冷战后美国经济外交中的单边经济制裁

随着冷战的结束,两极对峙终结,国际政治经济结构发生变化,经济外交成为总体外交中最重要的组成部分之一.中国作为一个社会主义国家,奉行独立自主的和平外交政策,主张在平等互利的基础上与各国开展经济外交.在出现经济摩擦的情况下,中国从来都避免采取武力或经济制裁等硬性手段,主张在平等协商和谈判的基础上解决分岐.而作为冷战后世界上唯一的超级大国的美国,受其资本主义经济外交理念的支配,却将经济制裁作为其经济外交政策的核心.经济制裁是把"双刃剑",有可能在国际政治中得以延续.但是如果不转变传统的制裁思维,经济制裁的最终破产又将是历史的必然.     

Inequality in Europe: What can be done? What should be done?

As economic inequality in Europe has continued to rise, it has become the subject of increasing academic attention. What are the drivers of inequality? How does it affect intergenerational economic and social mobility? At what point does inequality become a drag on economic growth or a threat to social order? What economic policy tools are available to reduce inequality? This Forum addresses these and other aspects of this complex and disturbing trend. Case studies of Ireland, Germany and Spain also highlight the impact of economic inequality on individual member states.     

The price of freedom: A Fama–French freedom factor

Economic institutions in-part explain cross-country variation in levels of investment and capital market characteristics. Here, country-level equity returns are related to cross-country differences in economic institutions as measured by an index of economic freedom. The ex-ante level and ex-post change in economic freedom are observed to be country-level equity return factors exhibiting Sharpe ratios greater than that of the value, momentum, and size factors, factors to which change in economic freedom has a low correlation. Fama–MacBeth regressions confirm the economic freedom factor. Finally, the excess return earned from investing in countries with low economic freedom is the price of freedom.     

论国际经济法的渊源

国际经济法的渊源是划分法学学科与其他学科边界的主要标准之一。国际经济法的调整对象是国际经济管理关系,国际经济交易关系不是国际经济法的调整对象,只有调整前者的国际条约、国际习惯、一般法律原则才是国际经济法的渊源;受到国际法约束的国际经济管理法才是国际经济法的渊源。     

The determinants of international migration: Unbundling the role of economic,political and social institutions

International migrants may relocate because of economic, political and social factors in their origin or destination countries. Using global bilateral migration flows from 103 countries over the period 1990–2000, we explore whether emigrants self-select based on economic, political and social institutions. Our study adds social dimension as a potential determinant of migration and separates the pull and push effects of political, economic and social institutions. Our results indicate that economic, political and social institutions are significant pull factors of migration; economic freedom has the most substantial pull effect followed by the political institutions; social institutions have the weakest pull effect on migration. Moreover, economic and social institutions are significant push factors of migration, while political institutions do not show any push effect. Furthermore, educated migrants are more sensitive to the destination economic, political and social institutions than less-educated migrants, and less-educated migrants are more sensitive to the social institutions at the origin.     

Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment

This paper estimates, using Bayesian and global VARs, the spillover effects of unconventional fiscal and monetary policies implemented in the United States and in the Eurozone during the last decade. Consumer confidence and investor sentiment indicators are introduced in the models in order to highlight the signalling channel in the responses to economic policy innovations in times of crisis. Our results reveal that consumer and investor perceptions of innovative economic measures are relevant to study the pass-through of economic policies to the real sector in times of crisis and zero lower bound interest rates. In particular, the signalling channel plays an important role in successful unconventional economic policies. Moreover, if unconventional economic policies have an impact abroad, the effects are similar to those measured in the domestic country/region. Consequently, coordination and transparency are a prerequisite for ensuring short-term growth after a global financial crisis.     

Is globalization what it’s cracked up to be? Economic freedom,corruption, and human development

This paper examines the effect of economic globalization on human development and argues that the relation between economic globalization and human development is mediated by economic freedom and corruption. Findings suggest that economic globalization affects economic freedom positively and corruption negatively. In turn, economic freedom has a positive effect and corruption has a negative effect on human development. All relations are in the hypothesized directions and significant. Research, business, and public policy implications as well as directions for future research are presented.     

Does Economic Diplomacy Work? A Meta‐analysis of Its Impact on Trade and Investment

We review the literature on economic diplomacy and provide a meta‐analysis of 32 empirical studies published in 1986–2011 that deal with the trade and investment impact of economic diplomacy (embassies, consulates, other diplomatic facilities, investment and export promotion offices, trade and state visits). Controlling for differences in research design, methodology, time frame and manner of data, we find a positive and significant effect of economic diplomacy on international economic flows with the exception of state visits and that this is true in a sample of 627 t‐statistics analysed with OLS and for a larger sample of 963 reported significance levels analysed with logit thus illustrating robustness with respect to sample and estimation technique. Our analyses show that reported effects of economic diplomacy on trade and investment in individual studies are sensitive to model specification. The primary studies that investigate only one source country are less likely to report significant positive effects. Compared to other sciences, economic studies are less likely to report significantly positive effects of economic diplomacy. Primary studies lump embassies and consulates (general) into one indicator miss that these instruments differ significantly. Embassies, consulates and agencies should thus be included as separate instruments in future research.     

Economic Patriotism, the Clash of Capitalisms, and State Aid in the European Union

This article analyses the political economy of state aid in the European Union (EU) using the concepts of economic patriotism and models of capitalism. State aid is analysed as a form of economic patriotism, which is conceived here as economic interventions which seek, by a number of means, to advance the perceived economic self-interest of particular groups and actors (firms, workforces, or sectors) defined according to their territorial status. The article argues that the paradox of neo-liberal democracy generated by liberal international markets, overlapping economic governance regimes (such as the EU and the World Trade Organisation), and nationally delimited political mandates presents new problems for policy-makers attempting economic interventions like state aid. Forms of economic patriotism are partly shaped by national institutional and social configurations and state traditions. Within EU economic governance, this generates a ‘clash of capitalisms’ whereby liberal EU anti-trust and competition policy norms proscribe certain state aid and industrial policy measures favoured by some European states. As traditional industrial policy becomes decreasingly viable, new modes of economic patriotic interventionism are enacted within contemporary processes of market-making, and the re-regulatory activity framing European markets. The paper focuses on French state aid responses to the global economic crisis, noting how the retreat of neo-liberal ebullience within the EU provides a conducive environment for resurgent French dirigiste approaches to state aid, indicating that the politics of economic patriotism and state aid will continue to be important features of the European political economic landscape in the years ahead.     

江苏对外贸易与经济增长的实证研究

随着“一带一路”倡议的实施,对外贸易已成为影响经济增长的关键因素。江苏是全国经济发达省份,对外贸易增量迅速。本文以江苏为例,选取1992—2018年江苏相关数据,进行研究。结果表明:江苏进口和出口是经济增长的格兰杰原因,出口会促进经济增长,而进口会对经济增长产生一定的抑制作用。根据实证分析的结果,对如何促进江苏对外贸易发展与经济高质量发展提出建议。     

The role of consumers' attitude towards economic climate in their reaction to ‘PL-only’ assortments: Evidence from the United States and Spain

Retailers’ assortment rationalisation strategies have found an “ally” in the current global economic crisis. Indeed, retail boycotts of individual brands in economic recession contexts are not uncommon in the CPG industry. In fact, many of the consumers who began buying PLs during the economic recession are continuing their PL behaviour post-recession. So, what is the role of the economic climate in consumers’ reaction– in terms of store loyalty – to retailers’ NB delisting decisions? Is it so relevant? This paper examines how consumers’ attitude towards the economic climate influences his/her reaction to retailers’ strategy of offering ‘PL-only’ assortments in the context of an economic slump (Spain) compared to a context of economic recovery (U.S.). To do so, we have designed a controlled online experiment for two large consumer panels in the Spanish and the U.S. markets. Our results suggest that consumers’ acceptance of ‘PL-only’ assortments is a separate phenomenon rather than merely being a “consequence” of the current economic situation. Nevertheless, in an economic recovery, such ‘PL-only’ assortments do not appear to be the best strategy.     

The Business Cycle and Profitability of Trading Strategies

Recent studies show that investor participation in the stock market rises during economic expansion and drops in economic recession. When investor participation is high, investors’ cognitive and behavioral biases are likely to have a strong influence on stock prices. We consider four trading strategies that are based on well-known market anomalies and examine their profitability under different economic conditions. For all four strategies, the portfolios that are formed in the months when the economy is expanding obtain significant profits, whereas the portfolios formed in economic recession months are not profitable. This finding is robust to different ways of classifying recession months.     

A financial market forecast of industrial policy

This paper examines the reaction of foreign equity markets to anticipated changes in economic conditions. The ability of the equity markets to correctly anticipate economic behavior may be influenced by the existence of a national industrial policy designed to enhance economic growth. If market participants can rely on announced Industrial Policy to influence economic behavior, then security returns may lead economic events. To the extent that Industrial Policy is non-existent or inconsistently applied, market returns would not be expected to lead economic changes. This paper tests the hypothesis that Industrial Policy permits equity markets to correctly forecast economic condition.

Data for the United States, United Kingdom, West Germany, and Japan are used in testing for relationships between return on equity and industrial production. The period between 1952 and 1985 is employed in the analysis. The results suggest that the Japanese market is able to consistently anticipate changes in industrial production, while the markets in the remaining three countries are not able to anticipate economic policy.     

Europe's Leading Cities – Success Factors and Policy Perspectives

In Europe, economic activity is concentrated more and more in the major urban centres. At the same time, these cities are in a competition with one another. Across Europe they are contending for investors and qualified workers and searching for the most successful path to a dynamic economic future. Which cities in Europe have made the greatest economic progress in the past? What are the factors that have made some cities more successful than others? And what action can cities take to achieve greater economic growth in the future?     

混业经营下金融发展与经济增长——基于亚洲地区的非稳定面板数据分析

文章使用面板单位根与面板协整方法，实证研究混业经营条件下金融发展与经济增长的关系。研究表明：混业经营条件下金融发展与经济增长存在面板协整关系。即金融发展与经济增长有长期均衡关系；银行发展水平质量的提高与经济增长有显著正相关关系．然而银行发展水平数量的提高，阻碍经济增长；股票市场与经济增长有显著正相关关系，而且这种关系比较稳定。     

企业的起源与企业自由

在市场经济条件下,经济自由、私有财产权和道德法律基础是相互依赖、彼此共存共荣的关系,而以一定的道德为基础的经济自由有利于市场资源的合理配置,也有利于企业的自主创新与技术进步。作为市场经济活动的主体,企业是以内部分工协作为基础的组织形式,劳动生产率的提高和社会生产力的发展是企业得以产生及其演进的根源所在。现代企业的发展,虽然在一定程度上意味着企业家把原来属于市场的功能内部化了,但是这种内部化是服从于企业的生产功能的,在与政府权利边界的博弈过程中,企业为了谋求更多的经济利益（包括经济自由）,总是尽可能地扩张自己的经济疆域,削蚀、稀释政府的经济规制强度及其领域。企业这种以自我为中心的经济扩张,并不意味着它可以凌驾于政府的经济规制之上,企业享有的经济自由总是相对的,企业在享有经济自由的同时,仍然受制于＂看得见的手＂的约束。     

A New Approach to Quantifying the Impact of Hurricane-Disrupted Oil Refinery Operations Utilizing Secondary Data

This study suggests a new framework that empirically quantifies the temporally disaggregate economic impacts. Utilizing only secondary data, including post-event information on concurrent demand and value-added changes in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the framework is used to identify the technological changes in production that actually occurred after a major disruption. Two methodologies are developed for the framework and data analysis: a quasi-experimental model and an economic model. The Holt–Winters time-series approach is used to estimate normal economic trends under the assumption that the two hurricanes had not occurred, and the results are compared to actual trends. The gaps between the estimated and actual trends represent the direct impacts. We utilized the flexible national interstate economic model to construct a month-to-month supply-side version of the national interstate economic model and measure the total economic impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by month, state and industry, including adaptations. The new framework, which provides estimates of economic impact adaptation process and resilient results, refines the often substantially overstated impacts provided by the application of conventional economic models. The suggested approach can be used to address questions about the effects of time, distance, and industry linkages, and hence the dynamics of conflict activities.     

中国能源消费与经济增长关系实证研究

采用E-G两步法对1978年～2010年间中国能源消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了协整和Granger检验,结果表明,中国能源消费与经济增长之间存在长期的均衡关系,能源消费在一定程度上促进了中国的经济增长,两者间存在着从能源消费到经济增长的单向因果关系,即能源费的增长可以直接导致国内生产总值的增加,并提出了相关政策建议。     

村镇银行对湘西州经济发展影响的实证分析——以湘西长沙银行村镇银行为例

依据湘西长沙银行2011、2012年以及2013年大部分数据探究村镇银行对当地经济发展影响,结果显示:村镇银行金融发展与湘西州经济增长之间存在长期稳定关系,并呈现出对当地经济增长具有一定的促进作用;且金融发展规模的提高会促进经济的增长。但经济增长在显著水平上没有拒绝原假设,说明湘西州经济增长不是金融发展规模扩大、金融结构优化、金融效率提升的原因;甚至村镇银行金融效率对当地经济增长还会产生负面影响。村镇银行的金融结构亟待优化,金融效率亟待提升。届时,不断扩大的金融发展规模才能更好地促进湘西州经济增长。     

Sin and the economic analysis of the pastoral: A class act?

The Pastoral contains a non-Marxist class based non-traditional analysis of sinful acts in economic life. Data on poverty, income distribution, unemployment and economic problems are used to assert the existence of a marginalyzed, economically disenfranchised class, victims of the sinful self-serving actions of individuals influential in economic and political institutions. Economic scarcity, the reality of risk, conflicting policy goals, imperfect economic policy insights, mistaken choices, and the consequences of sinful acts for the sinner are ignored as possible causes of imperfect economic outcomes as the bishops advocate solutions through an expanded agenda of government programs and power.James P. Egan is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Wisconsin — Eau Claire. He was awarded a faculty research sabbatical in 1986.