中国出口贸易与环境污染——基于广义脉冲函数的实证研究

本文运用广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,考察我国1990-2007年间5类环境污染指标与出口之间的长期动态响应特征。分析结果表明,出口贸易是影响我国污染排放的重要原因。方差分解结果显示出口贸易是解释各类污染排放的预测方差的重要变量,而污染排放对出口贸易的预测方差贡献度则相对较小。     

我国对外贸易与环境污染关系研究

本文通过协整分析、VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,研究对外贸易对我国环境污染的长期动态影响.分析结果显示,进口贸易有利于我国环境质量的改善,而出口贸易则恶化了我国的环境,"污染避难所"假说在我国得到实证;出口贸易是环境污染加剧的重要变量.     

江苏省出口贸易对环境质量影响的实证分析

本文通过建立VAR模型对江苏省对外贸易和环境成本之间的互动关系进行分析,并通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解的计量方法进一步研究二者间的冲击影响程度。分析结果表明,出口贸易是影响江苏省污染排放的重要原因,本文对此进行分析并同时就江苏出口贸易可持续发展提出政策建议。     

我国出口贸易对环境污染的影响及对策

改革开放30多年来,出口贸易的极大发展对我国的经济发展产生了巨大促进作用,但出口生产的增长也带来了日益严重的环境污染问题。本文从我国出口生产及物流对环境污染影响概况,各工业行业以及各地区出口生产对环境污染的影响,以及环境污染对我国经济可持续发展带来的负面效应这四个方面进行了分析。发现我国出口贸易存在诸多不利于环境保护的因素,开放程度大的工业行业及地区出口贸易额的增长趋势与环境污染物排放增长趋势大体一致。出口贸易生产对环境造成的污染,对我国经济增长带来了很大的负面效应。出口贸易带来的经济收益也由于这种负效应而大打折扣。因此得出结论,出口生产规模扩张会导致排污量增加以及资源耗费,造成净效益的损失。最后在此基础上提出了降低出口贸易对环境污染影响的相关政策建议。     

江苏出口贸易与环境污染关系实证研究

采用1990～2010年江苏省的相关数据,通过协整检验,格兰杰因果检验等方法对江苏省出口贸易与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证分析,指出出口贸易的增长,污染物排放呈总体上升趋势,同时深入研究出口产品结构与环境污染之间的关系,得出结论,即工业制成品出口量的增加极大程度上加剧环境的污染。     

环境规制、要素禀赋与出口贸易的动态关系——基于我国污染密集产业的动态面板数据

环境规制和要素禀赋均会影响某地区的比较优势,但环境规制对出口贸易的影响存在不确定性,特别是对于污染密集型产业来说。文章建立产业环境污染指数来定义污染密集型产业,同时建立环境规制强度评价体系来计算产业的环境规制强度,并以HOV模型为基础建立动态面板方程,对我国污染最为密集的四个行业的环境规制和出口贸易进行估计。估计的结果表明环境规制对我国污染密集型产业出口贸易的影响是显著的,出口量和环境规制程度之间呈现出"U"型的关系,而且在现有经济水平下大多数制造业处于拐点左侧,环境规制强度的提高仍不利于产业发展和出口贸易。     

对外贸易对环境污染的影响分析——基于VAR模型的实证分析

从动态计量分析的角度出发,利用基于VAR模型的协整分析及基于VEC模型的方差分解分析,分析了进出口贸易和工业经济增长等因素与工业SO2排放的关系。实证结果显示,长期来看,出口贸易是不利于我国工业SO2减排的,而进口贸易和工业经济增长则是有利于环境保护的;而就工业SO2排放短期波动来看,出口贸易对工业SO2排放的贡献率是最大的。     

我国加工贸易污染排放实证分析

目前我国还没有针对加工贸易污染排放的专门统计,但由于制造业与污染排放密切相关,而加工贸易主要在制造业,因此通过对加工贸易出口与工业废水、废气和固体废物从1995年至2007年的相关数据进行实证分析发现,经济增长、加工贸易与环境污染存在长期的正向协整关系,而经济增长与加工贸易是环境污染的主要原因,环境政策与污染的协整关系为负而且与各污染排放指标互相影响,在减少污染方面表现出持久性和有效性。     

新疆对外贸易对环境污染影响的实证分析

新疆近些年的对外贸易发展速度加快,在其快速的发展过程中对环境质量的影响也应引起关注,利用1985-2009年的新疆对外贸易和环境相关数据,基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,研究新疆对外贸易对环境污染的长期动态影响。分析结果显示出口贸易、进口贸易对环境污染的冲击效果呈现正负相间的波动性,并逐渐减小,出口贸易比进口贸易对解释环境污染指数起着更大的作用。     

环境规制对我国机电业出口竞争力影响简析

为了实现环境与经济的可持续发展,政府相继出台了各种环境规制政策。作为我国第一大类出口产业的机电制造业,其污染排放是我国环境污染重要来源。本文定性分析了环境规制对我国机电产业出口竞争力的影响,并提出了机电制造企业应对环境规制的具体措施。     

我国服务贸易自由化与经济增长的关系研究——基于脉冲响应函数方法的分析

本文运用基于VAR模型的脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法,考察了我国1982-2004年期间服务贸易进出口与我国经济发展的长期动态影响特征。冲击响应的分析结果表明:一方面,服务贸易进出口是影响我国经济增长的重要原因:另一方面,经济增长对于经济发展也存在反向作用,然而后者具有一定的滞后效应。方差分解结果显示,服务贸易自由化是解释经济增长的预测方差的重要变量,但经济增长对于服务贸易自由化的预测方差贡献度相对较小,经济增长对服务贸易的促进作用机制仍需要进一步完善。     

山东省对外贸易与环境保护协调发展问题研究

基于贸易与环境的相关性,就山东省对外贸易与环境保护的相互影响,山东省对外贸易与环境保护并没有取得协调的发展,盲目增长的进出口贸易带来了环境污染;同时,绿色贸易壁垒正在对山东省的对外贸易产生越来越大的负面影响。因此,针对这些情况,政府应推进环保产业的发展,扶植一批具有国际竞争力的环保企业,并建立外经贸和环保以及质检部门的协调机制,企业则采取实现绿色管理、组建绿色联盟、绕开绿色壁垒等实现对外贸易与环境保护协调发展。     

自由贸易及跨界污染背景下的国际环境政策协调

文章构建了一个考虑跨界污染损害的福利函数,推导出自由贸易背景下某国的最优污染税,并与世界福利最大化时的最优污染税进行比较,以说明国家间环境政策协调的必要性。文章考虑了四种情况,分析结果表明,只有在该国为小国且污染不跨界时不需要国际协调;当该国为大国或者污染跨界时,单个国家的独立行为通常不会产生合意的世界福利水平,此时需要国际协调以实现世界福利最大化。大国的污染政策具有贸易条件效应,因而出口国有设定过高污染税的激励,而进口国则会设定过低的污染税,双方都寻求转变贸易条件以有利于本方。而污染跨界时单个国家通常会有"搭便车"的激励,此时会实施较为宽松的环境政策。     

Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?

In an increasingly integrated world with declining trade barriers, environmental regulations can have a decisive role in shaping countries’ comparative advantages. The conventional wisdom about environmental protection is that it comes at an additional cost on firms imposed by the government, which may erode their global competitiveness. However, this paradigm has been challenged by some analysts. In particular, Porter and van der Linde argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may overcompensate for the costs of complying with these policies. This is known as the Porter hypothesis. While there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment, the empirical literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce, very heterogeneous and presents mixed results. The innovative feature of this paper is its attempts to estimate, in a gravity setting, augmented with a proxi of environmental stringency, the impact of three major multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) on 15 EU countries’ bilateral exports. According to our estimates, in the period 1988–2008, to be member of MEAs had a positive average impact on EU‐15 bilateral exports. This evidence can be partly explained by a possible trade diversion effect with respect to countries that did not sign MEAs and a corresponding trade creation effect among members of the environmental agreements. Furthermore, evidence coming from interaction effects estimates seems to show that for exporting countries, having signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal agreements partly mitigates (by the amount of the estimated coefficient) the negative impact of having a relatively more stringent environmental regulation on bilateral trade. This result could have important policy implications for the future international trade–environmental negotiations.     

Deforestation,foreign demand and export dynamics in Indonesia

This paper presents a dynamic, heterogeneous firm model of investment in environmental abatement and exporting. The model highlights the interaction between firms' environmental investment and export decisions on the evolution of productivity and export demand in timber manufacturing industries. The model is structurally estimated using Indonesian timber manufacturing data that captures firm-level variation in environmental investment and export behavior. The results suggest that environmental abatement has little impact on productivity dynamics, but does encourage growth in export demand. Counterfactual experiments quantify the impact of policy change on trade and abatement decisions.     

对外贸易、FDI与我国环境污染动态效应、区域差异

通过对我国1993-2006年间29个省市的对外贸易、FDI对环境污染的动态效应与区域差异分析,发现我国环境污染存在着显著的一阶滞后正向动态性,当期和滞后期出口加剧了环境污染,而进口则更大程度地抑制了环境污染,FDI却仅仅显示了对环境污染的滞后作用,同时也体现了环境污染的规模效应和技术效用;在三大地区中,东部地区的进口对环境污染有显著的抑制作用,而在中西部地区贸易与FDI对环境污染的影响并不显著。因此,需要因地制宜采取措施,促进自然、社会、经济的协调发展。     

贸易条件变动对中国经济增长影响的实证分析

文章根据1980-2006年的数据对价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件与经济增长之间的关系进行了经验分析,主要结论有：（1）贸易条件调整的实际GDP指标分析表明,从总体上看,价格贸易条件变化对我国的经济增长产生了负效应。（2）协整分析的结果表明,经济增长与价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系,但是价格贸易条件对经济增长的影响不显著,收入贸易条件对经济增长的影响也不是非常显著。（3）Granger因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解也都验证了协整分析的结果。最后,根据实证分析的结果,提出了相应的对策建议。     

Environmental Regulations in Gravity Equations: Evidence from Europe

One implication of the pollution haven hypothesis is that countries export more by applying more lenient environmental regulations. Most studies that apply gravity‐type equations do not find robust support for environmental regulations to affect bilateral exports. In this paper, we show that one can obtain robust negative effects of stringency, as long as gravity equations are well specified with respect to theory. Our results, based on the European data, are both very consistent with US studies on environmental regulations and another line of very recent studies that infer non‐biased price or substitution elasticities from trade equations. We show that more stringent environmental regulations, when depicting a pure cost effect, are reducing exports. The coefficient is even larger in the case where exporting countries are Central and Eastern European countries, comparing to the EU15. Further, we show that there is no significant difference in the impact of regulations on trade in case of dirty and clean sectors. Finally, when using GMM estimation, our environmental stringency coefficient gets significantly reinforced.     

A league of their own: services exporters – a developing country perspective

This paper provides a firm-level portrait of services exporters along with goods exporters in a developing country. Current findings of firm-level services trade literature suggest that the stylized facts of goods trade apply to services trade as well for a set of developed countries. This paper investigates if similar results hold for a developing country, Turkey, for the period 2003–2008. Most results lend support to the evidence found in the previous literature. However, the analysis of Turkish data shows that firms that export both goods and services are larger than those exporting goods or services only while multinationals that sell only goods are bigger than multinationals exporting both goods and services or those exporting only services.