浅析金融发展对国际贸易的影响

随着我国改革开放的深入,金融发展极大地促进了我国市场经济的飞速发展。然而与此同时,随着市场的不断开放,国际贸易不但将中国带向了世界贸易大环境中,也同时将影响经济波动的国际因素传导到了国内。国际贸易是一把双刃剑,随着全球经济的发展和壮大,金融发展对国际贸易的促进作用所带来的利益总体上是要远大于经济波动所带来的冲击的。金融发展可以提高资本积累,促进技术创新,本文基于理论分析和中国经济发展数据,论证和分析金融发展对中国国际贸易的重大影响。     

基于小型开放经济RBC模型的中国经济波动模拟分析

以随机动态一般均衡模型作为基本分析框架,建立一个具有投资组合调整成本的小型开放经济实际经济周期(RBC)模型,在模型参数校准的基础上分析模型对中国经济波动典型化事实的模拟能力和方差分解效应,结果表明:小型开放经济RBC模型平均可以模拟大约80%以上的中国经济波动;技术冲击是造成中国产出和就业波动的主要因素。     

重大风险事件下全球股票市场风险传染效应研究

文章利用前沿的Elastic Net-VAR模型，考察在不同重大风险事件背景下全球股票市场的风险传染效应，并结合正交分解法和MQ贡献度指标，分析比较实体经济、市场预期、经济政策与跨市场传染等因素对全球股票市场风险传染效应的异质性影响。研究结论如下：在重大风险事件的冲击下，全球股票市场风险网络关联度更紧密，风险传染的地理集聚效应更显著，同时，资本开放水平较高的发达市场对新兴市场的风险输出能力明显增强；全球股票市场风险传染总效应在新冠疫情时期达到历史峰值，且全球股票市场隐含波动性对该峰值的形成具有前瞻性；实体经济因素在国际金融危机时期和欧债危机时期贡献度最高，市场预期因素在正常时期和中美贸易摩擦时期影响最大，经济政策与跨市场传染因素在新冠疫情时期影响最大。     

国际金融危机对中国房地产经济的影响及对策研究

由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机,是改革开放以来中国所遭受的最严重的外部经济冲击,经济增速下滑已经成为中国当前经济运行中的主要矛盾。在阐述国际金融危机传染机制的基础上,具体分析这次国际金融危机给中国房地产经济发展所带来的挑战与机遇,据此提出中国应对国际金融危机的措施。     

国际贸易冲击与中国经济的周期波动

国际经济波动对我国经济周期的影响主要是通过国际贸易这个渠道实现的,本文在对我国对外贸易波动的特征及与经济周期相关性进行分析的基础之上,通过国际贸易乘数效应具体分析了国际贸易冲击对经济周期波动的影响,其结论表明国际贸易冲击对我国的经济周期波动产生了重要的作用和影响,出口每波动1%,会引发GDP波动0.25个百分点左右,随着我国对外贸易的快速增长,贸易波动对宏观经济的影响会进一步增加。     

服务贸易能平缓经济冲击吗——基于美国经济波动跨国传导的研究

服务贸易在经济波动跨国传递中的冲击分解为需求冲击、供给冲击和名义冲击后,并运用美国与各东道国的双边服务贸易数据进行考察。结果发现:服务贸易占总贸易额的比例以及东道国对服务贸易的开放程度对于服务贸易是否可以成为经济波动的跨国传导机制至关重要;服务贸易对东道国的需求冲击效应(反向冲击)占了主导地位,明显大于供给冲击(正向冲击)与名义冲击(正向冲击)效应的总和;服务贸易对东道国经济的净冲击方向与其他经济波动传导机制的冲击方向刚好相反,大小基本相同,而服务贸易冲击相对滞后。据此,可充分发挥服务贸易的逆向冲击作用,构筑缓和外部经济冲击的服务贸易"稳定器"政策。     

后次贷危机时期官方支持的贸易融资之国际协调与监管

贸易融资作为解决付款信用的重要手段,在2008年美国次贷危机引发的金融危机之背景下,出现巨额缺口,严重威胁发达国家和发展中家的经济复苏进程,而私人部门和国际贸易合同主体提供的贸易融资仅是杯水车薪。国际社会针对发展中国家提供的贸易融资的支持之多边和区域努力,以及发达国家和地区在已有的融资安排基础上的调整,为贸易融资的国际协调提供了可能性。世界贸易组织的有关规定则为这种国际协调提供了监管机制。中国作为世贸组织成员,在金融危机背景下,应积极响应贸易融资的国际协调与监管,以促进本国国际贸易的健康发展。     

政策不确定性是中国经济波动的主要因素吗——基于混合识别法的创新实证研究

为量化分析经济政策不确定性对我国宏观经济波动的影响,本文在一个基于标准宏观经济理论的SVAR模型中,构建了一种由常规符号约束条件和特定零约束条件相结合的混合识别法,以同时识别出政策不确定性冲击和需求冲击、供给冲击、货币政策冲击等三种传统结构冲击.研究发现:(1)经济政策不确定性冲击并不是中国经济波动的主要因素,但它表现出类似于负向需求冲击的特征,且呈现通胀效应强于产出效应的中国特色;(2)样本期内,需求冲击是驱动中国经济波动的首要因素,供给冲击次之;(3)供给冲击是引致价格水平上涨的主要原因,货币冲击起到“推波助澜”的作用,而政策不确定性冲击则抑制了价格水平的进一步上升.本文研究为有关经济政策不确定性的宏观经济效应讨论提供了来自最大发展中国家的经验证据,也为“宏观经济政策要稳”的政策基调提供了支持.     

逆全球化压力下贸易冲击的经济波动压力测试——基于产业关联理论

逆全球化背景下,外部冲击对经济平稳性的影响日益受到关注,并成为重要议题。贸易冲击是外部冲击最直接和直观的测度方式,也是导致外向型经济体产出波动的重要因素。文章基于产业关联理论构建动态Leontief模型,并结合中国42个产业的实证数据,采用数值模拟方法分析进出口贸易冲击通过产业关联对经济波动的压力传导机制。研究发现：出口贸易冲击通过直接拉动效应、间接拉动和推动效应对经济波动造成压力,且该压力通过产业间关联扩大;进口贸易冲击通过进口替代产业发展反向拉动了经济增长。这进一步表明中国经济具有韧性,能够承受一定程度的外部波动压力,“双循环”新发展格局已逐步呈现,应在关键领域的重点产业找准施策发力点。     

推动利率市场化的政策建议

近几年，我国利率市场机制建设取得了不少进展，但从目前利率形成机制和管理体制来看，利率还未充分发挥价格信号的作用，无法正确引导资源合理流动，利率机制亟需实现市场化。我国在进行市场经济体制建设的同时，也在加快融入全球经济的步伐，经济形势日益显示出开放经济的特征。随着加入ＷＴＯ的临近，利率管制和汇率固定已成为发挥宏观经济政策效果，促进经济增长的障碍。促进利率市场化已成为目前急迫的任务。 开放条件下利率管制的弊端 １．开放条件下，利率管制易使内外部经济失衡。如果资本的国际流动是完全自由的，极小的利率差也会…     

Explaining business cycles in small open economies: ‘How much do world prices matter?’

This paper analyzes the role of world price shocks - fluctuations in the prices of capital, intermediate, and primary goods, and in the world real interest rate - in the generation and propagation of business cycles in small open developing countries. I construct a stochastic dynamic multi-sector small open economy model. The model is a variant of the specific-factors model and reflects the major structural characteristics of developing economies. I utilize variance decomposition methods to quantitatively evaluate the impact of world price shocks. The results indicate that world price shocks account for a significant fraction of business cycle variability in developing countries.     

Understanding the evolution of world business cycles

This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during the period 1960–2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, and investment) of the G-7 countries. We then quantify the relative importance of the common and country components in explaining comovement in each observable aggregate over three distinct time periods: the Bretton Woods (BW) period (1960:1–1972:2), the period of common shocks (1972:3–1986:2), and the globalization period (1986:3–2003:4). The results indicate that the common (G-7) factor explains, on average, a larger fraction of output, consumption and investment volatility in the globalization period than it does in the BW period.     

Business Cycles Synchronicity and Income Levels: Has Globalisation Brought us Closer Than Ever?

Research on business cycle linkages shows a tendency to model countries of relatively the same income levels jointly. However, the issue of whether these countries move along the same business cycles has not been formally investigated in the literature. In this paper, we take this approach and investigate whether each group of countries follows its own dynamics and is therefore subjected to the same business cycle and whether these cycles are independent of each other across income groups. Results indicate that high income per capita countries (HICs) tend to be guided by stronger similarity in business cycles than countries in the middle (MICs) and low income (LICs) groups. In search for an explanation of the business cycles synchronicity observed, panel data analysis was explored. The results from the robust fixed effects estimation show neither trade openness nor shocks to consumption underlie international business cycle synchronization, but rather shocks to oil prices.     

Macroeconomic fluctuations in the Eastern Caribbean: The role of climatic and external shocks

This article develops country-specific vector autoregressive (VAR) models with block exogeneity restrictions to analyze how exogenous factors affect business cycles in the Eastern Caribbean. It finds that external shocks play a key role, explaining more than half of macroeconomic fluctuations in the region. Domestic business cycles are especially vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions, with a natural disaster leading to an immediate and significant fall in output – but the effects do not appear to be persistent. Oil price and external demand shocks also contribute significantly to domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. An increase in oil prices (external demand) is contractionary (expansionary), and the effects dissipate up to three years after the shock.     

The Chinese business system and its authoriliberal economic model

China's position as one of the most powerful nations in the world is undisputed. However, in an evolving landscape, China's utilization of a path-dependent business system may hinder the ability of the country's institutions to undergo necessary change, which will have important implications for international business literature. Through business system theory, empirical evidence, and a mixed methods approach, we discuss China's business system explaining how the system may impair sustainable growth and the transformation required by a less dependent industrial society. Our research suggests that the Chinese business system is still very arrested due to its recent past, and the Chinese Communist Party has only partial interest in improving some of the most important bases for the development of modern enterprises, even if fostering a somewhat liberal economic approach. Since similar political (authoritarian) and economic (liberal) approaches are found elsewhere, we theorize on what we called an authoriliberal economic approach.     

信心、预期和中国经济周期波动

有关文献大多将预期视为不可观测的潜变量,本文尝试考察预期的可观测性。首先采用混频时变DFM方法估计了中国的潜在产出,以代表经济基本面,发现中国经济在2008年金融危机前就开始下行。接着构建了一个不完全信息SVAR模型,基于动态识别方法估计预期冲击和噪声冲击的影响。研究发现:消费者信心指数“错误”预期主要宏观变量的变化;相较而言,商业信心指数是更好的预期指标,但包含噪声成分。以商业信心指数为预期变量,预期冲击对主要宏观变量形成持久的正向效应,预期冲击解释了潜在产出变化的60%,解释了GDP变化的55%;噪声冲击对宏观变量具有正向“驼峰状”影响,对GDP的短期解释力超过8%。消费者信心指数表现不佳可能源于消费和宏观经济的脱节。本文的基本结论在大数据集、替代指标、基本面检验以及其他识别方式下依然成立。     

Identifying macro-determinants of remittance flows to a developing country: The case of Uganda

This paper employs minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) unit root tests for endogenous structural breaks combined with ARCH and GARCH models to investigate how key macrovariables impact diaspora remittances. Since remittances can reverse-cause exchange rate movements and domestic income, we use changes in the world price of oil denominated in U.S. dollars to proxy movements in the Uganda shilling nominal effective exchange rate. To control for endogenous bias between remittances and income, we use rainfall shocks as proxies for income shocks in a non-oil-producing developing economy dominated by agricultural sector and its related activities. In addition, large movements in oil price and rainfall shocks typically cause large supply shocks that can significantly impact size of remittance inflows. We control for interest rate differential, political business cycles and seasonality. Results indicate that accounting for structural change in intercepts (levels) and slopes (trends) of key macroeconomic determinants of remittances around their major structural break points significantly increases their explanatory power. In particular, positive (negative) innovations in income and depreciation (appreciation) in the currency of a recipient developing country are negatively (positively) correlated with remittance inflows. These results are robust across different model specifications.     

Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?

This paper attempts to disentangle the intricate relation linking the world interest rate, country spreads, and emerging-market fundamentals. It does so by using a methodology that combines empirical and theoretical elements. The main findings are: (1) US interest rate shocks explain about 20% of movements in aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) Country spread shocks explain about 12% of business cycles in emerging economies. (3) In response to an increase in US interest rates, country spreads first fall and then display a large, delayed overshooting; (4) US-interest-rate shocks affect domestic variables mostly through their effects on country spreads; (5) The feedback from emerging-market fundamentals to country spreads significantly exacerbates business-cycle fluctuations.     

On the Optimality of a GCC Monetary Union: Structural VAR,Common Trends,and Common Cycles Evidence

The suitability of the proposed monetary union among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is examined. The authors identify the underlying structural shocks that these economies are subject to and assess the extent to which the shocks are symmetric. Alternatively, the authors test for common trends and common business cycles among the GCC economies. They find that while the transitory demand shocks are typically symmetric, the permanent supply shocks are asymmetric. Furthermore, they do not find synchronous long‐run and short‐run movements in output. Despite the progress that has been made in terms of integration, the findings indicate that the conditions for forming a GCC monetary union have not as yet been met.     

企业腐败动机与“最优”腐败程度实证研究

对于企业向官员行贿动机的解释主要有两种相反的观点,一是企业为了获取政府帮助而主动行贿,二是企业在威胁逼迫条件下的被动行贿。文章从企业在应对政府和应对市场两项事务间的权衡出发,构建企业绩效与腐败强度间的二项式回归模型,通过与传统线性回归模型的比较,发现企业腐败是一种主动行为,腐败的目的是为了构建政治关系以获取相应回报。运用世界银行企业调查数据,二次项回归模型显示出绩效与腐败强度间显著的倒U型曲线关系,文章得出了企业的“最优”腐败程度并对其政策含义进行了解释。