基于信用风险评估的商业银行中小企业贷款定价影响机制研究

本文结合我国中小企业特点以及商业银行风险管理的经验,提出了一个较为全面涵盖我国中小企业信用风险评估内容的度量模型,该模型由财务实力、管理实力、社会实力三个因子组成,然后基于该信用风险评估模型,探讨我国商业银行的贷款定价影响机制。研究发现,中小企业信用风险各因子对贷款定价均有显著的正向影响,即信用实力越强,贷款定价越优惠,同时,信用实力对缓释工具有显著的负向影响;另外,缓释工具对贷款定价也有显著的正向影响,是中小企业信用风险影响贷款定价的调节变量。最后基于研究成果对商业银行如何应用模型加强中小企业贷款管理提出了建议。     

我国商业银行贷款定价问题的探讨

在与美国比较的基础上,分析我国商业银行贷款资产的特征和银行经营中存在的问题;将客户盈利程度分析法与基于银行资产负债隐含期权的风险溢价测算方法相结合,提出了基于客户盈利程度分析的贷款风险定价方法,并通过实例对该方法进行了说明。     

我国商业银行住房抵押贷款信用风险预警系统研究

随着房地产市场不确定性逐步增加,商业银行原本安全性较高的住房抵押贷款的风险也在逐渐加大。信用风险成为了商业银行住房抵押贷款业务中的主要风险,而我国商业银行无法准确、及时地监控、量化及评估信用风险,使得住房抵押贷款业务存在较大的风险隐患。因此,本文借鉴国内外商业银行信贷风险防范的经验与成果,针对商业银行经营管理模式和经营环境,提出适应我国商业银行发展要求的住房抵押贷款信用风险预警体系。     

浅析我国商业银行个人住房贷款的违约风险

"后经济危机"时代,我国商业银行更加重视个人住房抵押贷款的违约风险防范。目前,个人住房贷款的潜在风险十分令人担忧,通过分析2011年11家银行房地产贷款情况、全国20个大中城市的个人住房贷款风险情况等相关数据,认为目前我国商业银行的审核评级制度不完善、购房的需求与购房贷款还贷能力之间不平衡、房价与住房抵押贷款人的收入之比超过被认定的控制范围及利率变动是造成商业银行个人住房抵押贷款违约风险居高不下的主要原因。建议严格审核个人住房贷款人的信用级别、提高我国个人住房抵押贷款风险管理的定量化分析水平及完善银行体系的内部控制。实现我国银行个人住房抵押贷款风险管理的定量化、科学化、标准化和制度化,保证商业银行信贷资产运作的安全性。     

我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款业务风险及解决对策

个人住房贷款抵押业务是我国商业银行众多贷款业务的较为主要的业务之一,并以安全稳定和利润率高著称。但商业银行在个人住房抵押贷款业务中也时常受到信用风险、利率风险、操作风险、法律制度风险和贷后管理风险等考验。本文在具体阐述我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款业务中所存在的风险后,有针对性地提出了相应的防范对策,希望能为完善我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款业务提供有价值的参考。     

个人住房抵押贷款违约风险分析与防范措施

随着我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款的快速增长,个人住房抵押贷款风险逐步显现,且有加速的迹象.其中个人住房抵押贷款违约风险是商业银行面临的最主要风险.     

我国个人住房抵押贷款利率风险分析

本文基于我国个人住房消费信贷市场发展历程及现状,对个人住房抵押贷款的利率风险进行分析。我国个人住房抵押贷款利率风险主要源于贷款机构集中在商业银行、贷款利率由央行制定、信息不对称程度高和个人住房抵押贷款二级市场极不发达等因素;风险表现在住房贷款利率优惠政策压缩利润空间、基差风险和重定价风险突出等方面。最后,基于以上分析提出了相应的政策建议。     

谈我国个人住房抵押贷款的风险与对策

近年来,个人住房抵押贷款已成为居民购房贷款的主要贷款方式。但由于我国房地产市场经济发展还不成熟,个人住房抵押贷款业务尚不完善,仍存在信用风险、抵押物风险、利率风险和国家政策风险等诸多风险。贷款银行在办理个人住房抵押贷款时需加快推进个人信用制度的建设,建立和完善个人住房抵押贷款担保、保险机制,加强利率风险监管,以有效防范个人住房抵押贷款风险,促进我国房地产市场的持续健康发展。     

我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险分析与防范

从介绍我国个人住房抵押贷款发展现状入手，分析商业银行个人住房抵押贷款存在的主管风险和客观风险，并提出几点相应的风险防范措施，以期对降低我国个人住房贷款风险和完善个人住房贷款业务有一定的促进意义。     

林权抵押贷款风险研究

林权抵押贷款是林权制度改革的产物,是对林业融资机制的创新,它的发展在对推动林权市场化建设、盘活现有森林资产价值、推动农村信贷、林业融资发展和完善等方面发挥重要作用的同时,林权抵押贷款也面临着其价值损失风险、抵押物处置风险和信用风险。可以通过建立林权保险机制分散价值损失风险。又可以通过健全贷款风险控制制度。加大政府贴息力度等措施来减少林权抵押贷款风险,力求将林权资产信贷业务的风险降到最低,促进林权资产抵押贷款的良性发展。     

Effect of climate-related risk on the costs of bank loans: Evidence from syndicated loan markets in emerging economies

Based on a novel dataset that combined syndicated loans originated in the emerging market economies with greenhouse gas emission intensity data of borrowers, this study examines whether and to what extent banks in these emerging markets have factored in climate transition risk in their lending decisions. On loan pricing, our results suggest that banks in these emerging markets have started to price-in climate transition risk for loans to emissions-intensive sector since the Paris Agreement. This could reflect their increased awareness of a climate-transition risk towards such firms. The extent of the transition risk premium is also found to be dependent on the environmental attitude of banks. Specifically, green banks are found to charge a higher loan spread than other banks, when lending to the same brown firm after the Paris Agreement. Apart from pricing a transition risk premium in the loan spread, we find evidence that banks may also consider imposing more stringent non-pricing contractual terms, such as shortening loan tenor and imposing collateral requirement, on brown firms especially when the associated credit risk impacts on these firms are more uncertain.     

SBA default rates : Selection bias and credit deterioration

This study estimates the effects of changes in the money and capital markets on small business loan failure rates. It develops a lagged model of the relationship between term structure and risk premium variables and the loan failure rates of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Bank credit availability to small firms is shown to be the key factor in relating changes in economic conditions to changes in the SBA loan failure rates. As bank credit availability changes over an economic cycle, there is a movement of the least risky small firms into and out of the population from which the SBA grants and guarantees loans.     

What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan

As is well documented, subprime mortgage markets carried significant default risk. This paper investigates the relationship between default risk premium, stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables during the financial crisis. Using iTraxx Japan Credit Default Swap (CDS) index spreads covering the period from March 2006 to November 2009, we employ a time-varying dynamic factor model with Markov regime switching to generate regime probabilities for default risk. We analyze the sensitivity of default risk premium changes to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables by using two-state Markov switching models: a crisis regime sparked by rising loan defaults in the sub-prime mortgage market, and a non-crisis regime. We found strong evidence that the relationship between default risk premium changes, stock market and macroeconomic variables is regime-dependent. Our results suggest that during periods of crisis, CDS indices behave as a higher-risk indicator and become more sensitive to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis in explaining the default risk premium. Understanding the determinants of default risk premium is important for financial analysts, economic policy makers and credit risk management.     

基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型

针对银行的信用风险和贷款的周期性等问题,建立一个基于信用风险修正的多阶段银行贷款组合优化决策模型,该模型在多阶段模型中考虑了信用风险修正问题,根据模型的特点给出了把Monte Carlo模拟的动态算法和差分进化的多阶段算法相结合的求解方法,前者求解银行各类贷款的期望收益率,后者求解每一阶段银行对各类贷款的最优投资比重。数值试验表明所建立的模型是合理的且符合商业银行的实际操作要求,给出的方法是有效的和可行的。     

Banking relationship and default priority in consumer credit: Evidence from Thai microdata

Banks play an important role in consumer credit, and when borrowers face a decision on whether to default on mortgage or non-mortgage loans first, banking relationship may matter. Our study provides first evidence into the interplay between banking relationship and consumer default priority via credit bureau data of 1 million individuals in Thailand. We find that same-bank borrowers are less likely to default on mortgage loans first, and borrowers with longer banking relationship and lower switching cost are more likely to default on mortgage loans first (which is welfare-improving). Our results suggest that banking relationship can lead to better outcomes for defaulting borrowers even when switching cost is high.     

Lending technologies,lending specialization,and minority access to small-business loans

We investigate minority access to small-business loans using a probit model of loan application denial that recognizes two loan types (line-of-credit loans and non-line-of-credit loans) made by two lender types (commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions). We estimate our model on data from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find evidence consistent with minority equal access to bank credit lines and nonbank non-line-of-credit loans in highly competitive loan markets; in less competitive markets we find evidence consistent with unequal access to these loans. We also find evidence consistent with unequal minority access to bank non-line-of-credit loans, regardless of loan market competitiveness. Our findings differ from previous research which treats small-business loans as a homogenous product and finds evidence consistent with unequal minority access to small-business loans generally. We argue that the existence of multiple small-business lending technologies and loan specialization by lenders account for our findings and demonstrate the need to treat small-business loans as a heterogeneous product when investigating equal access to small-business credit.     

Banking Reforms for the 21st Century: A Perfectly Stable Banking System Based on Financial Innovations*

Although bank loans themselves are somewhat illiquid because of private information, most of their cashflows are not. Recent financial innovations allow commercial loans to be liquefied via credit derivatives and actual and synthetic securitizations. The loan originating bank holds the remaining illiquid equity tranche containing the concentrated credit risk, private information rent and the ‘excess spread’ that incentivize the bank to continue to monitor and service the loans. Empirically, we find that the average size of the equity tranche is about 3% for the representative commercial loan portfolios in our sample. The liquefaction of bank loans makes possible a banking system that restricts the guaranteed accounts to be backed by 100% reserves and the non‐guaranteed deposits to be backed by liquid securitized loan tranches, while retaining the deposit‐lending synergy. Such a system is perfectly safe without deposit insurance and it renders banks bankruptcy‐remote without sacrificing a bank's traditional role as a financial intermediary.     

我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险分析——美国次贷危机对我国的启示

当中国的个人贷款发展如火如荼的时候,美国的次级债市场却危机四伏,并蔓延开来。观察美国次级贷款危机,对比一下中国的住房抵押贷款市场,有很多值得吸取的教训和值得借鉴的经验,加强对个人住房抵押贷款风险的防范十分必要。当前的主要任务是积累和完善数据资源,建立和提高个人住房抵押贷款风险管理的定量化分析技术水平,以便定量评估具有中国持征的个人住房抵押贷款的风险度。此外,还要强化对个人住房抵押贷款风险管理的政策支持,并将住房从完全市场化回归民生本质。     

Financial literacy and the cost of borrowing

This research investigates the relation between financial literacy and the cost of borrowing via credit cards and mortgage loans among US consumers. This is a departure from previous studies that have focused on levels of debt in relation to human capital, either financial knowledge or education. Data from the Consumer Finance Monthly (CFM) survey are used to specifically examine the effect of financial literacy on borrowing rates for credit cards and mortgages controlling for other human capital influences. The CFM is a national survey, rich in American consumer credit information, and includes a comprehensive instrument specifically designed to measure financial literacy. Results indicate that those who are financially literate are about twice as likely to have lower costs of borrowing for both credit cards and mortgage loans.     

中小企业融资中的自有资金信贷机制

银行贷款收益取决于贷款利率和贷款风险两个因素。在贷款利率受到管制时,理性的银行为了实现期望利润最大化,要求企业提供足够抵押来规避贷款风险。我国中小企业由于自身特征及所处信贷环境的原因,银行向其贷款风险大,且得不到足够抵押品,也没有第三方提供担保,这就导致中小企业贷款难现象。因此,我国商业银行应该灵活运用抵押、担保、关系贷款和自有资金多种手段,积极构建中小企业的多层次信贷机制体系。