金融市场中不同规模证券组合的风险特性分析

本文以CPAM为理论基础,研究大盘.中盘和小盘等不同规模证券组合在牛市和熊市中的风险特征。研究结果显示大盘股票指数组合的系统风险小于中小盘股票,大盘股票的收益率更稳定;中小盘股票指数组合的系统风险较高,但系统风险占总风险的比例较大盘股低。     

牛熊市下投资者情绪对股票收益影响的非对称性分析

选用沪深两市的六个代理变量以主成分分析构建了投资者情绪指数,实证研究了牛熊市下投资者情绪对股票收益的非对称性影响。研究表明,在牛市、熊市和震荡不同的市态下,投资者情绪是深市和沪市股票收益的系统性影响因子,且具有显著的非对称性影响。熊市中投资者情绪对沪深两市的股票收益的影响要大于牛市,因此投资者在不同阶段对股票的投资可以采用不同的投资策略。     

牛熊市时期我国股市股价联动效应分析

股票联动效应是证券市场上普遍存在的一种现象,它指的是不同资产回报率之间存在的同方向或反方向的运动。文章选择金融业和房地产业两个牛市及一个熊市时期的股票月收益率,建立CAPM模型,分析了我国股票市场金融业和房地产业各公司股价在牛熊市时的联动效应情况。结果表明,两个行业内各股在熊市时都有较高的联动性,且无论牛市还是熊市金融业内各股的联动程度均强于房地产业。     

大股东控制下的股权融资依赖与投资行为研究——基于行为财务视角

基于行为公司财务研究视角,文章首先阐释了股票误定价影响企业投资行为的机制.然后,结合我国上市公司大股东股权融资的利益侵占动机分析,对不同股权融资依赖程度的公司投资行为进行了实证研究.结果发现:在取得了股权融资的公司中,股票市价与企业投资水平显著正相关;股权融资的依赖程度越大,企业投资水平对股票市价的敏感性越高;大股东控制与股票市价的交互作用对公司投资规模的推动效果,显著高于单一的股票市价因素.文章结论的含义与启示在于:尽管股票定价偏差的非市场效率因素对公司投资行为具有独立的影响,但其影响程度因公司治理模式和所有权控制特征的不同而存在明显差异.     

做市服务的供求分析新框架及其对股票流动性的影响

本文在已有文献的基础上提出了一个做市服务市场的供求分析新框架,并依此分析和实证考察了公司特征和股票转让方式选择以及做市商数量之间的关系.研究发现,新三板挂牌公司的股票流动性越高、资产规模越大、流通在外的股份数越少、股价水平越高,越倾向于选择做市转让;资产规模越大、股价波动性越弱,做市商数量越多.这表明,挂牌公司股票转让方式的选择是供给面因素和需求面因素共同作用的结果.另外,本文结合已有理论和新三板市场的制度背景,分析和实证考察了股票转让方式选择对股票流动性的影响.研究发现,挂牌公司的股票转让方式由协议转让变更为做市转让能够显著提升股票流动性,这种情况在控制选择偏差的处理效应模型和控制其他因素的倍差法模型中也得到了相同的结论.本研究对于当前新三板市场交易机制的设计与变革具有重要的启示意义.     

林园炒股8大秘籍

<正>秘籍5:熊市策略与牛市策略大多数股民在熊市的时候,能不赔钱就已经算好的了,而林园在熊市的时候也能赚钱。林园认为牛市最大的风险就是赚不到钱。林园在实战中总结出了一套熊市和牛市     

我国股市非对称反应影响因素的实证分析

本文运用T-Garch-M模型对我国股票市场的特征风格指数和不同样本期的综合指数进行了实证分析,结果表明,市道(牛市或熊市)、市盈率高低、盈利状况(绩优或绩差)、股价高低和股票风格特征(价值股或成长股)等因素对我国股票市场信息非对称反应有显著影响,股票规模大小(盘子大小和市值大小)对非对称性反应的影响不显著。     

牛熊市里除权除息的差异收益率研究

在"牛市"和"熊市"里,除权除息事件能带来不同的收益率。本文以上海证券交易所开业以来至2007年5月31日的所有A、B股日交易数据为样本,将其按牛市或熊市划分为四个波段,采用事件研究法研究股票发生除权除息事件与事件日前后累积超额收益率之间的关系,发现在牛市里,在除权除息日前购买并持有分红送配的股票能获得显著的正收益,而在熊市里则应该在除权除息日前把股票卖出,研究结果为投资服务起到一定的指导作用。     

我国偏股型开放式基金赎回行为的实证研究——基于牛市和熊市分阶段分析

我国的开放式基金在迅速发展的同时也经历了大规模的赎回。本文运用2005年第四季度到2008年第二季度58只偏股型开放式基金的相关数据,对影响基金赎回的因素进行了实证分析。特别是我国证券市场在2006年到2008年之间经历了一个较大的牛熊转换,因此有必要研究开放式基金的赎回在牛市和熊市期间不同的作用机制。通过面板回归法研究发现,影响基金赎回的因素如基金的净值收益率、基金规模、系统性风险以及分红等因素在牛市和熊市情况下对基金的赎回有着不同程度的影响。最后对基金投资者、基金管理者以及监管者提出了一些建议。     

基于风格层面的开放式基金反馈交易行为的实证研究

文章通过结合Sharpe模型的参数构造一个基于风格层面的基金反馈交易检验模型,对我国在2004年之前成立的开放式股票型基金的反馈交易行为进行实证研究,结果发现：基金普遍采取正反馈交易策略,价值型基金比成长型基金具有明显的正反馈交易特征;在熊市时期,债券型基金的正反馈交易特征最为突出;在牛市时期,成长型基金和债券型基金则表现出明显的负反馈交易特征;历史业绩突出的基金更容易在随后时期内采取正反馈交易策略,这种策略在熊市中会恶化业绩,而在牛市中往往会提高其随后的业绩。     

中国股指期货初探

随着中国资本市场的不断规范发展 ,股票指数期货作为一种行之有效的避险工具 ,已逐渐成为一个热门话题。作者分析了股指期货的概念及现实意义 ,并提出了相关设想和设计股指期货合约 ,对如何在中国开设股指期货交易提出了较系统的建议。     

股票期权计划及其在我国的应用

本文介绍了股票期权计划作为一种新的长期激励制度的特征和实施的内容,并从人力资本产权理论、团队生产理论、风险理论和契约理论四方面阐述了股票期权计划的理论基础,进而结合我国的具体实际分析了在中国实施股票期权计划面临的一些限制性因素,从而就我国实行股票期权计划提出了一些建议。     

股指期货对股票市场的影响分析

中国股票市场发展至今已有近18年的历史,多年来,由于缺乏有效的风险对冲工具,市场一直处于一条腿走路的尴尬局面.而股指期货的推出必将对股票市场产生重大影响,本文将就此做简要的分析.     

Corporate Philanthropy and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China

How to mitigate stock price crash risk has become a focus in the theoretical and practical fields. Building on the work of Kim et al. (J Bank Finance, 43:1–13, 2014b), this paper investigates the relation between corporate philanthropy and crash risk under the unique Chinese institutional background. The results show that both state ownership and the 2005 split share reform attenuate the mitigating effect of corporate philanthropy on crash risk. Specifically, the negative relation between corporate philanthropy and crash risk is less pronounced for state-owned enterprises than for non-state-owned enterprises, and it is also less pronounced after firms accomplish the split share reform. Further, this effect is more pronounced for firms with greater financial risks and poorer performance. Our paper contributes to the growing literature on the determinants of stock price crash risk and the economic consequences of corporate philanthropy. It also offers useful guidance to firms that are seeking to reduce stock price crash risk in emerging markets.     

The world stock markets under geopolitical risks: Dependence structure

This paper reveals joint stochastic behaviours of the world’s stock markets and geopolitical risk by a copula approach for the 37 world’s stock markets over the period of June 1997 to December 2017. The various bivariate copulas show the different degrees of tail dependences and rank correlations. The differences between overall geopolitical risk index and action‐related geopolitical risk index lie in the higher tail dependence with overall geopolitical risk index, the dominancy of concordant movements of stock market indexes with overall geopolitical risk and that of discordant movements of stock market indexes with action‐related geopolitical risk index. The results illustrate that action‐related geopolitical risk is more often adversely related to the world’s stock market performances with less tail dependence.     

What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan

As is well documented, subprime mortgage markets carried significant default risk. This paper investigates the relationship between default risk premium, stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables during the financial crisis. Using iTraxx Japan Credit Default Swap (CDS) index spreads covering the period from March 2006 to November 2009, we employ a time-varying dynamic factor model with Markov regime switching to generate regime probabilities for default risk. We analyze the sensitivity of default risk premium changes to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables by using two-state Markov switching models: a crisis regime sparked by rising loan defaults in the sub-prime mortgage market, and a non-crisis regime. We found strong evidence that the relationship between default risk premium changes, stock market and macroeconomic variables is regime-dependent. Our results suggest that during periods of crisis, CDS indices behave as a higher-risk indicator and become more sensitive to stock market conditions and macroeconomic variables. This paper examines the effects of the financial crisis in explaining the default risk premium. Understanding the determinants of default risk premium is important for financial analysts, economic policy makers and credit risk management.     

基于美德经验的极端风险溢出效应检验

本文运用GARCH模型和主成分分析方法,从分析极端风险溢出机理出发,实证研究国际金融危机前后美国股票市场、债券市场及金银市场对德国股票市场的风险溢出效应,发现标准普尔500指数对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收率不仅存在极端风险溢出效应,且在金融危机前后的三个时期都存在风险溢出效应;而美国13周国债指数日收益率对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收益率在金融危机前后的三个时期都不存在风险溢出效应;费城金银指数的日收益率只在金融危机时期对德国法兰克福DAX指数日收益率产生风险溢出效应,即仅存在极端风险溢出效应。     

股指期货如何影响股市稳定性?——对全球主要市场的三角度实证检验

以全球多个市场作为实证检验对象,从股市波动率变化、系统风险变化以及股市正反馈交易行为影响三个角度,分析股指期货市场稳定作用的含义,即对股市波动的影响及其作用表现,较为全面地解读股指期货的市场稳定作用。研究发现:三个角度都支持股指期货的市场稳定作用;而抑制正反馈交易的作用最为基础、直接和显著,是股指期货市场稳定作用的更为恰当的判断标准。     

Economic policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk

At present, the structural contradiction between Economic Financialization and the real economy's long-term weakness has become increasingly prominent. As China enters a “new normal” stage of economic growth, the real investment rate drops, non-financial enterprises continuously allocate resources to the shadow banking system. The financial economy becomes increasingly divorced from reality. This leads us to the questions: will the shadow banking behavior of non-financial companies exacerbate the risk of stock price crash risk? How does the increase in economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk?This article uses non-financial listed companies' data from 2007 to 2017 and conducts empirical analysis to answer this question. The study finds that companies engaged in high-leverage, high-risk shadow banking business exacerbate stock crash risk. This effect is only pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and low social trust regions. The increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty positively impacts the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking business and stock price crash risk. The theoretical mechanism is as follows: the rise in economic policy uncertainty amplifies the positive relationship between shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and stock price crashes by increasing bank loans, investors' sensitivity to external information, risk cross-contagion, and inefficient investment mechanisms. Various robustness tests do not change the research conclusion. This paper has important theoretical and policy guidance significance for reviewing the existing diversified shadow banking system and preventing systemic risks.     

多元化速度与企业风险短期关联研究——基于中国制造业上市公司数据的研究

企业多元化是个持续过程,度量企业多元化还须使用动态维度,多元化速度可以作为度量企业多元化的动态指标。基于沪深两市制造业上市公司的数据资料,构建多元回归模型,考察多元化速度对企业市场风险、财务风险、经营风险以及总风险的影响,得出以下结论:短期内,较快的多元化速度能降低企业市场风险、财务风险和经营风险;当经济总体处于快速发展阶段,企业应重视多元化速度所产生的正面影响,不失时机加快多元化速度,促进企业成长。