世经动态

<正> 新日签署双边自由贸易协定新加坡和日本于1月13日正式签署了新日双边自由贸易协定。新加坡是第一个与日本签署双边自由贸易协定的国家。该协定不仅是一个旨在促进贸易与投资自由化的自由贸易协定,它还突破传统自由贸易协定的范围,涵盖面非常广,包括在科学与技术、通信技术、金融服务、旅游业和人力资源发展这些主要领域进行合作,从而使新日享受到比签订传统自由贸易协定更大的好处。     

TTIP:美国推行“新生代”自由贸易协定的新发展

美国和欧盟之间的《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴协定》(TTIP)于2013年6月启动谈判,这是美国推行新生代自由贸易协定的最新发展。《跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴协定》设定的高标准,将会影响全球贸易体系的规则制定,并影响包括中国在内的新兴经济体。中国一方面以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》等传统自由贸易协定与新生代自由贸易协定博弈;另一方面也应积极研究并吸收新规则中的合理内容。     

参与区域贸易自由化问题研究

经济全球化日益发展,国内市场经济与周边国家间的经济交流以及市场贸易上发生了很大的改变。我国经济参与下的经济贸易相关协定力度逐渐增大,各种贸易均是建立在自由贸易的基础之上。始终坚持了自由贸易,这符合当前世界经济交流规范,但是在参与区域贸易自由化协定方面,我国仍然存在着各种问题,亟需得到有效的解决。本文下面就主要从我国参与区域贸易自由化的相关问题进行探讨,并且提出了一些可行性措施,推动区域贸易自由化进程。     

解析欧盟韩国自由贸易协定

2011年7月1日欧盟韩国自由贸易协定生效实施。该协定成为各自经济体与贸易伙伴签署的最大的自由贸易协定。该协定既是双边密切经济关系的需要,也是各自实施FTA战略的结果。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定是迄今为止在全球范围很全面的贸易自由化协定,开放深度和广度远远超过世界贸易组织。欧盟韩国自由贸易协定的出现推动了区域经济一体化的进程。韩国目前在中日韩三国各自实施FTA战略上占据了有利的地位。     

中国与新西兰FTA建立前后双边货物贸易比较

《中华人民共和国政府与新西兰政府自由贸易协定》是两国第一个涵盖货物贸易、服务贸易、投资等多个领域的自由贸易协定,通过对《协定》签署前后的数据进行比较分析,可以看出自由贸易区的建立减少了贸易壁垒,带动了贸易效应和比较优势的发挥,从而推动了双边货物贸易规模的扩大;随着两国自由贸易区的深入发展,贸易效应将得到进一步的展现。     

自由贸易协定对双向FDI协调发展的影响

作为国际资本流动的重要形式，双向FDI协调发展有助于提升经济发展质量，提高国际竞争力。而自由贸易协定可优化全球产业结构和资源配置，对双向FDI协调发展具有重要意义。基于2008—2021年我国与26个经济体的贸易数据，以自由贸易协定为准自然实验，通过构建多期DID模型，实证检验自由贸易协定对双向FDI协调发展的影响效应与作用机制。研究发现，自由贸易协定能显著促进双向FDI协调发展，且这种促进作用不存在时滞性；自由贸易协定对双向FDI协调发展的促进作用具有异质性，对发展中经济体、WTO-X条款和知识密集型行业的促进作用更强，对发达经济体、WTO+条款、劳动密集型行业和资本密集型行业的促进作用较弱；自由贸易协定可通过推动数字贸易和提升全球价值链地位促进双向FDI协调发展，即数字贸易和全球价值链地位具有部分中介作用。因此，为借助自由贸易协定促进双向FDI协调发展，应加速自由贸易协定深化落地，营造差异化国际直接投资环境，培育新的数字贸易增长点。     

区域性自由贸易协定对双边贸易流量影响的量化研究——基于机器学习方法的分析

区域性贸易深度一体化是当前世界经济贸易发展的主要趋势,区域性自由贸易协定(FTA)的签订与重订是这一趋势的重要表现形式.为量化区域贸易协定对双边贸易流量的影响,区别于普遍用于外贸领域的引力模型,本文分别采用机器学习领域中的树模型XGBOOST与线性模型Ridge,选择FTA深度指标作为衡量FTA异质性的核心变量,添加协...     

高度重视FTA中投资定义条款发展趋势

缔结双边、多边贸易和投资协定是推动经济全球化的重要措施,总体上使参与国受益。截至2013年1月,向世界贸易组织通报的区域贸易协议共有546个,其中354个已实施（大多数为自由贸易协定）。几乎所有世贸组织成员都参加了一个或多个区域贸易协定。截至2011年底,国际投资协定达到3164项,其中,2833项双边投资协定（BITs）、331项“其他国际投资协定”（主要包括涵盖投资条款的自由贸易协定（FTAs）、经济伙伴关系协定和区域协定）。     

区域与双边视角下数字贸易规则的协定模板与核心议题

在全球数字治理进程中，区域与双边贸易协定已经成为推动构建数字贸易新规则的重要方式。本文在梳理全球数字自由贸易协定/区域贸易协定(FTAs/RTAs)网络的基础上，全面分析与比较了“美式模板”“欧式模板”“中式模板”和“南太平洋模板”协定在数字贸易规则领域体现的理念、内容与特点。论文还重点剖析了主要国家在数字产品类、数据流动类、知识产权保护类和隐私安全类四大议题中存在的主要分歧及其背后的战略目的与利益。最后，结合“中式模板”协定的现状为中国提出了参与全球数字规则构建的策略与建议。     

如何为输新西兰产品签发优惠性产地证书——写在中国－新西兰自贸区优惠原产地证书开签之际

2008年4月7日,历时三年有余、经过了15轮艰难谈判的<中国-新西兰自由贸易协定>,在两国政府领导人的见证下成功签署,并于2008年10月1日起正式生效.<中国-新西兰自由贸易协定>(以下简称<协定>)涵盖了货物贸易、服务贸易、投资等诸多领域,是我国与其他国家签署的第一个全面的自由贸易协定,也是我国与发达国家达成的第一个自由贸易协定.     

国际贸易规则重构之非正式规则研究

在经济全球化的大背景下,国际贸易模式正经历着深刻变革,加速了国际贸易规则的重构。非正式规则作为传统多边国际贸易协议以及区域性自由贸易协定的补充和调整,其超越了传统国际造法的范畴,没有法律约束力,却为市场主要参与者高度认同且普遍遵守,因此能够有效避免和解决国际贸易争端、维持国际贸易秩序的稳定,并且免受国家政治、军事、经济等实力的影响。对非正式规则的研究,有助于我国参与到国际贸易规则重构中去。     

Influence of International Trade Agreements on International Business: A Conceptual Model

The article provides a conceptual model, developed from analyzing over fifty trade agreement related research studies published during the last decade, which allows international business scholars to explore the influence of trade agreements (custom unions, free trade agreements, preferential trade agreements, regional trade agreements) on foreign market entry strategies. This model is an attempt to develop IB theory to address the current research gap in this very narrow but important allied field. Empirical findings generated by interviewing dairy produce exporters in New Zealand reveal a remarkable connection between TAs and IB, with TAs found to influence the regulative environment of participating countries, which may in turn reduce the regulative distance between member nations. The contribution provides a basis for IB researchers to explore this connection in multiple industries/countries.     

中国自贸区建设现状及其对策研究

近年来,中国加快了自贸区建设的推进速度,截至2019年底,已签订了17个自贸协定。相对而言,中国签订的自贸协定规则覆盖面还比较小、规则标准还比较低。与此同时,以CPTPP、USMCA协定为代表的高标准自贸协定,形成了数字贸易规则、知识产权规则、国有企业规则等多个非传统领域规则。我国应坚持长期宏观战略利益高于短期经济利益、先广覆盖后高标准价值导向和大型新兴经济体与发达经济体自贸谈判并重的原则,从组织上建立直属于最高决策机构的高标准自贸区战略机构、加强对非传统领域议题的整理与研究、建立针对新规则的损益衡量指标体系、健全高标准自贸区谈判的产业受损补偿机制,加快推进我国高标准自贸区建设。     

On the Path to Trade Liberalisation: Political Regimes in Trade Negotiations

The number of free trade agreements (FTA) has increased substantially since 1990 despite efforts to promote multilateral trade liberalisation. While there is evidence on the determinants of FTA formation, still little is known on the processing of trade agreements, particularly regarding the pre‐implementation duration. This paper fills the research gap by using event data on the negotiation, the signing and the implementation of trade agreements. Duration analysis is employed to examine the connection between regime types and the lengths of the negotiation and the ratification stages. The results support the claim that higher levels of democratisation are associated with shorter negotiations, while political constraints lead to delays. Moreover, the depth of an agreement matters: a higher number of WTO‐X and WTO+ provisions do not only prolong the negotiation stage, but also the subsequent ratification. Against the background of potential anticipation effects of trade agreements, these results are of interest for exporting firms that assess the timing of implementation.     

Negotiating free trade

We develop a dynamic bargaining model in which a leading country endogenously decides whether to sequentially negotiate free trade agreements with subsets of countries or engage in simultaneous multilateral bargaining with all countries at once. We show how the structure of coalition externalities shapes the choice between sequential and multilateral bargaining, and we identify circumstances in which the grand coalition is the equilibrium outcome, leading to worldwide free trade. A model of international trade is then used to illustrate equilibrium outcomes and how they depend on the structure of trade and protection. Global free trade is not achieved when the political-economy motive for protection is sufficiently large. Furthermore, the model generates both “building bloc” and “stumbling bloc” effects of preferential trade agreements. In particular, we describe an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are permitted to form (a building bloc effect), and an equilibrium in which global free trade is attained only when preferential trade agreements are forbidden (a stumbling bloc effect). The analysis identifies conditions under which each of these outcomes emerges.     

中国自贸区战略实施的现状、效果、趋势及未来策略

随着全球经贸规则的加速重构,我国自贸协定的谈判和签署步伐明显加快,且签署协定的开放水平不断提升,协定实施对双边贸易也产生了显著的促进效果。未来,中国的自贸协定谈判将呈现出覆盖范围更广、开放层次更高、协定对象向重点国家和地区突破的态势。为了实现"形成覆盖全球的高标准自贸区网络"的目标,我国应通过积极参与构建超大型自贸区、将自贸区网络建设与"一带一路"倡议相结合、深化自身改革提供制度支撑、综合考量宏观收益开展自贸谈判、设计兼具稳定性和灵活性的自贸协定"范式"等策略来推进自贸区建设。     

Do Trade Agreements Stimulate International Trade Differently? Evidence from 296 Trade Agreements

In a seminal article, Rose (2004) found that the assumed positive impact of the WTO on international trade was questionable. This finding has been scrutinised and modified in subsequent research, using different data sets, econometric methods and separating the WTO from other forms of trade agreements. A key characteristic of the subsequent literature is the rather simplistic way in which trade agreements are treated whereby all trade agreements are lumped together. Trade agreements come, however, in many different forms and shapes. This study addresses these differences in trade agreements. Using a unique database of 296 trade agreements, we distinguish 17 trade‐related policy domains and indicate whether the agreements contain legally enforceable commitments. This extensive and novel taxonomy of trade agreements enables us to allow for the possible heterogeneity of the impact of trade agreements on international trade. Using a gravity model, we find that trade agreement heterogeneity indeed matters for international trade and that countries experience significant trade increases due to comprehensive trade agreements even if not all participants are in the WTO.     

美国的双边自由贸易协定与环境问题

从进入21世纪以来,美国积极投入到双边自由贸易协定的谈判之中,并且已取得了令人瞩目的成果。在这些协定中都设有专门的“环境”一章来协调签字国之间的环境问题。本文分析了美国将贸易政策的重心转向双边自由贸易协定的原因,以美澳自由贸易协定为例介绍了“环境”部分的内容,并分析了美国在双边自由贸易协定中规定环境条款的原因,以及对我国的启示。     

The Most and the Least Favoured Nations: Norway's Trade Policy in Perspective

This article reviews some recent developments in Norway's trade policy, in the light of the WTO's Trade Policy Review of Norway, 2004. A main focus is on the relationship between MFN trade policy and Norway's numerous preferential trade arrangements. In spite of a growing number of free trade agreements the paper suggests that Norway's trade regime has not become more discriminatory. The reason is that cuts in MFN tariffs as well as improvements in GSP have eroded preference margins in manufacturing faster than the coverage of free trade agreements has expanded. As a result of liberalisation, the trade regime for manufacturing has become less discriminatory, not more. While Norway is on the whole a liberal‐minded supporter of the world trade system, it has twice in recent history reacted with protectionism. Around 1980, a restrictive quota regime for clothing was implemented. This has later been dismantled, contributing to sharply increased imports from developing countries. For agriculture, Norway has currently high protection, and tariff preferences are limited. It is likely that agricultural protection will be gradually reduced due to the WTO, as well as through free trade agreements and improvements in GSP.     

Free Trade Agreements and Governance of the Global Trading System

This article explores how far free trade agreements (FTAs) have strengthened or weakened global governance of the trading system. We open with an analysis of the altered political and economic context within which countries have come, in recent years, to assign a new importance to regional and bilateral trade agreements in their trade policies. We then consider each of the main provisions included in FTAs and comment on how these may separately affect the management of trade relations. We conclude with some observations of the broader trends affecting global governance that are associated with the spread of trade agreements as a whole.