“刘易斯拐点”已现：“民工荒”与“涨薪潮”

本文通过愈演愈烈的＂民工荒＂、＂涨薪潮＂和＂劳资纠纷＂现象,根据发展经济学基本理论,结合城市化进程和城乡劳动力市场一体化进程的新态势,综合判定我国经济过程中第一个＂刘易斯拐点＂（短缺点）已经出现。我国经济已经发展到＂刘易斯转折区域＂这一阶段,＂人口红利＂逐步消失,结构性就业矛盾更加严重。随着＂刘易斯拐点＂出现,我国农村劳动力供需状况发生实质性变化,这将给我国经济社会发展战略和产业发展政策带来新的挑战,需要有关方面采取相应对策。     

Factors determining the use of nutrition labels: The case of Malaysia

The rising prevalence of diet-related illnesses, the most visible of health problems, in both developed and developing countries has become a serious public health concern. Nutrition labeling plays an important role in promoting healthy diet and, thus, in improving population health. The objective of the present study is to investigate how socioeconomic factors—age, income, gender, education, marital status, house locality and employment status—affect the use of nutrition labels among Malaysian adults. The Third National Health and Morbidity Survey of Malaysia, which consisted of 34,539 respondents, is used for analysis. A logit model is developed to examine the probability of using nutrition labels. Evidence from the present study shows that age, income, gender, education, and marital status are significantly associated with the use of nutrition labels. In particular, age reduces the likelihood of using nutrition labels, while high income earners, females, the well-educated, and married individuals are more likely to use nutrition labels. The findings of the present study suggest that differentiated targeted efforts should be used on the various population groups identified when implementing programs and activities promoting the use of nutrition labels.     

Economic Implications of Demographic Change: Diversity Dividend or Deficit?

The economic implications of demographic change depend on steadfast investments in research and development; replenishment of the human capital stock diminished by retiring Baby Boomers; and raising college attainment rates. This way the United States can leverage its diverse, fast-growing population to harness a demographic dividend—the productivity boost enabled by declining fertility—while also fueling economic growth, restocking the Social Security system, and bolstering global competitiveness.     

How Economic Tropes Affect Attitudes Toward Social Welfare Policies

We offer a framework for understanding public responses to social programs designed to alleviate disadvantages experienced by some sectors of the U.S. population. The framework is built on 2 key tropes of generalized exchange theory: mutuality and possessive individualism. Using the Affordable Care Act (ACA) as a public sector context, we show how marketing messages can be manipulated to affect consumer likelihood to participate in and support the public policy. Consistent with cognitive attitude models, we find that beliefs regarding individual and mutual benefits are significant, positive predictors of ACA attitudes. In contrast, when messages are framed with ideological economic tropes—possessive individualism or mutuality—ACA attitudes diverge. Priming possessive individualism negatively affects program attitudes relative to a mutuality prime or a no-prime control condition. We conclude with policy advice for those tasked with effective implementation of public sector programs.     

The effect of innovation policy on SMEs’ employment and wages in Argentina

This article evaluates the effect of the Argentinean Support Program for Organizational Change on employment and wages. The program aimed at increasing small and medium-sized enterprises’ competitiveness by co-financing technical assistance to support process and product innovation activities. Although employment is not usually the main objective of these types of programs, they are always implemented assuming that they create—or at least do not destroy—employment opportunities. We use a unique data set with information for the population of firms in Argentina from 1996 to 2008 to test this important assumption. Using a combination of fixed effects and matching, we find that both process and product innovation support increased employment and wages, with a higher impact on employment. In addition, we find that product innovation support had a larger effect on wages than process innovation support.     

An Eye for an Eye Will Make the Whole World Blind: Conflict Escalation into Workplace Bullying and the Role of Distributive Conflict Behavior

The current study investigated how work-related disagreements—coined as conflicts—relate to workplace bullying, from the perspective of the target as well as the perpetrator. We hypothesized a positive indirect association between task conflicts and bullying through relationship conflicts. This process accounted for both for targets and perpetrators of bullying. Targets are distinguished from perpetrators in our assumption that this indirect effect is boosted by distributive conflict behavior, being yielding for targets and forcing for perpetrators. Results in a large representative sample of the Flemish working population (N = 2,029) confirmed our hypotheses. Additionally, our study also revealed a direct effect from task conflicts to bullying in the analyses regarding the indirect as well as the conditional indirect effects. For perpetrators, both the indirect and direct relationships are moderated by forcing, underlining the importance of distributive conflict behavior particularly for the enactment of bullying behaviors.     

Clarifying the Relationship between Involvement Variables and Advertising Effectiveness among Young People

Previous research has indicated the need for an in-depth investigation of the role of involvement variables in advertising information processing among young people, in view of the unsuitability of existing adult persuasion models for a young population, the inadequate consideration of involvement variables among young people and the unique characteristics of this population. This study examined the effects of advertising involvement and product involvement on advertising effectiveness among young people, using a quantitative study of 252 4–15-year olds. Results show that advertising involvement and product involvement had a positive direct effect on ad effectiveness. In addition, all endogenous variables—subjective product knowledge, peer and parent influence and age—had an indirect effect on ad effectiveness, via advertising involvement and product involvement. Interestingly, subjective product knowledge and peer influence had no direct effect on ad effectiveness, but rather only an indirect effect. This study presents a more accurate depiction of the complexity of the process and shows that advertising involvement and product involvement contribute to a better understanding of the process among young people.     

Public and Private Challenges of an Aging U.S. Population

The challenges posed by the aging of the U.S. population for business and public policy are vast. They are amplified particularly by:??Slow increase of incomes—and therefore low private savings—for those at the bottom of the pay distribution.??Cutbacks in employee health-care insurance and defined benefit pension plans.??Unsustainability of Social Security and Medicare as currently configured.This paper spells out these challenges and discusses how they can be addressed. Of particular importance are some combination of enhanced revenue and reduced expenditure for Social Security and Medicare, the shift of private pension plans from defined benefit to defined contribution, the need to consider later retirement ages, and the need for improved personal financial literacy.     

Ethno-national ties and international business opportunity exploitation: The role of environmental factors

This paper examines the effect of ethnic populations on international opportunity exploitation at a societal, or national, level. Past research shows a relationship between ethnic ties and international opportunity at an individual level; however, little is known about the role of ethnic ties and international opportunity at a national level, which is called ‘ethno-national ties’ in this study. In order to acquire in-depth knowledge of this subject, we studied a population of Chinese who are living outside their home country and applied contingency theory principles to investigate environmental boundary conditions that affect this population. Data collected from Chinese exporters indicate an overall positive effect of ethno-national ties on international opportunity exploitation—an effect that is influenced by three moderating variables: technological turbulence, psychic distance, and export barriers. Technological turbulence and export barriers weaken the effect of ethno-national ties on international opportunity exploitation while psychic distance enhances the effect.     

A perfect storm is facing U.S. supermarkets

Abstract

This article discusses a “perfect storm” that has evolved in recent years related to the composition of the U.S. Latino population—a dramatic demographic shift that threatens the economic stability of supermarkets and other retailers that have traditionally focused their services or products on the foreign-born segment of the Latino population. Using spatial analysis of recent data provided by the American Community Survey and the Consumer Expenditure Survey, the study identified four distinct segments of U.S. counties that provide different levels of market potential related to the concentration of native-born and foreign-born Latinos, their English-language proficiency, and their estimated food-at-home expenditures. Based on these findings, suggestions are made for marketers to re-align their marketing strategies to minimize the potential negative consequences of the developing perfect storm.     

Complex Samples and Regression‐Based Inference: Considerations for Consumer Researchers

This article demonstrates that researchers who treat data collected via complex sampling procedures as if they were collected via simple random sample (SRS) may draw improper inferences when estimating regression models. Using complex sample data from the 2004 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) two models—one ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and one logistic regression—were estimated using three methods: SRS with and without population weights, Taylor series linearization, and Fay's Balanced Repeated Replication (BRR). The results of the alternative models demonstrate that depending on the variables of interest, authors who fail to incorporate sample design information or fail to consider the effects of weighting may draw improper inferences from their regression models. Reasons why researchers continue to neglect complex sample‐based variance are proposed and discussed, and example SAS and Stata code is offered to encourage adoption by the consumer research community.     

The Prospects for Future Economic Growth in the Euro Area

With a long-term projection of TFP growth of 0.2 per cent, a gradual decline in the work-age population and a static average workweek, we project a "baseline" average real GDP growth rate in the euro area of just 0.6 per cent over the next decade — even if the unemployment rate and investment share of GDP return to their pre-crisis levels by 2020.     

Das Wissenskapital der Nationen: gute Bildung als Wachstumsmotor

The long run prosperity of nations is directly related to the skills of their population. The relevant cognitive skills — the “knowledge capital” of a nation — can be measured well by international math and science tests. The consideration of knowledge capital can completely account for the Latin American growth puzzle and the East Asian growth miracle. Several analyses suggest that the relationship depicts a causal effect of skills. According to the evidence, an understanding of long run growth ultimately has to rest on the knowledge capital of nations. To further long run prosperity, policies should focus on education. Effective education systems align incentives with achievement through better educational practices such as external exams, school autonomy, choice and competition.     

Secular Outlook for Global Growth: 2015–34

Fidelity’s Asset Allocation Research Team employs a multi-time-horizon asset allocation approach that analyzes trends among three temporal segments: tactical (short term), business cycle (medium term), and secular (long term). This report focuses exclusively on secular trends that may influence the long-term outlook for various asset classes. Key takeaways are the following:??Slower growth is expected to result in a historically lower interest-rate climate and less of a tailwind to equities. ??With the economy providing the backdrop for asset markets, our secular GDP growth forecasts are the foundation for developing long-term capital market assumptions. ??Our forward-looking, global approach emphasizes the key components of GDP growth—population and productivity—and calculates the critical drivers that have been most predictive. ??Over the next 20 years, global growth is expected to be somewhat slower, due primarily to deteriorating demographics in most countries, particularly aging populations in advanced economies. ??Emerging Asia is expected to grow more slowly, due in part to less catch-up potential after a period of rapid growth, though developing economies in general should continue to experience faster relative growth. ??Slower world growth will lead to lower-than-historical-average interest rates and provide less of a boost to equity returns, but global opportunities for investment are still expected to expand.     

Integrating Negative Social Cues in Tobacco Packaging: A Novel Approach to Discouraging Smokers

Smoking is an international health crisis. Tobacco packaging is an important vehicle to convey antismoking messages, which to date have been predominantly limited to fear‐based health appeals. Using an experimental approach, we examine whether a novel alternative—using negative social cues on packaging—is effective at discouraging smoking. Our results support the notion that packaging which conveys to smokers that “others” view smoking negatively is sufficient to trigger feelings of self‐consciousness, which in turn reduces smoking intentions. This approach is particularly effective in “isolated” smokers who do not see smoking as identity‐relevant or congruent with their social self. These findings suggest that for a particular segment of the smoking population, the integration of negative social cues on packaging may be an effective complement to current fear‐based appeals.     

Spain between resignation and hope

The economic and fi nancial crisis has hit Spain harder than practically any other country in Europe. Even if there are occasional reports that the Spanish economy is improving slightly, the unemployment rate remains at 25 per cent — and is as high as 54 per cent among Spain’s young people. The data presented in this article, which were obtained via a representative survey of the Spanish population, paint an ambivalent portrait of a country that is hovering between resignation and hope. Above all, the fi ndings clearly show how little confi dence the people of Spain have in their government’s ability to solve the current problems and how adamantly they reject proposed economic reforms.     

Waste Not,Want Not: A Case Study on Food Waste in Restaurants of Lahore,Pakistan

ABSTRACT

Recently, there is growing focus on quantifying food waste problem and analyzing its causes due to an imminent challenge: feed nine billion people by 2050. Among developing countries, we focus on Pakistan which has the sixth largest population in the world and faces serious issues of food insecurity and malnourishment. Astoundingly, despite the gravity of the situation the available research on the issue is almost non-existent. Here, in this first-of-its-kind study for Pakistan we attempt to measure the quantum of food wastage and study its underlying reasons across restaurants in the country’s second largest urban center, Lahore, which is also popularly designated as “the culinary capital of Pakistan”. Segmenting restaurants according to the niche markets they target—as high-end, medium-end, and low-end—and using actual measures of daily wastage, we find overproduction and liability concerns as the prime reasons of excess food preparation and its improper disposal.     

The installed base effect: Implications for the management of innovation

Most studies of barriers to the adoption of innovations concentrate on characteristics of the population (consumer or organizational), features of the product, or the marketing mix This paper examines a seldom studied barrier— the installed base of the technology or product being supplanted In order to describe the magnitude of this barrier and to provide recommendations for overcoming it, the Installed Base Effect is examined from three dimensions: supply, demand and market externalities     

How cultural branding,story-telling,and personification can save the iconic Australian koala

This article addresses the question as to why such a much loved and iconic Australian animal—the koala—has long been headed on a trajectory of extinction; primarily due to a lack of public concern and political will. Despite the affectionate regard in which they are held, koalas remain out of sight and out of mind for most Australians. However, the widely publicized catastrophic Australian bushfire season of 2019–2020 is a rare and illuminating case in which public support for koala welfare was stimulated by significant national and international media attention. The primary problem facing koala conservation was thrown into sharp relief—the need to proactively protect them from human activities destroying their habitat. This article explores how a marketer-lead intervention, employing cultural branding, story-telling, and personification, could potentially motivate the public to apply pressure at all levels of government to proactively protect the koala's habitat and grow their numbers. This solution is grounded in an awareness of several issues likely to impact its success, including: (1) the koala's biology and behavior, (2) uncertainty around koala population numbers, (3) the emergence of the koala as an (inter)national) icon, (4) the Australian 2019–2020 bushfire emergency, (5) postfire complacency, (6) Lewis and other koala stories, (7) acknowledging competing interests, and (8) taking learnings forward. Finally, the proposed campaign centers on forging emotional links between the koala and consumers, which are likely to positively impact consumers' attitudes, information processing and memory functions associated with messages highlighting the need to preserve the koala's habitat.     

Patterns of social reporting from an Islamic framework and the moral legitimacy factors that influence them

The objective of this study is twofold: to examine the patterns that govern social reporting with reference to an Islamic framework and to identify the moral legitimacy factors that influence them. We select 146 publicly listed Sharia‐compliant companies and classify the disclosures in their annual reports according to an Islamic framework that categorises items as either Required, Expected or Desired to indicate the degree of importance each item carries from an Islamic perspective. Based on this framework, we then analyse moral legitimacy factors, specifically the type of Sharia screening body and the proportion of Muslims in the population, that may influence the prioritisation of the different categories of social reporting. We find that disclosures that fall into the Required category of our framework—especially those that relate to companies’ involvement in “haram” activities (activities not permissible in Islam)—are still few among the companies studied. Our research also reveals that both moral legitimacy factors under investigation influence the three categories of social reporting, although in different ways. This research contributes to the existing literature by empirically examining how organisations prioritise their disclosure of virtues and the moral legitimacy factors that influence that prioritisation.