美国重振制造业战略对我国可能的影响及我国的对策研究

重振制造业是美国对全球经济失衡和本国经济困境的战略回应,可称为美国版的转变经济发展方式和调整经济结构。奥巴马政府为重振制造业设计了完整的政策框架。美国重振制造业战略通过贸易、投资、外汇储备、人民币汇率、政府采购、节能减排和知识产权保护等途径,将对我国经济产生诸多方面的影响。无论从短期还是长期看,美国重振制造业战略对我国经济发展方式的转变都是挑战大于机遇。就我国而言,应从美国重振制造业战略中得到两点启示:一是制造业乃大国立国之本,二是中产者乃国家之福。我国应对美国影响的根本之道还在国内体制机制改革。具体而言,应从下大力气调整收入分配差距、进一步推动出口市场多元化战略、选择人民币汇率改革恰当路径、构筑有利于维护自主创新的政府采购制度和多管齐下推动节能减排等方面入手,推动我国经济战略转型,应对美国重振制造业给我国可能带来的不利影响。     

美国战略石油储备补仓策略分析及对我国的启示

战略石油储备是能源战略的重要组成部分,世界众多发达国家都把石油储备作为一项重要战略加以部署实施。当前,我国战略石油储备正开展二期工程建设,即将启动三期工程。国际油价大幅下滑,为我国战略石油储备的补仓提供了机遇。本文通过梳理以往美国战略石油储备补仓的做法,分析美国战略石油储备补仓策略,并结合我国战略石油储备的实际情况,为我国开展战略石油储备补仓工作提出相关建议。     

齐鲁证券有限责任公司加强人才储备的对策

人才储备战略对齐鲁证券有限公司（以下称齐鲁证券）遂行人才强企战略起着重要的作用。该文通过总结齐鲁证券人才储备工作的现状，分析其在人才储备中存在的问题，给出人才储备、培养的对策，完善齐鲁证券的人才储备方案，为公司的人才资源梯队化建设做出一定的贡献。     

双循环背景下“两业”融合的国际经验与启示

目前,双循环已经成为中国社会经济发展的大战略。制造业作为中国的立国之本,是内外循环的核心基点,而先进制造业和现代服务业融合,是中国制造业深度提升的重要路径。本文从美国、德国、日本三个国家制造业和服务业深度融合推动制造业发展的政策经验和实践经验两个角度切入,总结出以顶层设计为指导、以多方参与为主体、以科技创新为动力、以人才储备为基础的成功经验,并基于中国制造业高质量发展的四点优势,从引导"两业"融合理念、建立公共服务平台、多维动态选择路径、培养发展数字人才和完善"两业"支撑体系等五个方面,提出其对中国"两业"深度融合推动制造业高质量发展的启示。     

美国再工业化对我国制造业出口的影响研究

美国再工业化是美国为度过金融危机,回归国内实体经济而提出的政策。在我国制造业转型之际,美国制造业的发展势必对我国的制造业,尤其是对制造业的出口产生影响。本文分析了关国再工业化的实质,并对其给我国制造业出口造成的影响进行了分析。最后提出了切实可行的对策,政府应该大力推进贸易方式转变、提升出口结构、大力发展战略新兴产业,制造企业则应该提升企业的自主创新能力、加快培养高技术人才、实施品牌战略等。     

微笑曲线理论对中国发展智能制造的启示研究——以制造业为例

以制造业为例分析了中国智能制造产业发展现状及存在的问题,包括智能化水平低、智能制造产业初步形成、重点领域人才供给滞后等,运用微笑曲线理论对制造业实现智能化发展提出加强人才储备,推动劳动力结构升级、政府加强政策引导,鼓励企业创新、优先发展智能装备制造业等建议。     

人才储备——企业永续经营的基础

人力资源储备是现代企业追求永续经营与发展而必须长期研究的课题,而在多数中小企业中,人才储备则远远没有提上议事日程,影响了企业的长远发展。对影响人才储备的原因进行分析,进而提出合理储备人才的措施与注意事项,为企业可持续发展,提供充足的后备力量。     

美国战略石油储备时机选择及启示

本文通过对美国战略石油储备建立过程的分析,指出美国在建立战略石油储备时机选择上的失误及原因。国际油价的变化存在着周期性,目前正处于油价高峰期。我国应当吸取美国的经验教训,利用国际油价变化周期,选择在油价较低的时期进行我国战略石油储备。     

乌克兰危机、通胀压力与美国释放战略石油储备

2021年下半年至2022年上半年美国拜登政府三次释放战略石油储备。第一次释放的主要动因是遏制原油价格上涨。乌克兰危机爆发后,美国接连两次宣布释放战略石油储备,各界均认为地缘政治目标成为美国释放战略石油储备的重要动因,为降低俄罗斯进行军事行动的财政能力,需进一步制裁俄罗斯的能源出口。但是,加大能源制裁力度,不仅危及欧洲的能源消费,也将进一步加剧市场对能源供应中断的担忧,从而引发美国国内的汽油价格上涨。在美国国内原油产能不能迅速增加、国际原油生产者联合行动效果不佳以及国内汽油价格不断上升的形势下,拜登政府只能继续加大释放战略石油储备的力度。本文认为,与地缘政治目标相比,美国国内因汽油价格持续上升造成的通胀压力以及由此造成的对中期选举的担忧,是拜登政府释放战略石油储备时更为紧迫和重要的推动力。美国进行战略石油储备的最终目标还是要回到应对供应短缺问题。在能源制裁背景下,中美之间能源合作的逻辑也在发生大的变化,将与更多的议题联系在一起。     

德、美、日应对制造业人才挑战的新举措及启示——基于再工业化背景的分析

金融危机之后,发达国家相继提出振兴本国制造业的再工业化战略,我国也提出了以智能制造为主攻方向的"中国制造2025"战略。以德、美、日为代表的制造业发达国家,根据本国国情,采取了一系列新举措来应对再工业化的制造业人才挑战。学习借鉴德、美、日等发达国家的新举措,我国应开发培育潜在人力资源,扩大制造业从业人员数量;以世界水平为目标提高制造业人才培养水平;构建多元化经费筹资体系,增加对职业教育投入;开发相互沟通衔接的资格认证制度,实现制造业人才的高效利用;完善人才评价、激励和流动机制,形成良好的人才发展环境,以培养"中国制造2025"急需的制造业人才队伍,加快推动我国制造业智能转型。     

Urban development,excessive entry of firms and wage inequality in developing countries

This paper examines the short and long-term effects of urbanisation, via favourable urban development policies, on income distribution and social welfare for a developing country, in which the urban manufacturing sector is characterised by imperfect competition and free entry. Urbanisation shifts rural workers to the highly productive urban sector, while causing production in urban firms to expand because of scale economies. However, urbanisation may worsen wage inequality between skilled and unskilled labour in the short term. In the long term, urbanisation can attract new firms to the urban sector and favourable urban development policies may result in excessive entry of firms, which can amplify wage inequality in the economy. This entry-amplifying effect is confirmed empirically, especially for low and lower-middle-income countries. If the entry effect is not considered, the impact of urbanisation on wage inequality could be understated by 13% for low and lower-middle-income countries.     

A U.S. Manufacturing Strategy for the 21st Century: What Policies Yield National Sector Competitiveness?

The national debate over the fate of U.S. manufacturing is back, with some asking the question: Is manufacturing dead? However, the U.S. manufacturing sector has been making a surprising comeback and added jobs in 2010 and 2011 following 12 straight years of declines. Utilizing economic data, coupled with qualitative manufacturing industry information, offers a unique opportunity for the authors to present a pragmatic and strategic national manufacturing strategy based on the realities of a continually evolving R&D/high-technology-based U.S. manufacturing sector.     

Jobs and Exposure to International Trade within the Service Sector in Sweden

To establish in which service industries there is international trade (or it may potentially exist), we calculate locational Ginis for different industries. The basic idea is that from this measure of regional concentration of different activities within a country we can identify industries where there appears to be regional trade, and hence also a potential for international trade. Based on our method, we find that: (i) the number of employed in tradable service appears to be at least as large as in the manufacturing sector, (ii) tradable service is much more skill intensive than manufacturing, and (iii) lately, the employment in tradable service has increased substantially. We argue that the last mentioned result is consistent with the substantial growth of skilled labour in Sweden since the mid‐1990s (Rybczynski effect) and factors leading to increased relative demand for skilled labour. Particularly, increased competition from and offshoring to low‐wage countries seem recently to have had a considerable impact on the creation of skilled jobs and the displacement of less skilled jobs in the tradable sector in Sweden. Furthermore, we apply a similar method as for industries to identify tradable occupations. Using our classification of tradable industries and tradable occupations in a Mincer type wage equation, we find that workers in such industries and occupations receive a wage premia of 12–13 per cent.     

Is American manufacturing in decline?

There is a widespread view that American manufacturing is in decline. This view reflects many factors. First, real GDP growth during the current business expansion has been the weakest in the post-World War II period. Second, over the decade from 2000 to 2010 manufacturing employment declined by about 6 million. Third, persistent manufacturing trade deficits have led many observers to conclude that U.S. competitiveness has eroded. This paper discusses these arguments and suggests that, instead, U.S. manufacturing is a leading growth sector and has remained strongly competitive internationally. We show that traditional domestic economic forces adequately explain recent trends in U.S. manufacturing output and employment growth. The recent reduction in the corporate income tax rate may further boost the fortunes of the U.S. manufacturing sector, although this favorable development could be offset by a more restrictive international trade regime.     

The rise of the machines: Capital imports and real manufacturing wages in 57 nations

Outward-oriented policy reform has attracted a large number of academics to the study of the trade-labour market nexus. One of these fields has focused on capital intensive (machinery) imports and its effect on manufacturing wages. The skill-enhancing-trade (SET) hypothesis was put forth to explain a potential relationship where an inflow of capital imports results in increased demand for skilled labour and decreased that of unskilled labour, and thus resulted in a rise in skilled wages and a decrease in their unskilled counterparts. This study revisits this hypothesis with a panel from the manufacturing sector of 57 nations. We improve upon previous studies in a number of ways. We add developed nations to the sample and examine capital imports from rich countries as well as the rest of the world. This takes into account the prominence of vertical production networks in international trade. We adhere closely to the neo-classical trade model and employ definitions of skilled and unskilled workers that capture the production process of particular items. Finally, we fit a robust dynamic panel data model that accounts for the endogeneity of the determinants of trade and wages. In this way we test whether the SET hypothesis is generally applicable as opposed to previous studies which use an ad hoc selection of countries and variables. We find that the SET hypothesis is not driving changes in manufacturing wages. Instead, worker productivity and GDP per capita explain these labour market outcomes.     

Employee service abandonment in offshore operations: A case study of a US multinational in India

Indian Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) exports industry has witnessed an exponential growth over the last few years. This has been accompanied by a shortage of talented skilled workers to serve the BPO sector. Attracting and retaining talented employees has become the chief challenge of HR departments in the BPO industry. This study examines the demographic antecedents of job abandonment among call centre employees in India using a large firm level data. The theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.     

Das Handwerk als Zubringer für Fachkräfte in das deutsche Innovationssystem

Vocational training in the German crafts sector traditionally provides skilled workers to other industries. It is shown that this fact contributes to the overall innovativeness of the German economy. Outside of the crafts sector, many employees with craft qualifications are found in highly innovative industries and innovative working environments. Especially in research intensive manufacturing companies, employees with craft qualifications are often engaged in activities that are characterized by a higher degree of complexity. This provides some evidence that vocational education and training in the crafts sector generates positive externalities that benefit other parts of the economy.     

Mind the Gender Wage Gap – the Impact of Trade and Competition on Sectoral Wage Differences

This paper examines differences between women’s and men’s wages in 18 selected OECD countries in the period 1970 to 2005. The study is based on 12 manufacturing sector‐ and skill‐specific sets of panel data on the gender wage gap. We apply a system generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator to the extended version of the conditional gender wage gap convergence equation, controlling for sector concentration and industry‐specific measures of openness using a difference‐in‐difference approach: trade‐affected concentrated sectors versus trade‐affected competitive sectors. The results indicate that: (i) an increase in sector concentration is associated with wage gap growth; (ii) both import and export penetration are associated with a reduction of the high‐skill gender wage gap growth in concentrated industries; (iii) there is evidence of a widening impact of trade on the medium and low‐skill occupational gender wage gap growth in less competitive industries; (iv) institutional regulations of the labour market have an impact on the development of the gender wage gap: for highly‐skilled labour an increase in labour market regulation raises the growth of the gender wage gap, while for medium‐ and low‐skilled workers, it lowers it.     

美国制造业重振与中国的应对策略

祸起于虚拟经济的2008年金融海啸给美国实体经济带来毁灭性的破坏，出于全球经济格局衍变和解决国内现实问题的需要，美国制定和实施了一系列重振制造业的政策，并且取得了较好的效果。我国应在借鉴主要发达国家应对美国重振制造业的经验的基础上，结合本国的实际情况从制造业规划制定、转变经济发展方式、人才培育、税收和融资、竞争方向、国际规则利用等方面采取措施积极应对。     

Which manufacturing industries and sectors are most vulnerable to Brexit?

When the UK leaves the EU, trade arrangements between the UK and EU will change. Most of the options for future UK‐EU relationships currently under discussion imply increased trade barriers, which will reduce trade and also have effects on output and prices. In this paper, we use a multi‐market partial equilibrium model to analyse the vulnerability of 122 manufacturing industries to Brexit. In all five Brexit scenarios we model, there is an overall reduction in UK manufacturing output. Output grows in some industries but at the expense of higher consumer and intermediate goods prices. High tech and medium–high tech sectors are more at risk of a decline in domestic production than lower tech sectors. In most areas of the country, demand for high‐skilled workers falls more than for medium and low‐skilled workers.