国际金融危机与“购买美国货”条款

美国爆发的金融危机给全球金融和经济贸易带来极大的影响,为此,各国纷纷出台应对当前金融危机、刺激经济复苏的政策和措施,美国更是如此。2009年2月17日,美国总统奥巴马签署了《2009年美国复兴与再投资法》,①使之正式成为法律生效,奥巴马"新政"由此也正式启航。然而,美国应对金融危机、刺激经济复苏方案出台前后,不仅在美国国内引起激烈争论,而且在全球范围内也引起轩然大波,矛盾的焦点主要集中在该法的"购买美国货"条款上。带有明显贸易保护主义的"购买美国货"条款出台,使世界上贸易保护主义进一步抬头和泛滥,各国在应对金融和经济危机的同时,不得不与贸易保护主义作斗争。     

Deutschlands Position in der Weltwirtschaft

In recent years, German exports have increased at a slower pace than before the global financial crisis. Moreover, the growth contribution of foreign trade was significantly smaller. This article examines how German exports have developed since the turn of the millennium, both globally and in specific regions, and relative to world trade. The results are threefold. A look at the most important trade partners reveals that, firstly, the European economies continue to absorb the largest part of German exports. Asia and the US follow as the largest sales markets outside Europe. Secondly, the German world market share is mainly driven by the development of Germany’s market position in the EU and the US; China and the remaining Asian countries play a subordinated role in this respect. Thirdly, a comparison between the growth rates of German exports and world trade is not always useful for statements about the change in the German global market share.     

German trade performance in times of slumping euro area markets

While the global financial crisis had a strong impact on economic activity in Germany, the impact of the euro area crisis on economic activity in Germany has so far been relatively mild. Trade flows by region reveal that German firms have recently redirected their exports towards the remaining growth spots of the world economy, in particular to Asia??s emerging economies. However, a continued crisis in the euro area is likely to put a considerable dent in German exports. While market forces have already triggered the rebalancing of intra-European trade flows, German exporters may play a helpful role in this process if firms in distressed countries circumvent high entry costs by integrating themselves into the global value chains of German exporters.     

Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View1

The international current account imbalances, where the United States has a vast deficit, and several countries, notably Japan, China, Germany and the oil exporters have corresponding surpluses, are usually seen as problems. The argument here is that current account imbalances simply indicate intertemporal trade – the exchange of goods and services for claims. There are likely to be gains from trade of that kind as from ordinary trade. What, then, are the problems? This paper considers five scenarios, notably one where net savings of the surplus countries decline so that the world real interest rate rises, and another where the US fiscal deficit is reduced, so that the world real interest rate falls and there could be a worldwide aggregate demand problem, essentially caused by the high net savings of the surplus countries. The paper reviews the reasons for the large surpluses in terms of savings and investment ratios (especially China) and also discusses the long‐term problem for the United States. While four of the scenarios involve a decline in the dollar, they do not necessarily imply a sudden – and even ‘disruptive’– dollar crisis.     

Leistungsbilanzungleichgewichte im Euroraum

The internal imbalances in the euro area are often cited as one of the main reasons for the crisis there. The surpluses, especially those of Germany, correspond to the deficits in the euro area problem countries — Greece, Italy, Ireland, Spain and Portugal. An analysis of the trade and services balances of the problem countries, however, shows that this was only true up to 2004. Since 2005 their deficits with the rest of the world have been bigger, especially with China. Now the imbalances with China, not Germany, are the main concern for euro area problem countries. The reasons for this development were the strong appreciation of the euro and the structure of the economies of the euro area problem countries, which brought them into direct competition with China. Revaluation of other currencies, especially the renminbi, would enable the euro area crisis countries to pursue growth-friendly fiscal consolidation in which stronger external demand replaces internal demand. This was how Germany consolidated its budget — lower fiscal deficits were compensated by external demand contributions. The problem countries could simultaneously shrink both their fiscal and external deficits. Internal devaluation through wage moderation, however, dampens domestic demand and is recessionary in the short term.     

Examining the global reach of the 2008 US economic downturn

This article analyzes how the 2008 US economic downturn propagated through the global trading system, creating an economic contagion around the world. Consistent with previous global crises, the reach and impact of this crisis is not the same across different regions. This article contributes to the literature by examining the effect of dependency on the country of origin of a crisis, openness to international trade, and the role a country plays in the global trading network to explain the variation in the reach and the impact across countries. The article concludes with policy recommendations to avoid future economic contagions or reduce their impact. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

人民币汇率与中美贸易收支结构研究

在国际金融危机的压力下,一些国家的贸易保护主义开始抬头,中国的对外贸易又成为众人关注的焦点。美国是中国的主要贸易伙伴国,中美贸易关系的发展不仅对各自的经济有极其重要的作用,而且对世界经济发展越来越具有影响力。关于人民币汇率与中美贸易失衡问题的研究表明,改善中美贸易收支的关键在于中国经济的持续增长。     

External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis

This paper provides a quantitative investigation of the East Asian crisis of 1997-1999. We stress two essential features of the crisis. First, the crisis was a regional phenomenon; the depth and severity of the crisis were exacerbated by a large decline in regional demand. Second, the predominance of the US dollar in the pricing of export goods in Asia (which we document empirically) led to a powerful internal propagation effect of the crisis within the region, contributing greatly to the decline in regional trade flows. We construct a multi-country macroeconomic model which contains these two features and show that it can do a good job in accounting for the response of the main macroeconomic aggregates in Korea, Malaysia and Thailand during the crisis. A key advantage of our model is that it can explain the very slow response of exports to the large real exchange rate depreciations that took place during the crisis. Without the regional dimension and dollar pricing of exports, we find that the model fails to account for the depth and severity of the crisis.     

趋自由贸易之利 避保护贸易之害

全球化是世界经济发展不可逆转的潮流,为贸易的自由化奠定了基础,有助于全球性市场的形成。贸易自由化是经济全球化最重要的表现之一,也正是自由贸易加速了经济全球化的进程。金融危机爆发以来,自由贸易受到冲击。世界各国经济走势低迷发展放缓。为摆脱经济困境,走出危机的阴影,个别国家采取贸易保护政策势所必然,最直接的体现是国际贸易领域的动荡和摩擦。我国应趋自由贸易之利,避贸易保护之害。     

外军舰载电子战装备现状及趋势

本文对舰载电子战装备（信号情报侦察，综合电子战装备）在美国，前苏联，英国，法国，德国等的现状及发展趋势作出概述。     

金融危机理论及危机拯救:一个比较分析

美国金融危机席卷全球,各国采取措施减少金融海啸的冲击。小国金融危机是大国与小国间的经济失衡及大国利用优势货币转嫁和分散风险的结果,具有外生性;大国金融危机是内部经济风险累积不可调和的产物,具有内生性。因而在拯救金融危机的策略上大国利用其国际货币地位和完善金融体系转嫁风险或分散危机;小国则要通过技术升级和产业结构调整才能摆脱金融危机及其冲击。     

The Stabilising Role of US Federal Fiscal Institutions — What Lessons for the Euro Area?

The classic argument for a euro area “fiscal capacity”, understood in this contribution as a centralised fiscal stabiliser, revolves around the need to dampen the effects of asymmetric shocks. According to those preaching this conventional wisdom, a common fiscal stabiliser designed along the lines of the US federal fiscal system would have stabilised incomes in member states hit the hardest, thereby avoiding the divergence that has unfolded in the aftermath of the financial crisis between the South, led by Italy and Greece, and the North, led by Germany and the Benelux countries.     

The global financial crisis: An analysis of the spillover effects on African stock markets

This paper examines the relative importance of the global and regional markets for financial markets in developing countries, particularly during the US financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. Specifically, we examine the way in which the degree of regional (seven African markets combined), global (China, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US), commodity (gold and petroleum), and nominal effective exchange rate (Euro and US dollar) spillovers to individual African countries evolved during the two crises through the econometric method introduced by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012). We find that African markets are most severely affected by spillovers from global markets and only modestly from commodity and currency markets. Conversely, regional spillovers within Africa are smaller than global ones, and hence, African markets are insulated from global crises. We also find that the aggregated spillover effects of European countries to the African markets exceeded the corresponding effects of the US, even in the wake of the US financial crisis.     

中国木材加工业国际竞争力的比较分析

基于1992-2012年的数据,以国际市场占有率和相对贸易指数为指标,对世界木材加工行业出口额排名前十的国家进行国际竞争力的比较分析,得出结论:中国木材加工业的竞争力呈小幅度波动增强态势(金融危机未产生不利影响),发达国家除德国、马来西亚、波兰、加拿大外均处于竞争劣势而且趋势在加强,虽然菲律宾木材加工业的国际市场占有率不敌中国,但追赶趋势非常明显,其崛起需引起木材加工行业的重视。     

Summer Davos： We Have Confidence in China＇s Economy

＂In the last Winter Davos, when it was the most pessimistic period for the economy in North America and West Europe, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao declared China＇s economic growth this year was targeted at 8 percent. That firm tone encouraged the whole world. And 8 months have been past, and we just see that China is exactly on the track to achieve this goal. We have confidence in China＇s economy. No doubtedly.＂ Jeremy Jurgens, Senior Director at the World Economic Forum and Head of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions and Community of Global Growth Companies expressed so in a World Economic Forum press conference in Beijing, September 3.     

CUSFTA effects: A joint consideration of trade and multinational activities

This paper estimates the effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (CUSFTA) on trade, sales of foreign affiliates of multinational enterprises, and total bilateral commerce (aggregate of both trade ands sales of foreign affiliates) in the manufacturing sector. The empirical investigation is carried out over a panel dataset covering the US bilateral transactions with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for the period 1983–1998. The empirical specification is guided by a gravity-based model that accounts for trade and the operation of foreign affiliates as alternative modes of accessing foreign markets. The results show that the CUSFTA induced an increase in inward and outward trade between the US and Canada, but also led to a significant reduction in sales of their foreign affiliates in the corresponding CUSFTA partner country. This outcome implies that the trade-generating effect of the CUSFTA is overstated.     

The financial crisis and trade—key impacts,interactions, and outcomes

The international financial crisis has been felt acutely in international trade. This article looks at the extent of the fall in trade and its impacts in major world exporters and sectors of industry. The article finds that the effects of the crisis have been far from homogeneous, with certain sectors more heavily impacted than others. In particular, electronics and transport equipment have seen large falls in trade, with base metals and machinery also strongly affected. Furthermore, certain countries have seen greater impacts than others. In particular, China saw relatively lower falls in trade than the other countries covered, contributing to an increase in the emerging world's share of global trade. Finally, the article looks at two key elements hypothesized as motors of the extensive trade fall—the fragmentation of production and the contraction in trade finance. It finds evidence that both were important to the impacts of the crisis on trade, although falls in GDP were the main driver. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

金融危机下如何应对和避免贸易保护主义

贸易保护主义由来已久,经济危机是贸易保护主义滋生的温床.这一科学论断在今天由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机的形势下再次得到了证明.金融危机蔓延全球,各国在自身利益的驱动下,纷纷实行各种形式的贸易保护主义,新一轮贸易保护主义再次抬头.在倡导贸易自由化的今天,贸易保护主义无论是对实行国家还是对受害国,都是有害无利的.针对贸易保护主义,我国一方面要坚决抵制贸易保护主义,另一方面企业和政府要积极回应,采取有力措施维护出口企业在国际市场中的贸易利益.     

金融风暴产生的影响及对策分析

美国次贷危机引发的世界金融危机使得所有以美元作为外汇储备的国家损失严重,这些国家无论出钱与否都是美国救市的买单者,面对此类危机,中国政府应该降低贸易顺差,减少美元外汇储备,促使出口贸易多元化,增加国内需求,稳定国内经济,以此减缓世界金融风暴的蔓延。     

On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. While large emerging countries recovered relatively quickly, their performance deteriorated in recent years, despite the modest recovery in advanced economies. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese economy. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented an abrupt decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource‐rich economies. Due to lower commodity demand, the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets in recent years. This view is supported by Bayesian structural VARs specified for the individual BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of the international economy on GDP growth. However, in contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in determining global trade and oil prices. Therefore, the Chinese economy exerts significant spillovers to the other countries under analysis. The change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure especially in countries with abundant natural resources.