我国汽车制造业的贸易流量与出口潜力:基于引力模型的分析

近年来,随着汽车工业的发展,汽车制造业出口呈现出快速增长的势头,在我国出口商品中所占的比重不断增加。本文选取了与我国汽车贸易往来最为密切的39个国家和地区,通过构建引力模型,对影响1 999年以来我国汽车制造业出口的主要因素进行了实证分析。在此基础上,对未来我国汽车制造业出口贸易的发展潜力进行了预测,并提出了我国汽车制造业出口持续发展的对策建议。     

产业内贸易与公司内贸易规模的决定

交易效率对产业内贸易与公司内贸易模式和贸易规模演变具有影响.国际贸易是实现规模报酬递增的重要途径,但其实现要取决于交易效率的水平.产业内贸易中产品种类数增加导致交易成本上升,为了节约交易成本,公司内贸易形成,但公司内贸易规模的扩大又使其自身的规模边界形成.文章还讨论了公司内贸易所具有的成本优势和策略优势,以及研发竞争过程中公司内贸易规模的变化.     

Apartheid and business: Competition,monopoly and the growth of the malted beer industry in South Africa

The South African brewing industry experienced enormous growth in the apartheid era, following the lifting of prohibition on the sale of ‘European liquor’ to Africans in 1961. Successive international brewers and local entrepreneurs sought to benefit from increased demand in the 1970s but were unable to withstand competition from South African Breweries (SAB), the dominant player in the industry. A decade of intense competition in the brewing industry ended with the intervention of the cabinet of the Afrikaner Nationalist government. SAB's status as ‘sole supplier to the industry’ remained virtually unchallenged until the demise of apartheid and the end of South Africa's international isolation. The end of apartheid and changes in the global brewing industry brought renewed competition to the South African beer market in the late 1990s and early 2000s.     

Microenterprise,Multinational Business Support,and Poverty Alleviation in South Africa's Informal Economy

The authors examine corporate programs that support microenterprise development in Africa. Specifically, the analysis assesses the extent to which local income and sales are affected by Coca-Cola's initiatives to assist South Africa's microenterprise in the retail trade sector. To quantify the impact, questionnaires were obtained from owners of small-scale retail establishments in the country's vast informal economy. Regression analysis is performed on key variables from the survey, testing hypotheses advanced to explain the size of an owner's income and sales. In addition to business development support, the explanatory variables include startup capital, size, and male/female ownership. It appears that business development support has a positive effect on lifting income and reducing poverty for microenterprise owners, after controlling for other influences.     

Bilateral Free Trade Agreements and Customs Unions: The Impact of the EU Republic of South Africa Free Trade Agreement on Botswana

The EU has indicated that after 2008 its trade relationships with developing countries will be dominated by the development of preferential trade agreements. Although not a consequence of the Cotonou Agreement, the free trade agreement between the EU and the Republic of South Africa (EU RSA FTA) was clearly one of the first fruits of this approach to trade relationships. However, there is no evidence that the design of the EU RSA FTA incorporated a comprehensive general equilibrium evaluation of the agreement for either the signatories or the other southern African nations. The analyses reported here indicate that while the EU RSA FTA may substantially benefit the signatories, there are appreciable negative impacts for other states, especially the Republic of South Africa's immediate neighbours. Moreover, the analyses indicate that the structural adjustments for African economies signalled by the FTA are substantial, which implies that there will be substantial economic costs associated with the FTA.     

中韩产业内贸易的实证分析与促进策略

文章运用Bergstrand双边产业内贸易指数和GHM分析方法,对2001年至2009年中韩双边产业内贸易指数和贸易结构情况进行计算和分析。结论认为,中韩双边初级产品以传统的产业间贸易为主,工业制品产业内贸易指数呈现波动上扬趋势;劳动密集型产品主要进行低质量的垂直型产业内贸易,资本和技术密集型产品则是低质量的水平型和垂直型产业内贸易并存,两国仍然处于低水平的贸易合作层次。为提升中韩产业内贸易水平,从企业和政府两个层面提出促进产业内贸易发展的举措。     

The Gravity of China's African Export Promise

Africa's largest trade partner, China, criticised for exchanging resources for manufactures, has promised to increase imports and optimise the structure of trade with Africa. Using a gravity model of China's imports for the years 1995–2009, we explore potential dynamics for this promise, uniquely accounting for market economy recognition and Taiwan recognition. The former is associated with increased imports, while the latter effect is ambiguous and statistically insignificant. Comparison of projected against actual imports across three growth‐path‐aligned economic geography typologies – resource‐rich; landlocked and resource‐poor; coastal and resource‐poor – sets out China's imports trends in an abstract framework of African export potential. We find not only ‘under’ importing across a majority of resource‐poor countries. We also find that current trade policy is the least applicable to these comparatively poor exporters’ trade with China. If the latter are to serve a broader catalytic role in Africa's regional industrial transformation as compared to the role of coastal and resource‐poor countries in regional economic transformation in Asia and Latin America, China–Africa trade and investment policies may need additional thinking.     

Estimating the South African trauma caseload

A survey of medical superintendents revealed that an estimated 1.5 million trauma cases presented to South Africa's 356 secondary and tertiary level hospitals in 1999. Injury rates for traffic, violence and other injuries showed considerable inter-provincial variation, with violence accounting for more than half of the trauma caseload. This type of survey is a simple low cost alternative for monitoring injury patterns and supplementing burden of disease and injury costing studies.     

Africa's marginalisation in world trade

Since 1975 the Lomé Conventions have granted trade preferences to African exports to the European Union, Africa's main trading partner. The liberalisation of trade foreseen by the Uruguay Round means that these preferences will disappear, leading to net reductions in African exports. What lessons should the countries of Africa draw from this?     

Trade liberalization in asian newly industrialized countries

Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan are often perceived as having achieved similar trade patterns; nevertheless, their trade policies and patterns differ in fundamental respects. In this study, three models are considered and different aspects of the trade liberalization policies of these three countries are highlighted. The model of South Korea underscores the significance of product market concentration in restraining real wage growth and contributing to income inequality. The model of Singapore highlights the role of foreign investment in producing manufactured goods for export and in raising real wages. The factor proportions model of a labor-abundant economy adequately describes the Taiwanese liberalization. The model's predictions of rising real wages and no monopoly profits are consistent with Taiwan's declining income inequality.     

Ownership and technical efficiency in Malaysia's automotive industry: A stochastic frontier production function analysis

This article examines the direct effect of the extent of foreign ownership on technical efficiency in Malaysia's automotive industry by applying a stochastic frontier production function analysis to micro-panel data over the years 2000–2004. Technical efficiency in the overall automotive industry is positively related to the degree of vertical integration, the size of establishments in the respective sub-sectors, a higher quality of the work force, and a higher foreign ownership share in the establishment combined with higher net-import intensity. Foreign ownership and net-export intensity are not significant determinants of technical efficiency inthe parts sub-sector. Although majority foreign ownership is not allowed in the assembly sub-sector, this sub-sector is large, with asmall number of establishments generating scale economies in the automotive industry. The determinants of technical efficiency in the parts sub-sector show that foreign ownership per se does not enhance technical efficiency since other determinants like the degree of vertical integration and the size of establishments are significant determinants of technical efficiency.     

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Product Fragmentation in the Auto-Parts Industry

A distinctive feature of present globalization is the development of international production sharing activities, i.e. production fragmentation. The increased importance of fragmentation in world trade has created an interest among trade economists in explaining the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in intermediate goods. In this study, the extent of IIT in Austria’s auto-parts trade is analyzed by decomposing Austria’s auto-parts trade into one-way trade, vertical IIT, and horizontal intra-industry trade IIT. Then, the development of vertical IIT in the auto-parts industry is examined as an indicator for international fragmentation of the production process between Austria and its 29 trading partners, and various country-specific factors suggested by the fragmentation literature are tested using panel econometrics as well as more recent data from 1996 to 2006. The results show that a substantial portion of IIT in the Austrian auto-parts industry is vertical IIT, and the econometric results mainly support the hypothesis drawn from the fragmentation theory. In particular, the findings show that the extent of Austria’s vertical IIT in auto-parts is positively correlated with average market size, differences in per capita GDP, and foreign direct investment, while it is negatively correlated with distance.     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

Determinants of Bilateral Trade Protection

In this paper, determinants of bilateral protection levels are empirically identified when controlling for multilateral trade regulation and importing‐country‐specific factors. Strong empirical support is provided of that three bilateral factors are influencing the bilateral protection level. Specifically, a country's protection level on goods from a trade partner is positively affected by the domestic import penetration of goods produced by the trade partner, negatively influenced by the intra‐industry traded share of these imports and positively affected by the trade partner's protection level on domestic goods. Moreover, very high explanatory values are provided in the cross‐section estimations, indicating that these determinants, policy regulations and importer‐specific factors jointly explain almost all of the variation in bilateral protection levels. The results are general in the sense that estimations are performed for a large sample of bilateral trade relations including 22 trade partners that are highly differentiated in terms of country characteristics. The overall results indicate that, to the extent that policy makers can affect bilateral protection levels under multilateral trade regulation, they act on political‐economy rather than economic goals.     

Vertical Relationships in the Automotive Industry: Do They Matter?

In this note we examine how vertical relationships are related to the efficiency of the operations in the automotive production chain. We first provide an overview of the nature of supplier arrangements by comparing current practices in the countries Japan, US, and Germany. Current best practices show that vertical linkages in the automotive industry have shifted away from simple market transactions and now involve closer long-term interactions coupled however with subtle incentive elements. We outline the economic issues which are present in vertical relationships and include a brief account of differing theoretical perspectives. Then, we use a refined methodology to measure productivity at the industry level for the supplier industries automotive parts and metalworking and for the final assembly industry. It turns out that Japanese industries achieve the highest productivity level at the supplier and at the assembly level. We interpret the empirical results and relate the differences in vertical arrangemen s with the efficiency of both parts in the relation.     

FDI的进入方式对我国汽车行业的影响探析

本文以我国汽车行业为例,深入分析了新建投资和跨国并购投资分别对我国汽车行业的影响,从而对我国汽车行业利用FDI提供有意义的政策建议。     

Liberalisation and Protection under Overlapping Free Trade Agreements: Dynamic Interplay between Free Trade Agreements and Investment

Two decades into the most recent wave of regionalism many of its implications remain to be fully understood. A vast literature has explored the impacts of free trade agreements (FTAs) on investment flows, but less attention has been given to how existing patterns of investment alter FTA liberalisation. It is contended here that the dynamic interplay between overlapping FTA areas and the investment sunk in them shapes governments' and firms' positions regarding further FTA liberalisation. During trade negotiations, a country may decide to exclude a sector from FTA liberalisation to prevent (concession prevention) future FTA partners from making similar demands. Concession prevention could also occur when a foreign firm, holding a dominant market position in a host country, relinquishes liberalisation demands in an FTA between host and home countries to prevent its current position being eroded if the host country grants similar (or better) concessions to competing firms from other countries in future FTAs. Conversely, investment sunk into a country's sensitive sector in the territory of partners from previous FTAs could pre‐empt (concession pre‐emption) the protectionist position of that country when it subsequently negotiates FTAs with the investment‐source countries. These arguments were tested in the negotiations around the liberalisation of the automotive industry that Thailand and Malaysia had with Japan in their respective bilateral FTAs. The distinct interaction between investment and the FTAs in which these countries participate resulted either in entrenchment of protectionism in the sector or its liberalisation across subsequent FTAs.     

中国出口产业结构优化评估——基于垂直专业化比率指标的改进与动态分析

为解释中国出口产业结构提升的原因,我们通过对平新乔等(2006)方法进行修正和改进后,对中国出口中的垂直专业化比率进行了测算,结果发现:中国的出口贸易依然具有明显的"加工贸易"特征,而亚洲国家和地区则是提供给中国中间品的主要来源地;其次,出口份额与垂直专业化比率具有明显的正相关性,充分表明当前中国出口产业结构提升的主要原因在于进口中间品所做出的贡献,中国出口商品的比较优势依然在于廉价的劳动力;第三,尽管中国目前仍处于国际垂直生产体系的低附加值阶段,但随着时间推移,中国已开始优化其出口产业结构,改变过度依赖加工贸易的生产与贸易模式。     

Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Employment Reallocation: The Case Study of Iran’s Manufacturing Industries

The purpose of this paper is to test the smooth adjustment hypothesis by using panel technique for Iran’s manufacturing industries at the 4-digit aggregation level of ISIC classification, during time period 2001–2006. According to the smooth adjustment hypothesis, intra-industry trade expansion entails lower adjustment costs than inter-industry one. In this paper, by distinguishing marginal intra industry trade to its horizontal and vertical types and employing the total reallocation effect as a proxy of the adjustment cost of reallocation between sectors and occupations, we’ve tested smooth adjustment hypothesis for both marginal intra industry trade and its types. So, comparing with other empirical studies, this paper has used marginal vertical and horizontal intra industry trade as well as marginal intra industry trade to test the hypothesis. The obtained results do not support the hypothesis for marginal intra industry trade. On the other hand, by distinguishing marginal intra industry trade to marginal horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade, this hypothesis is expectedly confirmed. This result is justifiable since marginal horizontal intra industry trade is a change of intra industry trade with the similar factor intensity while marginal vertical intra industry trade is mainly based on the differences in factor endowment.