Cyclical wage movements in emerging markets compared to developed economies: a general equilibrium comment

I examine distinct cyclical properties of labor markets in emerging economies compared to developed ones from a general equilibrium perspective. The evidence in emerging economies shows that (1) wages are more volatile than income, while (2) employment is less volatile and (3) less pro-cyclical than in developed economies. I use a standard open-economy model to study the implications of wealth effects on labor market dynamics in both emerging and developed economies simultaneously. In contrast to the (partial equilibrium) results of the small open economy (SOE) model, I show that in general equilibrium, strong wealth effects on labor supply in emerging economies are necessary to rationalize the evidence. The model is also consistent with empirical regularities of exchange rate fluctuations, namely (1) excess volatility of real exchange rates, and (2) the negative co-movement between the real exchange rate and relative consumption.     

International competitiveness,job creation and job destruction—An establishment-level study of German job flows

This study investigates the impact of international competitiveness on net employment, job creation, job destruction, and gross job flows for a representative sample of German establishments from 1993 to 2005. We find a statistically significant but economically small effect of real exchange rate shocks on employment, comparable to the one found in studies for the United States. However, contrary to the United States, the employment adjustment (among surviving firms) operates mainly through the job creation rather than the job destruction rate. Job destruction occurs essentially through discrete events such as restructuring, outsourcing and bankruptcy. We suggest that these findings are consistent with a highly regulated labor market, in which smooth adjustment is costly and possibly delayed.     

汇率波动对机电行业就业影响的分析

本文利用2001-2010年我国机电行业的203家上市公司的面板数据以及2000-2010年我国机电行业各子行业的季度数据,分别从微观层面和行业层面实证研究汇率变动对我国机电行业就业的影响。研究发现,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电行业就业的负面影响的短期效应明显低于长期效应,且具有明显滞后性,表明更富弹性的汇率制度有利于缓解汇率波动对就业的影响。同时机电企业规模经济的发展、产品附加值的提升对就业有显著支撑作用,因此在人民币汇率日益走高的背景下,机电行业更应加速行业资源整合和产业升级。     

中国存在B-S难题吗?

目前中国依赖投资和出口驱动的经济发展模式已经引发诸多弊端和不良效应,在开放条件下,汇率变动对消费影响越来越大,居民消费变动的传递也会影响实际汇率,对中国的经验证据发现,实际汇率升值会抑制当前消费,随着消费增长率的增加,汇率被低估的概率减少,验证了B-S难题(消费—实际汇率悖论)在中国成立。     

服务外包与国内就业:基于全球15个国家25个行业的实证分析

利用2000年和2005年的投入产出表数据,计算了世界15个主要发包国25个行业的服务外包率,并建立计量模型实证分析了服务外包对发包国国内就业的影响。研究结果表明,从总体上看,服务外包对发包国国内就业的影响方向是不确定的,正负效应主要取决于服务外包量的大小、外包对国内就业的替代效应和规模效应以及外包环节的类型;对绝大多数国家而言,服务外包的就业效应是不显著的,仅是影响国内就业的弱因素,工资水平和产业规模是影响各国国内就业的重要因素。     

人民币实际汇率调整对中国制造业就业影响——来自1998~2007年细分行业数据的证据

本文首次利用498个4位代码的细分行业数据研究汇率调整对中国制造业就业的影响。在扩展汇率调整对就业市场影响理论分析框架的基础上,本文探讨了人民币实际汇率调整从要素密集度对中国城市制造业就业市场的传导渠道及其影响因素;并通过1998~2007年工业企业数据以及海关贸易数据构建人民币在行业层面的实际有效汇率指数,发现人民币实际汇率调整会对中国城市行业就业市场产生显著且重要的影响。研究表明:初级产品和劳动资本密集型行业的实际汇率调整对就业影响估计的显著性明显高于技术密集型行业,3类行业的就业弹性分别为0.423、0.327、0.309;相对私营行业而言,外商投资行业的净就业水平对于实际汇率调整更为敏感。     

跨国外包对我国制造业就业的影响效应

本文运用我国1996—2008年28个制造业面板数据检验了参与跨国外包对制造业就业的影响。研究发现,跨国外包促进了我国制造业就业增长,而且服务外包对就业拉动作用大于制造外包。跨国外包对制造业就业规模正面影响存在行业差异,其中对高技术产业影响程度最大,其次是中等技术行业,最后是低技术行业。不论服务外包还是制造外包都不能显著地提升我国制造业的就业结构。实证结果所蕴含的政策启示在于:我国不能仅仅依靠参与跨国外包缓解就业压力,更为重要的是通过加快产业转型与升级以切实提高本土产业对劳动力的吸纳能力。     

承接跨国公司服务外包就业效应分析

服务外包是当前以跨国公司为主体的国际服务业转移的新形式，服务外包的产生对接包国经济和社会都产生了深远的影响。服务外包对接包国的就业促进效应主要体现在就业数量的增长、就业结构的改善和服务业劳动生产效率的提高等方面。承接跨国公司服务外包不仅有利予扩大我国服务业就业数量，而且对国民经济其他部门的就业也具有带动作用；对我国就业结构的改善有很强的促进作用；同时，提高了生产服务业部门的劳动生产效率。从而提高整个服务行业的劳动生产效率。从长期看，发展服务外包产业是改善我国产业结构,扩大就业的根本途径。     

Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate

Welfare gains from trade are reduced by adjustment costs associated with factor reallocation, but most studies of the effects of trade on labor markets focus only on net employment change. This paper takes a step toward identifying trade-related adjustment costs by estimating the effects of real exchange rates on labor reallocation using a new model of gross job creation and destruction applied to detailed U.S. manufacturing industries between 1973 and 1993. Trend real exchange rates significantly affect job reallocation but not net employment. Cyclical real exchange rates significantly affect net employment through job destruction only.     

基于VAR模型的人民币有效汇率就业效应

基于向量自回归模型,对人民币实际有效汇率的就业效应进行实证分析,结果表明就业量和人民币实际有效汇率之间存在长期均衡关系,长期而言人民币实际有效汇率上升1%就业量将下降0.1821%。因此,人民币实际有效汇率的波动率对就业量仅存在微弱的负面影响。     

Real exchange rates,dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America

We use a panel dataset on industrial employment and trade for 9 Latin American countries for which liability dollarization data at the industrial level is available. We test whether real exchange rate fluctuations have a significant impact on employment, and analyse whether the impact varies with the degree of trade openness and liability dollarization. Econometric evidence supports the view that real exchange rate depreciations can impact employment growth positively, but this effect is reversed as liability dollarization increases. In industries with high liability dollarization, the overall impact of a real exchange rate depreciation can be negative.     

关于发展壮大哈尔滨市服务外包产业的研究

服务外包产业是现代高端服务业的重要组成部分,具有能源消耗少、无污染、知识含量高、吸纳就业能力强等特点,是真正意义上的绿色产业,发展潜力巨大。本文对哈尔滨市服务外包发展潜力进行了剖析,提出了以黑龙江省服务外包产业联盟为依托,加速整合服务外包资源,建立服务外包示范园区和服务外包人才实训基地,把哈尔滨打造成东北亚地区BPO中心的总体思路和具体措施。     

On the Causes and Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana

What drives exchange rate volatility, and what are the effects of fluctuations in the exchange rate on economic growth in Ghana? These questions are the subject matter of this study. The results showed that while shocks to the exchange rate are mean reverting, misalignments tend to correct very sluggishly, with painful consequences in the short run as economic agents recalibrate their consumption and investment choices. About three quarters of shocks to the real exchange rate are self-driven, and the remaining one quarter or so is attributed to factors such as government expenditure and money supply growth, terms of trade and output shocks. Excessive volatility is found to be detrimental to economic growth; however, this is only up to a point as growth-enhancing effect can also emanate from innovation, and more efficient resource allocation.     

Consumption and exchange rate uncertainty: Evidence from selected Asian countries

We set out to assess the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on real consumption in selected Asian countries. Consumption influences business cycles, which in turn shape short-run monetary policy decisions. Hence, understanding factors driving consumption is appealing to policymakers. To date, few studies have analysed the effects of uncertainty on consumption. The available ones generally focus on the long-run effects, in spite of the fact that the short-run persistence and adjustments to equilibrium are equally relevant. Our study takes these limitations seriously by distinguishing the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty on consumption. Using a flexible dynamic panel data technique that allows long-run effects to be homogeneous and the short-run effects to be heterogeneous, we find that uncertainty impedes consumption in the long run. In the short run, however, the effects are immaterial. This evidence remains robust to the measure of uncertainty, asymmetric uncertainty, inflation and the global financial crisis of 2008. By decomposing uncertainty into its temporary and permanent components, we find that the latter have a stronger effect on consumption in the long run than the former. Although both components demand policy attention, the evidence suggests that policymakers should be more concerned with permanent uncertainty.     

Internal and external gains from international outsourcing

This article examines the implications of international outsourcing in the Heckscher–Ohlin model of general equilibrium by explicitly expounding the external effects to the outsourcing firms. With its focus paced on the labor-augmenting effect of outsourcing, it shows that (a) the standard result of welfare-enhancing outsourcing always holds in the absence of external effects, and (b) in the presence of external effects, however, (i) outsourcing may be welfare-reducing for the outsourcing country; (ii) the effects of outsourcing on sectoral outputs, employment and factor prices depend on factor-intensity ranking, and the signs and the relative magnitudes of the sectoral returns to scale.     

Estimating the effect of the Internet on international trade

In this article, we study the effect of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) on the responsiveness of Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. We argue that, by opening the US and Canadian markets to Mexican goods, NAFTA made it easier for domestic producers to take advantage of the opportunities brought by the depreciation of the real exchange rate. To identify this mechanism, we use plant-level data and compare the behavior of employment, production and investment after two big real exchange rate shocks: the first observed in the mid-1980s, the second the Tequila Crisis of 1994–1995. The evidence indicates that after passage of NAFTA exporting firms exhibited higher growth rates of employment, sales and investment vis-à-vis non-exporters. We confirm our results by analyzing the behavior of a control group of firms, that had complete access to the US market during both devaluations, and we show that they responded in a similar way in both events. Finally, we also provide direct evidence on the relationship between exports and tariff reductions brought by NAFTA. Our results support the view that NAFTA has allowed Mexican producers to respond more quickly to real exchange shocks.     

外包与生产率和就业:基于中国的实证

文章使用1997、2002和2007年的42部门投入产出表数据,计算了我国22个工业行业的外包比率,并以面板数据模型检验了外包对工业行业劳动力就业及外包对工业行业产出的影响。检验结果表明,材料品外包、服务外包的发展均有效地提升了我国工业行业生产率水平,但服务外包对工业行业生产率的促进效应要远远大于材料品外包,而外包对工业行业就业影响的分析结果是,服务外包对工业行业就业的影响为正效应并且影响显著,材料品外包对于工业行业就业的效应则效果不明显。     

发展国际服务外包 提升温州经济发展水平

贯彻落实科学发展观就是要从片面追求数量增长的经济发展方式转变到注重经济质量提升的经济发展方式上。服务外包产业具有信息技术承载度高、价值增值高、资源消耗低、污染排放小、吸纳就业多等产业特点,服务外包对GDP的贡献是来料加工的20倍,通过服务外包所获得的GDP增长是绿色增长。发展现代服务业,提高服务业比重和水平。积极承接国际服务外包,是加快现代服务业发展、优化经济结构、提升经济发展质量的一条重要途径。在温州市大力发展服务外包、离岸外包的背景下,为了建成"省级服务外包示范园区",辅助实现温州市提高服务外包总额、离岸服务外包总额和同比增长率的战略目标,温州要开展国际服务外包研究,充分引进和整合美国、日本、韩国等国际外包研究理论和国际外包企业资源,结合中国现行的政策和环境,为温州市发展离岸外包和服务外包所用。本文通过对温州国际服务外包发展战略的研究,对温州市的服务外包环境提出具有政策高度并且极具现实可行性的建议。     

Is there an optimal crawl?

This paper shows that optimal exchange rate policy can be defined in terms of either a long-run secular policy or a short-run stabilization policy. The rate of crawl which maximizes real per capita consumption is shown to often differ from the exchange rate movements produced under fixed or floating exchange rates. And the optimal program for dealing with short-run speculative capital flows will involve both discrete and gradual exchange rate changes. It is also argued that domestic monetary policy and exchange rate policy are not independent instruments.     

The adjustment mechanism in the Euro Area

This paper analyses the adjustment mechanism in the euro area prior to the crisis. Results show that the real exchange rate adjusted to redress cyclical divergences and that after monetary unification, real exchange rate dynamics became less reactive to country-specific shocks but also less persistent. Regulations affecting price and wage nominal flexibility and employment protection play a role in the adjustment mechanism. Indicators of product and labour regulations appear to matter for both the reaction of price competitiveness to cyclical divergences and for the inertia of competitiveness indicators.