人民币汇率与中美购买力平价的计量分析

购买力平价理论是现代汇率决定理论的基石之一,本在简要介绍了购买力平价理论的基本思想后,对人民币汇率和中美通货膨胀率的关系进行了直观的数据分析,在此基础上,运用协整技术对中美两国货币的购买力平价关系进行了计量检验,本主要结论是：尽管购买力平价对人民币汇率变化的解释能力较弱,但是,购买力平价在决定人民币汇率中的基础性作用还是存在的。     

购买力平价理论及其在中目的实用性探讨

本文首先评述了购买力平价理论，既而用实证分析方法对购买力平价对人民币汇率的应用进行检验，最后分析了购买力平价不适合人民币汇率的原因。     

购买力平价对人民币汇率适用性的实证分析

本文在相对购买力平价理论基础上估算出人民币的理论汇率与名义汇率的偏离度,并对该理论进行协整检验,得出购买力平价理论对人民币适用性并不强的结论,不能仅仅依据购买力平价理论判断人民币的均衡汇率。     

购买力平价理论及其在中国的实用性探讨

本文首先评述了购买力平价理论,既而用实证分析方法对购买力平价对人民币汇率的应用进行检验.最后分析了购买力平价不适合人民币汇率的原因.     

购买力平价理论及其在中国的实用性探讨

本文首先评述了购买力平价理论,既而用实证分析方法对购买力平价对人民币汇率的应用进行检验.最后分析了购买力平价不适合人民币汇率的原因.     

从购买力平价角度看人民币汇率

购买力平价是汇率决定的最有影响的理论之一，经常成为各国作为制定经济政策的重要依据。能否依据购买力平价理论来制定人民币汇率政策，已成为目前国内关注的焦点。现有文献对购买力平价的检验结论存在明显的分歧。因此本文通过历年来各大学者的综合观点，总结出了购买力平价对人民币汇率的适用性。     

人民币升值背景下再议购买力平价理论

近年来,对人民币汇率的决定基础问题,国内外给予了空前关注,其中一个重要的理论依据就是购买力平价。但同时,对于购买力平价理论也一直存在着很多争议。随着购买力平价理论研究的深入,统计方法的发展,统计数据的充实,购买力平价理论再度引起人们的重视。     

基于购买力平价的实证分析

购买力平价是关于汇率决定的最重要的理论之一,是其他汇率决定学说的理论基础以及进行汇率分析的重要工具。本文选取2006年1月至2011年3月的数据,采用最小二乘法以及相关的统计分析方法,检验现实人民币汇率的形成是否符合购买力平价理论。     

人民币升值背景下再次购买力平价理论

近年来，对人民币汇率的决定基础问题，国内外给予了空前关注，其中一个重要的理论依据就是购买力平价。但同时，对于购买力平价理论也一直存在着很多争议。随着购买力平价理论研究的深入，统计方法的发展，统计数据的充实，购买力平价理论再度引起人们的重视。     

国际经济学的边际革命与绝对购买力平价汇率决定论的终结

早在1985年王国乡教授就提出了边际购买力平价理论。在《均衡汇率决定原理》、《对外贸易与汇价决策新论》等文章和著作中王国乡先生对这一理论做了全面系统的阐述。尽管茅于轼教授曾经在《择优分配原理》一书中高度评价和肯定该理论,又在《生活中的经济学》中对该理论做了许多通俗生动的说明,但是由于教科书上仍是以平均数方法解释购买力平价理论,由此引起的谬误继续对我国的汇率预测以及外贸、国际金融政策产生不良影响。本文的目的就是指出平均数方法解释的购买力平价理论的错误并用边际购买力平价理论分析一国实现对外宏观经济效益最大化的途径。     

人民币汇率购买力平价假说的实证检验

从长期来看，购买力平价对人民币汇率虽然具有一定的解释作用，但有很大的局限性。汇率的变动不仅仅与物价水平相关，还与一国的生产力发展水平、利率、资本流动等其他经济变量以及该国施行的货币政策、财政政策和汇率政策有关。因此，必须对购买力平价计量检验模型进行修正，以期更好地解释人民币汇率的变化并指导其调整。     

Central Bank Intervention,Exchange Rate Regime and the Purchasing Power Parity

Motivated by the argument that central bank intervention leads to non‐linear exchange rate adjustment processes, we examine purchase power parity (PPP) by applying quantile unit root tests to the exchange rates of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) vis‐à‐vis seven Asian currencies. We show that exchange rate regime matters in determining whether PPP holds. While PPP holds overwhelmingly during the period when the NTD is under the fixed exchange rate regime, it is present only for some exchange rates during the managed floating rate regime. For exchange rates exhibiting mean reversion, the reversion occurs mainly when the shocks are large. In contrast to conclusion in the literature, our test results show little evidence of asymmetric mean reversion between positive and negative shocks.     

民营企业参与PPP的非正式制度壁垒分析——基于新制度经济学的视角

推行政府和社会资本合作(PPP)模式是中国全面深化改革,提高公共服务供给水平与效率的重要举措,并已取得了较好的成效.但在公用事业PPP模式的推行中,民营企业参与PPP面临许多隐性壁垒,难以充分发挥PPP模式的功效.本文通过实地调研,从新制度经济学的视角,深入分析民营企业参与PPP面临的一系列非正式制度壁垒,并提出鼓励民营企业参与PPP的制度创新建议,以提高民营企业参与PPP的积极性.     

英国PPP/PFI项目融资法律的演进及其对中国的借鉴意义

近年来,中国PPP项目进入爆发式增长期,PPP项目实施中出现的问题引起了理论界和实务界对PPP法律问题的关注。PPP项目融资是有别于传统抵押融资、担保融资的新型融资模式。本文以英国PPP/PFI项目融资法律和相关政策的发展、演进为视角,重点关注其中的融资法律问题,进而为中国完善PPP立法提出意见和建议。     

Dissecting the PPP puzzle: the unconventional roles of nominal exchange rate and price adjustments

The conventional view, as expounded by sticky-price models, is that price adjustment determines the PPP reversion rate. This study examines the mechanism by which PPP deviations are corrected. Nominal exchange rate adjustment, not price adjustment, is shown to be the key engine governing the speed of PPP convergence. Moreover, nominal exchange rates are found to converge much more slowly than prices. With the reversion being driven primarily by nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates also revert at a slower rate than prices, as identified by the PPP puzzle [J. Econ. Lit. 34 (1996) 647].     

经验、产业集聚与“一带一路”PPP项目的成功率

提高"一带一路"PPP项目的成功率,对"一带一路"倡议的推进意义重大。文章以"一带一路"沿线36个国家和地区的2131次PPP投资项目为样本,系统研究了东道国经验对PPP项目成功率的影响和产业集聚在其中的作用,基于排序模型实证发现:经验与PPP项目成功率间并非简单的线性或曲线关系,其中成功经验与项目成功率成负向线性关系,而总经验和失败经验则成U型非线性关系;产业集聚有助于降低失败经验对项目成功率的积极影响,但在总经验或成功经验的影响中无显著作用。     

Long-run real exchange rates in the Four Little Dragons

This paper analyses changes in the exchange rate arrangements and policy and their impact on the long-run real exchange rates of the Asian Four Little Dragons. It is found that purchasing power parity is a basic guide in formulating the exchange rate policy of the Four Little Dragons and that exchange rate regimes are very responsive to the effect of major external disturbances on prices. Thus, the exchange rate policy and arrangements are important factors in shaping the behaviour of the real exchange rates of the FLDs, which tend to return to the long-run average value. To test the null hypothesis that purchasing power parity does not hold between the Four Little Dragons and the United States, two cointegration tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the Johansen test, are applied. As the symmetry and proportionality conditions are not supported by the data, the tests are conducted in a trivariate system. While the ADF test does not support PPP, evidence of cointegration is found by the Johansen test.     

探析PPP教学法的适用性

在我国的应试教育体制下, PPP教学法一直在英语教学中独占鳌头,但自从任务型教学法在我国广为推广时, PPP教学法就开始受到各种抨击。本文试图从以下三个方面探讨3P教学法的适用性。通过对3P教学法与任务型教学法的对比,从物理环境、心理环境和语言环境三个方面分析了中国特色的外语课堂文化,得出的结论是3P教学法虽饱受诟病,但在大学英语教学中不可完全摒弃,它为学生更好地适应和接受整个大学阶段的英语学习起到了很好的过渡作用,所以它非常适用于大一阶段。     

Real exchange rate targeting and macroeconomic instability

Using an optimizing model of a small open economy, this paper studies the macroeconomic effects of PPP rules whereby the government increases the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate—defined as the price of tradables in terms of nontradables—is below its long-run level and reduces the devaluation rate when the real exchange rate is above its long-run level. The paper shows that the mere existence of such a rule can generate aggregate instability due to self-fulfilling expectations. The result is shown to obtain in both flexible- and sluggish-price environments.     

The Chinese RMB: Its Value,Its Peg,and Its Future

The valuation of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) has drawn lots of attention lately and a great deal of pressure on the part of developed nations for revaluation. In addressing the issue of valuation, this paper develops a new purchasing power parity (PPP) index of China’s exchange rate and finds that the while undervalued, the undervaluation is neither unusual nor bad policy. Moreover, China’s overall external trade balance does not seem to be that far out of equilibrium. China’s desire to join the G-7 club is likely to result in abandoning its peg, however, despite the increased risk to its economic development.JEL Classification F310