信贷资产支持证券违约风险分析

信贷资产证券化是国际金融领域重要的金融创新工具,在我国正处于试点阶段,才刚刚起步,因此信贷资产证券化不可避免地会存在许多风险。就信贷资产支持证券的违约风险问题进行研究,先介绍违约风险的度量方法,再深入分析了KMV模型,然后提出控制信贷资产证券化违约风险的策略。     

我国商业银行信贷资产证券化风险的有效控制研究

资产证券化作为一项新兴的技术,在金融领域得到了广泛应用。但是,资产的证券化使得银行风险分散到其他领域,扩大了风险范围。本文在我国国情的基础上,对商业银行资产证券化风险作了详细的研究和分析,并提出有效控制风险的策略。     

论资产证券化业务风险的控制

目前,我国被证券化的资产主要包括以下三个类型,一种是金融机构的正常信贷资产,一种是金融机构的不良信贷资产,还有一种是企业收益专项资产。其中以不良资产本息偿还为现金流的资产证券化业务类型,被认为是化解不良资产比例过高、增强商业银行资产流动性的重要手段,而得到众多商业银行的青睐。然而,由于我国资产证券化业务的程序非常繁杂,容易产生风险的环节也就非常多,对其进行风险的防范与控制就显得十分重要。基于此,笔者就我国资产证券化业务的风险控制问题展开论述,文章分别从资产证券化业务的发起人、资产证券化的中心环节——SPV、信用评估机构、担保人以及受托管理人等五个容易产生风险的环节进行了分析与论述,分别分析了各个环节中存在的风险并提出了相应的防范对策,最后对全文进行了总结,以期能够对我国当前资产证券化业务风险的控制问题提供一点可借鉴之处。     

谈资产证券化中的法律问题

随着中国市场经济的发展,资产证券化在中国实务界的呼声日益高涨。从资产证券化的本质和法 律特征,分析资产证券化风险控制的法律问题,并对我国实行资产证券化的可行性进行分析,同时提出 建设性意见。     

收费权类资产证券化产品可行性研究

自大成西黄河大桥专项资产管理计划成为中国资产证券化市场发展史上首支违约的资产支持证券以来,学界对收费累资产证券化产品的探讨未有止息,但是研究较少涉及收费权作为基础资产的合理性问题。本文将从资产证券化的目的和要素出发,探讨收费权类资产作为资产证券化基础资产的合理性。     

资产证券化的运行研究论述

文章主要分析了资产证券化的运行过程,阐述了资产证券化运行中存在的风险以及防范措施,最后总结了资产证券化运行的注意事项,希望能够通过本文的研究,实现资产证券化运行风险的良好控制,提高资产证券化运行的安全性。所谓的资产证券化主要是指将原本固定不流动的资产,转换为在金融市场上能够进行自由买卖的一种证券行为,使其具有流动性,并以特定资产组合或特定现金流为支持,发行可交易证券的一种融资形式。     

原始资产质量的风险博弈分析

通过对资产出售者风险控制方式以及资产证券化结构安排的研究，运用委托代理的方法对原始资产的质量控制做深入分析，提高资产证券化市场的良性发展应做好以下三点：加强对银行业内部风险控制的监督；加强社会化征信制度建设；商业银行必须购置最低级别的资产。     

从金融危机分析资产证券风险防范的法律设计

有效防范资产证券风险一直是资产证券化的难点.本文结合对美国金融危机以及目前资产证券化风险的分析,认为资产证券化的最大风险仍然是资产本身的风险,对于资产证券化风险的防范主要是资产本身风险的防范,防范的核心是建立一套与资产证券化相适应的有效信用评级机构监督管理制度.     

住房抵押贷款信用风险形成机制研究

信用风险是住房抵押贷款所面临的最主要风险。根据购房动机将房贷者划分为自住型房贷者和投资型房贷者,并将违约划分为主动违约和被动违约。分析认为住房抵押贷款信用风险形成机制主要在于市场供求决定房产市场价值,首付比例和还款年限决定房贷余额,支付能力和还款意愿决定是否违约,房产市值和贷款余额决定实际损失。我国房地产市场中房贷余额短期下降速度较慢,房价存在快速下跌风险,住房抵押贷款首付比例偏低导致房产市值小于房贷余额,这些情况都会增加违约风险,严重的可能导致金融危机。控制住房抵押贷款信用风险,贷前应认真考察房贷者信用水平,提高首付比例,确定合适贷款期限及提高资产证券化比率等。     

浅析中国资产证券化发展的风险防范

目前我国对资产证券化的研究普遍集中于银行不良资产证券化问题以及资产证券化发展的障碍和前景,对其风险分析方面理论文献较少。赵胜来、陈俊芳在《资产证券化的风险及定价研究》中总结了资产证券化普遍存在的四大风险：交易结构风险、信用风险、提前偿还风险和利率风险。与赵、陈不同的是,该文着重分析中国本土资产证券化方面可能出现的风险问题,并增加了系统风险和证券化产品风险方面的分析,最后有针对性地寻找防范措施。     

组织间开簿成本会计的相互信任风险与信任机制研究

组织间开簿成本会计是建立在企业相互信任的基础之上的。从信息经济学角度分析,组织间开簿成本会计存在着"逆向选择"风险和"败德行为"风险两类信任风险。防范组织间开簿成本会计信任风险,要构建信任产生的网络信任度评价机制;专用性投资机制;声誉机制;承诺机制;财产抵押机制。要构建相互信任的强化机制,包括网络激励机制、相互依赖机制、沟通机制、违约赔偿机制、权力均衡机制;要构建信任保障机制,包括合同、契约约束机制、专用投资退出成本约束机制、道德成本约束机制、团队文化机制。从而实现弱化风险,降低信息成本,共享信息资源。     

Equilibrium with Default and Endogenous Collateral

We study a two‐period general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and default. We make collateral endogenous by allowing each seller of assets to fix the level of collateral. Sellers are required to provide collateral whose first‐period value, per unit of asset, exceeds the asset price by an arbitrarily small amount. Moreover, borrowers are also required to be fully covered by the purchase, in the first period, of state‐by‐state default insurance. These insurance contracts are offered by lenders. The insurance cost or revenue is a linear charge and plays the role of a spread penalizing borrowers who will incur in default and benefiting lenders who will suffer default. Under these assumptions, equilibrium always exists.     

LOCAL RISK MINIMIZATION FOR DEFAULTABLE MARKETS

We study the local risk minimization approach for defaultable markets in a general setting where the asset price dynamics and the default time may influence each other. We find the Föllmer-Schweizer decomposition in this general setting and compute it explicitly in two particular cases, when default time depends on the risky asset's behavior and when only a dependence of discounted asset price on default time is occurring.     

Valuing Seller‐Defaultable Options

This study analyzes seller‐defaultable options that allow option writers to have a free‐will right to default, along with some prespecified default mechanisms. We analytically and numerically examine the pricing, hedging, defaulting, and profitability of the seller‐defaultable options, considering three possible scenarios for seller default. Analyzing the essential implications of seller‐defaultable options, we show that the option price is positively correlated with the default fine, underlying asset price, and volatility. The seller‐defaultable option's Greeks appear more complicated than those of the plain vanilla options. The likelihood of sellers defaulting increases with the underlying asset price, interest rate, volatility, and maturity time. Subject to the default mechanism, the buyers’ trading involves a trade‐off between profits and costs. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:129–157, 2013     

Corporate security prices in structural credit risk models with incomplete information

The paper studies derivative asset analysis in structural credit risk models where the asset value of the firm is not fully observable. It is shown that in order to determine the price dynamics of traded securities, one needs to solve a stochastic filtering problem for the asset value. We transform this problem to a filtering problem for a stopped diffusion process and apply results from the filtering literature to this problem. In this way, we obtain an stochastic partial differential equation characterization for the filter density. Moreover, we characterize the default intensity under incomplete information and determine the price dynamics of traded securities. Armed with these results, we study derivative assets in our setup: We explain how the model can be applied to the pricing of options on traded assets and we discuss dynamic hedging and model calibration. The paper closes with a small simulation study.     

What risks do corporate bond put features insure against?

Corporate bond prices are known to be influenced by default and term structure risk in addition to non‐default risks such as illiquidity. Putable corporate bonds allow investors to sell their holdings back to the issuer and may thus provide insurance against all of these risks. We first document empirically that embedded put option values are related to proxies for all three. In a second step, we develop a valuation model that simultaneously captures default and interest rate risk. We use this model to disentangle the reduction in yield spread enjoyed by putable bonds that can be attributed to each risk. Perhaps surprisingly, the most important reduction is due to mitigated default or spread risk, followed by term structure risk. The reduction in the non‐default component is present but rather small.     

商业银行不良资产证券化存在风险及对策分析

从我国开始促进发展商业银行不良资产证券化至今,已取得了一定的成效和收益,但其仍然面临的一定的风险和挑战,面临的风险主要包括定价风险、信用风险、法律政策风险、结构风险等。其成因主要在于商业银行管理体制落后,信用风险管理方法欠缺,监督监管体制不完善,商业银行绩效考核机制不完善等方面。我国应进一步完善我国金融市场环境,健全不良资产证券化法律政策制度体系,完善资产证券化会计处理准则,规范监管商业银行不良资产运作机制,发展和完善信托方式和交易结构,从而进一步促进商业银行不良资产证券化的发展与完善。     

Predicting default probabilities and implementing trading strategies for emerging markets bond portfolios

In this paper, we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for U.S. Dollar denominated Global bonds of 12 emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997–2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a “customized benchmark”, and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation.     

资本资产定价模型的扩展及其在保险中的应用

传统的资本资产定价模型是在一系列过于严格化、理想化的条件下建立起来的。针对现实资本市场情况,通过对资本资产定价模型的应用条件的部分修改,如增加保险公司存在违约风险、交易费用和税收的条件,并且讨论交易费用分别为固定值和保费的函数时的情形以及税收分为固定值和变量的情形,对保费定价问题进行模型扩展。理论推导结果显示,在存在违约风险情况下,保险公司所收保费应该更低;承保费用越少,所需保费就越少;存在税负条件下的公平保费与税收水平有关。     

Optimal investment and pricing in the presence of defaults

We consider the optimal investment problem with random endowment in the presence of defaults. For an investor with constant absolute risk aversion, we identify the certainty equivalent, and compute prices for defaultable bonds and dynamic protection against default. This latter price is interpreted as the premium for a contingent credit default swap, and connects our work with earlier articles, where the investor is protected upon default. We consider a multiple risky asset model with a single default time, at which point each of the assets may jump in price. Investment opportunities are driven by a diffusion X taking values in an arbitrary region . We allow for stochastic volatility, correlation, and recovery; unbounded random endowments; and postdefault trading. We identify the certainty equivalent with a semilinear parabolic partial differential equation with quadratic growth in both function and gradient. Under minimal integrability assumptions, we show that the certainty equivalent is a classical solution. Numerical examples highlight the relationship between the factor process, market dynamics, utility‐based prices, and default insurance premium. In particular, we show that the holder of a defaultable bond has a strong incentive to short the underlying stock, even for very low default intensities.