Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?

This paper asks whether the remarkable decrease in business-cycle variability after the end of World War II has been the result of a more stable structure (the propagation mechanism) or less volatile shocks (the impulses). Using data from the pre-World War I, interwar, and post-World War II periods, for the US, Australia, Italy, Sweden, and the UK, our evidence suggests that the reduced volatility is mostly the result of calmer shocks, and less the consequence of a more stable structure. In the US, for example, we calculate that milder shocks have been responsible for around 80% of the reduction in output variability between interwar and postwar periods, while a more stable structure is responsible for the remaining 20%.     

Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939

Did the gold standard diminish macroeconomic volatility? Supporters thought so, critics thought not, and theory offers ambiguous messages. Hard regimes like the gold standard limit monetary shocks by tying policymakers' hands; but exchange-rate inflexibility compromises shock absorption in a world of real disturbances and nominal stickiness. A model shows how lack of flexibility affects the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks. Evidence from the late nineteenth and early twentieth century exposes a dramatic change. The classical gold standard did absorb shocks, but the interwar gold standard did not, supporting the view that the interwar gold standard was a poor regime choice.     

French textile specialisation in long run perspective (1836–1938): trade policy as industrial policy

Abstract

This article concerns textile industry dynamics. Using a new database covering French international trade between 1836 and 1938, it focuses on France’s specialisation in various textiles. It demonstrates, for the first time, the major influence of trade policy on the French textile trade during the first globalisation. Tariffs appear to be key factors in specialisation, measured by the Lafay Index and intra-industry trade in textiles. By analysing changes in tariffs between textile raw materials and finished textiles and decorrelation between tariffs, we show that an effective trade protection approach was applied by successive French governments in order to sustain the industrial competitiveness of textile firms. Such trade policy slowed down textile de-specialisation in silk and wool fabrics until World War One.     

EFFECT OF TEXTILE QUOTA RESTRICTIONS ON U.S. COTTON TEXTILE IMPORTS BETWEEN 1964 AND 1973

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of U.S. cotton textile quotas on cotton textiles imported into the U.S. between 1964 and 1973. The findings showed that cotton imports requiring more processing stages had significantly greater 10-year average prices than other groups. Changes in the dollar value of imported cotton textiles during the decade have mainly occurred because of an increase in the average prices rather than resulting from a redistribution of imports from low to high average price groups. The weakening correlation between changes in the dollar value and in the quantity of high unit value groups indicated that the control on quantity has not precluded increases in total dollar value of imports in higher processing stages, especially since 1970. Since fabrics with a relatively stable average price accounted for the major importation of cotton textiles during the 1964–1973 period, the overall control by quantity in this decade was still quite good, even though average prices of apparel were rising.     

Postwar Japanese Cotton Textile Investment in Brazil, 1955-1980

The literature suggests that cotton textiles should be unattractivefor foreign direct investment (FDI). The product is largelyundifferentiated; sellers need an intimate knowledge of localmarkets; and textiles use process technology, which multinationalfirms cannot monopolize. Indeed, since the 1970s, cotton textileshas been one of the few industries in Brazil in which localcapital dominates, joint ventures prevail, and American firmsare almost completely absent. Yet, between 1955 and the mid-1970s,Brazil saw significant foreign direct investment in textilesfrom Japanese firms. There were two successive waves of Japaneseinvestment in the Brazilian cotton textile industry. The firstran from the mid-1950s to the early 1960s. The second took placefrom the late 1960s to the mid-1970s. Four Japanese textilefirms participated in the first wave—Kanebo, Toyobo, Tsuzuki,and Unitika. Four more—Daiwa, Kurabo, Nisshinbo, and Omi—participatedin the second wave.     

Perceptions of fibre types: a cross-cultural study into the effects of textile education

Abstract The study used semantic differential grids generated by consumers to compare perceptions of silk, cotton, nylon and polyester for use in (a) sportshirts and (b) ladies' slips. Student groups in the UK and Canada were surveyed both before and after an introductory course in textiles. Silk was the most preferred fibre for slips, and cotton for sportshirts. In general, the synthetic fibres and in particular nylon were viewed with disfavour. Both sets of student responses were broadly similar, although the degree of agreement was less strong than that found between English and Australian students in a comparable study. Perceptions remained relatively unchanged after a unit of textiles. The results of this work raise issues about the generally negative perceptions of synthetic fibres, which contrasts strongly with their current high level of use in clothing.     

Sackheim,Maxwell. My First 65 Years in Advertising. Blue Ridge Summit,Pennsylvania: Tab Books, 1975

Abstract

Elliott White Springs took over his family's old cotton mills in the early years of the Great Depression. During World War II he decided that the mill would profit more from producing finished cotton textiles and textile products. Immediately following World War II he launched his Springmaid brand of finished textiles with ads that shocked the ad industry in 1948 through 1959. Periodicals reporting his efforts at the time were highly critical of Springs' ads; however, Springs' strategy and ad tactics brought increased sales and brand name awareness for Springmaid.

Springs' ads, and even the criticism they generated, have been neglected by advertising historians. The author believes advertising writers have overlooked a true leader, perhaps a genius at the time, in the development of advertising practice. This article advocates the work of Springs as worthy of inclusion in the literature of the history of noteworthy and successful advertising.     

还原染料市场和新型高品质还原染料

还原染料是一类重要的棉用染料。本文阐述了它的市场近况和功能性特点。为了提高其匀染性开放成功新型高品质还原染料，并介绍了其特点。它们对调整染料产品结构和提高纺织吕的附加价值具有重要的作用。     

MOISTURE STUDIES IN THE DOMESTIC ENVIRONMENT

In an attempt to ascertain the measure of agreement as to what constitutes dryness in textile goods following laundering and during domestic storage, a series of trials were carried out employing a large sample of testers. Each was asked to register a decision, whether damp or dry, for articles in wool, cotton and poly-cotton (67% polyester, 33% cotton). These articles were of known moisture contents, measured as percentage moisture regains, following exposure to controlled atmospheres ranging between 0 r.h. and 95% r.h. Considerable variations in dampness perception were recorded between individual testers and results differed with the fibre content; poly-cotton presented the most difficulties. Nevertheless it was possible to discern for each textile, a moisture content band below which goods could be declared acceptably dry. Implications for the indoor drying and storage of laundered articles were reviewed. Dryness acceptable to the majority (90% of the sample) could be achieved within a normal indoor atmosphere (50% r.h., 20°C) for poly-cotton but not for wool or cotton. For these, a reduced humidity or an elevated temperature would be required, necessitating the expenditure of energy such as is commonly available in the domestic airing cupboard. Results were applied to a psychometric chart to make recommendations for effective temperatures within such cupboards.     

Entrepreneurial leadership in the Meiji cotton spinners' early conceptualisation of global competition

The superior competitiveness of the Japanese cotton industry became so obvious in the interwar period. The sources of the Japanese competitive advantage have thus collected considerable scholarly interest. A series of past studies stressed the significance of planned coordination and managerial innovations within the industry as a whole, and this involved their findings that the leading spinners and trading companies realised the efficient coordination. This paper inquires into the Meiji industrial leaders' conceptualisation of the new nature of entrepreneurial management. This entails an analysis of their early entrepreneurial leadership in the 1880s that provided the developing industry with a long-range plan for exponential growth since then. The essence of industrial competitiveness resided in the noticeable cognitive commonality in their sustainable core competence for the upcoming global competition.     

The Politics of Protection: An Institutional Approach to Government–Industry Relations in the British and United States Cotton Industries, 1945–73

Internationally, the establishment of the GATT marked the beginning of a shift to greater trade liberalism. Against this background the governments of developed economies have generally treated textiles as a special case. This essay focuses on the differing level of political bargaining power exerted by the cotton industry interest groups in Britain and the United States, in their quest for protection, since 1945. It demonstrates that, to understand why pressure groups in the United States gained more concessions than those in Britain, it is necessary to consider the differing institutional and political environments in which they operated and the historical forces which shaped them.     

中国纺织品出口的后发优势分析

加入WTO后,我国纺织品贸易的国内国际环境发生巨大变化,纺织品出口企业受到了巨大冲击。我国纺织品虽然具有比较优势,但并不具有较强的竞争优势,要实现我国从纺织品出口大国向纺织品出口强国的转变,就必须从技术和制度两方面发挥我国纺织品的后发优势,把我国纺织品具有的比较优势转变为真正的出口竞争优势。     

Barriers to ‘industrialisation’ for interwar British retailing? The case of Marks & Spencer Ltd

Research on international differences in retail productivity has highlighted formidable environmental barriers to the ‘industrialisation’ of mass retailing as a driver of declining British interwar productivity growth in this sector (and in services more generally). We examine evidence for such barriers, using a case study of a firm that built its interwar expansion strategy on ‘American’ retail methods – Marks & Spencer (M&S). We find that, rather than facing barriers to the adoption of American mass retail practices, M&S reaped major productivity gains from this process. This adds further evidence to an emerging literature rejecting the barriers to industrialisation thesis for retailing.     

基于显微镜观察与化学溶解相结合的多组分纺织品快速成分鉴别方法

根据纤维本身的外观特征及溶解特性,结合使用不同的溶剂按照一定的溶解顺序,总结出一种显微镜观察与化学溶解相结合方便实用、快速有效、检测面广的多组分纺织品纤维成分鉴别方法。并以实例的形式解释了该方法的操作步骤,证明了其实用性和有效性。     

What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?

In recent policy debates some have argued that expansionary monetary policy in Japan can increase real output in Japan and in Japan's neighbors, while others have warned that it is a beggar-thy-neighbor policy. In this paper we estimate structural vector autoregressions to assess the effects of Japanese monetary policy shocks. We find that the effects of Japanese monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic variation in East Asia have been modest and difficult to reconcile with the beggar-thy-neighbor view. We estimate that the Asian crisis was preceded by expansionary monetary policy shocks in Japan, but we fail to find support for the view that these shocks contributed to the crisis.     

The Importance of Global Shocks for National Policymakers – Rising Challenges for Sustainable Monetary Policies

This paper analyses the importance of global shocks for the global economic developments and national policymakers from a novel perspective. On the one hand, we examine whether global factors convey additional information about monetary conditions not summarised by national aggregates. More specifically, we keep an eye on the question whether domestic monetary policies have become less effective in the wake of financial globalisation. We adopt a FAVAR framework to derive structural shocks on a worldwide level and their impact on other global and also national variables. We estimate our macromodel using quarterly data from Q1 1984 to Q4 2012 for the G7 countries plus the euro area. According to our results, global liquidity shocks significantly influence the global economy at the commodity price level. However, some other common shocks originating from house prices and GDP play a role at the global level as well.     

Oil shocks and external balances

We provide estimates of the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of oil exporters' and oil importers' external balances, including the oil trade balance, the non-oil trade balance, the current account, capital gains, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA). First, we show that the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the non-oil trade balance. Our results provide evidence of an intermediate degree of international financial integration. Second, we document the presence of large and systematic valuation effects in response to these shocks. Valuation effects overall tend to cushion the effect of oil demand and supply shocks on the NFA positions of oil exporters and oil importers. Third, we quantify the overall importance of global business cycle demand shocks as well as oil-market specific demand and supply shocks for external balances.     

AGGREGATE SUPPLY,DOMESTIC ABSORPTION,AND TERMS OF TRADE: A STRUCTURAL DECOMPOSITION OF THE U.S. TRADE BALANCE

Using an intertemporal model as a reference, this article decomposes U.S. trade balance movements into parts driven by supply shocks, demand shocks, and relative price shocks. In identifying structural shocks, we propose a new type of long-run restriction that extends the previous structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) literature, and demonstrate its relationship to other identifying schemes. Empirical results indicate that relative price shocks and demand shocks are important in the short run while demand and supply shocks dominate in the long run in explaining the U.S. trade balance.     

面对非关税壁垒 我国纺织品服装出口的对策分析

当前,非关税壁垒正成为全球纺织品服装贸易的障碍。尤其是我国加入WTO后,纺织品服装出口必将面临进口市场非关税壁垒的种种限制。在这种形势下,我国纺织品服装出口企业要想保持原有市场份额和扩大出口,必须寻求新的经营贸易对策。     

我国出口退税政策的贸易与经济效应研究——基于局部均衡模型的分析

通过将出口退税政策变量纳入局部均衡COMPAS模型,从产业层面上分析出口退税政策如何影响进出口行业的产出、贸易、收益等经济指标,并利用中国纺织服装品对美国出口贸易的有关数据,实证模拟中国出口退税政策变化对中美两国纺织业的生产、贸易和收入的影响。结果表明:平均而言,出口退税率每提高1个百分点,中国纺织品出口美国的价格将大约下降0.93%,而中国纺织品对美国出口量将增加2.86%左右,全行业收入大约增加1.83%;而美国纺织行业的产出减少1.9%,全行业收入减少2.2%。