Firms' entry,monetary policy and the international business cycle

This paper proposes a two-country monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the comovement puzzles in international business cycle models. It shows that business formation can generate fluctuations in output, employment, investment and trade flows close to those in the data while at the same time providing positive international comovements. Simulations show that the presence of imported investment goods is essential for replicating these facts.     

基于小型开放经济RBC模型的中国经济波动模拟分析

以随机动态一般均衡模型作为基本分析框架,建立一个具有投资组合调整成本的小型开放经济实际经济周期(RBC)模型,在模型参数校准的基础上分析模型对中国经济波动典型化事实的模拟能力和方差分解效应,结果表明:小型开放经济RBC模型平均可以模拟大约80%以上的中国经济波动;技术冲击是造成中国产出和就业波动的主要因素。     

Goods-market competition and profit sharing: a multisector macro approach

This paper develops a theoretical model that relates the degree of goods-market competition with the extent of profit sharing. Our multisector framework indicates that increased competition in goods markets leads to an increased weighting on firm profits in an optimally indexed contract. Consequently, our model predicts that a rising extent of profit-sharing arrangements in the United States should accompany an increase in the degree of goods-market competition. Available, but limited, data on profit sharing in the United States are generally consistent with this fundamental implication of the model.     

Integrating Macro and Micro Perspectives on Profit-Sharing in China

Despite considerable interest in the adoption of profit-sharing plans in small firms in China, there lacks a comprehensive theoretical framework to explore why these plans are adopted. Much of the literature on profit-sharing originates from a pure economic perspective based upon agency theory. However, when profit-sharing is adopted in small firms at the discretion of the CEO, often psychological mechanisms become an important factor. This paper provides an integrated theoretical framework combining the economic perspective with the psychological perspective to investigate the reason why CEOs in Chinese private firms choose to adopt profit sharing schemes. Specifically, we develop a model examining both internal and external factors specific to the individual and the firm. We then theorize whether the reasons for using the profit-sharing plans will ultimately lead to improved firm performance.     

The Shrinking Hand: Why Information Technology Leads to Smaller Firms

We explain the firm downsizing trend of the recent decades by the new abundance of information – the ICT revolution. Production processes differ in their information requirements: while decentralized production by means of market exchanges is information intensive, less information per unit of output is needed in the hierarchically integrated production of firms, and the information/output ratio is decreasing firm size.

We formulate a quantity of information theory of the firm embodying these differences and derive a Coase–Rybczinski effect for the aggregate economy, which predicts a decreasing employment share of large firms and an increasing share of small ones when the aggregate quantity of information increases Panel data regressions and other evidence provide support for this hypothesis.     

Product Innovation and Small Business Growth: A Comparison of the Strategies of German,U.K. and Irish Companies

Innovation in small firms is important both because of its direct contribution to the competitiveness of those companies but also because of the potential for the small firm sector to act as the initiator, catalyst and medium for wider technical change. In this paper data from the Product Development Survey, a new international survey of firms' product innovation activity and strategy, is used to examine the relationship between product innovation and growth in German, Irish and U.K. small firms. In each country the output of innovative small firms was found to grow significantly faster than that of non-innovators. In Germany, output growth was achieved by a product innovation strategy which sharply increased productivity but reduced employment. U.K. and Irish small firms adopted a more balanced approach with increases in both employment and productivity associated with innovative behaviour. Comparison of the organisation of product innovation indicated that German small firms adopted a less market-oriented, less risky, and more formally organised approach than their U.K. and Irish counterparts. The revealed characteristics of U.K. and Irish small firms suggested that they may be the most effective initiators and catalysts for wider technological change. The larger proportion of German small firms which were innovating, however, suggested that the German small firm sector may be the more effective technology transfer medium.     

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT,CREDIBLE POLICY: The Role of Risk Sharing

This article constructs a model of international joint ventures with risk sharing as the main motivation. A foreign firm decides whether to undertake full ownership foreign direct investment, or to form a public-private joint venture with the host country government in an economy in transition. In our framework uncertain taxation is the source of risk. It is demonstrated that start-up investment cost sharing by the host country government encourages foreign investment. Joint financing of investment can act as insurance for the multinational firm because cost sharing serves as a means to sustain the credibility of government policy.     

破解就业难题——我国企业实行工作分享制的可行性探讨

我国的劳动力过剩问题突出,就业形势严峻,解决就业问题成为了政府工作的一个重点。工作分享制是解决劳动力过剩问题的有效途径,如能在我国企业广泛实行工作分享制,必将很大程度上缓解就业压力。但工作分享制是否能在我国企业广泛实行,是解决就业问题的重要研究内容。     

Job Creation by Company Size Class: The Magnitude,Concentration and Persistence of Job Gains and Losses in Canada

The statistical observation that small firms have created the majority of new jobs during the 1980s has had a tremendous influence on public policy. Governments have looked to the small firm sector for employment growth, and have promoted policies to augment this expansion. However, recent research in the U.S. suggests that net job creation in the manufacturing small firm sector may have been overestimated, relative to that in large firms.The first part of this paper addresses various measurement issues raised in the recent research, reassess the issue of job creation by firm size, and pushes this work beyond the manufacturing sector by employing longitudinal data covering all companies in the Canadian economy. We conclude that over the 1978–92 period, as a group small firms did account for a disproportionate share of both gross job gains and losses, and net employment increases, no matter which method of sizing firms is used. Measurement does matter, however, as the magnitude of the difference in the growth rates between small and large firms is very sensitive to the measurement approaches used. Part one of the paper also produces results for various industrial sectors, and examines employment growth in existing small and large firms (i.e., excluding births). It is found that employment growth in the population of existing small and large firms is very similar. Attempts are made to introduce a job quality aspect to the analysis by using payroll rather than employment data. Payroll data allow any relative change in hours worked or wages paid in small (relative to large) companies to be incorporated in the findings. This did not significantly alter the conclusions reached using employment data only.The second part of the paper looks at concentration and persistence of employment creation and destruction within size classes. If growth is highly concentrated, knowing that a firm is small will provide little information about its prospects for growth. Most small firms would grow relatively little, or decline, while a few expanded a lot. It is found that both job creation and destruction is highly concentrated among relatively few firms in all size groups. There are fast growing firms in all size classes, and although most job creation is found in the small firm sector, the fastest growing large firms out-perform the majority of small firms in any given period. Finally, the employment creation performance of businesses are compared over two three-year periods. It is found that knowing that a firm is a high performer (in terms of jobs created) over one period is of only limited value in determining growth in the second period. This is particularly true among small firms. These results suggest that firms which expand rapidly during one period are replaced to some considerable degree by others in the subsequent period.     

共享经济视域下竞争政策的完善路径

共享经济作为基于互联网以及智能设备产生的新型经济模式,是以信息技术、定位导航系统、移动支付等创新技术的高度整合为基础,结合共享理念,并付诸商业实践的市场新形态。共享经济的优势在于最大限度发挥闲置资源的价值,加快行业改革的步伐与进程,并通过竞争政策及其机制彰显市场资源配置的最优化和共享经济的价值特征。共享经济相较于传统经济模式具有高技术性、信用依赖性、非占有性的特点,对竞争政策在共享经济领域的适用带来新挑战。在此背景之下传统行业的转型与新型行业或领域的兴起,使整个市场中竞争状况发生巨大变化。从实践角度多方面剖析共享经济企业的实际竞争状况,以共享经济交通行业和共享旅游住宿行业为例归纳共享经济的行业分布情况与企业数量,分别解析共享交通出行行业的平台模式和分时租赁模式的企业数量与产品差异程度,并根据波特竞争模型阐释共享经济行业的整体市场竞争环境。从共享经济的目标功能出发,分析共享经济的定价机制,阐述共享经济中的掠夺性定价行为、横向合并行为、独家交易行为等限制竞争行为的现状和表现形式,挖掘在共享经济视域下三种限制竞争行为规制的难题,提出共享经济视野下竞争政策的具体完善措施:转变竞争政策实施思维,明确竞争政策的优先地位;综合运用竞争政策工具,尤其是公平竞争审查制度的适用;从执法“零容忍”和构建竞争软文化两方面出发,推动竞争执法的常态化;构建合理有效的定价机制,以调动共享经济各方的积极性。     

As the Current Account Turns: Disaggregating the Effects of Current Account Reversals in Industrial Countries

This paper extends the study of current account (CA) reversals by considering the implications for the composition of output and employment. It is shown that decreases in CA deficits imply increases in tradable relative to non‐tradable output and/or declines in investment. The impact of CA ‘rebalancing’ should therefore be expected to vary considerably across sectors of an economy. This intersectoral variation is studied by examining the dynamics of output, employment and prices using data for 55 sectors of the economy during 14 industrial country reversal episodes. The output and employment declines associated with CA reversals are most clearly evident in investment‐related sectors, while sectors related to primary commodities generally perform relatively well following reversals. Reversals are also followed by increases in relative inflation for tradable goods sectors.     

Innovation,firm size,and firm age

This paper uses a new data set on innovation output to assess the degree to which the level of innovation in manufacturing firms is influenced by firm size and firm age. Indicators of innovation output used are the number of new products introduced as a function of firm sales and the proportion of firm sales obtained from products first introduced in the previous five years. While the evidence is mixed, the results tend to indicate that it is possible to separate the effects of age and size in assessing the level of innovation. Both firm size and firm age tend to be inversely related to innovative output.     

International Production Sharing Opportunities in Mexico and the Caribbean

Abstract

In an effort to take advantage of access to valuable resources and increased market presence, many U.S. manufacturers have pursued production sharing relationships in a variety of overseas locations. These efforts are seen as methods of combating several threats to firm performance: increased domestic production costs, escalating international manufacturing competition, and ever changing barriers to entry regulations. From the perspective of an integrated North American competitive strategy, two geographic areas-Mexico and the Caribbean Basin-have received much attention as potential operating locations. Using a survey of corporate managers responsible for strategic business unit operations, this study investigates and compares the manufacturing and logistics performance of U.S. manufacturers operating in Mexico and the Caribbean. Relationships between logistics performance, manufacturing performance, and firm performance are examined and managerial implications are discussed.     

Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?

The results in this paper, using a structural multicountry macroeconometric model, suggest that there is at most a small gain from fiscal stimulus in the form of increased transfer payments or increased tax deductions if the increased debt generated must eventually be paid back. The gain in output and employment on the way up is roughly offset by the loss in output and employment on the way down as the debt from the initial stimulus is paid off. This conclusion is robust to different assumptions about monetary policy. To the extent that there is a gain, the longer one waits to begin paying the debt back the better. Possible caveats regarding the model used are that (1) monetary policy is not powerful enough to keep the economy at full employment, (2) potential output is taken to be exogenous, (3) possible permanent effects on asset prices and animal spirits from a stimulus are not taken into account, and (4) the model does not have the feature that in really bad times the economy might collapse without a stimulus.     

当校园闲置资源遇见“分享经济”

从校园闲置资源实际调查分析出发,文章指出现阶段校园内存在严重的资源浪费现象。结合前人研究的成果,以分享经济为背景构建高效、便捷的校园闲置资源共享平台,可以有效解决校园资源被闲置的疑难杂症。     

Sources of sectoral fluctuations in business fixed investment

A model of macroeconomic complementarity is used to assess causes of comovement in investment spending across nine sectors of the U.S. economy. It is hypothesized that the irreversibility and uncertainty of investment spending imply a greater role for investment linkages and aggregate factors in investment fluctuations compared with estimates for employment and output. For the average sector, past investment growth across all sectors, changes in aggregate demand, and a common factor account for two-thirds of the variance of investment growth. After accounting for aggregate demand, sectoral shocks explain 70% of the average sector’s innovations to investment growth.     

人力资源管理外包中知识共享的互惠现象

在人力资源管理外包的过程中,外包公司与雇主公司各自的团队组成了一个大的团队来共同完成项目,团队之间的知识共享是项目成功与否的关键。由于关系的特殊性,双方除了竞争之外更多的是互惠关系,因此团队之间的知识共享过程不仅可以是一个非合作的博弈,还可以是合作博弈。本文首先引入人力资源管理外包公司团队与雇主公司团队进行一次性博弈的模型,在平衡完全信息的前提下谈论非合作博弈和合作博弈的两种结果;然后接着研究外包公司在生命周期内与不同雇主公司进行重复博弈的情况,给出当前人力资源管理外包存在的风险所对应的对策。     

Efficient bargaining,welfare and strategic export policy

We present an efficient bargaining model and analyse the welfare effects of unionization, where rival exporting governments employ strategic export policy. The domestic firm is unionized and conducts a Nash bargain with its union to determine wage and employment. The union may be wage oriented, wage neutral or employment oriented. The foreign firm is non-unionized. Stability of the reaction function equilibrium in policy space is sufficient for the following results: (i) domestic welfare increases with the degree of wage orientation; (ii) an increase in the union's bargaining power leads to higher (lower) domestic welfare if the union is wage (employment) oriented; (iii) if the domestic social marginal cost of labour is less than or equal to the foreign marginal cost, domestic market share is higher under wage orientation.     

Wages,Health Insurance Benefits,and Worker Sorting Under Asymmetric Information

Abstract

Employer-sponsored health insurance is the single largest source of health insurance in the USA. In this paper, we explore a model that treats a firm as a de facto insurance company. More specifically, we model a firm as both a producer of goods for an output market and a health insurance company for their employees. The model accounts for the joint provision of wages and health insurance, including the possibility of asymmetric information in employee health status. With this structure, a firm can choose to pay their workers in some combination of cash wages and health insurance. We characterize optimal employment contracts and show that the Rothschild–Stiglitz model results under asymmetric information extend to employer provided insurance. We also find that employment-based insurance offers pooling options that are typically not available when insurance is sold as a standalone product, suggesting a stability to employer-based insurance that is not dependent on the tax system.     

PURE JOINT PRODUCTION,INCOME DISTRIBUTION,EMPLOYMENT AND THE EXCHANGE RATE

This paper deals with an open economy with heterogeneous capital and linear processes of pure joint production from a long‐period perspective. It is shown that: (1) an effective exchange rate change has ambiguous effects on the distribution of income and the competitiveness of domestic output; (2) the matrix of super‐multipliers linking exports to gross output is not always uniquely defined; and (3) the volume of exports and the volume of total employment may be inversely related, even if prices and distribution do not change.