globalisation has affected the structure of inflation dynamics as captured by the Phillips curve. Empirical results suggest that the globalisation of the Chinese economy has changed the behaviour of inflation dynamics. In particular, the impact of domestic and global output gaps on domestic inflation in China has changed significantly since 1994. Before 1994, the domestic output gap was a major factor in driving domestic inflation. After 1994, however, the global output gap plays a significant and more important role in affecting domestic inflation. The finding implies that Chinese monetary authorities should specifically take into account the developments in global output in their monetary policymaking process.     

TFP change,output gap and inflation in the Russian Federation (1994–2006)

The present paper estimates Total Factor Productivity (TFP) change for the Russian economy in the time period 1994–2006. It also calculates potential output and output gap using a Cobb-Douglas (CD) production function and a Hodrick–Prescott filter, as well as the Non-Accelerating Wage Rate of Unemployment (NAWRU), and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Capacity Utilization (NAICU) concepts. The results show that despite the severe economic crisis TFP has contributed to strong economic growth in the country after 1998, while the output gap, although negative between 1999 and 2003, has recently become positive. The relationship between output gap and inflation is examined and the results suggest that there is a strong (causal) relationship between output gap and inflation in the Russian economy.     

The Interrelationship Between Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Prices-The Case of China

ABSTRACT

Prior studies of industrialized countries have found that a definite relationship exists between the stock market returns and macroeconomic variables such as inflation and real output. This paper investigates the effects of changes in the consumer price index on industrial production and stock market returns for China. Six different types of Chinese shares are examined for the period 1994–1998. The results show a very significant positive relationship between inflation and real output. A positive and significant association is found between stock returns and real output in current periods. Inflation seems to have no impact on Chinese real stock returns. These relationships all hold for “B” shares, “H” shares and red chips. China's “A” share returns seem not to be impacted by either changes in domestic inflation or real industrial production.     

浅析中国通货膨胀的主要成因及实证判定

本文研究了1992—2010年间我国通货膨胀的成因,并通过逻辑分析,构建通胀误差修正模型,凭借模型估计结果和Granger因果关系检验结果判断出四类因素对通胀的影响程度。     

我国股票资产价格与通货膨胀关系的研究

货币政策是否应该干预股票资产价格的波动,这是一个广受关注且富有争议的问题.这一问题的关键因素在于正确判断通货膨胀与股票资产价格的关联性.目前,股票收益率与通货膨胀之间存在四种相关关系,即正相关、负相关、不确定以及不相关.我国的资本市场成立较晚,研究股票收益率与通胀率之间关系的成果非常少.所以从我国沪深两市股指与通货膨胀走势、沪深两市股指波动区间、波动频率与通货膨胀间的关系,以及我国沪深两市股票市盈率与通货膨胀关系描述等三方面来揭示股票资产定价与通货膨胀间的关系,为全面认识我国证券市场与通胀间的关系提供实事依据.     

Monetary Dynamics of Inflation in China

This paper investigates both the short‐run and the long‐run relationships between monetary growth and inflation in China between 1980 and 2010. We construct multivariate dynamic models based on Friedman’s quantity theory of money (but permitting money to be endogenous) and Meltzer’s monetarist model. The empirical results provide robust evidence that there is a bilateral causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation as well as between monetary growth and output growth. An indirect and implicit causal relationship between monetary growth and inflation is found through the asset inflation channel. There are also long‐run equilibrium relationships between money stock, price index and other relevant variables. The present paper further provides a historical exploration of the mechanism of the monetary dynamics of inflation in China over the underlying period. We conclude that the monetary growth rule is likely to be the most promising policy orientation for China to manage its inflation.     

Monetary policy and welfare in a small open economy

This paper analyzes optimal monetary policy in a small open economy featuring monopolistic competition and nominal rigidities. It shows that the utility-based loss function for this economy can be written as a quadratic expression of domestic inflation, output gap and real exchange rate. The presence of an internal monopolistic distortion and a terms of trade externality drives optimal policy away from domestic inflation targeting and affects the optimal level of exchange rate volatility. When domestic and foreign goods are close substitutes for each other, the optimal policy rule implies lower real exchange rate volatility than a domestic inflation targeting regime. The reverse is true when the elasticity of substitution between goods is low.     

Level and growth policy rules and actual Fed policy since 1979

The good macroeconomic performance of the US economy since the early 1980s has sparked interest in determining how the Fed has conducted the monetary policy. One widely shared view is that actual policy has broadly been consistent empirically with Taylor-type policy rules in which the funds rate responds to actual or expected inflation and the level of the output gap. In particular, as shown in Mehra (2001), a policy rule in which the funds rate responds to expected inflation, the bond rate, and the level of the output gap predicts actual policy well. It is shown here that the growth version of this rule in which the funds rate responds to the growth rate of the output gap instead of its level predicts actual policy almost as well. Hence, uncertainty that exists in measuring the current level of the output gap may not have mattered much in the conduct of policy, in contrast to the view focused on level policy rules.     

The responses of U.S. multinational corporations to increased competition for international markets

Abstract

Extending the original Taylor rule and applying the VAR model, the author finds that the federal funds rate (FFR) responds positively to a shock to the output gap, the inflation gap, the long-term interest rate, or the lagged FFR, and it reacts negatively to a shock to the unemployment rate gap or the exchange rate. The response of FFR to stock prices is insignificant at the 5% level. The long-term rate can explain up to 41.3% or 46.1% of the variation in FFR, depending on the model considered. The exchange rate can explain up to 8.5% or 12.3% of the variance, depending on the model considered. The output gap can explain up to 26.6% of FFR variance. The unemployment rate gap can explain up to 26.8% of the variation in FFR. Because FFR responds to a shock to the output gap and the unemployment rate gap in a similar manner, both may be considered in conducting monetary policy. The more explanatory power of the long-term interest rate than the inflation gap may suggest that both need to be taken into consideration in the Taylor rule.