Cross-border production sharing and exchange-rate sensitivity of Mexico's trade balance

Increasing patterns of international trade occur in the form of cross-border production sharing – the dispersion of separate blocks of an integrated production process across different nations. In the case of ‘standard’ or ‘ordinary’ trade, imports are destined for use in the importing country, and exports are largely produced within the country. However, with production sharing, imported parts and components are destined for inclusion in the country's exports. A depreciation of a nation's currency raises its exports. At the same time, imported components become more expensive, which partly offsets the expansionary effect of the depreciation on exports. Using a simple theoretical framework, this paper shows that production networks lower the sensitivity of a country's trade balance to changes in exchange rates. The empirical examination finds Mexico's Maquiladora trade balance to be unresponsive to changes in both, its real effective as well as its real peso-dollar rates, while that for non-Maquiladora category is significantly responsive, in confirmation with the theorized hypothesis.     

Exports and governance: Is the Middle East and North Africa region different?

This paper aims to analyse whether better governance rewards economic performance and facilitates the integration of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region into the world economy. In comparison with other regions in the world economy, MENA countries suffer from important institutional deficiencies, which generate insecurity and difficult international transactions. Despite this fact, the relationship between trade and institutional quality in MENA countries remains unexplored. A gravity model of trade augmented with governance indicators is estimated for the exports of 19 MENA countries, their 189 trading partners and for all exporters in the period from 1996 to 2013. The main results indicate that improvements in five of the six governance indicators increase exports from MENA countries, whereas better governance in destination countries does not affect MENA exports. Instead, each of the six governance indicators used has a positive effect on bilateral trade for the entire sample of exporters (189). Moreover, the effect of country‐pair similarity in governance indicators suggests that a similar level of regulatory quality and rule of law in exporting and importing countries increases exports from MENA countries. Similarities in voice and accountability also foster exports for the average exporter, but not for MENA exporters.     

Trade deflection and trade depression

This is the first paper to empirically examine whether a country's use of an import restricting trade policy distorts a foreign country's exports to third markets. We first develop a theoretical model of worldwide trade in which the imposition of antidumping and safeguard tariffs, or “trade remedies,” by one country causes significant distortions in world trade flows. We then empirically test this model by investigating the effect of the United States' use of such import restrictions on Japanese exports of roughly 4800 products into 37 countries between 1992 and 2001. Our estimation yields evidence that US restrictions both deflect and depress Japanese export flows to third countries. Imposition of a US antidumping measure against Japan deflects trade, as the average antidumping duty on Japanese exports leads to a 5-7% increase in Japanese exports of the same product to the average third country market. The imposition of a US antidumping measure against a third country depresses trade, as the average US duty imposed on a third country leads to a 5-19% decrease in Japanese exports of that same product to the average third country's market. We also document the substantial variation in trade deflection and trade depression across different importing countries and exported products.     

The Trade Effects of the EU–Turkey Customs Union

In the present study we argue that the salient features of both the EU‐15 countries and Turkey are conducive to making the effects of the 1995 EU–Turkey customs union asymmetric among the incumbent EU countries. In order to support our argument we rely on a model in which trade involves the exchange of vertically differentiated products. This model generates the prediction that the more contiguous an incumbent country is to the joining country in terms of technological sophistication, the larger will be the crowding out of this country's exports to the other incumbent countries as a result of the CU expansion. Using a gravity model we estimate the effects of the customs union between Turkey and the EU‐15 by differentiating between exports from (a) lower‐technology EU‐15 countries (we term this group of countries ‘South’) to higher‐technology EU‐15 countries (the ‘North’), (b) North to South, (c) South to Turkey, (d) North to Turkey, and (e) Turkey to EU‐15. Our econometric results indicate that, in contrast to North's exports to the other EU‐15 countries (which have remained intact), the Southern countries’ exports to the other EU‐15 countries have declined as a result of the CU. Moreover, the extra penetration of the Turkish market by the EU‐15 countries has not been more favourable to the Southern group.     

出口退税的贸易效应研究 ——来自中国服装出口的经验评估

在我国历年出口退税政策调整中,服装产品退税率的调整频率和幅度在各行业中最为突出。以引力模型为基础,研究我国出口退税政策对服装出口的影响。实证结果表明,在控制贸易双方GDP、地理距离、货币相对购买力和国别特定因素条件下,出口退税政策调整对服装出口具有显著影响,提高出口退税率可以稳定或扩大出口,有效应对外需疲软。为消除出口骗税产生的虚假贸易数据的影响,以扣除贸易成本的进口国报告的进口额衡量我国出口贸易规模,实证结果再次印证,出口退税对服装出口有显著促进作用。     

技术贸易壁垒下中美纺织品贸易竞争力及影响因素研究

采用国际市场占有率、显性比较优势指数及贸易互补性指数分析了中美两国纺织品在国际市场中的竞争地位及各纺织品类贸易互补性强度,并将美国发布的纺织行业技术通报(TBT)作为技术变量纳入随机前沿引力模型,进一步实证分析中美纺织品贸易的影响因素。结果表明:中国纺织品国际竞争优势强于美国,尤其表现在纺织制成品类;出口角度看,两国在纺织制成品类上呈现显著贸易互补性,进口角度看,两国在纺织原料上具有较强互补性。在影响因素中,技术壁垒、进口国经济、出口国人口及两国距离负向抑制中美纺织品贸易,出口国经济、进口国人口及人均收入之差正向促进中美纺织贸易发展。     

Effects of the preference for environmental quality on the export competition between China and OECD countries

This study examines how importers’ preferences for environmentally friendly products influence the effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries to third markets. The effect of China’s export growth is systematically investigated using the theoretical gravity model, which assumes that importers’ environmental preferences are heterogeneous among countries. A new measure is also proposed to represent importers’ revealed preferences for environmental quality across countries. Panel data consisting of observations for 30 OECD exporting countries and 60 importing countries over the 2000–10 period confirm that the crowding‐out effect of China’s export growth on the exports of OECD countries observed in markets for consumption goods and the dampening effect observed in markets for intermediate goods are becoming weaker as the importer preference for environmental quality becomes stronger.     

我国大豆出口影响因素实证分析

我国种植大豆的历史悠久,总产量和出口量曾占世界市场份额的90%以上,与美国、巴西、阿根廷并列为世界四大大豆生产大国。基于引力模型,选取2008年我国大豆出口截面数据作为因变量,各国和各地区的GDP、人均GDP、我国与各国的的地理距离等数据作为自变量,实证分析了我国大豆出口的影响因素,证实了各进口国和地区的人均GDP与我国大豆出口呈正相关,进口国和地区的GDP和人均消费能力的增长在一定程度上有利于我国大豆的出口增长,而距离与我国大豆出口负相关。为提升我国大豆出口竞争力,应开拓市场,加强对外联系,增加对大豆的科研投入,减少大豆的生产成本,挖掘我国大豆的绿色能量。     

Task trade and employment patterns: The offshoring and onshoring of Brazilian firms

The present paper tackles the question whether firms in a middle-wage country offshore production to save labor costs or if they onshore tasks that were offshored from high-wage countries. To distinguish which is the empirically more relevant case, I analyze the effect of importing intermediate inputs on the labor composition using matched employer–employee data and information on trade transactions from the universe of Brazilian firms. Propensity score matching indicates that an intermediate import expansion at the extensive margin leads to employment growth, higher intensities in routine and non-routine manual tasks and an increased share of intermediates exports. These findings thus point out that Brazil's intermediate imports predominantly represent onshored tasks. This result holds regardless of whether intermediate imports from high- or low-wage countries are considered. In line with theoretical considerations, the data show that Brazil's comparative advantage is in medium-complex and routine manual intensive production stages.     

The Location Choices of Multinational Firms: The Role of Internationalisation Experience and Group Affiliation

This paper investigates whether location choices of multinational firms depend on their past export, import or Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) experience on foreign markets or the experience of other affiliated firms. Regardless of locations' characteristics, we find that exporting in a given country, and to a smaller extent importing from it, significantly increases the probability of investing in that particular country the following year. This preliminary exporting phase appears more important for firsttime investors. Moreover, location choices not only depend on the investor's own international experience, but also on the international experience of other affiliated firms: firms tend to invest in countries where the group already exports or owns a local affiliate. These last findings suggest the existence of coordinated strategies and/or information sharing between affiliated firms.     

虚拟水贸易在我国农产品贸易中的实证研究

本文简要介绍了当前国际虚拟水贸易的研究进展和农产品中虚拟水含量的计算方法,并对2000年至2002年我国农产品的虚拟水贸易量进行了研究与分析,就如何应用虚拟水战略来缓解我国水资源短缺和应注意的问题提出了若干政策性建议。     

The Emergence of Iran in the World Car Industry: An Estimation of its Export Potential

In the past 10 years Iran has been emerging as a major car producer in the world. However, due to delays in economic reforms, Iranian car exports have not increased as much as production. This paper presents a first estimation of the Iranian export potential in the car industry. Based on new theoretical developments of the gravity equation, an empirical bilateral trade model is proposed. It includes sectoral variables (car production, import tariffs), as well as other original variables, such as expectations and hysteresis. We then develop a dataset which includes the 40 major car‐exporting countries in the world, 34 importing countries, a 10‐year time period as well as four car production groups. The model is then estimated by using alternative panel data estimators, such as those of Hausman and Taylor and dynamic estimators as well as transformed variables estimators. Export potential is finally calculated from the residuals of the model. Results show that Iranian current car exports are about 100 times less than their fitted values. This indicates that there is a significant export potential for Iran, especially toward India, China, Russia, as well as smaller neighbours (Turkey, Pakistan, Central Asian countries). As a result, Iran could become the major auto supplier in the Middle East. However, this requires the completion and success of ongoing economic reforms.     

承诺补贴--对高新技术出口产业的一种市场进入扶持政策

发展中国家的出口产品结构现状表明其在一些高新技术出口产业上处于劣势：而从长期的动态的角度上看,鼓励这些产业的发展又是发展中国家优化本国出口产品结构的必由之路,通过模型分析我们发现,在一定条件下,发展中国家政府对本国企业承诺补贴使其净利润非负的市场进入扶持政策能达到预期的效果而补贴却无需兑现。当然此扶持政策有其自身固有的弊端．应慎重合作,同时应将最终眼光投向根本上提高本国高新技术出口产业的竞争力上。     

The regional trade dynamics of Turkey: a panel data gravity model

This paper analyzes the Turkish export and import flows with regard to regional clusters (RCs) and bilateral trade costs (BTCs) by using a panel data gravity model. We study the role of RCs and BTCs in two complementary parts: in the first part, we use an unbalanced panel data for 180 countries over the period 1960–2012, compiled from the DOTS database. We extend these estimations by running the data at four different time intervals, each representing different economic or political regimes in Turkey. In the second part, we repeat the same exercise at sectoral level for 176 countries over the period 1994–2010, using the BACI database. Aggregate estimates show that the gravity model is very effective in explaining the export and import flows of Turkey and that all close-by regions, including EU27, have a significant impact on trade flows of Turkey. We also find that the EU Customs Union has a negative effect on Turkish exports and a positive effect on imports. Estimates at selected time intervals reinforce aggregate estimates and sectoral level analyses indicate that while some regions contribute positively in all or the majority of sectors, others contribute negatively or produce mixed results.     

PROMOTING EFFORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE IMPACT OF IMPORT PROMOTION OFFICES

Increasing exports from developing countries is widely regarded as an important part of a development and growth strategy. A major problem confronting exporters from developing countries is the many market barriers they typically face when attempting to enter markets in developed countries. Different institutions have been established to alleviate this problem, including export promotion offices (EPOs) in various developing countries and import promotion offices (IPOs) in several developed countries. The present study explores the impact of IPOs on exports from developing to developed countries by examin ing the actual pattern of imports into OECD countries over the period 1988 to 1993. Four specific product groups are selected and a model pertaining to explain the pattern of imports is presented. The results show that, even after controlling for a number of economic and policy variables, the share of imports originating in developing coun tries is indeed positively influenced by the presence of an IPO in the importing country. Thus, the results suggest that the establishment of an IPO may have a positive impact on the share of imports originat ing in developing countries.     

Determinants of Trade: the Role of Innovation in Presence of Quality Standards

This paper analyses the role that quality standards and innovation play on trade volume, by using a gravity model. The role of innovative activity and quality standards in enhancing trade performance is widely accepted in the literature. However, in this paper, we argue that the net effect of quality standards on trade is affected by the exporter’s ability to innovate and comply with these requirements. In particular, by using a sample of 60 exporting countries and 57 importing countries, for a wide range of 26 manufacturing industries over the period 1995–2000, we show that the most innovative industries are more likely to enhance the overall quality of exports, and then gain a competitive advantage. We also find that this effect depends on the level of technology intensity at industry-level and on the level of economic development of exporting country.     

Paying a visit: The Dalai Lama effect on international trade

Is political compliance a precondition for healthy trade relations with China? The Chinese government frequently threatens that meetings between its trading partners' officials and the Dalai Lama will be met with animosity and ultimately harm trade ties. We run a gravity model of exports to China from 159 partner countries between 1991 and 2008 to test the extent to which bilateral tensions affect trade with autocratic China. In particular, we empirically investigate whether countries that receive the Dalai Lama despite China's opposition experience a significant reduction in their exports to China. In order to account for the potential endogeneity of meetings with the Dalai Lama, the number of Tibet Support Groups and the travel pattern of the Tibetan leader are used as instruments. Our empirical results support the idea that countries officially receiving the Dalai Lama at the highest political level are punished through a reduction of their exports to China. However, this ‘Dalai Lama Effect’ is only observed for the Hu Jintao era and not for earlier periods. Furthermore, we find that this effect is mainly driven by reduced exports of machinery and transport equipment and that it disappears in the second year after a meeting took place.     

The effects of China's aid and trade on its ODI in African countries

This paper examines the effects of China's aid and trade on its overseas direct investment (ODI) in 50 African countries from 2002 to 2013. We find that exports of natural resources significantly increase China's ODI; this suggests that China's ODI is “vertical.” Despite this, the relationship between aid and ODI varies according to different types of aid. Aid invested in social and economic infrastructure raises ODI, and the marginal effect diminishes as aid increases. Aid invested in the productive sector and the government, however, negatively impacts ODI, thereby suggesting that China's aid will crowd out its investment in these countries.     

Thick and Thin Borders in the European Union: How Deep Internal Integration is Within Countries,and How Shallow Between Them

The existence of large border effects is one of the main puzzles of international macroeconomics. The seminal paper by McCallum found that trade between any two Canadian provinces was (on average) 22 times greater than trade between any Canadian province and any US state. Although various authors have estimated internal and external border effects for the whole European Union and some specific European countries, none has done so in the manner that McCallum's seminal paper, stymied by lack of data on region‐to‐region international trade flows. This study uses a novel data set that captures intra and international truck shipments between Spanish regions and regions in seven European countries during the period 2004–11. It computes internal and external border effects, offering novel results for aggregate flows and the importing countries, and estimates several specifications of the gravity equation, so as to tackle such issues as the multilateral resistance term, heteroscedasticity, and zero flows and non‐linear relation between trade and distance. The paper also adds a detailed analysis on the external border effect for each Spanish exporting region and each of the seven European countries considered. By means of this analysis, we shed new light on the relative integration between regions of these seven countries and Spanish exporting regions. Finally, we conduct an extrapolation exercise, computing the ‘trade potentials’ that would be expected in a fully integrated Europe and estimating how long full integration would take to achieve between each Spanish exporting region and each European importing country. To this regard, two alternative scenarios are considered: one using the growth rates of the Spanish exports before the crisis (2001–08) and other considering the post‐crisis growth rates (2011–13).     

我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素研究——基于引力模型和变系数面板数据模型的实证分析

选取巴西、智利和阿根廷为代表,借助引力模型,在对面板数据进行单位根检验和协整分析的基础上,运用变系数面板回归模型,实证分析了我国对拉美新兴市场出口的影响因素问题。结果表明,贸易摩擦显著影响了我国对其出口;人民币汇率变动的影响,应视进口国货币汇率变化情况和双方贸易的互补性和竞争性程度而定;拉美地区人均收入的提高会降低对我国产品的需求;双边良好的经济基础为我国出口提供了有效保障;虽然我国对拉美新兴市场出口较多,但利润较低。最后还从经济与贸易角度对上述实证结果进行了解读,并提出了相应的对策建议。