The Interdependence of R&D Activity and Debt Financing of Young Firms

We investigate the interdependence of debt financing and R&D activities of young firms. Applying a bivariate Tobit model, we find that there is a positive interdependent relationship between the share of loan financing and R&D intensity. A higher share of loan financing allows for more R&D in young firms and, at the same time, a higher R&D intensity allows for a higher loan share. This result is mainly driven by start‐ups exhibiting high values of R&D intensity or leverage. Another remarkable result of our study is that the positive relationship between R&D and loan financing can only be detected if we consider that, first, the decisions on R&D and on loan financing are made simultaneously and, second, the decision on R&D impacts the decision on loan financing and vice versa.     

Currency risk and microcredit interest rates

Foreign currency debt provides additional access to capital and offers funds in favorable and flexible terms to microfinance institutions (MFIs). Yet, we find that the use of foreign currency debt, on average, leads to higher microcredit interest rates. We also find that MFIs operating in countries with pegged exchange rate regimes and profit MFIs are better able to mitigate foreign currency risk. The results of the paper suggest that local currency debt is a better option for MFIs if the goal is to provide microcredit at lower interest rates.     

Cost of capital and public loan guarantees to small firms

In this paper, we study the determinants of the spread charged by banks under a UK policy intervention scheme, aimed at supporting access to the credit market for small firms through guarantee backed loans. We exploit a unique dataset containing data on 29,266 guarantee backed loans under the UK SFLG scheme over the period 2000 to 2005. Results suggest that lower spreads are offered for loans of larger amounts and higher durations, for service firms, for larger firms, and for those located in the most advanced regions. Higher spreads are applied to high-tech manufacturing firms and to loans issued for working capital purposes. We also find that the presence of other extant debt is associated with a relatively higher spread and that this effect is especially significant for the subset of firms that have reached a maximum debt capacity based on collateralized assets. Further, we also find that the higher the incidence of the publicly guaranteed debt over the total amount of outstanding loans, the lower, on average, the spread. However, an increase in the guaranteed coverage leads to a contraction in the spread only for loans aimed at covering working capital needs rather than investments.     

The Effects of Ownership Structure on Corporate Financing Decisions: Evidence from Stock Market Liberalization

We analyze the impact of firm‐specific stock market liberalization events on the capital structure and debt maturity decisions of firms from emerging market economies. We differentiate between firms based on their ownership structures at the time of liberalization and analyze their post‐liberalization behavior regarding corporate financing decisions. Our empirical results show that single–class‐share firms (typically with stronger corporate governance and better information environments) respond differently to their dual–class‐share counterparts. Liberalization results in lower debt reliance for the former group while the latter lengthen the maturity of their debt portfolios. Jel Classification: F30; G15; G32.     

The Financial Structure of Private Held Belgian Firms

We examine the determinants of the debt-equity choice and the debt maturity choice for a sample of small, privately held firms in a creditor oriented environment. Our results, which are based on 4,706 firm-year observations for 1132 Belgian firms in the period 1996–2000, generally confirm the role of asymmetric information and agency costs of debt as major determinants of the financial structure of privately held firms. High growth firms and firms with less tangible assets have a lower debt ratio. We also find that more profitable firms have less debt. Firms tend to match the maturity of debt with the maturity of their assets. Growth options do not seem to influence debt maturity, which would suggest that the underinvestment problem is resolved by lowering leverage and by bank monitoring, not by reducing debt maturity. Credit risk is also an important determinant of debt maturity: firms with higher credit risk borrow more on the short term. Finally, in contrast to most studies on the financial structure of companies, we find that larger firms tend to have a higher debt ratio and a shorter debt maturity.      

Local currency systemic risk

Emerging country governments increasingly issue local currency denominated bonds and foreign investors have been increasing their holdings of these assets. By issuing debt denominated in local currency, emerging country governments eliminate exchange rate risk. The growing stock of local currency government debt in the financial portfolios of foreign investors increases their diversification and exposure to fast growing economies. In this paper, we highlight some of the risks associated to this recent trend. First, we adopt the CoV aR risk-measure to estimate the vulnerability of individual countries to systemic risk in the market for local currency government debt. Second, we show that our country-level estimates of vulnerability increase with the share of local currency debt held by foreign investors. A version of the old adage “When New York sneezes, London catches a cold,” used often to describe the relationship between the stock markets in these two cities, still applies between individual emerging countries and the aggregate market for local currency government debt.     

Credit cards,new technology and consumer debt*

There has been a rapid expansion in consumer indebtedness in the U.K. The amount of consumer debt has doubled in real terms during the last 10 years. The majority of consumers are able to cope with their debt repayments, but there are a significant number of credit casualties, often burdened with multiple debts. Credit cards have played a significant but not overwhelming part in this increase in debt. There are now 62 bank credit cards for every 100 adults in the U.K., a much higher incidence than in any other European country. Credit cards have been aggressively marketed and sold, and it is possible that they will now move downmarket, to consumers in lower income groups. This possibility highlights the need for a major consumer education campaign on the cost of credit. U.K. consumers' knowledge of and ability to compare credit interest rates is poor, especially among lower income consumers who are most at risk.     

中国上市公司债务期限结构及影响因素研究

债务期限结构是资本结构相关研究中的热点。在对债务期限实证研究回顾和对中国上市公司债务期限结构总体分析的基础上,采用混合回归、固定效应回归和随机效应回归模型,以2006年-2012年628家非金融上市公司组成的混和面板数据为样本（共4396个观察值）,选取资产期限、成长期权、公司规模、自由现金流量、实际税率、公司价值波动性和资本结构为解释变量,考察影响债务期限结构的因素。实证结果显示,资产期限、公司规模和杠杆率与债务期限呈显著正相关,自由现金流量与债务期限呈显著负相关,但成长期权、实际税率和公司价值波动性与债务期限结构的相关性不显著。而且,不同行业之间的债务期限结构存在显著差异。     

Is Productivity Growth Too Strong For Our Own Good?

Productivity growth and improvement in a nation's standard of living are widely thought to go hand in hand. During the past 15 years, however, the gap between productivity growth and growth of living standards has widened, igniting a debate about whether a larger share of the benefits from productivity gains has gone to capital rather than labor. The first phase of our study characterizes U.S. productivity growth for the period 1948–2011. Our statistical analysis found that productivity growth did not follow one particular pattern over time, and we therefore doubt that it would follow one pattern (either a higher or lower growth rate) in the near future. Our analysis concludes that the “productivity resurgence” era of 1996:Q1 to 2011:Q4 is associated with lower growth rates of real per capita income, employment, and consumer confidence relative to productivity. That may validate the “savage cost-cutting” and “polarization” hypotheses. The stable and higher growth rates of corporate profits and the S&P 500 index indicate that capital and higher skilled workers may have gained benefits from productivity growth over time. A simultaneous rise in food stamp recipients and income share of the top 0.01 percent during the post-mid-1990s era suggest that the distribution of the stronger productivity growth gains is asymmetric.     

Between debt and the devil: beyond the normalization delusion

Since 2008, we have found it incredibly difficult to achieve adequate nominal demand growth. I think a fundamental reason we found it so difficult focuses on debt overhangs, if we first allow private leverage to grow too high, we end up in a situation where the debt doesn’t go away, it just moves around the global economy. Total global debt to global GDP is now higher than it ever was before. When interest rates are already low, further reductions of interest rates have very little influence on investment and consumption. Ultra-loose monetary policy does produce increases in asset prices. But if that’s driving an increase in inequality on top of slow growth of real wages. There has been inadequate focus in economics on the different functions that credit creation plays within the economy. We have to think about control of the credit cycle as an end, per se. Our orthodoxy before the crisis was that private credit and money creation is just fine. We have to understand that both governments can fail and be dangerous, and that markets can fail and be dangerous.     

Family firms and debt: Risk aversion versus risk of losing control

This study examines the effect of family management, ownership, and control on capital structure for 523 Colombian firms between 1996 and 2006. The study finds that debt levels tend to be lower for younger firms when the founder or one of his heirs acts as manager, but trends higher as the firm ages. When family involvement derives from direct and indirect ownership, the family–debt relationship is positive, consistent with the idea that external supervision accompanies higher debt levels and reduces the risk of losing control. When families are present on the board of directors (but are not in management), debt levels tend to be lower, suggesting that family directors are more risk-averse. The results stress the tradeoff between two distinct motivations that determine the capital structure of family firms: risk aversion pushes firms toward lower debt levels, but the need to finance growth without losing control makes family firms to prefer higher debt levels.     

PUBLIC DEBT AS PRIVATE WEALTH: SOME EQUILIBRIUM CONSIDERATIONS

Government bonds are interest‐bearing assets. Increasing public debt increases wealth, income and consumption demand. The smaller government expenditure is, the larger consumption demand must be in equilibrium, and the larger must be public debt. Conversely, lower public debt implies higher government spending and taxation. Public debt plays, thus, an important role in establishing equilibrium. It distributes output between consumers and government. In case of insufficient demand, a larger public debt entails higher private consumption and less public spending. If upper bounds on public debt are introduced (as in the Maastricht treaty), such constraints place lower bounds on taxation and public spending and may rule out macroeconomic equilibrium. As an aside, a minor flaw in Domar's (American Economic Review, 34 (4), pp. 798–827) classical analysis is corrected.     

Debt as a source of financial stress in Australian households

This paper examines the role of demographic, socio‐economic and debt portfolio characteristics as contributors to financial stress in Australian households. The data are drawn from the most recent Household Expenditure Survey and relate to 3268 probability‐weighted households. Financial stress is defined, among other things, in terms of financial reasons for being unable to have a holiday, to have meals with family and friends, to engage in hobbies and other leisure activities, and general money management. Characteristics examined include family structure and composition, source and level of household income, age, gender and marital status, ethnic background, housing value, debt repayment of various types and credit card usage. Binary logit models are used to identify the source and magnitude of factors associated with financial stress. The evidence provided suggests that financial stress is higher in families with more children and those from ethnic minorities, especially when reliant on government pensions and benefits, and lower in families with higher disposable incomes and housing values. There is weak evidence that Australia's historically high levels of household debt cause financial stress.     

Socioeconomic descriptors of fatal crash rates in the Southeast USA

Over the past decades, the Southeast United States has been experiencing consistently higher fatality crash rates compared to other regions of the country. This region also has lower median household incomes, higher percentages of the population below poverty levels, higher percentage of the area classified as rural, and lower percentages of high school completion and university attainment. It is then possible to hypothesize that accident involvement could be affected by these types of socioeconomic characteristics. The objectives of this study were to identify potential socioeconomic factors that could correlate and contribute to the higher fatality crash rates in the Southeast. Driver and vehicle characteristics from the FARS database were related to socioeconomic and demographic Census variables. Crash rates were obtained using the quasi-induced exposure methodology for single- and multi-vehicle crashes. The results show that these socioeconomic characteristics have an impact on single-vehicle crashes but have no statistically significant impact on multi-vehicle crash rates.     

The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?

The stock of sovereign debt is typically measured at face value. Defined as the undiscounted sum of future principal repayments, face values are misleading when debts are issued with different contractual forms or maturities. In this paper, we construct alternative measures of the stock of external sovereign debt for 100 developing countries from 1979 through 2006 that correct for differences in contractual form and maturity. We show that our alternative measures: (1) paint a very different quantitative, and in some cases also qualitative, picture of the stock of developing country external sovereign debt; (2) often invert rankings of indebtedness across countries, which historically defined eligibility for debt forgiveness; (3) indicate that the empirical performance of the benchmark quantitative model of sovereign debt deteriorates by roughly 50% once model-consistent measures of debt are used; (4) show how the spread of aggregation clauses in debt contracts that award creditors voting power in proportion to the contractual face value may introduce inefficiencies into the process of restructuring sovereign debts; and (5) illustrate how countries have manipulated their debt issuance to meet fiscal targets written in terms of face values.     

Testing for Unit Roots in Market Shares*

A unique characteristic of marketing data sets is the logical consistency requirement in market share models that market shares are bounded by 0 and 1, and they sum to unity. To take account of this logical consistency requirement, we propose to test for unit roots in individual market share series within the context of a market share attraction (MCI) framework. Our paper offers new contributions in testing for unit roots in market shares. First, a novel feature of our paper is that we propose a new unit root testing methodology designed to deal with the logical consistency requirement in market share models within the context of a market share attraction (MCI) framework. A second novel component of our paper is that we demonstrate how one could use the Johansen (1995) test to identify unit roots. This is implemented using Eviews software. The Johansen test is a system-based test rather than a single equation test; it is more appropriate given the dependencies in the market share relationships. Finally, we demonstrate using simulations that our procedure works well and improves substantially on the univariate Dickey-Fuller procedure. Accordingly, our procedure leads to better unit root inference than the univariate Dickey-Fuller method; the latter is not that reliable when dealing with market shares. We conclude the paper with suggestions for future research.     

The signaling effects associated with convertible debt design

In this paper we investigate whether the terms used in the design of a convertible debt issue act as a signal of the issuing firm's future growth prospects. Our general premise is that convertible debt design terms are interrelated and arranged in a manner that signals asymmetric information to market participants. Empirical tests support our hypothesis, even after controlling for risk, firm size, time-to-maturity, and industry effects. Firms issuing convertible debt that arrange terms to take advantage of relatively better future growth prospects are found to have a relatively lower negative price reaction around the announcement of the offer.     

Did corporate governance safeguard investor interest in the global financial crisis? Evidence from Hong Kong SAR

The global financial crisis of 2008 aroused renewed interest in the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms to safeguard investor interests. In this paper, we measure the effects of the crisis from 2008 to 2009 on the share performance of 976 companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the Hong Kong SAR and examine the link between share performance and corporate governance mechanisms. Our results present evidence that firms with a higher proportion of independent directors and a greater concentration of ownership had lower share performance, but lower price volatility, during the global financial crisis. These results suggest that no single corporate governance mechanism is fit for all economic environments and time frames. To strengthen investors' confidence, companies should enhance the efficiency and adaptability of their governance mechanisms in turbulent times.     

The Choice between Bank Debt and Trace Credit in Business Start-ups

This paper investigates the choice between bank debt and trade credit in business start-ups. While trade credit is more expensive than bank debt, suppliers tend to follow a more lenient liquidation policy when client firms encounter financial distress. As a result, suppliers are more willing to renegotiate the outstanding debt or grant additional debt whereas banks are more likely to liquidate borrowers upon default. Given the risky nature of business start-ups, we argue that the entrepreneur’s choice of debt instruments reflects these differences in liquidation policy between lenders and is thus determined by the venture’s failure risk, the entrepreneur’s private control benefits that are lost upon liquidation and the liquidation value of firm assets. Using unique data on 325 first-time business start-ups, we find that firms in industries with high historical start-up failure rates and entrepreneurs who tend to highly value private benefits of control use less bank debt. These effects are especially prevalent in start-ups where assets have a high liquidation value and thus banks are more likely to liquidate the venture following default. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Credit card usage and consumer debt burden of households

The primary objectives of this study were to examine changes in credit card usage and the amount of debt between 1982 and 1986 and to identify factors influencing the amount of and changes in consumer debt held by households. Personal interviews were completed in 1982 and again in 1986 with the money managers of households in a small midwestern town in the U.S.A. The sample consisted of the 123 households that were represented both in the 1982 and 1986 surveys. Paired-samples t-tests were used to identify changes over time. Significant differences were found between 1982 and 1986 total household assets and total amount of debt. Regression analysis indicated that significant predictors of the amount of consumer debt burden were age, net income, total assets, and the degree to which managers felt comfortable with debt. Younger money managers were more likely to make larger monthly debt payments and have more consumer debt. Households with larger incomes and higher levels of assets also had higher total debt. Significant predictors of change in debt burden over the 4-year period were change in net income and total assets, with year-end savings being negatively correlated with consumer debt.