Trade and Innovation in Services: Evidence from a Developing Economy

Studies on innovation and international trade have traditionally focused on manufacturing because neither was seen as important for services. Moreover, the few existing studies on services focus only on industrial countries, even though in many developing countries services are already the largest sector in the economy and an important determinant of overall productivity growth. Using a recent firm‐level innovation survey for Chile to compare the manufacturing and ‘tradable’ services sector, this paper reveals some novel patterns. First, even though services firms have on average a much lower propensity to export than manufacturing firms, services exports are less dominated by large firms and tend to be more skill intensive than manufacturing exports. Second, services firms appear to be as innovative as – and in some cases more innovative than – manufacturing firms, in terms of both inputs and outputs of ‘technological’ innovative activity, even though services innovations more often take a ‘non‐technological’ form. Third, services exporters (like manufacturing exporters) tend to be significantly more innovative than non‐exporters, with a wider gap for innovations close to the global technological frontier. These findings suggest that the growing faith in services as a source of both trade and innovative dynamism may not be misplaced.     

GDP growth,terms-of-trade effects,and total factor productivity

The purpose of this paper is to assess the contribution of each one of the major factors explaining Australian nominal GDP growth: technological change, movements in the terms of trade, increases in the endowments of labour and capital, and changes in domestic output prices. We use an index number technique as well as an econometric approach. Moreover, we look at several methods to decompose total factor productivity growth into secular and unexpected components. All our empirical results have a tight theoretical foundation, being based on the GDP function approach to modelling the production sector of an open economy.     

NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.     

TIME‐CONSISTENT AND MARKET‐CONSISTENT EVALUATIONS

We consider evaluation methods for payoffs with an inherent financial risk as encountered for instance for portfolios held by pension funds and insurance companies. Pricing such payoffs in a way consistent to market prices typically involves combining actuarial techniques with methods from mathematical finance. We propose to extend standard actuarial principles by a new market‐consistent evaluation procedure which we call “two‐step market evaluation.” This procedure preserves the structure of standard evaluation techniques and has many other appealing properties. We give a complete axiomatic characterization for two‐step market evaluations. We show further that in a dynamic setting with continuous stock prices every evaluation which is time‐consistent and market‐consistent is a two‐step market evaluation. We also give characterization results and examples in terms of g‐expectations in a Brownian‐Poisson setting.     

Some implications of search and switching costs for the price dynamics of electronic markets

This article develops a model, based on switching costs and technological uncertainty, which explains some aspects of the price dynamics of e‐commerce. Switching costs and intertemporal cost correlation lock‐in consumers. Firms initially charge low prices to build a customer base. If firms fail to reduce costs, and reservation prices are low, firms exit the industry. Over time, prices increase if no exit occurs, and decrease if exit occurs. Prices may also decrease over time, if the proportion of low search cost consumers increases.     

Economic performance of Brazilian manufacturing firms: a counterfactual analysis of innovation impacts

This article assesses if innovators outperform non-innovators in Brazilian manufacturing during 1996–2002. To do so, we begin with a simple theoretical model and test the impacts of technological innovation (treatment) on innovating firms (treated) by employing propensity score matching techniques. Correcting for the survivorship bias in the period, it was verified that, on an average, the accomplishment of technological innovations produces positive and significant impacts on the employment, the net revenue, the labor productivity, the capital productivity, and market share of the firms. However, this result was not observed for the mark-up. Especially, the net revenue reflects more robustly the impacts of the innovations. Quantitatively speaking, innovating firms experienced a 10.8–12.5 percentage points (p.p. henceforth) higher growth on employment, a 18.1–21.7 p.p. higher growth on the net revenue, a 10.8–11.9 p.p. higher growth on labor productivity, a 11.8–12.0 p.p. higher growth on capital productivity, and a 19.9–24.3 p.p. higher growth on their market share, relative to the average of the non-innovating firms in the control group. It was also observed that the conjunction of product and process innovations, relative to other forms of innovation, presents the stronger impacts on the performance of Brazilian firms.     

How do Firms’ Outward FDI Strategies Relate to their Activity at Home? Empirical Evidence for the UK

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the structure of firms’ overseas FDI and the performance and organisation of their home‐country operations in both manufacturing and business services. It addresses two questions. First, does sorting into multinational status on the basis of productivity extend to the scale of overseas activity? Second, is there evidence that off‐shoring to low‐wage countries has asymmetric effects on high and low‐skill activities in the home economy? The paper considers heterogeneity in firms’ outward FDI strategies and in their behaviour at home, distinguishing between low‐skill and high‐skill‐intensive activities. I differentiate between firms that invest in relatively low‐wage economies and hence might be engaged in vertical FDI, and those that only invest in high‐wage economies. I find that firms that invest in low‐wage economies simultaneously invest in a large number of high‐wage economies, employing complex FDI strategies. I add to existing evidence by demonstrating that selection into multinational status on productivity extends beyond the decision of whether or not to engage in FDI, to the geographic scope of overseas operations. This is consistent with the highest productivity firms being best able to overcome large fixed costs of establishing multiple overseas facilities. I find evidence consistent with differential effects of vertical FDI on firms’ high and low‐skill manufacturing activity in the UK. Relocating low‐skill activity to relatively low‐wage economies could enable a firm to expand output, with potential positive effects on investment, employment and output in complementary (high‐skill) activities at home. For firms investing in relatively low‐wage economies, I find that labour in these countries may substitute for relatively low‐skilled labour in the UK. In high‐skill manufacturing industries I find that multinationals that invest in low‐wage economies are larger, more capital intensive and more intensive in their use of intermediate inputs than other UK‐owned firms.     

THE DOUBLE ROLE OF SKILLED LABOR,NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND WAGE INEQUALITY

We examine the relationship between the supply of skilled labor, technological change and relative wages. In accounting for the role of skilled labor in both production activities and productivity‐ enhancing ‘support’ activities we derive the following results. First, an increase in the supply of skilled labor raises the employment share of non‐production labor within firms, without lowering relative wages. Second, new technologies raise wage inequality only in so far as they give incentives to firms to reallocate skilled labor towards non‐production activities. In contrast, skill‐biased technological change of the sort usually considered in the literature does not affect wage inequality.     

Optimal Utilization of Capital and a Financial Sector in a Classical Gravitation Process

In a production price framework, a two‐sectoral gravitation process with cross‐over adjustments of prices and quantities is advanced. To overcome an inconsistency in the treatment of fixed capital in disequilibrium, the socio‐technological input coefficients are assumed to vary with the sectoral output–capital ratio, such that for each relative price there exists an optimal degree of capital utilization which maximizes the sectoral rate of profit. Production prices prevail if these maximizing rates of profit are equalized. In addition, a financial sector determining the rate of interest is incorporated into the model. The mathematical analysis establishes a broad scope for local stability of the long‐run equilibrium position once a condition applies that ensures stability of the output adjustments in the short period.     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

Technological Collaboration: Bridging the Innovation Gap between Small and Large Firms*

This paper analyzes how technological collaboration acts as an input to the innovation process and allows small and medium‐sized enterprises to bridge the innovation gap with their bigger counterparts. Based on a large longitudinal sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the results show that though technological collaboration is a useful mechanism for firms of all sizes to improve innovativeness, it is a critical factor for the smallest firms. The impact of this collaboration varies depending on innovation output and type of partner. Specifically, the impact of collaboration in small and medium‐sized firms is more significant for product than process innovations. Regarding type of partner, vertical collaboration—with suppliers and clients—has the greatest impact on firm innovativeness, though this effect is clearer for medium‐sized enterprises than for the smallest firms.     

Endogenous firm heterogeneity and the dynamics of trade liberalization

In this paper, we build a dynamic model with endogenous firm-level productivity that involves ex ante identical firms behaving differently in equilibrium. Heterogeneity arises in equilibrium as firms choose different dates to adopt a new technology. We investigate the effects of international trade on technological diffusion and show that trade has a generally positive impact on the equilibrium rate of adoption (and hence on firm-level productivity). In addition, the model can replicate the stylized fact that exporters are larger and more productive than non-exporters. Finally, we show how our model can be used to interpret the emerging empirical evidence on the firm-level productivity effects of CUSFTA.     

Efficiency and Ownership Structure: The Case of Poland

We examine the effects of foreign entry on productive efficiency during the Polish investment liberalisation. The performance of foreign acquisitions is compared to foreign firms entering the market through greenfield entry, as well as domestic acquisitions of privatised firms, domestic greenfields and remaining state‐owned (non‐privatised) firms during the period 1995–2000. We find that foreign privatised firms have realised larger productivity gains than all types of domestic firms and that this is not due to higher price‐cost margins, which is consistent with the idea that foreign firms bring in firm‐specific knowledge. Foreign greenfields have the highest average labour productivity, while foreign privatisations show the largest productivity increase.     

Twin dollarization and exchange rate policy

This paper develops a small open economy general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities to study twin dollarization in East Asian economies, a phenomenon where firms borrow in US dollars and also set export prices in US dollars. In this model, we endogenize both the currency of liability denomination and the currency of export pricing. We show that a key factor that affects firms' dollarization decisions is exchange rate policy. Twin dollarization is an optimal strategy for all firms when exchange rate flexibility is limited, which implies that a fixed exchange rate regime may lead to an equilibrium with twin dollarization. Furthermore, we find that twin dollarization can reduce the welfare loss caused by the fixed exchange rate regime, as it helps to cushion the economy against domestic nominal risk.     

Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Taiwanese multinationals

This paper examines the extent to which production location decisions of Taiwanese multinationals reflect underlying patterns of firm productivity. In our theoretical model, heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal production locations for serving three geographically separate markets: domestic, foreign high-income and foreign low-income. The model shows that the equilibrium decision of a firm depends on the fixed investment costs of establishing foreign subsidiaries, production costs, transportation costs, market size and its own productivity level.Using firm-level data in 2000, Taiwanese electronics firms are divided into four different categories: non-FDI, investors in China only, investors in the U.S. only, investors in both China and the U.S. We use a multinomial logit model to link firms' location choices with their productivity, controlling for country, industry and other firm characteristics. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. We show that more productive firms engage in outward FDI, with the most productive ones investing in both China and the U.S. We also provide evidence indicating that Taiwanese multinationals investing only in the U.S. are more productive than those investing exclusively in China due to smaller fixed investment costs in China relative to the U.S.     

企业异质性、技术变迁与动态比较优势

运用中性技术和偏向性技术对比较优势进行理论拓展,异质性企业理论扩大了H-O模型的比较优势。与中性技术相比,偏向性技术具有扩大或缩小出口的作用;偏向于丰裕要素的技术进步有助于扩大出口;而偏向稀缺要素的技术进步不利于出口扩张。要素禀赋、企业异质性和偏向性技术进步使得一国出口产品具有锁定在密集使用丰裕要素的固化特征,难以实现比较优势的动态升级。这一结论不仅可以解释中国多年来未能实现出口产品的动态比较优势问题,也为进一步的经验验证提供理论支持。     

Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Taiwanese multinationals

This paper examines the extent to which production location decisions of Taiwanese multinationals reflect underlying patterns of firm productivity. In our theoretical model, heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal production locations for serving three geographically separate markets: domestic, foreign high-income and foreign low-income. The model shows that the equilibrium decision of a firm depends on the fixed investment costs of establishing foreign subsidiaries, production costs, transportation costs, market size and its own productivity level.

Using firm-level data in 2000, Taiwanese electronics firms are divided into four different categories: non-FDI, investors in China only, investors in the U.S. only, investors in both China and the U.S. We use a multinomial logit model to link firms' location choices with their productivity, controlling for country, industry and other firm characteristics. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. We show that more productive firms engage in outward FDI, with the most productive ones investing in both China and the U.S. We also provide evidence indicating that Taiwanese multinationals investing only in the U.S. are more productive than those investing exclusively in China due to smaller fixed investment costs in China relative to the U.S.     

Firm heterogeneity and location choice of Taiwanese multinationals

This paper examines the extent to which production location decisions of Taiwanese multinationals reflect underlying patterns of firm productivity. In our theoretical model, heterogeneous firms in a middle-income country decide on the optimal production locations for serving three geographically separate markets: domestic, foreign high-income and foreign low-income. The model shows that the equilibrium decision of a firm depends on the fixed investment costs of establishing foreign subsidiaries, production costs, transportation costs, market size and its own productivity level.Using firm-level data in 2000, Taiwanese electronics firms are divided into four different categories: non-FDI, investors in China only, investors in the U.S. only, investors in both China and the U.S. We use a multinomial logit model to link firms' location choices with their productivity, controlling for country, industry and other firm characteristics. Our empirical results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model. We show that more productive firms engage in outward FDI, with the most productive ones investing in both China and the U.S. We also provide evidence indicating that Taiwanese multinationals investing only in the U.S. are more productive than those investing exclusively in China due to smaller fixed investment costs in China relative to the U.S.     

Inventor Chief Executive Officers and Firm Innovation

Using a novel, manually collected dataset, we find that firms whose chief executive officer (CEO) is an inventor experience significantly better innovation outcomes, as measured by patents and future citations. We obtain these results in models with firm fixed effects, in difference‐in‐difference analysis of transitioning CEOs that controls for the CEO fixed effects, and among firms with founder CEOs. Firms led by an inventor CEO also exhibit greater tolerance for failure as indicated by a greater number of both highly cited and uncited patents, and engage more in explorative search strategies that exploit new technological trajectories. Stock market, however, seems unable to fully capture the positive impact of inventor CEOs on future innovation: firms whose CEO transitions to be an inventor experience positive abnormal stock returns, especially during the early years following the transition.     

Performance Effects of Technological Dynamism: Private vs. State Enterprises in Russia

How has the privatization-led economic transition transformed Russian firms? Prior to recent economic recession caused by Western sanctions, Russia’s economic performance has been impressive, yet little is known about its micro-level sources. Particularly, while macro-level data suggests a positive effect of privatization, such effect is seldom substantiated at firm-level in Russia. To take a step towards opening the black box, we investigated the performance effect of technology dynamism in Russian firms and the extent to which ownership mattered with regards to the technology dynamism-performance link. Our survey data shows that performance is driven by IT adoption, entrepreneurial orientation, and technological turbulence in Russian firms and that the positive effects of technological turbulence are stronger for private than for state-owned Russian firms. According to our results, Russian private enterprises appear more capable of buffering and gaining from technological turmoil, suggesting that the most significant outcome of organizational transformation in Russia is the firms enhanced capability in managing external environmental dynamism.