现代货币主义理论及其影响

现代货币主义是当代西方经济学中最流行和最有影响的学派之一。在经济全球化、全球一体化的背景下,研究现代货币主义的理论及观点,深入分析现代货币数量论及其货币政策,从中发现,西方现代货币主义开始潜移默化地影响我国宏观调控手段,对我国货币政策既有影响,也有启示。我国应调整货币政策中介目标,实现有效的货币供给;转变货币政策调控方式,给予财政政策支持与配合;厘清货币供给与通货膨胀关系,实施稳健的货币政策,从而应对快速发展的经济形势。     

Milton Friedman: Nicht nur ein ?Monetarist“!

Milton Friedman was one of the most prominent advocates of free market economics. Of course, Friedman is popularly recognized for monetarism. His so-called money supply rule and his scepticism of public debt are being rediscussed seriously in the light of the present crises. But Friedman was more than a monetarist. His famous thesis ?The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits“ caused a heated debate that continues today. In a similar way Friedman initiated a controversial discussion by introducing an argument in support of unrealistic assumptions (in his essay ?The Methodology of Positive Economics“). Furthermore, his very clear and concrete proposals to promote a liberal society will be remembered long after his death.     

Is Kaldor's Theory of Money Supply Endogeneity Still Relevant?

Contemporary monetary theory is characterized by the predominance of the monetarist thesis. Paradoxically, the widespread acceptance of the monetarists' conclusions has coincided with the disappearance of the stable relation between money stock and nominal income from the 1980s onwards. These results did not call the monetarist theory into question, but instead stimulated the elaboration of various proposals for the modification of the monetary authorities' operative schemes. Each of these proposals gives rise to some perplexity. These anomalies provide the justification for this paper, which sets out to analyse the characteristics of the money supply endogeneity theory, a theoretical approach initiated in the 1970s thanks to Kaldor's seminal contribution, with the objective of demonstrating the inconsistencies in the monetarists' conclusions. It is intended to show that the debate on the endogeneity theory developed by the post‐Keynesians has overlooked an essential aspect of Kaldor's theory, the examination of which permits: (a) the elaboration of an important criticism of monetarism; and (b) the development of a theory of credit and of financial intermediaries that highlights elements of Keynes's theory that have been neglected by the traditional interpretation.     

Endogenous Money: What it is and Why it Matters

Endogenous money is widespread in economic theory. The post‐Keynesian contribution is identification of a causal link between bank lending and the money supply. Though driven by macroeconomic concerns, the post‐Keynesian debate has reduced to a microeconomic debate over the role of financial intermediaries in the accommodation process. In the IS–LM model endogenous money flattens the LM. This misses its substantive significance which is the discrediting of monetarist money supply policy rules and monetarist critiques of central banking, its identification of the key role of credit, and its provision of a credit‐driven theory of the business cycle.     

中国货币供给内生性与可控性的实证分析

从货币创造机制出发,利用协整和短期误差修正模型验证了我国货币供给存在内生性;利用各变量的贡献度对比分析,认为中央银行可以控制的因素对货币供给影响更大,验证了货币供给的可控性。     

地方政府财政支出对中国通货膨胀的冲击效应研究——基于凯恩斯 AD - AS 视角

基于国家干预的凯恩斯 AD - AS 视角,主要对财政货币政策与通货膨胀之间的关系进行研究,并采用 1952—2010 年中国宏观经济数据进行实证分析,结果表明: ( 1) 长期内,地方财政支出的扩张是导致通货膨胀的关键性因素; 而中央财政支出的扩张却有利于控制通货膨胀; 不同层次的货币供应量对通货膨胀的冲击则并不显著; 除此之外,通货膨胀还受到消费者预期、人民币汇率、职工工资水平和原材料购进价格的正向影响。(2) 短期内,无论是中央抑或是地方财政支出都能对通货膨胀产生负向的冲击作用; 然而,货币供应量( M0、M1、M2) 却对通货膨胀起到了明显的助推作用,且 M0与通货膨胀具有双向的 Granger 因果关系。( 3) 新时期,财政货币当局不仅需要高度关注高通胀惯性对政策效果的影响,尤其应注重财政货币政策的多重目标分解、梳理及协调配合,而且要处理好反通胀、保增长、调结构之间困难而复杂的关系,寻求三者之间的有效"平衡点"。     

THE ROLE OF LOGISTICS IN MARKET ORIENTATION

In today's increasingly competitive environment, survival depends on two key aspects of being market‐oriented ‐ understanding the external environment and executing decisions based on that understanding. Logistics personnel are uniquely positioned to play a key role in creating and maintaining a market‐oriented organization as they are progressively gaining more responsibilities in integrating cross‐functional processes and implementing supply chain strategies. This paper explores how logisticians participate in market orientation behaviors and how a market‐oriented logistics function impacts logistics and business performance. Based on a qualitative field research study involving in‐depth interviews with seventeen logistics personnel that draws and builds upon the logistics, market orientation, knowledge management, organizational behavior, information processing, and strategic management literatures, a theoretical model of logistics market orientation and its effect on logistics and business performance is developed and propositions are presented. Findings highlight logistics' central role in generating, disseminating, reaching a shared interpretation of, and responding to market intelligence.     

Modern Monetary Theory: The Right Compass for Decision-Making

In the November/December 2021 issue of Intereconomics, Françoise Drumetz and Christian Pfister examine Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and approach it from the policy consequences that would follow. This paper is a reply to Drumetz and Pfister. It restates the core of MMT and offers some suggestions for central banks. Theories are explanations of what we see, and MMT describes money creation and destruction. Hence, MMT cannot be and is not a political manifesto. In contrast to most other theories of money, MMT is falsifiable in its core statements, which are based on a balance sheet approach to macroeconomics. Since many central banks already educate the public about the creation of modern money through bank lending, it would be most welcome if they would do the same for the creation of modern money through government spending. Here, MMT and central bankers can find common ground to move forward and leave the theory of loanable funds and that of the money multiplier behind.

     

ASSET PRICE BUBBLES,LIQUIDITY PREFERENCE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

In his Treatise on Money, Keynes relied on two different themes to argue that the interest rate need not rise with rising levels of expenditure. One of these was the elasticity of the money supply, and the other was the interaction between financial and industrial circulation. A decrease (increase) in what Keynes called the bear position was similar in its impact to that of a policy‐induced increase (decrease) in the money supply. In the General Theory, this second line of argument lost much of its force as it became reformulated under the rubric of Keynes liquidity preference theory of interest. Assuming that the expected return on capital adjusts to the interest rate in short‐period equilibrium, Keynes ignored the effect of bull or bear sentiment in equity markets as a second‐order complication that can be ignored in analyzing the equilibrium level of investment and output. The objective of this paper is to go back to this old theme from the Treatise and underscore its importance for Keynesian theory of the business cycle.     

转型期货币渠道与信贷渠道有效性的实证研究

本文运用基于VAR模型的时间序列分析方法对我国转型期货币渠道与信贷渠道的有效性进行了实证研究。脉冲响应函数分析表明产出和通货膨胀对贷款冲击的响应比其对货币供给冲击的响应更为显著,预测方差的分解结果证实贷款对产出和通货膨胀的贡献率均远远大于货币供给量的贡献率,故转型期内信贷渠道相对于货币渠道更为有效。因此,为增强货币政策的有效性,中央银行应同时监控货币和信贷指标,货币政策操作也要以有效调节私人部门的信贷可得量为基础。     

ANFA – nationale Geldschöpfung als Sprengsatz für die Währungsunion?

The so called ANFA secret protocol brought to the public’s attention the previously only little noticed opportunity for national central banks of individual Eurozone members to create money through purchases of securities at their own expense. The ANFA financial assets amount to the significant share of 51% (gross) or rather 18% (net) of the Eurosystem’s balance sheet total and 41% of its total liquidity, thereby jeopardising the principle that the communities of the emitting and the money accepting countries should be congruent, which is seen as a stability condition for currency unions. There is a danger that the money creation via ANFA acts as an explosive device for the currency union. It is therefore necessary to clearly limit the own funds portfolio in order to restore the community of money emission.     

外汇储备的变化及其对物价指数的影响

本文主要介绍了我国近年来外汇储备变化以及货币供应量、物价水平变化的趋势和特点。从外汇储备规模上来看,可以将其发展划分为四个时期,分别是国家外汇库存与中国银行外汇结存并存期、国家外汇储备初具规模时期、外汇管理体制改革后的快速增长期、外汇储备进入超常增长时期。     

房地产价格与货币供应量的波动溢出效应

基于VAR模型和GARCH模型对中国房地产价格与货币供应量的波动溢出效应进行实证研究,发现货币供应量与房地产价格之间不存在显著的动态相关性,也不存在明显的波动溢出效应,中央银行没有必要用货币政策去直接调控房地产价格。     

货币供给冲击、货币需求冲击与中国宏观经济波动

基于由贝叶斯技术估计的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,识别和分析货币供给与货币需求冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动的影响,结果表明:货币供给冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动均能够产生同向影响,但对产出波动的影响不明显,仅能解释其不足2%的波动,而对通货膨胀波动的影响比较强,长期内可以解释其26%以上的波动;货币需求冲击对产出和通货膨胀波动的影响都不明显,长期内对二者波动的解释能力均低于0.6%。因此,在应对通胀压力时,央行可以运用数量型货币政策工具,对高通胀势头实施积极的紧缩性宏观调控。     

Supply chain management: an analytical framework for critical literature review

There can be little dispute that supply chain management is an area of importance in the field of management research, yet there have been few literature reviews on this topic (Bechtel and Mulumudi, 1996, Proceedings of the 1996 NAPM Annual Academic Conference; Harland, 1996, British Journal of Management 7 (special issue), 63–80; Cooper et al., 1997). This paper sets out not to review the supply chain literature per se, but rather to contribute to a critical theory debate through the presentation and use of a framework for the categorisation of literature linked to supply chain management. The study is based on the analysis of a large number of publications on supply chain management (books, journal articles, and conference papers) using a Procite^© database from which the literature has been classified according to two criteria: a content- and a methodology-oriented criterion.     

Corporate Governance and Sustainability Performance: Analysis of Triple Bottom Line Performance

Given the potential that environmentally oriented anti-consumption (EOA) has in achieving environmental sustainability, the authors draw upon marketing, management, environmental, and psychology studies to conceptualize and delimit EOA, differentiating it from other (related but distinct) phenomena. In addition, the authors review the available literature at the individual (micro) level and summarize research on the antecedents and meanings of broad and specific/strict EOA practices with different targets. Furthermore, the authors propose an agenda for future research, which reflects on EOA not only at the individual (micro) level, but also lays out new opportunities for EOA work at organizational (meso), industry, and national (macro) levels. The work presented here hopes to spark multilevel research on EOA, its antecedents and consequences, and reactions to EOA phenomena.     

Problems of measuring money supply in the Euro Area

With just a few weeks left to go before responsibility for monetary policy is transferred from the EMU member countries to the European Central Bank, there is still no standardised concept for measuring a euro area money supply which could serve as a statistical basis for a money-supply oriented monetary policy strategy. Which problems remain to be solved?     

Culture‐Led Discrepancies and Negotiating Conflicts in Strategic Outsourcing Alliances

Outsourcing and alliance collaboration have become prominent features of the global economy. Empirical studies demonstrate that outsourcing alliances are often not as successful as their initiators expect them to be. National cultural differences are frequently viewed as a crucial factor when such alliances fail. While empirical studies are abundant, theoretical frameworks that explicate the role of national cultural differences in shaping the dynamics of outsourcing alliances are rare. This article builds on Kumar and Nti's (1998) discrepancy model to specify how culture affects the dynamics of outsourcing alliances. We suggest that national cultural differences give rise to process and outcome discrepancies in outsourcing alliances. Notably, outsourcing alliances evolve through three stages–formation, operation and outcome–with discrepancies arising in each of these stages (Das & Teng, 2002). We develop a framework to link discrepancy management to these different stages, and to the notions of task‐oriented and relationship‐oriented cultures. Our study has a number of implications for future research and managerial practice. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Premium generic brand (PGB) choice vis-à-vis generic and national brands: A scenario comparison for self-use,family consumption and gift giving in a food versus non-food and cross-cultural context

PurposeThe study models factors affecting brand category choice for generic as well as national brands, and next contrasts them to a new brand category: premium generic brands (PGB). PGB are a new occurrence in brand and product management, and consumer reactions to PGB are not yet well understood.Design/methodology/approachThree purchase motivation scenarios were presented to 553 consumers to test for their purchase intentions for self-consumption, family use or gift giving. A quasi-experiment was chosen where respondents were exposed to store-like presentations of actual real life products and asked for their likelihood to choose the national or generic brand over the new PGB. The study applied multivariate testing such as MANOVA.FindingsSeparate models were developed for food and non-food choice through backward deletion regression analyses, and the most parsimonious models revealed strong similarities for self as well as family consumption choices, but distinct drivers for gifts. Value for money, image and satisfaction are key factors in brand choice overall, but for gifts, ‘image’ overpowers all other predictors.Originality/valueThe study identified the Chinese as a distinct consumer segment for brand choice since they are more open to potentially consider PGB as gifts, whereas Caucasians only buy national brands for gift giving.     

Financial attitudes,beliefs and behaviours: differences by age

One of the essential skills that people must acquire to function in our society is the ability to deal with money. This skill and the information necessary to use it are acquired mainly during childhood. There has been little research on when and how children acquire knowledge of money and the economic system in general or the degree to which family influence carries over into consumption activities as adults.¹ Little is known about how family financial decisions are made, what age people get involved with money, what kind of financial activities they partake in, which socialization agents have the most important influence on people's money beliefs, and how much and how families communicate about finances. The question of how these patterns have changed over the years also needs to be addressed. The focus of the marketing research has been on purchasing activity and on the socialization of the child. There has been much less work on socialization at later stages in the life cycle.² Reference to money personalities are frequently made in financial planning materials as useful information to effectively communicate with clients. No studies have explored if people in reality identify with any of the suggested money personalities. Similarly, little is known about buying behaviours and how they have changed over years.