Financial integration, productivity and capital accumulation

Understanding the mechanism through which financial globalization affects economic performance is crucial for evaluating the costs and benefits of opening financial markets. This paper is a first attempt at disentangling the effects of financial integration on the two main determinants of economic performance: productivity (TFP) and investment. I provide empirical evidence from a sample of 70 countries observed between 1975 and 1999. The results for both de jure and de facto indicators suggest that financial integration has a positive direct effect on productivity, while it does not directly affect capital accumulation. I also control for indirect effects of financial globalization through financial development and banking and currency crises. While financial integration does not systematically increase domestic financial depth, it may raise the likelihood of banking crises, though only to a minor extent. Yet, the overall effect of financial liberalization remains positive for productivity and negligible for investment.     

Macroprudential policies,economic growth and banking crises

Using a sample covering emerging market and advanced economies, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. Our empirical setup is designed to account for the potential direct and indirect effects that macroprudential policies can have on banking crises. We find that while macroprudential policies (MPPs) exert a direct stabilizing effect, they also have an indirect destabilizing effect, which works through the depressing of economic growth. It turns out that mitigating effects of MPPs on the likelihood of banking crises is more pronounced in emerging market economies relative to advanced economies.     

Immediate responses to financial crises: A focus on US MNE subsidiaries

This paper provides evidence for the immediate or short-term responses to financial crises of US multinational firm (MNE) subsidiaries. Using a real options perspective, we hypothesize that financial crises change the relative value of ‘within-country’ versus ‘across-country’ options for MNE subsidiaries. We suggest that relocating subsidiary output is an effective short-term response to local financial crises. We examine the effects of 83 financial crises (banking, debt and currency crises) on longitudinal data of US MNEs’ subsidiary sales in over 50 countries in the period 1983–2005. Our results show market-switching effects. Particularly in the case of local currency crises we observe a refocus of the MNE's subsidiary local sales toward export markets. The effect is maintained in the occurrence of twin financial crises. These results confirm our expectation that financial crises cause an increase in the value of ‘across-country’ option relative to ‘within-country’ option.     

金融发展、金融脆弱与银行国际化

银行国际化一方面会促进金融发展,另一方面也将导致金融脆弱.本文以理论分析和实证检验相结合的方式,探讨了我国银行国际化从不同方面促进金融发展以及导致金融脆弱之间的逻辑关系,并对两种不同效应从整体宏观的角度进行比较,得出银行国际化正效应大于负效应的结论,从而在理论上回答了政策当局是否应当推行银行国际化的问题.     

Economic policy uncertainty,non-financial enterprises' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk

At present, the structural contradiction between Economic Financialization and the real economy's long-term weakness has become increasingly prominent. As China enters a “new normal” stage of economic growth, the real investment rate drops, non-financial enterprises continuously allocate resources to the shadow banking system. The financial economy becomes increasingly divorced from reality. This leads us to the questions: will the shadow banking behavior of non-financial companies exacerbate the risk of stock price crash risk? How does the increase in economic policy uncertainty affect the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking activities and stock price crash risk?This article uses non-financial listed companies' data from 2007 to 2017 and conducts empirical analysis to answer this question. The study finds that companies engaged in high-leverage, high-risk shadow banking business exacerbate stock crash risk. This effect is only pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises and low social trust regions. The increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty positively impacts the relationship between non-financial companies' shadow banking business and stock price crash risk. The theoretical mechanism is as follows: the rise in economic policy uncertainty amplifies the positive relationship between shadow banking activities of non-financial companies and stock price crashes by increasing bank loans, investors' sensitivity to external information, risk cross-contagion, and inefficient investment mechanisms. Various robustness tests do not change the research conclusion. This paper has important theoretical and policy guidance significance for reviewing the existing diversified shadow banking system and preventing systemic risks.     

Financial integration,specialization, and systemic risk

This paper studies the implications of cross-border financial integration for financial stability when banks' loan portfolios adjust endogenously. Banks can be subject to sectoral and aggregate domestic shocks. After integration they can share these risks in a complete interbank market. When banks have a comparative advantage in providing credit to certain industries, financial integration may induce banks to specialize in lending. An enhanced concentration in lending does not necessarily increase risk, because a well-functioning interbank market allows to achieve the necessary diversification. This greater need for risk sharing, though, increases the risk of cross-border contagion and the likelihood of widespread banking crises. However, even though integration increases the risk of contagion it improves welfare if it permits banks to realize specialization benefits.     

中国金融体系的脆弱性与道德风险

道德风险行为就是当签约一方不完全承担风险后果时所采取的自身效用最大化的自私行为.中国金融体系存在严重的脆弱性,根本原因也在于道德风险.政府不仅对银行提供了担保,也认为证券市场"太大而不能失败".证券市场危机往往是金融危机的先行指标,随之而来的银行危机和货币危机将决定金融危机的深度和广度.中国金融体系的道德风险已经深入到最基层的代理人,其代价将是非常惨重的.     

Financial Integration and Economic Growth in the COMESA and SADC Regions

Abstract

This study used panel data methods to examine the relationship between financial integration and economic growth in the COMESA and SADC regions. Using Foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows as a share of GDP, Chinn-Ito index of financial openness and debt flows as measures of financial integration, the study found that the relationship between financial integration and growth is largely insignificant in the combined sample of COMESA and SADC regions. However, the relationship changes when the two regions are separated. Whereas two of the indicators of financial integration are significant in the COMESA region, only one indicator of financial integration is significant in the SADC region implying that financial integration is more important in the COMESA region than in the SADC region. The results support the growth retarding theories of financial globalization and the convergence hypothesis in the COMESA region while the neoclassical trade theories find strong support in the SADC region. These results imply, first, that financial integration has different growth effects for different regional groupings and thus integration policies should not be universally applied. Second, these results imply that further enhancement of trade integration policies offer more promising outcomes for economic growth in the SADC region than financial integration policies while the converse is true for the COMESA region.     

Chicago Plan und Vollgeld als Alternative zum Kreditgeld: ein Weg zu stetigem Wachstum?

One drawback of our current credit economy is that commercial banks could potentially make too many loans. The supporters of full reserve banking and positive money therefore claim that the abolition of commercial bank money creation would lead to fewer financial crises. This paper argues that the market would bypass any lending regulations by creating its own money substitutes. Such a reform does not take into account the relationship between saving and investing in a growing monetary economy, abandons the benefits that commercial banks have in financing corporate investments, and is harmful for economic growth. As an alternative approach, further macroprudential instruments are suggested.     

金融危机理论演进与发展研究

随着我国金融开放的深度和广度的不断提高,旧有风险进一步暴露,新的风险进一步产生。我国经济受全球经济波动的影响越来越大,发生金融危机的可能性也在增大。由于金融危机的最大特征就是货币的急剧贬值,关于货币危机的研究也最为成熟,目前已形成四代理论模型。而银行业危机理论和外债危机理论的研究比较分散,还没有形成像货币危机理论那样完善的体系。     

Fast but fragile: British restructuring for foreign direct investment in a global era

In the ‘globalization’ debates of the early 1990s, the Anglo-American practices of rapid restructuring to achieve ‘attractiveness’ to foreign direct investment tended to be presented as the universal panacea for dealing with the pressures of global change. However, the East Asian economic crises of the late 1990s have precipitated a widespread questioning, both of the export-oriented ‘Asian model’ of development, and of the possible contagion spreading to the western financial market and ‘FDI attracting’ western states. This article considers the ‘fast but fragile’ nature of Anglo-Saxon style restructuring in the light of the political-economic and social crises experienced by East Asian state-societies. The discussion focuses specifically on the British approach to restructuring for FDI, arguing that this reflects and embodies both a distinctive set of state-societal relations, and a distinctive understanding of what the process of globalization implies for these relations.     

What lies beneath the euro's effect on financial integration? Currency risk, legal harmonization, or trade?

Although recent research shows that the euro has spurred cross-border financial integration, the exact mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate the underlying channels of the euro's effect on financial integration using data on bilateral banking linkages among twenty industrial countries in the past thirty years. We also construct a dataset that records the timing of legislative-regulatory harmonization policies in financial services across the European Union. We find that the euro's impact on financial integration is primarily driven by eliminating the currency risk. Legislative-regulatory convergence has also contributed to the spur of cross-border financial transactions. Trade in goods, while highly correlated with bilateral financial activities, does not play a key role in explaining the euro's positive effect on financial integration.     

Financial integration and banking crisis. A critical analysis of restrictions on capital flows

We investigate the effect of financial integration on a banking crisis. In contrast to existing works, we allow for capital restrictions while studying the impact of financial integration on a banking crisis. Using firm-level lending and borrowing information in the global market of syndicated loans; we generate aggregate measures of financial integration and examine how countries with capital flow restrictions thrive in the wake of a banking crisis. We concentrate on basic network measures of integration for a panel of 62 countries that allow for capital restriction at any time within the sample period. Financial integration increases the incidence of a banking crisis, and capital restrictions worsen a banking crisis. However, capital restrictions reduce the negative impact of financial integration on the incidence of a banking crisis. Thus, financial integration becomes beneficial when countries allow for some forms of capital control.     

The impact of mergers in banking : Evidence from a nationwide sample of federally chartered banks

Spurred by deregulation, cost, and risk factors, commercial bank mergers have accelerated sharply in recent years. Many banks appear to be positioning themselves for the advent of interstate banking through holding company or reciprocal branching arrangements. Yet, the performance effects of mergers among operating U.S. banks (as opposed to holding company acquisitions) have been examined both infrequently and inconclusively. This study focuses upon the characteristics and performance effects of national bank mergers occurring during the 1970–1980 period. Acquiring national banks were found to have lower operating efficiency and productivity than nonmerging banks and their profitability did not increase following the mergers, but credit availability, productivity, loan losses, deposit service charges, and interest-rate risk did rise. Frequency of merger activity did not significantly influence bank profitability or growth, but did augment stockholder risks and increase business and real-estate credit. In the aggregate, national bank mergers appeared to result neither in significant service benefits nor in significant service costs to the public.Spurred by deregulation of the industry, rising cost pressures, and increased operating risk, merger transactions among U.S. banks have soared in recent years. During the 1982–1986 period, for example, banking led all other industries in the number of consummated mergers and consistently was among the ten leading U.S. industries in the estimated market value of merger agreements. Moreover, the recent upsurge in reciprocal interstate banking agreements and proposals for fully legalized interstate banking hold out the prospect for a further acceleration in bank merger transactions in the years ahead. In view of the fact that legislation in more than 30 states now permits some form of interstate banking by merger or de novo entry and a June 1985 ruling of the U.S. Supreme Court has legitimized regional banking compacts, the public and private impact of bank mergers becomes of much greater importance as a research focus.Despite the magnitude of recent bank merger transactions and their implications for the public, the research literature in this area is surprisingly meager and often contradictory. This article is an attempt to focus more sharply on recent research findings, provide additional evidence concerning the effects of mergers on the financial performance of banks, and assess their impact on the public's interest in an adequate supply of financial services.     

Do types of foreign capital matter for income equality?

We investigate the link between financial integration and income inequality, suggesting that different channels of financial integration have contrasting distributional effects. Using an unbalanced panel of 65 countries from 1992 to 2015 and employing dynamic panel data methods, we find that greater financial integration through debt-creating capital increases income inequality compared to equity-type capital. Furthermore, a larger share of direct investment in financial integration is associated with lower income inequality; the converse is true for loans and credit, while the share of portfolio investment has no significant effect when considered as a whole. Evidence also shows that increased financial integration and trade is beneficial for reducing the income inequality of emerging economies.     

Remittances,investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Several studies have examined the impact of remittances on economic growth, yet the results remain largely inconclusive. I present an analysis of the relationship between remittances and per capita growth, and investigate whether the impact of remittances on growth is through capital accumulation or other mechanisms. Using data for sub-Saharan African countries and dynamic empirical models, I find that there is a positive relationship between remittances and growth, as well as a positive interaction effect between remittances and financial depth on growth. The findings also reveal threshold values for two main indicators of financial development, above which the total effect of remittances on growth is positive. The results further provide evidence for the existence of an investment channel through which remittances affect growth, and indirect evidence that remittances contribute towards a stable macroeconomic environment, and hence, growth, through a consumption smoothing effect.     

How managers in the financial services industry ensure financial performance

With the wide prevalence of the balanced scorecard, this study develops and empirically tests a model examining the relations between the customer perspective (relationship bonding tactics, perceived relationship investment, customer satisfaction, trust, commitment and customer behavioural loyalty) and the financial perspective (financial performance). A cross-departmental study in the financial services industry was conducted based on three consumer samples (department of Loans, Deposits, and Credit Cards) drawn from XYZ bank, one of the most famous banks providing merchant banking services in Taiwan. The results show that the customer perspective does have positively significant effects on financial performance, as proposed by the BSC (Balanced Scorecard) and SPC (Service Profit Chain). In addition, the findings suggest that customers purchase financial services according to their perceived relationship to investment retailers, with corresponding bonding tactics, which results in different levels of customer satisfaction and behavioural sequences, and is important in reinforcing customers' trust, commitment, repurchase intentions and corporate financial performance.     

银行体系、股票市场与固定资产投资——基于三元向量自回归模型的格兰杰因果关系检验

通过把固定资产投资、金融发展和金融结构变量设定为向量自回归模型的三个内生变量,采用格兰杰因果关系检验实证研究了金融发展、金融结构与固定资产投资的因果关系。结果表明:(1)金融发展主动刺激固定资产投资增加,而不是被动跟随投资的增加而发展;(2)仅仅是银行体系的发展具有主动刺激投资增加的功能,股票市场的发展并不具有这个功能;(3)金融结构和投资在格兰杰意义上并不存在因果关系,"金融服务观点"更适合中国金融的现实。     

新疆金融与经济相关性实证研究

通过对新疆1990-2008年时间序列数据单位根检验,验证金融机构存贷款比率、城乡居民储蓄存款余额、国有固定投资和非国有固定资产投资与经济增长四者之间的Granger因果关系。研究表明,金融不是经济增长的Granger成因,但两者之间相协调,产生协同效应。研究进一步发现,新疆经济增长没能有效地带动金融发展,金融发展滞后于经济增长。     

Japanese trade unions at the crossroads: dilemmas and opportunities created by globalization

Japanese trade unions have contributed much to the economic stability and success of Japanese enterprises. Globalization has, however, placed substantial pressure on the Japanese industrial relations system and, in turn, upon the enterprise union system. Not all changes can be directly attributed to globalization. We contend, however, that the success of Japanese firms, both in exports and in overseas production, has made the Japanese economy reliant on a strong world economy. Economic downturns that have been witnessed in a number of countries in 1990s have weakened the demand for Japanese export products. This, in combination with the Japanese banking and financial crises, has created pressure for an overhaul of employment and human resource management systems. This article examines these pressures and the response by trade unions.