香港离岸人民币市场与在岸人民币市场汇率之间的关联性研究

本文创新性地构建了由在岸人民币市场即期汇率(CNY)、香港离岸市场人民币即期汇率(CNH)、境外远期无本金交割市场6个月期汇率(NDF6)及1年期汇率(NDF12)、在岸远期6个月期汇率(DF6)及1年期汇率(DF12)组成的人民币汇率系统.然后,运用单位根检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验和GARCH模型等分别从平稳性、协整性、报酬溢出效应和波动溢出效应等方面对人民币汇率系统内的在岸即期汇率、离岸即期汇率、在岸远期汇率和离岸远期汇率之间的关联性进行了实证研究.研究发现,CNH对CNY存在报酬溢出效应,二者之间存在双向的波动溢出效应;CNH、CNY、NDF6和DF6间的关联性可能大于CNH、CNY、NDF12和DF12间的关联性.     

香港人民币离岸市场与在岸市场的汇率联动效应实证研究

人民币国际化进程加速,香港人民币离岸市场作为人民币国际化的桥头堡汇聚了大量的离岸人民币。香港离岸市场成为投机者的天堂,对存在的人民币在岸汇率与离岸汇率之间的汇差进行疯狂的套利活动。本文通过实证研究香港人民币离岸市场与在岸市场的汇率联动效应。     

离岸与在岸人民币市场利率联动效应研究

本文分析了离岸人民币市场与在岸人民币市场利率联动的机制,并运用VAR模型等定量的方法检验了香港离岸人民币市场与在岸人民币市场的联动关系。实证结果表明:离岸与在岸人民币市场的利率联动效应已经初步存在,但存在较明显的单边效应,在岸人民币市场对香港离岸人民币市场有显著的引导关系,反之不成立。据此,本文认为应从提供足够的离岸人民币存量、促进离岸人民币需求从投机转向投资等方面加快离岸人民币市场建设,还应从政策层面逐步放开离岸和在岸人民币市场的利率管制。     

离岸与在岸人民币汇率联动效应研究

随着香港离岸人民币汇率市场的发展,离岸人民币汇率价格体系不断地完善。本文运用Granger因果检验和BEKK-GARCH(1,1)模型,研究了在岸和离岸人民币汇率之间的价格溢出效应和波动溢出效应,结果显示:在岸人民币即期和远期汇率对离岸汇率能够产生较为显著的价格溢出效应和波动溢出效应;NDF汇率对在岸即期和远期汇率有显著地价格溢出效应和波动溢出效应;离岸即期汇率对在岸远期汇率有显著地价格溢出效应,但波动溢出效应较弱;离岸即期汇率对在岸即期汇率未产生价格溢出效应,但波动溢出效应显著。     

811汇改以来离岸人民币和在岸人民币价差研究——人民币与美元汇率逐步脱钩的时代,离岸和在岸价差将何去何从?

本文以2015年8月11日汇改以来离岸和在岸人民币即期汇率价差为研究对象,分析了离岸在岸人民币价差产生的原因、造成离岸在岸人民币价差波动的因素,分析结果表明,在人民币定价权方面,在岸比离岸人民币更具有定价权;同时在中国逐步推进外汇制度改革、人民币与美元汇率逐步脱钩的背景下,在岸与离岸人民币的价差将进一步缩小,离岸和在岸人民币最终将趋向统一。     

离在岸人民币利差与离岸人民币汇率联动关系

随着人民币国际化进程的不断推进,利率市场化与汇率市场化改革也加快进程,离在岸间利差促使套利的发生,利差与汇率之间也存在着一定的波动溢出效应,不同期限品种之间表现出不同的强度。文章将离在岸隔夜、一月期、三月期、六月期、一年期的利差与离岸汇率进行整理,并运用GARCH-BEEK(1,1)模型进行实证分析,发现除了六个月期利差与汇率间没有明显的波动溢出效应外,其余期限品种均体现出不同强度的波动溢出效应。     

人民币境内外汇率差异原因分析

中国人民银行于2015年8月11日正式对外宣布将优化和完善人民币中间报价方法,所以"811汇改"成为我国人民币外汇市场改革进程中的重要举措,能够有效提升在岸银行间外汇市场中间价定价机制和人民币国际化的整个市场化进程。自从我国实施"811汇改"后,人民币离岸与在岸外汇市场之间的汇率呈现出显著的双向波动、汇率价差越来越大的特点。所以,对离、在岸人民币汇差的特点和影响因素的研究非常重要。文章结合理论和实证研究,对人民币离、在岸汇率价差的波动特点,通过建立科学实证模型对汇率价差的影响因素和传导路径等进行实证研究后的结果显示:离岸人民币资金存量对汇率价差具有显著的负相关作用,离、在岸利率价差与汇率价差呈显著正相关。此外,国际金融市场波动、离岸与在岸人民币外汇市场交易主体对汇率的预期、量化后的风险偏好、人民币利率、人民币汇率波动、资本项目管制等因素与离在岸人民币利率价差呈正相关。尤其是全球投资者风险偏好的改变会直接导致汇率价差的反向变动。     

人民币即期汇率和远期汇率关系研究

对人民币汇率的决定理论、汇率形成机制的演进以及各个市场相互之间的引导关系进行了研究。结果表明远期汇率走势反映了即期汇率的走势,离岸市场对于在岸市场具有较强的引导关系,而在岸市场对于离岸市场的引导关系则不是十分显著。最后再结合我国外汇市场的现实情况给出相关的建议。     

人民币离岸和在岸货币市场价格引导关系的实证研究

本文利用2013年6月23日至2019年12月31日的日度数据,通过构建人民币离岸和在岸货币市场利率的VAR模型,通过Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等手段,研究了人民币离岸和在岸货币市场利率的价格引导关系。研究发现,人民币离岸和在岸货币市场利率之间存在长期稳定的关系,但不存在显著的引导关系,主要是由于离岸和在岸市场割裂所致。由此,本文提出了发展离岸货币市场、增强在岸货币市场定价权的政策建议。     

人民币汇率波动的股票价格效应研究

本文以人民币兑美元汇率RMB/USD及人民币兑澳元汇率RMB/AUD与上证综合指数、深圳成分指数及三支个股每日收盘价为样本,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验等方法,分析了2005年汇率改革后人民币汇率波动对股票价格走势的影响。研究发现,人民币兑美元汇率及人民币兑澳元汇率与股票价格之间均存在长期均衡的协整关系;股票价格与RMB/USD关系显著且存在双向因果关系,而对RMB/AUD反应显著但二者之间不存在双向因果关系;股票价格对人民币汇率波动的敏感度也因受不同行业因子的影响而变化。     

Public Financial Expenditure——A Reflection of the Livelihood Improvement

In recent years.China's public finance put social construction high on the agenda and attaches more importance on livelihood insurance and improvement.The 2003-2007 public financial expenditure reflects a fact that the government isputting more emphasis on livelihood andissues concerning the people.     

Voices from the MPC and CPPCC

"Crucial for economic growth.energy utilization has its role in all economic sectors and every aspect of people's daily life.Now we are in dire need of a new profession,namely energy manager.We not only need to have passion and responsibility,but also a scientific approach to conserve energy and cut emissions.APpropriate legislation should be in place.and a special profession should be introduced to ensure the implementation of these laws and regulations."     

Slowdown Trade Surplus Growth

According to Ma Kai＇s economic planning report submitted to the NPC session on March 5th,（Ma Kai is the Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission）,the government has listed the slowdown in trade surplus growth and the steady expansion of external investment as major tasks for 2008.     

Ouyang Riping： A Hero Besides Entrepreneur

A bout fifty years ago. a baby＇s cry broke the sky of quietness, in a small and beautiful town of Hunan province, which surroundcd by green hills and clear water. Though his .birth brought his family great happiness and hope just as any new life, nobody knew that the little boy would get great achievement when he grow up. even start his business oversea, and earn international honor. Let＇s share with you the entrepreneur Ouyang Riping＇s story, which may insights thcsc people who want to succeed and complete oneself in favorite condition or adversity rather leave things to so-called fate.     

Belarus, A Chinese Fort in Europe

＂In recent years, we＇ve found increasing interest from Chinese investors in the Belarus economy. Please let China know, Belarus is always ready to be a true friend to China. We have built a fort in Europe for China,＂ the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko told Zhou Xiaochuan, President of the Bank of China, during his visit to the capital of Minsk, on January 8th, he expressed his high praise and firm confidence in the development of Sino-Belarusian relations.     

What＇s Behind Spring Festival？

Similar to what the Christmas Day means for the westerners,the Spring Festival is the most important celebration for Chinese people.This big event according to Chinese traditional lunar calendar relaxes and pleases the whole country as the happiest gathering time of the year.National-wide crusade for going back home,too-difficult-to-get train tickets,generous family-going-out shopping,Miaohui laundering,New Year Eve reunion dinner,visiting friends and relatives,watching annual TV gala......each piece of clue reminds us of the smell of Chinese Spring Festival.     

KEY WDRDS for Foreign Investment in China

FDI(Foreign Direct Investment),a component of a country's national financlal accounts,is investment of foreign assets into domestic structures,equipment,and organizations.It does not include foreign investment into the stock markets,concession and subcontract.FDI iS thought to be more useful to a country than investments in the equity of its companies because equity investments are potentially "hot money"which can leave at the first sign of trouble,whereas FDI is durable and generally useful whether things go well or badly.     

Brown＇s Blossom in Britain-China

The overall strategic relationship between U.K. and China is ＂better than ever＂, China- Britain relations have maintained good momentum, with increased high-level exchanges and the reinforcement of strategic mutual trust, with more room for growth in the future.     

Challenge and Opportunity Go Hand in Hand——What Global Economic Agitation Brings to the China's Economy?

Domino effects of the global finance agitation As the origin of the subprime crisis,US financial institutions lost USS45 billion last year,accounted for over half of the total US,EU & Japan loss.Since January 15th,Chtigroup released its financial statement of the 4th quarter,showing a net deficit of USS9.83 billion,which marked the hisoric high of its quarterly deficit.     

Consumption, New Protagonist in 2007 GDP

Not long ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released its 2007 Macro Economy Index. Social consumption retail sales reached RMB 8.9 billion, increased by 16.8 percent over the previous year, or 3.1 percentage points higher; the whole investment in social fixed assets was valued RMB 13.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24.8 percent, that is 0.9 percentage points higher; and trade surplus amounted to RMB 24.7 billion, rising by 47.7 percent compared with the same period last year, 26.3 percentage points falling over the increasing speed last year. According to preliminary estimates, GDP for the year was RMB 24.67 trillion, up by 11.4 percent from the previous year,