双边FTA：国际经贸关系新热点

双边自由贸易区(FTA)是指两个国家(或单独关税区、国家联盟)通过谈判达成协议,减少或取消双边贸易、投资等限制措施,是以国家契约为基础建立起来的一种国际区域经济合作形式。双边FTA的缔约方仍可以对区外成员实施限制措施。一、当前双边FTA的发展态势 (一)双边FTA的数量迅速增长。根据WTO统计,到2002年底,全球共有255     

采取积极姿态——日本双边自由贸易发展及其主要障碍

世纪之交,在全球性双边自由贸易迅速发展的形势下,日本双边自由贸易也出现加快发展的态势。与此同时,通过调整对外经济战略、修改通商政策、制定FTA(自由贸易协定)战略、建立推进机构和开展官产学共同研究,日本政府对双边自由贸易采取了越来越积     

中韩FTA争论的焦点分析

区域经济合作己成为当今世界的一个重要发展趋势,特别是20世纪90年代中期以后,以全球性双边自由贸易的迅速发展为标志,世界经济区域化、一体化进入了以双边自由贸易为主、多层次自由贸易同时发展的新阶段。建立FTA,会给中韩两国带来共赢的结果,这已成为中韩两国政府、产业界和学术界的共识。然而,出于各自利益的考虑,中韩FTA在许多领域存在着严重的意见分歧。研究中韩两国FTA争论的焦点对发展中韩友好关系、推动中韩经济合作以及推动东北亚、东亚经济一体化都有重要的意义。     

顺应潮流积极参与世界双边FTA活动

<正>以全球FTA特别是双边自由贸易的迅速发展为标志,世界经济区域化、一体化进入了以双边自由贸易为主的新阶段,出现了新的特点。中国在加入WTO后,积极参与区域经济合作和双边FTA是拓展对外经济和贸易增长空间,发挥比较优势,加快经济发展的重要措施。这不仅符合我国政治、外交和安全利益,也为我国现代化建设创造一个良好的国际环境。     

中国FTA:特征、障碍与建设原则

一、中图双边FTA的发展特征与效应分析 (一)中图双边FTA的发展特征 1.起步较晚,发展较快.WTO成立至2005年7月间,向WTO通报的区域贸易协定高达206个,其中WTO成立前有124个,但其时无中国影子.中国入世标志着 中国真正融入经济全球化进程,发展双边FTA的步伐也因此而不断加快,且成效显著.     

日本—新加坡双边自由贸易协定案例剖析

分析了日本-新加坡双边自由贸易协定(FTA)签署的背景,介绍了日新双边协定的主要内容,并探讨了日新双边FTA的经济影响和对我国的借鉴意义。     

中国双边FTA建设面临的问题及推进策略

中国发展双边FTA已经取得显著成果,但随着全球自由贸易区的快速发展,中国双边FTA建设仍面临TTP和TTIP等区域组织的挑战和其他方面的问题。本文在分析中国双边FTA建设面临的挑战和问题的基础上,提出制定双边FTA整体战略规划,调整产业结构并提升自身综合实力,完善贸易争端解决机制和贸易援助机制建设,加强相关组织机构和沟通平台建设等措施,推进中国双边FTA的建设。     

双边自贸协定渐成潮流 广西开放战略加快调整

目前世界经济格局出现了一个新的潮流，即地区性贸易自由化发展非常迅速。双边自由贸协定（Free Trade Agreenlent，缩写为FTA），是就取消或降低各种贸易和投资限制而洽谈签订的协定。在FTA逐渐成为世界经贸发展的潮流，并对全球经济和政治进程正产生深远影响的环境下，广西有必要从世界格局、综合影响、发展趋势等方面全面认识FTA，以便更好地确定广西在“十一五”期间的外经贸发展思路，实施好对外开放战略。     

中日韩FTA的经济效果影响分析

伴随经济全球一体化的深入发展,中日韩作为东亚区域经济一体化建设中的重要经济体,不断调整规划FTA战略,在推动三国经济贸易增长的同时,也为东北亚区域经济合作发挥重要作用。文章分析中日韩FTA发展进程与必要性,指出中日韩FTA对经济效果的影响,就如何推进中日韩FTA建设提供相应的对策,促进中国经济的发展。     

亚欧合作力创双赢

WTO欲启动新一轮贸易谈判,遇挫; 多边贸易体制在推进多边层次的合作上,碰障碍; 现有区域贸易集团内既得利益的分配,遭局限性; 区域经济合作于是乎就像雨后春笋般滋生出来,据不完全统计,目前全球约有240个区域贸易协定,135个自由贸易区,涉及世贸组织97％的成员,其中双边的FTA约占90％左右。FTA的蓬勃兴起,表明通过区域经济合作来推进一国或一地区的经济贸易增长,已成为当今国际经贸发展的重要趋势。     

中日韩FTA的潜在经济影响研究——基于动态递归式CGE模型的研究

区域性FTA已经成为世界贸易自由化的新趋势,中韩日FTA的构建对于3国经济融合将产生巨大的推动作用。本文首先回顾了中日韩FTA的相关研究与谈判进程;然后分析了中日韩3国的贸易结构、特征与趋势;最后,结合FTA资本聚集效应,按时间序列构建动态递归式一般均衡模型,分析了中日韩FTA对3国国内生产总值、福利(EV)、外贸进出口、贸易条件等产生的各种潜在经济影响。     

FTA网络化发展中的“轮轴-辐条”模式:福利效应与中国的参与战略

由不同类型、不同规模的"轮轴—辐条"结构组成的错综复杂的FTA网络成为区域经济一体化的新模式,相关国内外文献较少从微观视角涉及这种新模式的福利效应分析。本文在一般均衡垄断竞争模型基础上,分析了"轮轴-辐条"及其扩展结构下不同地位国家的福利和FTA收益以及影响因素。结果发现:(1)轮轴国与辐条国之间存在不对称收益,轮轴国取得的福利大于辐条国,轮轴有自我强化效应;(2)辐条拓补和多轮轴-辐条结构的福利分配情况复杂,受到产品替代性、贸易互补性、市场份额以及规模报酬递增水平等共同影响;(3)从轮轴-辐条结构进化到全球自由贸易将会增加辐条国的福利和贸易额,降低轮轴国的福利和贸易额。在深入考察FTA网络的构建及其稳定性基础上,墨西哥、韩国、日本、俄罗斯及南非是优先的可选FTA合作伙伴。     

Multilateral,Regional and Bilateral Trade‐Policy Options for the United States and Japan

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of the Doha Round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that an assumed reduction of post‐Uruguay Round tariffs and other barriers on agricultural and industrial products and services by 33 per cent in the Doha Round would increase world welfare by $686.4 billion, with gains of $164.0 billion for the United States, $132.6 billion for Japan, and significant gains for all other industrialised and developing countries/regions. If there were global free trade with all post‐Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, world welfare would increase by $2.1 trillion, with gains of $497.0 billion (5.5 per cent of GNP) for the United States and $401.9 billion (6.2 per cent of GNP) for Japan. Regional agreements such as an APEC FTA, an ASEAN Plus 3 FTA, and a Western Hemisphere FTA would increase global and member country welfare but much less so than the Doha multilateral trade round would. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with Singapore, Mexico, Chile and Korea, and the United States with Chile, Singapore and Korea would have positive, though generally small, welfare effects on the partner countries, but potentially disruptive sectoral employment shifts in some countries. There would be trade diversion and detrimental welfare effects on some non‐member countries for both the regional and bilateral FTAs analysed. The welfare gains from multilateral trade liberalisation are therefore considerably greater than the gains from preferential trading arrangements and more uniformly positive for all countries.     

The Impact of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment among Developed Countries

Previous studies find that a trade treaty positively impacts foreign direct investment (FDI). But does a trade treaty always have positive effects on FDI? What is the effect of bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) on bilateral FDI among developed countries? Based on the Knowledge‐Capital model, I hypothesize that bilateral FTA has negative effects on bilateral FDI in developed–developed country pairs, but positive effects in developed–developing country pairs. To test this hypothesis empirically, I conduct the within estimator, the Difference‐in‐Difference estimator and the Arellano–Bond estimator with panel data of bilateral FTA and outward FDI in 30 OECD countries and 32 non‐OECD countries between 1982 and 2005. The result supports the hypothesis. The existence of bilateral FTA decreases bilateral FDI in the OECD–OECD country pairs but increases bilateral outward FDI in the OECD–non‐OECD country pairs. The finding of negative effects of bilateral FTA on FDI is robust to different country classifications by gross national income (GNI) per capita and secondary school enrolment. Hence, the results are consistent with what Carr et al. (2001) predicts about the effects of trade cost on FDI in developed–developed country pairs and in developed–developing country pairs.     

解析欧盟韩国自由贸易协定

2011年7月1日欧盟韩国自由贸易协定生效实施。该协定成为各自经济体与贸易伙伴签署的最大的自由贸易协定。该协定既是双边密切经济关系的需要,也是各自实施FTA战略的结果。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定是迄今为止在全球范围很全面的贸易自由化协定,开放深度和广度远远超过世界贸易组织。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定的出现推动了区域经济一体化的进程。韩国目前在中日韩三国各自实施FTA战略上占据了有利的地位。     

中韩两国自贸区战略对比及双边自贸区谈判展望

作为东亚重要的经济体,中韩两国近年来都走在积极推进对外自贸区建设,并取得了较大进展。尽管两国对外贸易依存度都处于较高的水平,但由于经济规模、贸易规模的差异,两国的自贸区战略也存在很大的差异。通过分析中韩两国的自贸区战略,可以发现中韩之间构建自贸区将是下一步双方战略的交汇点。尽管自贸区的达成会造成双方国内行业利益的分配不均,但双方政府可以通过在自贸区谈判中采取必要的例外或过渡期安排来完成双边的自贸区构建。     

构建中韩双边自由贸易区的前景探讨——基于货物贸易的视角

随着双边自由贸易区的迅猛发展,各国经济相互合作和融合的程度大大增强.与此同时,东亚地区尤其是中韩两国的经济贸易关系日益密切,加快建立双边自由贸易区的呼声不断涌现.文章以中韩两国的货物贸易为研究基础,运用相关模型和指标分别就中韩两国建立双边自由贸易区后可能产生的贸易效应以及对产业内贸易的影响进行了系统的实证分析.研究表明,构建中韩自由贸易区对于增加两国福利、优化两国产业结构以及平衡两国国际收支等方面都有积极影响,中韩两国具有广阔的经贸合作前景.     

中国自由贸易区建设的战略——基于面板数据的实证分析

运输成本所体现的地理距离对国际贸易的阻碍作用随着产业内贸易的发展重新被重视。"相似需求理论"认为经济发展水平相近的国家的贸易量会更大。边界的存在使国际贸易受到关税的阻碍,各国希望通过FTA甚至更高形式的经济一体化组织来抹平边界的作用。文章从实证的角度解析我国自由贸易区建设的影响因素,重点考察地理因素、经济发展水平对中国自由贸易区建设的影响的显著性,以从中窥探中国自由贸易区建设的特点及战略选择。     

Free trade areas,the limit of Rules of Origin,and optimal tariff reductions under international oligopoly: A welfare analysis

In this article we analyze the economic effects associated with preferential Rules of Origin (RoO) in a free trade area (FTA). By presenting a stylized three-country model of trade under oligopoly, we show that there exists a maximum limit of RoO below which forming an FTA is welfare-improving. In examining external tariff reductions under FTA, we take into account the constrained conditions that optimal tariffs set by member countries effectively induce the intrabloc exporters to comply with RoO. This approach rules out trade regime switches and helps identify the economic determinants of establishing an effective and welfare-improving FTA with RoO. We further examine whether an FTA with RoO increases total trade or whether the extra trade arises at the expense of nonmembers. Our simple model has implications for economic factors that foster or impede regional economic integration under imperfect completion.     

ASEAN‐China Free Trade Area: A Bane or Boon for ASEAN Countries?

At the ASEAN Summit in November 2000, the leaders of ASEAN and China agreed to enhance economic cooperation and integration with the goal of establishing an ASEAN‐China Free Trade Area (FTA). This decision was a natural response to a number of important global and regional developments of the past decade. Since the signing of the framework agreement, policymakers from China and ASEAN member states have already started their negotiations on the specific terms and features for this proposed FTA. While such an FTA would hold the potential of yielding enormous economic benefits, it also causes some sense of apprehension and uncertainty in some quarters, due to the common perception that China is already a strong competitor in trade and attracting foreign investment. To examine the economic basis for such concern, this paper analyses the economic implications of this proposed free trade area from the ASEAN economies’ perspective. Specifically, it examines how competitive ASEAN countries are vis‐à‐vis China, evaluate the scope for strengthening China‐ASEAN trade and the impediments facing Chinese and ASEAN investors in each other's markets, and recommends policy measures to maximise the benefits and minimise the hardships resulting from an ASEAN‐China FTA.