浮动汇率制度下资本项目开放国际经验与启示

随着国际金融方面改革的深入,我国资本项目开放不断地面临新的环境和形势,汇率政策的变动就是其中之一。以更具弹性的浮动汇率制度为背景,分析其他国家在浮动汇率制度下开放资本项目的经验,总结出开放的条件和步骤的一般规律,并进一步得出对我国现实的政策启示,将有助于我国在今后的改革中有针对性地防范风险,也有助于我国稳步实现资本项目下的完全可兑换。     

The Current Account – Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon

The current account?–?interest rate relationship has been extensively investigated, but always assuming that it is linear. In this paper we examine the linearity versus nonlinearity issue with reference to this relationship in 11 OECD countries, and find overwhelming evidence in favour of nonlinearity. After testing alternative nonlinear specifications, we estimate a smooth transition regression model and a nonlinear VAR model. Finally, we provide a study of the innovation response analysis that shows adjustment behaviours of the two variables. The implications of the results are discussed.     

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度的互动协调分析

资本项目可兑换与汇率制度相互作用、相互协调.一方面,市场化汇率制度是资本项目可兑换的前提和基础;另一方面,资本项目可兑换决定均衡汇率,并促进汇率制度弹性化和市场化.随着中国经济不断发展和日益融入国际经济体系,中国应进一步开放资本项目,相应地逐步增大汇率制度的弹性空间,最终实现资本项目可兑换和浮动汇率制度.     

Twin deficit or twin divergence? Fiscal policy, current account, and real exchange rate in the U.S.

In spite of concerns about “twin deficits” (fiscal and the current account deficits) for the United States economy, empirical evidence suggests that “twin divergence” is a more usual feature of the historical data, i.e., when fiscal accounts worsen, the current account improves and vice versa. This paper empirically studies the effects of fiscal policy (government budget deficit shocks) on the current account and the real exchange rate, during the flexible exchange rate regime period. Based on VAR (Vector Auto-Regression) models, we identified “exogenous” fiscal policy shocks after controlling for business cycle effects on fiscal balances. In contrast to the predictions of most theoretical models, the U.S. results suggest that an expansionary fiscal policy shock, or a government budget deficit shock, improve the current account and depreciate the real exchange rate. Increases in private savings and declines in investment contribute to the current account improvement while a nominal exchange rate depreciation, as opposed to a relative price level change, is mainly responsible for the real exchange rate depreciation. The “twin divergence” of fiscal balances and current account balances is also explained by the prevalence of output shocks, i.e. output shocks — more than fiscal shocks — appear to drive the co-movements of the current account and the fiscal balance.     

Macroeconomic effect of capital controls as a safeguard against the capital inflow problem

Concerns that a rapid surge in capital inflow leads to loss of autonomy in macroeconomic policy, and that its reversal has significant negative effects on an economy, have motivated capital controls during the 1990s. Under a fixed exchange rate system without capital-account restrictions, a decrease in world nominal interest rates causes in a small open economy a deterioration in the current account, real exchange rate appreciation, and inflationary pressure, as pointed out by Calvo et al. (, ). This paper examines macroeconomic effects of capital-account restrictions as a policy response to the capital inflow problem under fixed exchange rates. Theoretical analysis shows that capital-account restrictions not only stem the capital inflow but also reverse the associated macroeconomic effects. The model implies that capital-account restrictions are effective measures against the capital inflow problem of emerging markets in the 1990s.     

中央银行最优目标下的均衡汇率区间研究——基于资本项目开放度约束

合理的均衡汇率不仅要考虑基本面的因素,更要与中央银行的货币政策最优目标相一致。基于开放经济模型,本文引入资本项目开放度的约束,在最优化中央银行福利函数的基础上得到人民币均衡汇率表达关系式。由于中央银行在通货膨胀目标与经济增长目标权重分配的外生性,合理的均衡汇率将以区间的形式存在。通过分析1999.3-2019.9的实际有效汇率与均衡汇率区间,发现:(1)中央银行货币政策目标权重的分配影响均衡汇率区间的边界;(2)滞后的资本项目开放导致汇率失衡,且不会被"汇改"和货币政策目标权重变化扭转;(3)过早的资本项目开放也会导致汇率失衡,但随着经济基本面增长和汇率制度完善,汇率逐渐向均衡汇率区间均值处收敛;(4)资本项目渐进式开放既有助于汇率合理均衡,也有助于提高央行货币政策目标调控区间和自主性。     

论国际金融市场的利率传导机制

当国际金融市场的利率与一国利率存在差距时,国际资本便会流入或流出,随之又会影响其他国家的资本供给和利率。由于利差的经常存在,国际游资数额巨大,利率差的传导渠道不容低估。从利率的流动性效应着手,运用开放经济条件下利率传导的基本原理及利率、汇率和通胀率之间的关联性,分析国际金融市场利率传导机制的表现,得出来自利率汇率平价机制的市场性传导在金融全球化过程中有力地影响着各国的利率水平,并且通过实际利率的变化影响经济运行步伐。     

我国经常项目收支平衡与经济增长——基于BPCG模型的实证分析

20世纪90年代初以来,我国经常项目中商品贸易持续顺差,服务贸易和投资收益账户却连年逆差,这种结构不利于我国经济的持续稳定增长。本文应用国际收支约束下经济增长模型(BPCG)及其扩展形式,实证分析了1982-2005年间我国经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率、商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率与实际增长率之间的差异,结论为经常项目平衡约束下的经济增长率比商品贸易收支平衡约束下的经济增长率要低0.5-1个百分点。     

论影响汇率的因素

在纸币流通条件下 ,外汇市场上实际汇率的形成是由外汇供求状况所决定的。在外汇供求的背后隐藏着更深层次的决定因素 ,其中有经济因素、政治因素、军事因素和心理预期因素等 ,且各种因素之间互相联系和制约。随着世界政治经济局势的变化 ,这些因素对汇率的影响也交替变化 ,而且同一因素在不同经济体、不同时间所产生的影响也不尽相同 ,因此 ,汇率变动是一个极其错综复杂的问题     

中国汇率制度改革的目标

为符合经济环境和对外贸易需要中国汇率制度已经经过几次变革。但随着中国经济的发展和世界其他国家贸易往来更加密切,减少不必要的贸易摩擦并且逐步实现金融自由化要求下改革中国现行的汇率制度,就显得更加迫切。因此在参考一些国家汇率制度改革和演变的基础上改革中国的现行汇率制度,实行汇率目标区将是我国金融改革过程中的一个现实、较优的选择。     

关于我国利率市场化若干问题的研究

实行利率市场化有利于增强我国银行对外资银行的竞争力,是我国金融体制改革的必然选择。研究利率市场化对我国宏观投资效益、存贷款先后次序安排及汇率的效应分析,有利于改进资金使用的宏观效益。我国是发展中国家,金融市场发育尚不完善,应选择渐近式实施利率市场化进程为宜。     

区域贸易协定的缔结降低了成员国的反倾销威胁吗——以中国为例

采用1999-2009年跨国面板数据,研究了中国缔结的几个区域贸易协定(RTAs)对成员国间反倾销的影响。结果表明,区域贸易协定的缔结强化了缔约国对其他成员国的反倾销申诉。由于与协定成员国的贸易结构相似、产品结构相同,区域贸易协定的缔结使得中国相对于其他成员国更容易遭遇缔约国的反倾销申诉。文章同时研究了经常项目收支状况、汇率以及GDP增长率对反倾销申诉的影响,结果表明:经常项目收支逆差、货币升值往往会加剧反倾销申诉,而GDP增长率对反倾销申诉无显著影响。本文的研究对于理解中国遭受反倾销的原因以及做好反倾销预警与应对机制具有一定的现实意义。     

中国当前的通货膨胀及采购方略

近年来,在我国当前的通货膨胀及采购方略中,我国经济从通货紧缩走出后呈加速状态,已进入通货膨胀周期。本轮通货膨胀有我国国内经济原因,也有明显的成本输入特征。所以,在通货膨胀周期里,进行何种采购的方略尤为重要。     

失衡中的人民币汇率改革

定性地分析了人民币升值面临的潜在恶性循环,并指出导致该恶性循环的根源在于国际、国内经济的失衡。如果不从根本上纠正这些失衡,人民币汇率升值的正效应将被抵消,中国经济将面临流动性过剩和通货紧缩的两难选择,甚至有可能重蹈日本覆辙。     

Rhetorics of saving–investment correlations and the international mobility of capital: A survey

This study surveys the literature on saving–investment (SI) correlations and international mobility of capital (IMC) generated over more than three decades since the 1980s. Several studies have shown the presence of paradoxically high SI correlations for the developed countries with observed high IMC, and low SI correlations for the developing countries with observed low IMC. The studies accounting for structural breaks in model parameters provide dominant support for the decrease in SI correlations and increase in IMC after the switch from fixed to flexible exchange rate regime and the removal of policy restrictions on capital flows. The intertemporal optimisation approach to current account and the open-economy growth and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models mainly provide theoretical predictions and suggest that it is possible to find high SI correlations in the wake of high IMC. The increases in international capital flows have been the natural corollary of the growth of international trade in goods and services and increases in foreign direct investment flows. It is these factors, rather than international trade in capital market securities (bonds and equities) driven by the diversification benefits of financial portfolios per se, that have been the key levers of international financial flows.     

商业银行贷款定价问题浅析

随着我国利率市场化改革的推进 ,商业银行贷款定价的自主权逐步扩大 ,贷款价格确定是否合理对商业银行经营战略的实施具有重要的现实意义。因此 ,贷款定价研究是商业银行战略发展中必须重视的问题。     

中国汇率、利率、物价等相关关系研究

在经济运行过程中汇率、利率和物价三者关系紧密、相互影响,对经济的运行具有重大的意义。汇率的低估会引发物价上升,而实际汇率又由物价所决定。利率的变化对即期和远期的汇率也会产生重大的影响。我国的通货膨胀不仅应当通过抬高利率来抑制,更重要的应该通过对人民币正确估值,合理变动人民币汇率来解决。